a process-based model for valuing coastal protection services · 1a. coastal exposure index. 1b....
TRANSCRIPT
fabiencousteau.org
A Process-Based Model for Valuing Coastal Protection Services
Greg Guannel, K. Arkema, M. Papenfus, G. Verutes, J. DavisJ. Bernhardt, A. Guerry, C.-K. Kim,M. Ruckelshaus, and J. Toft
SaveGuanaCayReef
NOAA
Miami Herald
Coastal Protection Model in Marine InVEST
Outline
2
1 Coastal protection in Marine InVEST
Theory behind the model
Illustrative example3
Two Types of Hazards
Flooding
Erosion
Coastal Protection Model
Two Types of Habitats
Non-living
Living
Living Habitats
Non-Living Habitats
Spelio
Habitats Characteristics
Inputs
1aCoastal Exposure Index
1bErosion/Inundation Model
• Know the Environment• Generate Scenarios
Coastal Protection Model
Inputs
ozcoast.org
SiteCharacteristics
Storm Characteristics
Management Action
Biotic Features
Coral Cay Conservation
Social Data
Outputs
Inputs
ozcoast.org
SiteCharacteristics
Storm Characteristics
Management Action
Coral Cay Conservation
Social Data
Relative ExposureUSGS
Avoided Eroded & Inundated Area
Short & Long Term Effects of Seawalls
Avoided Property Damage
Avoided Number of People Affected
Outputsa
bBiotic
Features
Erosion/Inundation Model
Steve@Flickr
Define Environment
Public Land Private Land
$$
Define Driving Conditions
Public Land Private Land
$$
Example
Management Action
Off
shor
e Beach15 hrs Storm
Storm SimulationTropical
+ Waves
Extra-Tropical
Big Storm = Increased Water Level
(Non-)Living Habitat Decrease Water Level
Estimate surge from 2D model
Run Storm Surge Model
15 hrs Storm
Hmax=3m
T=8s
BotVegbg
xEC
g DDD −−−=∂
∂ρ
81
Mendez&Losada, 2004
Run Wave Model
Dean&Bender, 2006
Increased Water Level = Erosion/Inundation
Area erodedKriebel and Dean, 1993
(Non-)Living Habitat Provide Protection
ΔErosion=2m or 9m3
Public Land Private Land
Avoided property damages Avoided number of people affected
Avoided beach erosion Avoided re-nourishment cost
Valuation
Property value: $5,000/m2
Nourishment Cost: $5/m3
Property line
Shoreline
Valuation
Valuation
Avoided re-nourishment cost Avoided property damages
NOT TO SCALE
Conclusion
Qualitative and quantitative tools to value services from habitats
Wide variety of marine and coastal habitats can be incorporated
Process-based model estimates erosion and inundation during storms
Plenty of guidance provided to interpret inputs and outputs
Future Steps
Tier1a available February 2011
mymauisunset
Future Steps
Tier1a available February 2011
Tier1b available mid-2011
mymauisunset
Future Steps
Tier1a available February 2011
Tier1b available mid-2011
Guidance and databases
mymauisunset
Questions?
ekidnaworld
Social Variables
What is the land used for?
Where do people live?
Can they evacuate easily?
Incorporation of Man-Made Structures
Amount of overtopping
Stability of wall
Bonus! Long-Terms Impacts
Thom and Shreffler, 1994
+ Erosion of adjacent sites
15 hrs Storm
Hmax=3m
T=8s
BotVegbg
xEC
g DDD −−−=∂
∂ρ
81
Mendez&Losada, 2004
Run Wave Model
Dean&Bender, 2006
SaveGuanaCayReef
NOAA
Miami Herald
S G C R f
1) Relative exposure of this area?1) Relative exposure of this area?
2) Protection value of existing habitats?
34
Coastal Exposure Index
35USGS
A Screening and Evaluation Tool
36USGS
A Screening and Evaluation Tool
37
Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5
GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,
fiard
Medium cliff, indented
coast
Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain
Cobble beach, estuary,
lagoon, bluff
Barrier beach, sand beach,
mud flat, delta
Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,
coastal forest
High dune,marsh
Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,
gravel, cobble..
Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value
Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value
Coastal Exposure Index
38
Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5
GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,
fiard
Medium cliff, indented
coast
Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain
Cobble beach, estuary,
lagoon, bluff
Barrier beach, sand beach,
mud flat, delta
Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,
coastal forest
High dune,marsh
Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,
gravel, cobble..
Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value
Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value
Coastal Exposure Index
39
Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5
GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,
fiard
Medium cliff, indented
coast
Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain
Cobble beach, estuary,
lagoon, bluff
Barrier beach, sand beach,
mud flat, delta
Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,
coastal forest
High dune,marsh
Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,
gravel, cobble..
Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value
Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value
Coastal Exposure Index
40
Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5
GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,
fiard
Medium cliff, indented
coast
Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain
Cobble beach, estuary,
lagoon, bluff
Barrier beach, sand beach,
mud flat, delta
Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,
coastal forest
High dune,marsh
Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,
gravel, cobble..
Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value
Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value
Coastal Exposure Index
41
Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5
GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,
fiard
Medium cliff, indented
coast
Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain
Cobble beach, estuary,
lagoon, bluff
Barrier beach, sand beach,
mud flat, delta
Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,
coastal forest
High dune,marsh
Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,
gravel, cobble..
Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value
Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value
Coastal Exposure Index
`
42
Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5
GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,
fiard
Medium cliff, indented
coast
Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain
Cobble beach, estuary,
lagoon, bluff
Barrier beach, sand beach,
mud flat, delta
Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,
coastal forest
High dune,marsh
Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,
gravel, cobble..
Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value
Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value
Coastal Exposure Index
Estimate Value of Vegetation
Public Land Private LandArea eroded in absence of vegetation: 4 m2/m
Area eroded in presence of vegetation: 2 m2/m
Estimate Avoided Erosion
Area erodedKriebel and Dean, 1993
Public Land Private Land
Increased Water Level = Erosion/Inundation
• Property damages• Number of people affected
• Amount beach lost• Re-nourishment cost
Public Land Private Land
(Non-)Living Habitat Provide Protection
Avoided property damages Avoided number of people affected
Avoided beach erosion Avoided re-nourishment cost
Public Land Private Land
Inputs
ozcoast.org
Physical Characteristics
Storm Characteristics
Management Action
Jakarta Post
HabitatCoral Cay Conservation
Social Data
Outputs
Relative ExposureUSGS
Avoided Eroded and Inundated Area
Coral Cay Conservation
Short & Long Term Effects of Seawalls
Amount of Property Damage
Number of People Affected
Data, Data, Data
Data, Data, Data
Global Bathymetry
Data, Data, Data
Global Bathymetry
Habitats drag and friction coefficients
Data, Data, Data
Global Bathymetry
Habitats drag and friction coefficients
Default beach profiles parameters
53
Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5
GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,
fiard
Medium cliff, indented
coast
Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain
Cobble beach, estuary,
lagoon, bluff
Barrier beach, sand beach,
mud flat, delta
Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,
coastal forest
High dune,marsh
Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,
gravel, cobble..
Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value
Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value
High and consolidated >low and unconsolidated
Index Variables
54
Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5
GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,
fiard
Medium cliff, indented
coast
Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain
Cobble beach, estuary,
lagoon, bluff
Barrier beach, sand beach,
mud flat, delta
Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,
coastal forest
High dune,marsh
Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,
gravel, cobble..
Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value
Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value
Index Variables
Stiff & Permanent > Flexible & Dynamic > Nothing
55
Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5
GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,
fiard
Medium cliff, indented
coast
Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain
Cobble beach, estuary,
lagoon, bluff
Barrier beach, sand beach,
mud flat, delta
Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,
coastal forest
High dune,marsh
Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,
gravel, cobble..
Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value
Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value
Index Variables
Water goes up: land disappears
56
Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5
GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,
fiard
Medium cliff, indented
coast
Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain
Cobble beach, estuary,
lagoon, bluff
Barrier beach, sand beach,
mud flat, delta
Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,
coastal forest
High dune,marsh
Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,
gravel, cobble..
Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value
Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value
Index Variables
Strong winds = higher storm surge & waves, and flying debris
57
Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5
GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,
fiard
Medium cliff, indented
coast
Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain
Cobble beach, estuary,
lagoon, bluff
Barrier beach, sand beach,
mud flat, delta
Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,
coastal forest
High dune,marsh
Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,
gravel, cobble..
Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value
Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value
Index Variables
Larger waves cause more erosion
58
Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5
GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,
fiard
Medium cliff, indented
coast
Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain
Cobble beach, estuary,
lagoon, bluff
Barrier beach, sand beach,
mud flat, delta
Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,
coastal forest
High dune,marsh
Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,
gravel, cobble..
Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher value
Shelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value
Index Variables
59
Rank Very Low Low Moderate High Very HighVariable 1 2 3 4 5
GeomorphologyRocky, cliffedcoast, fiord,
fiard
Medium cliff, indented
coast
Low cliff, glacial drift, alluvial plain
Cobble beach, estuary,
lagoon, bluff
Barrier beach, sand beach,
mud flat, delta
Natural HabitatsCoral reef, mangrove,
coastal forest
High dune,marsh
Low dune Seagrass, kelpBare sand,
gravel, cobble..
Sea Level Change Net decrease ±1 Net riseWind Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueWave Exposure Lower value Average value Higher valueShelf Length Lower value Average value Higher valueTidal Range No Ranking of Tidal Range – Just Value
Index Variables
Data, Data, Data
Global:
Population
Data, Data, Data
Global:
Population
Shoreline
Data, Data, Data
Global:
Population
Shoreline
Shelf position
Data, Data, Data
Global:
Population
Shoreline
Shelf position
Wind statistics
Data, Data, Data
Global:
Population
Shoreline
Shelf position
Wind statistics
Wave statistics
Data, Data, Data
66
Detecting the Presence of Habitats
67
Detecting the Presence of Habitats
VegBotBrkg
xEC
g DDD −−−=∂
∂ρ
81
||21 uNubCF vDρ=
Dissipation of Wave Energy via Drag Force
Bradley & Houser, 2009Kobayashi et al., 1993
68
• 47 studies with 167 data pointsmarsh (21), seagrass (17), kelp (5), and mangrove (4)
46 studies report wave attenuation
• 25 studies with 138 data points to fit Cdmarsh (9), seagrass (12), kelp (2), and mangrove (2)
Meta-analysis of Wave Attenuation
69
Type
Living Habitats
HeightDepth
DiameterRMI2
Extent
Density
Type
Length Height
Type of Vegetation
Non-Living Habitats
Spelio
J. Kitchin
Winds
PD Photos
Waves
Management Action ErosionInundation
FEMA USGS
Winds Waves
ΔInundation ΔErosionManagement
Action
FEMA USGS
PD Photos
Winds Waves
FEMA
ΔInundation
USGS
ΔErosionManagement
Action
Δ=Service
PD Photos
Top 5% wind speeds
Un, Pn
Wind Exposure
Fn
Wind Exposure
Top 5% wind speeds
Un, Pn
Fn
Wind Exposure
Top 5% wind speeds
Un, Pn
∑=
=16
1nnnnSite PFUWiEx
AllSites
SiteSite WiEx
WiExREI =
Fn
Wind Exposure
Top 5% wind speeds
Un, Pn
∑=
=16
1nnnnSite PFUWiEx
Top 5% deep-water wave heights
Wave Exposure
Top 5% deep-water wave heights ∑=
AllSites
SiteSiteWaveExp
PP
∑=%5
25.0Top
Site THP
Wave Exposure
81
Additional Outputs
Type
ExtentHeight:
Depth
Density Diameter
Flexibility
Living Habitats
Under the Hood
Gedney
Conclusion
Value services of habitats that protect against erosion and inundation
Tier1a: Qualitative and quickevaluation tool
Tier 1b: Quantitative process-based model