a revolution in american agriculture - ksla | lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources....

57
Center for Crops Utilization Research Larry Johnson Director, Center for Crops Utilization Research Director, BioCentury Research Farm The Bioeconomy A Revolution in American Agriculture

Upload: others

Post on 21-Jul-2020

2 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Center for Crops Utilization Research

Larry Johnson

Director, Center for Crops Utilization Research

Director, BioCentury Research Farm

The Bioeconomy A Revolution in American Agriculture

Page 2: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

What is the Bioeconomy?

The bioeconomy is the way society will

obtain vital sources of carbon and energy, in

the process dramatically reduce our

dependence on non-renewable resources.

Agriculture will make this transformation

possible by providing biorenewable

resources to produce biofuels and biobased

products.

Page 3: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Motivation for a Bioeconomy

• Excess agricultural production – Especially in U.S., but many countries are

becoming self sufficient in food production

• Environmental quality – Local and regional (smog, acid rain, waste

disposal)

– Global climate change

• National security – Reduced reliance on imports

• Rural development – Rural economies are not thriving in many

parts of the world

• High petroleum prices – Now makes economic sense Source: USDA NRCS

Page 4: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

New Realities in Corn and Petroleum Prices

June 28, 2008

$7.88/bu

Fall, 2011

$95-105/brl

Fall, 2011

$6.00-6.35/bu

June 28, 2008

$147/brl

Page 5: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Relative Prices of Petroleum to

Corn have Changed

Fall 2011

$100/brl ÷ $6.00/bu = 17 bu/brl

Page 6: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Ethanol Plants

203 operating

11 under construction

Expanding/New construction

Currently in production

Map as of May 2008, data as of May 2010

Data from Renewable Fuels Association

Page 7: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

12 billion gal = 4.3 billion bu

4.3 billion bu out of a 13 billion bu

harvest = 33% of crop

US Ethanol Production

Est. 12 billion gal in 2010;

we have 14 billion gal capacity

Page 8: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Corn Utilization More than one-half of

Iowa corn is converted

to ethanol

Page 9: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Provisions of the 2007 Energy

Independence & Security Act

Page 10: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Any renewable fuel achieving 50% reduction in life-cycle

GHG emissions from the petroleum baseline, and is not

derived from corn starch. 21 billion gallons of advanced

biofuels are to be used in US fuel supply. Includes:

• Ethanol from biomass

• Biodiesel (methyl esters)

• Biobutanol

• Green diesel (hydroprocessed)

• Biopropanol

• Pyrolysis oil

• Fischer Tropsch bio-derived diesel

• Bio-derived synthetic paraffinic kerosene (bio jet fuel)

• Biomass-based dimethyl ether

• Renewable diesel (thermal depolymerization)

Advanced Biofuel

Page 11: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Biofuels Have

Endured Many Charges • Negative energy balance

• Little impact on fuel consumption

• Not enough corn and soybeans

• Corn and soybean prices are rising

• Food vs fuel, we are starving the world

• Ethanol uses too much water

• Rain forests are being destroyed

• New land brought into production exacerbates carbon emissions

• Depleting CRP and wildlife habitat

• Ethanol is unsustainable

• Ethanol producers are just getting rich

Page 12: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Corn Ethanol Profitability

Data provided by C. Hart, CARD, ISU

Page 13: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

10 Key Messages

Message 1

Science and engineering will make

biofuels more cost effective.

Page 14: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Ethanol has a positive (30%) renewable fuel-to-fossil energy gain –

But we can do better!

Adapted from Wang (2005)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year of Publication

En

erg

y R

ati

o

Chambers et al.

Weinblatt et al. Ho

Marland & Turnhollow

Delucchi Shapouri et al.

Pimentel

Keeney & DeLuca

Lorenz & Morris Agri Canada

Wang et al.

Pimentel

Shapouri et al. Kim & Dale Graboski

Wang

Pimentel

Patzek

Shapouri et al.

NR Canada

Kim & Dale

Pimentel & Patzek

Average of unrelated studies = 1.3

Page 15: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Modern

power

plant

30%

Gasoline

84%

Energy Efficiency of Oil

Refining and Electric Power

Adapted from: RBAEF Project (Dartmouth) and R. Anex (ISU)

Early

refining

20%

Energy value

solid < gas < liquid < electricity

Coal $1/106 BTU

Natural gas $12/106 BTU

Gasoline $23/106 BTU

Electricity $2,700/106 BTU

Not all BTUs are equal!

Page 16: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Source: R. Wisner, Iowa State University

Dry-Grind Ethanol Yields

(industry average)

Page 17: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Many Opportunities to Advance Grain-based Ethanol

Debran (ethanol) and degerm (oil, pharmaceuticals), better co-product for poultry and swine; CO2 screw pressing; corn germ protein food ingredients

Eliminate by using raw starch (ultrasonics, new hybrids, ozonation)

New enzymes (more complete hydrolysis)

Expanding and extraction (biodiesel, biolubricants, neutraceuticals)

De-emulsification, 3-phase centrifugation (oil)

Fungal fermentation (feed, water recycle)

New hybrids (more yield, easier processing, better co-products)

CO2 screw pressing, algae biodiesel and

nutraceuticals No-distillation fermentation

Biocomposites

Zein extraction

Page 18: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Message 2

U.S. food has been and still is inexpensive.

It is not about food vs fuel.

Page 19: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Expenditures of

Disposable Income for Food

Food

23.5%

Food

9.8%

1947 2007

All other

77.5% All other

91.2%

Page 20: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

US Spending on Food vs. Gasoline

Source: Newsweek, July 21, 2008

Page 21: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Source Cost Savings

from Ethanol

USDA/DoE 20 – 35 cents

per gallon

CARD

Iowa State

University

29 – 40 cents

per gallon

Merrill Lynch 50 cents per

gallon

Ethanol Effect on Gasoline Prices

Page 22: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Food and Fuel not Food vs Fuel

Source: USDA and ISU statistics; June 2008.

Gasoline savings per household due to

ethanol (29 to 40¢/gal): $210 to $526 Fuel

Net impact of ethanol on household spending:

$204 to $511

Added cost to food due to impact of ethanol

on food inflation: $6 to $15 Food

Page 23: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Message 3

Farmers deserve a larger share of food and

fuel dollars.

Page 24: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Cost of Corn in Corn Flakes • Corn

represents

13¢ of a

$3.25 box of

corn flakes

when corn

costs

$7.00/bu

• Probably

less than

energy

costs Source: ISU Extension

Page 25: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Cost of Corn as Percent of Total Retail, Hide, and Offal Value

Source: J. Lawrence, Iowa State University

Page 26: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

0

50

100

150

200

250

1

2

3

4

5

6

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

19

78

1980

19

82

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

20

00

2002

20

04

2006

U.S

. C

on

su

mer

Pri

ce In

dex

Co

rn (

$ p

er

Bu

sh

el)

Corn Consumer Price Index

Corn Prices versus

Consumer Price Index

Corn should be priced at $9.25/bu!

Page 27: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Message 4

Biotechnology will increase crop

yields and enable easier processing.

Page 28: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Technology Advances Corn Yields

Page 29: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Is 300 bu/A

possible –

twice today’s

corn yield?

Page 30: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Opportunities for Biotechnology

to Improve Biodiesel

• Design soybeans to produce ready-

made biodiesel and biolubricants with

enhanced performance

• Issues:

– cost of conversion

– oxidative stability

– cold tolerance

Page 31: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Triacylglycerol

+ Glycerol

Expensive

chemistry Byproduct

Monoacyl

ester

Jojoba genes

Monoacyl esters Branched chain fatty acids

Bacterial genes

Branched chain mono-esters

Enhanced Biodiesel Feedstock

Ready-made fuel, cold tolerant, oxidatively stable

Page 32: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Message 5

Corn grain alone cannot meet the US

mandate – cellulosic ethanol will be needed.

Page 33: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

How Can We Meet US Motor Fuel Demand?

No single solution, answer requires multiple approaches!

36 billion gal goal by 2022

Page 34: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

• Large underutilized resource.

• Enzyme conversion to fermentable sugars is difficult.

• One plant in Canada producing fuel ethanol.

• DOE funded 27 pilot, demonstration and commercial scale plants

Fuel Ethanol and Other Fermentation

Products from Cellulosic Biomass

Page 35: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

How Much Biomass

Could Be Produced?

• Total potential in

U.S. is in excess

of 1.3 billion tons

(about 21 EJ)

• Could supply

21% of U.S.

energy demand,

or

• 66% of U.S.

transportation

fuel

U.S. Biomass Potential

(million tons)

47132

43

58

55

389

343

7996

Fuel wood

Milling residues

Urban wood residues

Logging residues

Forest thinning

Crop residues

Dedicated crops

Grains for biofuels

Ag processing residues &

manure

Page 36: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Poet and DuPont

are building ligno-

cellulose-to-

ethanol plants in

Iowa

Gen 1

Gen 2

Gen 3

Page 37: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Message 6

Do not get wedded to today’s ethanol and

biodiesel – there may be better biofuels.

Page 38: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Automobile Range for Gasoline &

Ethanol Blends (17-gal fuel tank)

0 100 200 300 400 500

Gasoline

E-10

E-85

E-100

Miles

75,400

BTU/Gal

81,600

BTU/Gal

112,500

BTU/Gal

116,600

BTU/Gal

16.2 mpg 275

297

410

425

17.5 mpg

24.1 mpg

25.0 mpg

Not used for cars in the U.S.

Low energy value and hygroscopic nature make transportation

challenging

Page 39: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Biofuel Pathways from Biomass

Adapted from Virent Energy Systems (2010)

Page 40: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Message 7 It is not just about ethanol,

its about biorefineries.

Page 41: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

A Vision for Biorefineries

Biorefinery: Cluster of biobased industries

producing chemicals, fuels, power, products

and materials.

Shifts production

between products

depending on

market prices to

maximize profits.

Page 42: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Eddyville, IA & Blair, NE –

First-generation Biorefineries

• Cargill – starch, sweeteners,

ethanol, lactic acid, PLA,

citric acid

• Heartland Lysine – lysine

• Aginomoto – MSG

Page 43: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

How a Biorefinery Will Operate

Energy Motor Fuels Chemicals Biobased Products Biomaterials

Conversion

Thermochemical Biological Chemical

Fractionation

Fiber Starch Oil Protein

Page 44: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Message 8

Biofuels provide feedstock for value-added

industrial chemicals and biobased products.

Anything you can make from petroleum,

you can make from crops – its a matter of

economics!

Page 45: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Where the Value Is

More value

is created

from the 3%

used for

industrial

chemicals

than the

71% used

for fuel.

Page 46: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Alcohols Ethanol, butanol, isopropanol

Organic acids

Acetic, citric, lactic, gluconic, malic,

succinic, fumaric, propionic, butyric,

ketogluconic, itaconic, kojic

Ketones Acetone, glucosone

Polyols 2,3 butanediol, 1,3 butanediol,

glycerol, mannitol, arabinitol

Biopolymers Xanthan, pullulan, alginate

Potential Fermentation Products from Cornstarch

Page 47: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

CH3CH2OH

CH2 = CH2 CH3CHO CH3CO2H

Ethyl benzene

Ethyl bromide

Ethyl chloride

Ethyl ether

Ethlyene chlorohydrin

Ethlyene diamine

Ethlyene glylcol

Ethyleneimine

Ethylene oxide

Diethyl ketone

Diethylene glycol

Glycol ethers, esters

MEA, DEA, TEA

Vinyl acetate

Polymers, copolyers

Acetic acid

Acetic anhydride

Aldo products

Butyl acetate

Butylaldehyde

Chloral

Ethyleneimine

Pyridines

Acetamide

Acetanilde

Acetyl chloride

Acetic anhydride

Dimethyl acetamide

Cellulose acetates

Esters

Fermentation Products Become

Platform Chemicals

Page 48: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Plastics Henry Ford (Ford Motor Co.) developed

soy protein plastics but lacked the

durability needed for automobile

applications.

Compostable soy

plastics

Page 49: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Textiles

Henry Ford (Ford Motor Co.) developed

soy protein textiles but did not measure

up to performance of synthetic fibers.

PLA shirt Soybean suit

Page 50: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Message 9

Integrate livestock production with biorefineries

to enhance food and fuel supplies.

Page 51: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Integrate Animal Agriculture into Biorefineries and Retain a Robust

Livestock Industry

• Inevitable that some best uses for co-products will be feed.

• Biorefineries will need a healthy livestock industry.

• Marketing wet

DDGS saves processing energy but only practical within short distances.

Page 52: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Source: FAPRI

Learning How to Substitute DDGS for Corn in Livestock Rations

One-third of grain mass is DDGS,

so ethanol production actually uses

22% of crop. Not 33%.

2000 2004 2008

Page 53: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Message 10 The bioeconomy must be done in a sustainable

way – not replace unsustainable petroleum

production with another unsustainable system.

Page 54: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

Perennial Cover Crops

Develop perennial cover

crops that are temporally

and spatially compatible

with row crops

Biomass Crop Rotations

Develop long and

short-term corn-biomass

crop rotations and strips

that stabilize soil

New Crop Development

Develop highly productive

alternative bioenergy crops

Today’s Corn

Production is Unsustainable1

1 Professor Kendall Lamkey, Chair, Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University

Page 55: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

ISU BioCentury Research Farm – First Integrated

Biomass Production and Processing Facility

First research biorefinery

Page 56: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

We are in the midst

of the greatest

changes in

agriculture since

mechanization and

hybrid corn – a

REVOLUTION!

Those of us in the

Midwest US are at

the EPICENTER!

Page 57: A Revolution in American Agriculture - KSLA | Lantbrukdependence on non-renewable resources. Agriculture will make this transformation possible by providing biorenewable resources

The Bioeconomy Will science make it a good revolution?

YES, but there is plenty work to be done!

One-use carbon Reusable carbon