a public opinion research project exploring attitudes about government

A Public Opinion Research Project Exploring Attitudes About

Government

Emily Ekins | Polling Director at Reason Foundation

reason.com/poll

POLLING YOUR AUDIENCEAmerican Dream Coalition 2013Emily Ekins | Polling Director at Reason Foundation

Why does polling matter?• Understanding your audience

• What underlying assumptions are people making?• Where are people coming from?• Do demographics or partisanship predict support?

• Using survey questions to understand how the public makes trade-offs

• Telling a narrative• Demonstrating to lawmakers what the public thinks about

your policy proposals

Polling Basics• Avoid biased, leading language• Represent opponents’ views as accurately as possible to

realistically measure public opinion• Use a reputable pollster, use cell phones in the sample• Ask baseline questions to calibrate with other polls

• If message testing, ask after baseline questions to avoid bias• Be transparent with data and results

Which Method to Use?Survey Type Pros Cons Ideal for

Live TelephoneInterviewing

Landline & Cell Phones

Most accurate, reaches young people, Latinos, and other harder to reach populations

Expensive Measuring national public opinion, impacting the media debate

Robo Calls Landline Only* Not Allowed to Call Cell Phones

Less Expensive Less accurate on hard to reach populations, overestimates Republican respondents

Measuring older, conservative audiences, needs to be supplemented (i.e. Internet survey) to represent national population

Internet- Based Surveys

Probability Sample (Matching Method)

Less Expensive Prone to bias without the right methodology

Measuring national public opinion*, Surveys of young people

Wisconsin Recall

In order to reduce state budget deficits do you support or oppose limiting collective bargaining…

for public employee unions?…rights for public employee unions

Oppose52%

Favor43%


for public employee unions?rights for public employee unions

Oppose52%

Favor43%


for public employee unions?

Oppose43%

Favor51%

rights for public employee unions

Oppose52%

Favor43%

State level issues can have a national impact

Transportation

Most Americans are dissatisfied with the overall quality and condition of the transportation system

Excellent6%

Good35%

Fair35%

Poor16%

Would you say the overall quality and condition of your area’s transportation system is excellent, good, fair, or poor?

51% are Unsatisfied

Half of Americans say traffic congestion is getting worse and expect it to worsen

Better8%

Worse49%

Same38%

Compared to five years ago, would you say traffic congestion has gotten…

Worse 54%

Better 12%

Same28%

Looking ahead, in the next five years do you think traffic congestion will get…

About a third of Americans say traffic congestion has gotten worse in recent years and expect it to get worse

Next 5 Years5 Years Ago

Worse Same BetterWorse 36% 8% 4%

Same 14% 2% 4%

Better 2% 18% 5%

About a third of Americans say traffic congestion has gotten worse in recent years and expect it to get worse

Next 5 Years5 Years Ago

Worse Same BetterWorse 36% 8% 4%

Same 14% 2% 4%

Better 2% 18% 5%

• More female• 45-64• College

Graduate• Nonpartisan

Americans prioritize funding for highways and roads over mass transit

Roads/Highways

62%

Mass Transit

30%

“We can’t end our traffic congestion problems by expanding current roads and building new ones. Instead we need better mass transit systems, so more funding should go to transit - even if that means roads and highways don’t get the money they need for repairs or expansion.” OR 2. “Most people, businesses and our economy rely on roads and highways. So roads and highways should get the level of funding they need - even if that means we are unable to offer more mass transit options.”

• Democratic• Liberal• Post-Graduates• Nonwhite• Often uses public

transit

Majorities of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans prioritize highway funding

Democrat

Independent

Republican

15% 35% 55% 75%

40%

32%

18%

51%

61%

76%

Highways/Roads Mass Transit

Preference for Mass Transit Declines With Age

18-29 30-44 45-54 55-64 65+15%

20%

25%

30%

35% 34%

31%29%

30%

24%

Preference for Mass Transit

Although Most Americans Are Dissatisfied With the Transportation System & Expect Traffic Congestion to Worsen, 77% Oppose Raising Gas Tax

Strongly Support

8%

Some-what Support11%

Some-what Oppose21%

Strongly Oppose56%

The federal gas tax is currently 18.4 cents a gallon, and nearly all the revenue is used to pay for highways and transit. “Some say our roads and transit systems are crumbling and need more funding”. “Others say the government wastes a lot of the gas tax money it already receives”. Do you favor or oppose raising the federal gas tax?

Americans expect government will waste their transportation tax dollars

Ineffectively65%

Effectively23%

Don’t Know13%

Do you think the government generally spends transportation funding ineffectively or effectively?

Americans prefer using toll roads to pay for highway and road expansion, partisans agree

Tax In-creases

28%Tolls 58%

Tolls TaxesDemocrats 58% 32%

Independents 52% 32%

Republicans 61% 24%

If your region expanded its highway system, would you prefer to pay for the new lanes or new highways by “raising taxes” or by “paying tolls when you drive on them”?

Most Americans say they would pay to use toll roads if it would save them time…

Yes59%

No27%

Maybe13%

If your area built a new toll lane or road and using it would save you a significant amount of time, would you pay a toll to use it?

Americans who live near toll roads are more favorable to using toll roads to fund highway expansion

Toll Road in Area No Toll Roads in Area

Tax Increase 23% 32%

Toll Roads 68% 52%

Don’t Know 9% 16%

Americans who live near toll roads are more favorable to using toll roads to fund highway expansion

Toll Road in Area No Toll Roads in Area

Tax Increase 23% 32%

Toll Roads 68% 52%

Don’t Know 9% 16%

Slightly higher income and education

Slightly lower income and education

Preference for Toll Roads Increases with Income, But Majorities of All Income Groups Favor

< $25K $25K-$49K $50K-$74K $75K-$99K $100K+40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

54%57%

65%63%

69%

% Would Use Toll Roads

Preference for Toll Roads Increases with Education, But Majorities of All Education Groups Favor

< High School High School Some College College Grad Post Grad40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

50%

57% 58%

64%66%

% Would Use Toll Roads

How much would you pay to use toll roads?

None $.05-$.75 $.76-$1 $1-$2 $2-$250%

10%

20%

30%

Respondents Don’t Live Near TollsNot Near Tolls

How much would you pay to use toll roads?

None $.05-$.75 $.76-$1 $1-$2 $2-$250%

10%

20%

30%

Near Tolls Not Near Tolls Median MeanNot Near

Tolls $.50 $1.15

Near Tolls $1.00 $1.61

National Average $.75 $1.34

Most Americans favor opening up HOV lanes to drivers who pay a toll

Strongly Support

34%

Some-what Support

23%

Some-what Oppose

12%

Strongly Oppose23%

To reduce traffic congestion, some regions are allowing individual drivers to pay a toll to use HOV lanes that have previously been reserved for cars with 2 or more people in them. Some say “this offers everyone a faster trip and brings in needed revenue.” Others say “it is unfair to low-income drivers”. Do you support or oppose allowing individual drivers use HOV lanes if they pay a toll? Is that strongly or somewhat?

Majorities of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans favor opening up HOV lanes to drivers who pay a toll

Democrat

Independent

Republican

15% 35% 55% 75%

51%

53%

66%

39%

37%

28%

Oppose Favor

Most Americans oppose adjustable rate tolls based on traffic congestion. Further research should find out why.

Strongly Support

20%

Some-what Support

19%Some-what

Oppose15%

Strongly Oppose35%

Another plan being used to reduce congestion during rush hours is charging adjustable tolls on new toll roads. The tolls are higher at times when traffic is heavy and lower when traffic is light. Is that something you support or oppose? Is that strongly or somewhat?

Preference for adjustable rate toll roads less related to income, all income groups oppose

< $25K $25K-$49K $50K-$74K $75K-$99K $100K+10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

28%

38%43% 43%

37%

% Favor Adjustable Rate Toll Roads

Preference for adjustable rate toll roads less related to education, all education groups oppose


20%

30%

40%

50%

18%

27%29% 30%

31%

% Favor Adjustable Rate Toll Roads

56% of Americans support public-private partnerships to build and expand highways, airports, and other infrastructure projects

Strongly Support

22%

Some-what Support

33%

Some-what Oppose

15%

Strongly Oppose20%

Many governments are partnering with private companies to build and expand highways, airports and other infrastructure projects that government might not be able to afford otherwise. Do you favor or oppose these public-private partnerships?

Support for private-public partnerships increases with income

< $25K $25K-$49K $50K-$74K $75K-$99K $100K+30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

45%

54%59% 57%

67%

% Favor Private-Public Partnerships

Support for private-public partnerships increases with education


40%

60%

37%

51%

59%

53%

67%

% Favor Private-Public Partnerships

Majorities of Democrats and Republicans favor private-public partnerships

Democrat

Independent

Republican

15% 35% 55% 75%

54%

48%

62%

37%

39%

30%

Oppose Favor

a public opinion research project exploring attitudes about government

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