a probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for mesozoic dinosaurs and the...

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A probabilistically time - scaled 1,000 - taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown - birds Graeme T. Lloyd David W. Bapst @GraemeTLloyd @dwbapst Katie E. Davis Matt Friedman @drkatiedavis @Friedman_Lab

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Page 1: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for

Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Graeme T. Lloyd David W. Bapst@GraemeTLloyd @dwbapst

Katie E. Davis Matt Friedman@drkatiedavis @Friedman_Lab

Page 2: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

When?

1. Dinosaurs

2. Flight

3. Crown birds

Page 3: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Simultaneous inference

Lee et al 2014

Page 4: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

A posteriori time-scaling

paleotree

strap

Page 5: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

A posteriori time-scaling

+

paleotree

strap

Page 6: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

A posteriori time-scaling

+ =

paleotree

strap

Page 7: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

A posteriori time-scaling

Arbitrary

Branch-sharingRuta et al 2006; Brusatte et al 2008

Arbitrary addition(s)Derstler 1982

Minimum branch-lengthLaurin 2004

Page 8: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

A posteriori time-scaling

cal3Bapst 2013

Hedman methodLloyd and Friedman in prep

NowakNowak et al 2013

Arbitrary Probabilistic

Branch-sharingRuta et al 2006; Brusatte et al 2008

Arbitrary addition(s)Derstler 1982

Minimum branch-lengthLaurin 2004

Page 9: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

A posteriori time-scaling

cal3Bapst 2013

Hedman methodLloyd and Friedman in prep

Arbitrary Probabilistic

Page 10: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

cal3 method

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Bapst 2013

Page 11: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

cal3 method

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Bapst 2013

Page 12: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

cal3 method

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Bapst 2013

Page 13: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

cal3 method

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Bapst 2013

Page 14: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Hedman method

Target node Outgroup taxon

TIM

E

Hedman 2010; Lloyd and Friedman in prep

Page 15: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Hedman method

Target node Outgroup taxon

TIM

E

Hedman 2010; Lloyd and Friedman in prep

Page 16: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Lloyd et al. 2008Pisani et al. 2002

Phylogenetic approach

Page 17: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Pipeline

Collectdata

graemetlloyd.com

Page 18: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Pipeline

Collectdata

Reconciletaxonomy

Page 19: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Pipeline

Collectdata

Reconciletaxonomy

Definecutoff

Page 20: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Pipeline

Collectdata

Reconciletaxonomy

Definecutoff

Consensusvs. MPTs

Page 21: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Taxonomytree

Pipeline

ABCDEFGHIJKL

Class Order Family Genus

Page 22: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Taxonomytree

Safe Taxon.Reduction

Pipeline

github.com/graemetlloyd/Claddis

Wilkinson 1995

Page 23: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Taxonomytree

Safe Taxon.Reduction

Weights

Pipeline

Page 24: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Taxonomytree

Safe Taxon.Reduction

Weights Inference

Pipeline

Page 25: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Taxonomytree

Safe Taxon.Reduction

Weights Inference

Pipeline

Page 26: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Resultsca

l3H

edm

an

Page 27: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Dinosauriaca

l3H

edm

an

Page 28: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Dinosauria

2.6%

9.6%

cal3

Hed

man

Page 29: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Dinosauria

0.2%

1.0%

cal3

Hed

man

-

Page 30: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Avesca

l3H

edm

an

Page 31: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Avesca

l3H

edm

an

Page 32: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Crown birdsca

l3H

edm

an

Page 33: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Crown birds

cal3Hedman

95% HPD

Page 34: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Crown birds

cal3

Molecular Clock

Hedman95% HPD

Page 35: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Crown birds

cal3

Molecular Clock

Hedman

Morphological Clock

95% HPD

Page 36: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Conclusions

Hedman

cal3

Page 37: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Conclusions

Hedman

cal3

Page 38: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Conclusions

Hedman

cal3

Page 39: A probabilistically time-scaled 1,000-taxon phylogenetic hypothesis for Mesozoic dinosaurs and the origins of flight and crown-birds

Conclusions

Hedman

cal3