a review of the 2016 global kidnap risk environment · a review of the 2016 global kidnap risk...

A Review of the 2016 Global Kidnap Risk Environment

Crisis Monitor / 4th Quarter Report 2016

2Crisis Monitor / Q4 Report 2016

> Table of Contents > Director’s Note > Regional Analysis > Special Focus > Contact Us

Americas

Europe

Africa

Middle East

Asia

> At a Glance


top ten hotspots but moved into third and fifth place respectively. Piracy in the coastal waters of Nigeria and business travellers targeted by criminals in the city of Sabah attributed to the worsening kidnap risk climate.

In contrast, Syria and Iraq experienced a considerable reduction in foreigner kidnappings, with a lower number of journalists and aid workers targeted in 2016. In this context, it is important to note that despite fewer kidnappings, the prospect of long-duration confinement remains unambiguous in countries afflicted by internal conflict. It is not surprising then that Afghanistan, Somalia, and Syria account for some of the longest captivity periods this year.

Also noticeable over the last year is the significant reduction in the number of victims killed by their kidnappers. Notwithstanding the Jihadist-inspired hostage sieges in Burkina Faso and Bangladesh, which resulted in the death of 36 foreigners, Unity recorded a 130 percent drop in the killing of captives.

Militants murdered fewer victims than criminals in 2016 with Libyan militias responsible for the death of more detainees than any other kidnapping group across the globe. Captives were also killed in Mexico, Venezuela,

Greece, Libya, Thailand, and Turkey, although the geographical extent of killings diminished from 18 countries in 2015 to 12 this year. From a regional perspective, Africa accounted for the greatest number of deaths from kidnapping incidents, with the Americas in second place.

To find out where kidnapping groups are most deadly, Unity has included its ‘Security and Kidnap Risk Map 2016’ as a guide to identifying the most dangerous places in the world for work and travel.

> Director’s Note

“There was a quarter-on-quarter decrease in foreigner kidnappings in 2016, with the overall number of incidents diminishing by 38 percent compared to 2015.”

Paul AllumDirector – IntelligenceUnity Resources Group

This edition of the Crisis Monitor provides a detailed analysis of the prevailing trends in foreigner kidnapping events in 2016, with a regional perspective of security-related issues in the fourth quarter.

There was a quarter-on-quarter decrease in foreigner kidnappings in 2016, with the overall number of incidents diminishing by 38 percent compared to 2015.

Despite fewer attacks, kidnapping data from first place Mexico and second place Libya eclipsed the total number of abductions in Unity’s top ten hotspots. Although highly concentrated in these two countries (for a second successive year) a steady rise in kidnapping activities was experienced in the other top ten countries including the Philippines, Burkina Faso, Bangladesh, and Brazil.

The Gulf of Guinea and Malaysia were Unity’s highest movers. Both countries had been previously ranked outside the

> At a Glance> Director’s Note > Regional Analysis > Special Focus > Contact UsAmericasEuropeAfricaMiddle EastAsia


> At a Glance

Most Affected Regionin Q4

Most Affected Nationality in Q4

Most Targeted Group in Q4

Americas 45%

Africa 31%

Asia 18%

Middle East 6%

Top 10 Foreigner Kidnapping Hotspots in Q4

Highest Ransom Payments (P) and Demands (D) in Q4

Mexico 38

Libya 22

Philippines 13

Afghanistan 4

Gulf of Guinea 3

Jordan 3

Malaysia 3

Colombia 3

South Sudan 2

Brazil 2

Honduran 21

Guatemalan 9

Bangladeshi 7

Salvadorian 6

Vietnamese 6

Migrants 38

Maritime 14

Businesspeople 10

Tourists 9

Aid Workers 8

$10 million USD (D) Philippines German Tourist

$6 million USD (D) Brazil Portuguese Businessman

$4.4 million USD (D) LibyaTwo Italian and One Canadian Construction Workers

$1.5 million USD (P) Somalia 22 East Asian Maritime Crew

$723,000 USD (D) South Africa Bangladeshi Businessman


>

Country Security Rating INSIGNIFICANT LOW MEDIUM HIGH EXTREME

Fig 2. Regional Risk Map


> Regional Analysis

73%

7%

6%

5%

5%

2%

1%

1%

MEXICO

COLOMBIA

BRAZIL

HONDURAS

PANAMA

ECUADOR, PERU

VENEZUELA

URUGUAY

The Americas accounted for 45 percent of global kidnappings this quarter, outranking Africa as the worst affected region. Mexico reclaimed its first place ranking after being supplanted by Brazil in the last quarter.

Americas

> Official figures show that 13 Mexican states were subjected to an increase in kidnappings during 2016, while the country-wide homicide numbers for 2015 were overshadowed by October 2016. Veracruz and the State of Mexico witnessed the largest rise in abductions, with violence in Veracruz particularly egregious this quarter. Over a third of recorded extortion incidents resulting in a fatality occurred in Veracruz in Q4, while the dangers of overland travel in the state were represented by violent carjackings against civilian vehicles along the highways 150D and 145D.

> Meanwhile, Colombia jumped three places to the region’s second most affected country this quarter, with both organised criminals and the guerrilla National Liberation Army (ELN) responsible for kidnapping tourists and a mining worker. The Colombian government has postponed peace negotiations with the ELN, demanding the release of a politician the group still holds in Choco as a precondition to further talks. The captivity of this official exposes a potential struggle among ELN leadership to unite its

forces behind a cessation of hostilities. The warring faction in Choco may represent a splinter group attempting to use the victim as political leverage or to maintain a source of revenue through a ransom payment. Meanwhile, ELN released a local businessman against an unspecified ransom after holding him for nine months in Maicao.

> Brazil experienced an unusually high ransom demand in Q4, following the abduction of a Portuguese businessman held by criminals in Campinas for a month before the authorities rescued him. The captors had demanded $6 million USD for his release. Ransom demands range from $200,000 to $500,000 USD in Brazil, with a median average of $40,000 to $100,000 USD commonly paid for victims.

> Fifty percent of statistics related to the abduction of business travellers can be traced to the Americas, where Chinese, Portuguese, and Austrians were mostly targeted. The average ransom payment for victims in this category was $90,000 USD this quarter.

Fig 1. Percentage Kidnapping Incidents Q4 2016

2 Countries inside Unity’s top ten global kidnapping hotspots

Kidnap flashpoint areas: Choco (Colombia), Chiapas (Mexico)

$6 million USD demanded for a Portuguese businessperson rescued after 31 days

Most targeted groups: Migrants and Businesspeople


>




> Regional AnalysisEurope

The kidnap risk in Europe is insignificant; however European travellers remain at risk abroad, particularly in the Africa region. The largest ransom demand in Q4 was for a German tourist held in the Philippines by a militant group seeking $10 million USD for his release.

> Kidnap for ransom is an anomaly in Europe, although Unity recorded eight incidents in 2016, one less than the previous year, with nearly all cases taking place in Greece and Spain.

> The president of a five-star hotel in Cannes, on the French Rivera, was forced from her vehicle and abducted near her residence in Nice in Q4. The kidnappers contacted her family within hours to demand a ransom, but she was found by the police 48 hours later.

> Europeans accounted for 14 percent of foreigner abductions this quarter. The majority were targeted in the Africa region, predominantly by pirates and militant groups. British and Russian nationals were the most targeted citizens, while tourists and business travellers comprised nearly half of the victims, followed by maritime workers.

> Two Europeans died at the hands of their captors in Q4, one by suspected militants in Libya and the other by the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) in the Philippines. ASG killed their victim during an abduction attempt in November; her partner remains in

captivity.

> Meanwhile two Italian tourists in Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro were attacked by criminals after entering a slum following misguided GPS navigation. One was killed and the other was released unharmed.

> Europeans accounted for 13 percent of global foreigner kidnapping statistics in 2016, and the most targeted industry was maritime crew, followed by business travellers and tourists. Nearly a quarter of Europeans targeted abroad in kidnap for ransom events were killed by their captors. This unusually high number of deaths is the result of two mass hostage sieges perpetrated by Al Qaeda affiliate Al Murabitoun in Burkina Faso and the Islamic State in Bangladesh. The remaining 25 percent were killed by criminals in Venezuela, Mexico, and Thailand, as well as by the ASG in the Philippines.

> The highest ransom payment for European captives abroad in 2016 was $11 million USD for three Spanish aid workers who spent ten months in jihadist custody in Syria.

Fig 1. Europeans abducted according to region in 2016


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Americas Middle East Africa Asia

>




> Regional Analysis

61%9%

5%

5%

5%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

LIBYA

GULF OF GUINEA

SOUTH SUDAN

SUDAN

TANZANIA

MALI

MOZAMBIQUE

NIGER

NIGERIA

SOUTH AFRICA

Africa

> Libyan armed forces defeated the Islamic State in December, reducing the threat of kidnapping in the north-central area of the country. The North African state however still accounted for the greatest number of incidents in the region. Criminal and militia groups were responsible for nearly all of the attacks, and some victims were tortured in captivity.

> Jihadist groups affiliated with Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb have demonstrated a renewed mobility across North African borders, launching roughly 260 attacks over five countries in 2016, compared to 106 in 2015, according to data compiled by the Long War Journal.

> Militants have further intensified their kidnapping activities in the Sahel and Sahara, targeting aid workers and construction labourers in remote parts of Mali, Niger and Libya. At least seven Westerners remain in militant captivity in the area, two of whom were abducted in 2011, while the others were taken in the course of the last 15

months.

> Piracy diminished in the coastal waters of West Africa this quarter, despite a steady increase in attacks throughout 2016. Unity recorded two incidents in Nigeria’s territorial waters in November, both of which resulted in the kidnapping of senior crew by armed criminal gangs. The victims were held on average for three weeks before being released against undisclosed ransom payments.

> Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea was overshadowed by the growing threat posed by the Niger Delta Avengers. The militant group based in Nigeria’s Delta region launched a military campaign against international oil facilities and infrastructure that grew in severity and frequency of attacks throughout 2016. A ceasefire agreement and amnesty for former militants suppressed violence in the region, but with the government not delivering on the Avengers’ political demands, the group has threatened to resume activities in 2017.

Africa witnessed a 60 percent reduction in foreigner kidnappings compared to last quarter. Libya and the Gulf of Guinea contributed to the greatest decrease in incidents. Two-thirds of aid workers targeted this quarter were captured by militants in West Africa and South Sudan.


4 Countries inside Unity’s top ten global kidnapping hotspots

Kidnap flashpoint areas: Tripoli and Sebha (Libya)

22 East Asian maritime crew released after 4 years 7 months captivity in Somalia

8 were kidnapped by militants in Libya, Mali, Niger, and South Sudan


>




> Regional AnalysisMiddle East

> Half of the foreign kidnap victims were western nationals this quarter, the majority of whom remain in militant custody. The rest were Asian and regional nationals. On average, Westerners held by militants in the Middle East spend over a year in detention, with the longest captivity period for 2016 recorded in Syria where a US journalist was released after three years and seven months.

> A third of this quarter’s abductions were perpetrated by criminals in Lebanon and Iraq, the remaining were taken by militants. In one criminal kidnapping event, a ransom of $10,600 USD was paid for a Syrian national who was held in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley for three weeks.

> Payments for regional and local nationals held by criminals usually don’t exceed $100,000 USD, however ransoms for wealthy businesspeople from the region, particularly the Gulf states, generally range between $300,000-$500,000 USD and can reach up to $1 million USD.

> The security situation in Turkey has

deteriorated in 2016 following an attempted coup in July, and an upsurge in terror attacks resulting from Ankara's military campaign against the Islamic State and Kurdish separatist groups in Syria. Consequently, Turkey's country risk rating has worsened from medium to HIGH RISK on Unity's security and kidnap risk map 2017.

> A shooting claimed by the Islamic State that left 39 people including 27 foreigners dead at a popular nightclub in Istanbul on New Year’s Eve, underscores the invasive and intractable threat posed by terrorists in Turkey’s main cities.

> The Islamic State attacked a tourist site killing ten, including a Canadian tourist, in Jordan’s southern city of Karak in December. The Hashemite Kingdom is being overstretched by multiple threats including the rise of Jihadist groups and simmering unrest among its religious hardliners in the north of the country. Despite armed conflict raging across its borders in Iraq and Syria, Jordan remains a bastion of stability in the region.

The Middle East experienced a marginal quarter-on-quarter increase in foreigner kidnappings, although incidents in the traditional hotspots of Syria, Iraq and Yemen remain inconsequential as a result of the current conflict in the region.


Country inside Unity’s top ten global kidnapping hotspots

Militants killed a Westerner in Jordan

American victim released by Houthis in Yemen after 1 year and 7 months in captivity

Most targeted group: Tourists

1

44%

14%

14%

14%

14%

JORDAN

YEMEN

LEBANON

SYRIA

IRAQ





> Regional Analysis

62%

19%

14%

5%

PHILIPPINES

AFGHANISTAN

MALAYSIA

THAILAND

Asia

> A decrease in piracy attacks between the Malaysian, Philippines, and Indonesian waters demonstrates the effectiveness of the tripartite anti-piracy operation in the region.

> Despite an improving security climate out at sea, ASG remains operationally resilient in the coastal waters close to its core operational base in the southern Philippines. The group kidnapped a German sailor from his yacht in Tawi-Tawi after fatally shooting his partner in the attack. A ransom of $10 million USD was made, which is this quarter’s largest demand. ASG still holds captive 19 South East Asian sailors and one Dutch birdwatcher.

> A third of all tourists kidnapped across the globe in Q4 were targeted in the Asia region, particularly in the Philippines and Thailand. Business travellers were also targeted in the Philippines. In one incident, criminals demanded $100,700 USD for the release of a South Korean executive. His family paid the full ransom demand after several weeks of negotiations, but he remains in captivity with the

assailants seeking another $90,700 USD for his release. Elsewhere, a Chinese businessperson was abducted and held for 24 hours in Manila before he was released against a ransom payment of $20,500 USD.

> The death of two US military servicemen and two US contractors, and injury to 17 others following a suicide bombing against Bagram Airbase to the north of the capital Kabul in November was the deadliest attack against American forces in Afghanistan in over a year. The Taliban claimed responsibility. The militant group is consolidating its grip on the southern Afghan provinces and has increased attacks against government and western targets, including a suicide car bombing against the German Consulate in Balkh in November.

> An Australian aid worker was kidnapped in Kabul’s Qala e Fatullaharea this quarter, which was the second abduction of an Australian aid worker in 2016. Further, a Spanish aid worker was targeted in Kunduz, and remains in the hands of unknown perpetrators.

Asia experienced a 60 percent decrease in foreigner abductions compared to Q3. This was characterized by a downturn in piracy activity off the Malaysian coast. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) stepped up attacks, kidnapping 20 percent more victims compared to the previous quarter.


3Countries inside Unity’s top ten global kidnapping hotspots

Kidnap flashpoint areas: Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Basilan (Philippines)

13 were kidnapped by militants in the Philippines and Malaysia

$10 million USD ransom demand made for a German tourist in the Philippines



> Special FocusQ4 2016

A Review of the 2016 Global Kidnap Risk Environment> There was a 38 percent reduction in

global foreigner kidnapping figures in 2016 compared to 2015. In part, this can be explained by fewer mass kidnappings in Libya, where the Islamic State militant group as the main perpetrators were dislodged from their former stronghold in Sirte by pro-government forces. Nevertheless, Libya still ranks second place in Unity’s top ten kidnap hotspots, with Tripoli and the south-western tribal region particularly affected.

> The South China Sea experienced an improved security climate with ships targeted closer to the coastal waters of Malaysia and the Philippines. Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) abducted at least fifty seafarers in 2016, with a third of those remaining in captivity at the time of writing. On average, victims held by ASG spent five to six months in custody, while the group received three ransom payments over a million USD, making them this year’s top earners alongside Syria’s militant group Jabhat Fateh Al-Sham.

> The threat of piracy has risen sharply in the Gulf of Guinea with oil bunkering and the abduction of maritime crew, in particular, high-

ranking officers and engineers, pushing the area from tenth in 2015 to third place in Unity’s global kidnapping figures. Both pirates and militants from the Niger Delta were to blame.

> A surge in terror attacks across Africa and Asia drew attention to the threat posed by the Islamic State and Al Qaeda outside their core terrain in the Middle East. The jihadist movements are attempting to showcase their operational reach and take advantage of poor security conditions in areas frequented by foreign travellers. A café siege in Bangladesh and an armed assault on an international hotel in Burkina Faso suggest that 2017 will see both groups conducting high-profile attacks and kidnappings to raise funds and attract new recruits.

> AQIM and its affiliates were more active in 2016, kidnapping five foreigners across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, compared to one in 2015 (notwithstanding mass hostage takings). All remain in captivity except for an Australian doctor who was taken alongside her husband and subsequently released after three weeks. Militants operating in the Sahel and Sahara region have kidnapped at least 50 foreigners since 2008, and in most cases, the captivity periods have exceeded six months, while average ransom payments remain in the millions of dollars.


Migrants39%

Maritime28%

Non-Skilled Workers

15%

Business-people

10%

Tourists8%

Americas38%

Africa37%

Asia20%

Middle East4%

Europe1%

Fig 1. 2016 Top 5 Groups Targeted

Fig 2. 2016 Regional Breakdown


> Special FocusQ4 2016

> 2016 witnessed an increase in militant kidnappings for ransom, rather than for political and propaganda purposes, with 79 percent of all ransom demands and payments above $1million USD attributed to militants, compared to just 53 percent in 2015. Hence the prospect of an early release or low ransom payment of victims still in militant custody remains slim.

> Seven percent of foreign kidnap victims were killed in 2016, and militants were responsible for the majority of those. This figure is virtually unchanged from 2015, because of violent hostage sieges conducted by Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and its offshoot Al Murabitoun in North Africa, as well as Islamic State affiliates in Libya and Bangladesh.

> This is the first year since 2013 when Unity began collecting data that more than one country of the Americas is among the yearly top ten kidnapping hotspots. Mexico has moved up one place each year and claimed the number one hotspot in 2016. Brazil entered the rankings in tenth place. Organized criminals took advantage of foreign travellers visiting Rio de Janeiro during the Olympic Games, with express kidnappings spiking across the city in the month of August.

> Unity recorded a 50 percent rise in the targeting of business travellers in 2016, while the abduction of global tourists has more than doubled since 2015. Mexico and Brazil were among the

most dangerous countries for tourists, and more than half of the victims were Western nationals. Meanwhile, the Asia region posed the greatest threat to business travellers with Bangladesh and the Philippines grouped as the worst affected countries.

> The majority of victims were released against ransom payments ranging in the hundreds of thousands of USD and held no longer than a month in captivity. In contrast, tourists abducted by armed groups tend to spend extended periods in captivity. The Taliban in Afghanistan released a Canadian tourist after five years, while ASG in the Philippines held a Norwegian tourist for one year, and reportedly released him against a $1 million USD ransom payment.


5 Highest Ransom Payments Reported in 2016

$11 million USD Syria 3 Spanish Journalists

$2 million USD Philippines 4 Malaysian Maritime

$1.5 million USD Somalia 22 East Asian Maritime

$1 million USD Philippines Norwegian Tourist

$1 million USD Philippines 10 Indonesian Maritime

Foreigner Kidnapping Hotspots

Rank 2016 2015

1 Mexico Libya

2 Libya Mexico

3 Gulf of Guinea S. China Sea

4 Philippines Mali

5 Malaysia Iraq

6 Burkina Faso Somalia

7 Afghanistan Sudan

8 Bangladesh Nigeria

9 Nigeria Afghanistan

10 Brazil Gulf of Guinea

0 100 200 300

Americas

Mid East

Asia

Africa

Militants Criminals

Fig 3. 2016 Kidnapping Perpetrators

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Crisis Monitor / Q4 Report 2016 13

a review of the 2016 global kidnap risk environment · a review of the 2016 global kidnap risk...

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