A Presentation to the MAV Future Of Local Government Commission of EnquiryMay 2014

Michael McAllum, michael.mcallum@globalforesight.net© 2014 GLOBAL FORESIGHT NETWORK PTY LTD

FROM STRATEGY TO TOTAL REDESIGN

LIMITS + SYSTEMIC COMPLEXITY + ADVERSITY = A BLACK HOLE of HIGH TRANSACTION COSTS

Local Government is a complex mix of different systems each with completely different narratives.

Blue : Rules for predetermined outcomes

Planning / Engineering / Finance

Red : Heroes, Competition, Winning.Politics / Markets / Policy Battles

Green: Inclusiveness, Community, Sustainability

Spaces / Places/ Environment / Arts

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WHAT PATH WILL LOCAL GOVERNMENT TAKE?

ESCAPE FROM THE MACHINE

1. Creation of a different narrative

2. Plan and design through a different lens

3. Engage with the Community in new ways

4. Recognise that form and shape is changing AND

5. Do so on the basis that all the technologies and case studies to vastly lower transaction costs are already here.

A REVOLUTION IN THE MAKING

1st Industrial Rev.Circa 1800

Factory cities

Steam

Printing

2nd Industrial Rev.Circa 1900

Suburban cities

Oil & electricity

Telephony & Film

Networked Rev2005……..

Interconnected village ecologies

Renewables

Social networkingtechnologies

BEYOND TECHNOLOGY:THE NETWORKED WORLD IS A WAY OF THINKING

Shift from centralised efficiency based systems to distributed networks

Organisation form changes

Rapid move from supply side to demand driven thinking and consumption

Advantage moves from head to head competition to collaboration

Rapid growth in new business models that use far fewer resources to create value.

A FUTURE WHERE ORGANISATIONS LOOK MORE LOOK ECOLOGIES THAN MACHINES

MODERN

Centralised

Mechanistic

Efficiency & performance focus

POST MODERN(CIRCA 85 -2005)

Decentralised

Digital

Specialisation/ Outsource focus

NETWORK CENTRIC

Distributed

Networked

Ecological/connectivity focus

BEYOND TECHNOLOGY:THE NETWORKED WORLD IS A WAY OF THINKING

Shift from centralised efficiency based systems to distributed networks

Organisation form changes

Rapid move from supply side to demand driven thinking and consumption

Advantage moves from head to head competition to collaboration

Rapid growth in new business models that use far fewer resources to create value.

RETHINKING BLUE IN THE INTERNET OF THINGS

Network and spatial technologies will drive:

1.Joined up ecologies of services

2.A rapid shift to cloud based systems

3.Place based treasury

4.A demand for 21st century infrastructures ( renewables at point of demand, local energy storage, mesh technologies, intelligent roads)

5.A focus on economies of scope not scale (because transaction costs are near zero)

“The internet of things is the first smart infrastructure in history that will connect every machine, business, resident and vehicle in an intelligent communications, energy and logistics network.”

PlanningInfrastructureFinanceServices

RETHINKING RED ON THE COLLABORATIVE COMMONS Interconnectivity and mobility reframes everything.

1.Collaboration in the new form of competition

2.The idea of work will require the development of many local markets (3D printing / remote work /the Hub)

3.Access will be valued more than ownership

4.Everything will need to be redesigned from a demand driven NOT a supply push perspective

5.Crowd sourcing and crowd funding will be the norm

“The machine age was dominated by contractual thinking and relationships.The Distributed Age will be dominated by interpersonal relationships.”

CollaborationEngagementMarketsCrowd

RETHINKING GREEN IN A DISTRIBUTED WORLD

Machine thinking (efficiency) gives way to ecological systems (optimisation)

1.Built form will reflect a rapid evolution into multi use ecologies

2.People will prefer EXPERIENCES not TRANSACTIONS

3.A DIVERSITY of informal real and virtual 3rd spaces will be frame the sense of community

4.Institutions will be rethought

5.Distributed and networked allows the use of far fewer resources to create more

“In a future where the over use of resources in not an option, we will discover that the arts, the celebration of culture, festivals and togetherness are what will define meaning and success not money.”

Built formBelongingMore with lessExpression

BEYOND THE BLACK HOLE:THE AUTHENTIC LEADERSHIP CHALLENGE1. NETWORKED INTELLIGENCE

2. A FUTURE STORY

3. DEEP DESIGN

5. IDENTITY RESONANCE

4. NAVIGATION &VALUE CURATION

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We need to move beyond the noise and the blame,

We must find new frameworks for conversation,

In order to create new narratives that are inclusive and allow all to contribute

So that we can transcend where we are now.

For to do otherwise is to contemplate scenarios that are nightmarish if they were to come to pass.

DESIGNING BETTER FUTURES