a review & classification of petroleum resource base in thailand anon punnahitanon petroleum...
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A Review & Classificationof
Petroleum Resource Base in Thailand
Anon PunnahitanonPetroleum EngineerMineral Fuel DivisionDepartment of Mineral Resources
Objectives
Reclassify Petroleum Resources & Reserves into the Same Classification SystemEstimate Petroleum Resource Base
Outlook on the Petroleum Industry of the Country
Review Current Petroleum Resource Classification System Currently used in DMR
Outline
Resource Classification System
Reserve Definition
Resource Evaluation
Reserve DevelopmentResource Base @ end 2001Resource Lifecycle & Reserve Growth Projection
Resource Classification System
Resources (Recoverable Resources)Petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward
Resources (Recoverable Resources)Petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward
Undiscovered ResourcesTotal estimated quantities to be recovered from accumulations that remainto be discovered
Undiscovered ResourcesTotal estimated quantities to be recovered from accumulations that remainto be discovered
ReservesAticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward
Potential ResourcesNot commercially producible at present
HypotheticalMapped prospects
SpeculativeNot yet been mapped
Discovered ResourcesTotal discovered deliverable quantitiesbased on in place volume and recovery factor
Discovered ResourcesTotal discovered deliverable quantitiesbased on in place volume and recovery factor
ReservesPetroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a given date forward
Proved ReservesEstimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recovered
Unproved ReservesLess certain to be recovered than proved reserves
Developed ReservesExpected to be recovered form existing wells
Undeveloped ReservesExpected to be recoveredwith additional capital investment
Probable reservesMore likely than notto be recovered
Possible reservesLess likely than likely to be recovered
Reserve Definitions
ReservesReserves
Economic Conditions
Operating Methods
Government Regulations
Historical prices/costs
Reserves Contributing Factors
ReservesDeterministic vs.
Probabilistic
Probabilistic Estimation
Probability
Value
90 th percentile10 th percentile
Mean
Cum. Probability
Value
90 th percentile
10 th percentile
Mean, P50
Proved ?
Probable ?
Possible ?
Probabilistic Estimation (Cont’d)
Probability
Value
Mode
Which one is the most confident ?
90 th percentile10 th percentile
Geometric Mean
Median
If statistical method is to be used, each reserve category should be assessed on different basis to reflect its inherent different level of confidence in data from which it is derived.
Probabilistic estimate is very useful to form an uncertainty range of and estimation.
Its implication is “what the safe side of the estimate and what the outrageous one are”
Criteria in assessing level of confidence is qualitatively spelled out in SPE/WPC definitions.
Applying Statistics in Reserves Estimation
Because of potential differences in uncertainty,
caution should be exercisedwhen aggregating different reserve classification
Caution
Resource / Reserve Assessment
Petroleum Provinces
Northern Intermontane
Central Plain
Northeastern
Gulf of Thailand
The Andaman Sea
Gas (TCF) Oil (MMBBL) Condensate (MMBBL)
Basins
Low High Low High Low High Onshore Tertiary
0.2 0.5 120.0 260.0 - -
Pre-Tertiary 3.5 11.0 - - 1.0 5.0
Gulf of Thailand
11.0 33.0 110 350 225.0 600.0
Andaman Sea
2.5 7.5 30.0 100.0 30.0 100.0
Total 17.2 52.0 260.0 710.0 256.0 705.0
Estimated Undiscovered Resources
Oil (MMBBL)
Condensate (MMBBL)
Natural Gas (BCF)
Gulf of Thailand 92.42 7.29 633.77 Onshore NA NA NA
Estimated Discovered Resources
Possible Reserves 253.4 321.0 7,617.8
Probable Reserves 156.9 245.1 9,654.4
Proved Reserves 325.0 262.4 13,301.6
Cumulative Production 188.6 196.5 6,739.5
Potential Recoveries
Ultimate Recovery
924 1,025 37.3
Oil (MMBBLS)
Condensate(MMBBLS)
Natural Gas(BCF)
Oil (MMBBL)
Condensate (MMBBL)
Natural Gas (BCF)
Undiscovered Resources 260 256 17,200.0 Potential Recovery 92.4 7.3 633.8 Possible Reserves 253.4 321.0 7,617.8 Probable Reserves 156.9 245.1 9,654.4 Proved Reserves 325.0 262.4 13,301.6 Cumulative Production 188.6 196.5 6,739.5 Total 1,276.3 1,288.3 55,147.1
Total Resource Base
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
MM
BB
Ls
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
BC
F
Oil Condensate Gas
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
MM
BB
Ls
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
BC
F
Oil Condensate Gas
Thailand Petroleum Proved Reserves 1979-2001
UR *
Field Growth or Reserve Growth
An Increase in Ultimate Recovery (Proved Reserves + Cumulative Production)
Annual Field Growth (AFG)
Cumulative Field Growth (CFG)
URAFGn =
UR n-1
CFGn = UR 1 n
n
UR *2 ...*
0
20
40
60
80
100
120U
ltim
ate
Rec
over
y P
oten
tial
%
Proved + Production Unproved Potential Undiscovered Resources
Petroleum Resource Lifecycle
y = 71.106Ln (x) - 167.75
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 10 20 30 40 50
Year
Cu
mu
lati
ve G
row
th F
acto
r
y = 71.106Ln (x) - 167.75
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 10 20 30 40 50
Year
Cu
mu
lati
ve G
row
th F
acto
rNatural Gas Reserve Cumulative Growth
y = 23.268Ln(x) - 47.113
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 10 20 30 40 50Year
Cu
mu
lati
ve G
row
th F
acto
r
y = 23.268Ln(x) - 47.113
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 10 20 30 40 50
Cu
mu
lati
ve G
row
th F
acto
rCrude Oil Reserve Cumulative Growth
68%
36.9 TCF
18.2TCF32%
Natural Gas Resource Outlook
2002 2022
?
55.1 TCF
Unproved Reserves
Undiscovered Resources+ Potential Recovery
Crude Oil Resource Outlook
72%
913 MMBBLS
352MMBBLS28%
2002 2023
?1,276 MMBBLS
10
20
30
40
50
60
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
10
20
30
40
50
60
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Oil
Condensate
Gas
Oil
Condensate
Gas
Thailand Petroleum Proved Reserves 1979-2001
17 Years
Estimated Petroleum Resource Base for Oil, Condensate and Natural Gas are 1,276 MMBBLS, 1,288 MMBBLS, and 55 TCF, Respectively
DMR’s Current Classification System is Reviewed
Total Reserves are 924 MMBBLS Oil, 1025 MMBBLS Condensate, and 37.3 TCF Natural Gas
Summary
Petroleum Industry has Past Mature Stage with Total Ultimate Recovery for Oil and Natural Gas 72% and 68 % of Total Resource Base
Summary (Cont’d)
Projection of Reserve Growth for Oil and Gas shows that total Reserves will sustain the Growth for the Next 20 Years