a potential breakdown of the the...
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A POTENTIAL BREAKDOWN OF A POTENTIAL BREAKDOWN OF THE THE EUROZONEEUROZONE
Dr. Petr TeplýCharles University in Prague, Czech Republic
University of Economics in Prague, Czech Republic
Massey UniversityPalmerston North, New Zealand
31August 2011
AgendaAgenda
Introduction1.
Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3.
Global consequences of the crisis2.
Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3.
The Eurozone and ECB during crisis4.
The recent fall of the Eurozone5.
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Conclusion6.
A potential breakdown of the Eurozone31August 2011
PresenterPresenter –– Dr. Dr. PetrPetr TeplTeplýý
2000 – JKU in Linz, Austria
2006 – University of Otago, New Zealand
2006 – State University of New York, New Paltz, USA
2009 – Ph.D. in Finance, Charles University, Czech Rep.
� Research interests: banking, finance, risk management,
Education
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� (Co)author of over 60 articles and 10 books
� Guest lectures in New Zealand, Turkey, USA
� Presentations at Harvard University, State University of New York, China, Dubai, India, London, India, Nepal, Singapore etc.
� Research interests: banking, finance, risk management, financial stability, public finance, RIA
Job experience 2001-2005 CSOB Bank, Czech Rep.
2006 Spencer Clarke, New York, USA
2007+ EEIP, a.s., Czech Rep.
IntroductionIntroduction to The to The CzechCzech RepublicRepublic (1/2)(1/2)
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IntroductionIntroduction to The to The CzechCzech RepublicRepublic (2/2)(2/2)
Three Main Czech Three Main Czech IconIconss
Czech TOP Sports Czech TOP Sports
Czech Beer
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Czech TOP Sports Czech TOP Sports ((wowo)men)men
PetraKVITOVA
� CUNI = public university founded in 1348
� now 17 faculties, 51,000 students, 7,500 employees, 300 accredited degree programms and 660 study disciplines
� My affiliation: Department of Finance and Capital Markets/Institute of Economic Studies/Faculty of Social Sciences
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Sciences
Source: Academic Ranking of World Universities – 2011, http://www.shanghairanking.com/ARWU2011.html#
1) To present my view on the global crisis, the ECB and the Eurozone
2) To provide info on origins of the ECB and the Eurozone
1.1. IntroductionIntroduction
ThreeThree aimsaims of the presentationof the presentation
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and the Eurozone
3) To welcome comments from the opposite side of the globe ☺
GlobalGlobal politicalpolitical governancegovernance1. 1. IntroductionIntroduction
Source: Petr Teply (2010)
PoliticiansPoliticians catchingcatching powerpower oror money?money?BothBoth??
1. Introduction1. Introduction
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TTaaxxpayerpayers did, do and will always cry!!!s did, do and will always cry!!!1. Introduction1. Introduction
……plus plus ineffectiveineffective regulationregulation ofof financialfinancial marketsmarkets1. Introduction1. Introduction
……andand no no coordinationcoordination on a on a globalglobal levellevel!!
G0
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G20G21. Introduction1. Introduction
12Source: The Economist
AgendaAgenda
Introduction1.
Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3.
Global consequences of the crisis2.
Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3.
The Eurozone and ECB during crisis4.
The recent fall of the Eurozone5.
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Conclusion6.
A potential breakdown of the Eurozone31August 2011
2. 2. GlobalGlobal consequencesconsequences of the crisisof the crisis
Déjà vuDéjà vu to to thethe AsianAsian crisiscrisis in in 11997997
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Source: IMF
2. Global2. Global consequencesconsequences of the crisisof the crisis
Key players during the Key players during the 2007+ 2007+ crisiscrisis
1. Mortgage originators• Lenders• Commercial banks
2. Risk shifters/ transformers• Commercial banks• Investment banks/prime brokers
4. Insurers• Insurance companies• Monoline insurers• Reinsurence companies
5. Rescuers• Central banks• Governmental institutions
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• Investment banks/prime brokers• Government-sponsored
enterprises• SPVs (ABCP/SIV/conduits)
3. Investors• Commercial/investment banks• Hedge/pension funds• Insurance companies• Investment funds• Private investors
• Governmental institutions• Sovereign wealth funds• International Monetary Fund• Private investors
6. Others• Rating agencies• US government• Regulatory bodies
Source: Teply, P., Pecena M. (2010). Credit risk and financial crises
2. 2. GlobalGlobal consequencesconsequences of the crisisof the crisis
FairyFairy taletale aboutabout credit and liquidity riskcredit and liquidity riskss
Central bank
Borrower
Credit risk Liquidity risk
Reinsurer
Insurance
company
$$$
$$$
$$$
Government
institutions$$$
International
Institutions
$$$
US
Government
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CDOST debt
$$$ Mortgage
Lender/Bank GSE SPV
Investors
$$$
$$$
CDO
$$$
$$$
MortgageCommercial
bank
Hedge funds
Insurance
$$$
$$$
$$$
ST debt
$$$
Sovereign
Wealth Funds$$$
$$$
ST debt
Guarantees
Source: Teply, P., Pecena M. (2010). Credit risk and financial crises
2. Global consequences of the crisis2. Global consequences of the crisis
FourFour stagesstages ofof the the pendingpending global global crisiscrisis
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Tsunami Tsunami ofof sovereignsovereign bankruptciesbankruptcies in the EMUin the EMUWhoWho and when and when willwill bebe nextnext??
2. Global 2. Global consequences of the crisisconsequences of the crisis
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2. Global 2. Global consequences of the crisisconsequences of the crisis
Magical triangle of exit strategiesMagical triangle of exit strategies aandnd finanfinancialcialstabilitystability
Monetarypolicy
Fiscalpolicy
Financial
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Financialsector
� The magical triangle of exit strategies
� International coordination needed!
� Importance of competitiveness of economies
� Different time schedules of exits
G0 G20
Source: Petr Teplý (2010)
2. Global 2. Global consequences of the crisisconsequences of the crisis
Timing of exit strategies/expansive Timing of exit strategies/expansive monetary policymonetary policy
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� Odysseus’ dilemma: Scylla a Charybdis –higher inflation/asset bubbles or recession?
2. Global 2. Global consequences of the crisisconsequences of the crisis
Expansive monetary policies around the worldExpansive monetary policies around the world
21Source: Petr Teplý (2010)
2. Global 2. Global consequences of the crisisconsequences of the crisis
High engagement of many central banksHigh engagement of many central banks
Monetarypolicy
Fiscalpolicy
Financialsector
22Source: Economist (2011), FITCH (2011)
2. 2. GlobalGlobal consequences of the crisisconsequences of the crisis
Quantitative easing 1,2,3…Quantitative easing 1,2,3…
Monetarypolicy
Fiscalpolicy
Financialsector
� The Federal Reserve announced that it would buy $600 billion in Treasuries over the next eight months in a second round of “quantitative easing”. The decision to pump more liquidity into the American economy to bring down long-term interest rates and spur growth prompted modest rises in stockmarketsaround the world.
23Source: The Economist on 4 November 2010
2. Global 2. Global consequences of the crisisconsequences of the crisis
Deteriorating reputation of central banksDeteriorating reputation of central banks
24Source: The Economist (2011)
AgendaAgenda
Introduction1.
Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3.
Global consequences of the crisis2.
Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3.
The Eurozone and ECB during crisis4.
The recent fall of the Eurozone5.
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Conclusion6.
A potential breakdown of the Eurozone31August 2011
o European Union (now 27 countries) objective of economic integration.
o Idea of European Monetary Union (EMU) has been around since early 1970s.
o Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM): system of fixed exchange rates.
3. 3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECBOrigins of the Eurozone and ECB
Origins of the Origins of the EU EU andand the Eurozonethe Eurozone
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rates.
oGerman Unication - ERM collapsed in early 1990s
oThe 1992 Maastricht Treaty set up the EMU with the EURO
o 1 January 1999:
oConversion rates are established
oECB assumes responsibility for a single monetary policy
3. 3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECBOrigins of the Eurozone and ECB
ECBECB´́s basic s basic capitalcapital distributiondistribution
27Source: www.ecb.int
3. 3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECBOrigins of the Eurozone and ECB
EurozoneEurozone countriescountries
28Source: The Economist (2010)
3. 3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECBOrigins of the Eurozone and ECB
(In)dependence (In)dependence ofof thethe ECBECB
29Source: www.ecb.int
3. 3. OriginsOrigins of of the Eurozone and ECBthe Eurozone and ECB
PoliticalPolitical pressurepressure on the ECBon the ECB
I know!Sure!
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I amindependant
!
3. Origins of 3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECBthe Eurozone and ECB
HowHow shouldshould the the regulatorregulator reactreact on on underunder//mismispricingpricing risk???risk???
31Source: Mejstřík, Teplý (2011)
3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB
Bankruptcies of Ireland and GreeceBankruptcies of Ireland and Greece
3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB
……butbut differentdifferent causescauses
Source: Fitch (2010), DB Research (2010)
3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB
DDdifferentdifferent macroeconomicmacroeconomic developmentsdevelopments in the EMUin the EMU
Source: DB Research (2010)
3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB
……hahass widened gaps in competitivenesswidened gaps in competitiveness
Source: DB Research (2010)
3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB
……increasedincreased ppublicublic deficitsdeficits
Source: DB Research (2010)
3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB
……andand relatedrelated highhigh ggrossross fiscal financing needsfiscal financing needs
37Source: Fitch (2010)
3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB
GreeceGreece –– longlong--termterm fiscalfiscal andand externalexternal imbalancesimbalances
38Source: Fitch (2010)
3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB
IrishIrish and Greek and Greek public public debtdebt heldheld by by foreignersforeigners!!!!!!
39Source: IMF (2011)
3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB
IrelandIreland –– overheatedoverheated financialfinancial sectorsector
40Source: Fitch (2010)
3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB
……skyrocketingskyrocketing bank bank creditscredits
41Source: The Economist (2010)
3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3. Origins of the Eurozone and ECB
……financingfinancing realreal estateestate bublebuble
42Source: The Economist (2010)
AgendaAgenda
Introduction1.
Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3.
Global consequences of the crisis2.
Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3.
The Eurozone and ECB during crisis4.
The recent fall of the Eurozone5.
43
Conclusion6.
A potential breakdown of the Eurozone31August 2011
4. The Eurozone 4. The Eurozone and and ECB during crisisECB during crisis
…ECB…ECB´́s help to PIGSs help to PIGS
4444Source: FITCH (2011)
4. The Eurozone and ECB during crisis4. The Eurozone and ECB during crisis
Future expected Future expected probprobllems ems in Europein Europe
45Source: Petr Teplý (2011)
� The dark future of Greece: bank runs, demonstration, riots,…followed by anarchy/revolution/dictatorship like in the past.... And what about other PIGS?
4. The Eurozone and ECB during crisis4. The Eurozone and ECB during crisis
……differentiated differentiated govgov’ t bond yields’ t bond yields
46Zdroj: Bloomberg, IMF, MARKIT
� 10-year bond yields in the EMU and the CR (%)
� 10-year bond yields of developed countries (%)
4. The Eurozone and ECB during crisis4. The Eurozone and ECB during crisis…CDS …CDS spreadspreads imply different credit risk of s imply different credit risk of CEE countries and PIGSCEE countries and PIGS
47Source: MMF (2011), RB Research (2011)
� Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads (bps)
� Sovereign CDS (bps), change in April 2011 and April 2010
AgendaAgenda
Introduction1.
Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3.
Global consequences of the crisis2.
Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3.
The Eurozone and ECB during crisis4.
The recent fall of the Eurozone5.
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Conclusion6.
A potential breakdown of the Eurozone31August 2011
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
GreeceGreece´́s s bankruptcybankruptcy in May 2010in May 2010
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� …financial markets stopped believingGreek myths and numbers!
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
……andand EuropeanEuropean support support startedstarted
oEUR 500 billion emergency fund with two facilities
1) An existing EU balance‐of‐payments facility, previously only available to non‐‐‐‐euro area members of the EU: this has now been expanded by EUR60bn, funded out of the existing EU budget and made accessible to euro area member states (European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM)
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member states (European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM)
2) The second component is a new European Financial Stabilisation Facility (EFSF). The EFSF will access capital markets for up to EUR440bn through a specially created funding facility on the back of sovereign guarantees from euro zone member states, much of which will be available for on‐lending to those countries facing financing distress. This funding could be supplemented by as much as EUR220bn from the IMF, in addition to the EUR30bn already committed to Greece. Source: Fitch (2010)
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
The EFSThe EFSMM –– structure of fundingstructure of funding
51Source: ECB (2010)
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
The The EFSEFSFF –– structure of funding structure of funding
52Source: ECB (2010)
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
Financial needs and support of the EFSFinancial needs and support of the EFSFF
53Source: Fitch (2010)
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
The ESFS The ESFS –– structure of fundingstructure of funding
54Source: Fitch (2010)
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
EuropeanEuropean Stability Stability MechanismMechanism ((MarchMarch 2011)2011)
55Source: Financial Times (2011)
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
Main Features of the EFSM, EFSF and ESM (1/2)Main Features of the EFSM, EFSF and ESM (1/2)
56Source: FITCH (2011)
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
Main Features of the EFSM, EFSF and ESM (2/2)Main Features of the EFSM, EFSF and ESM (2/2)
57Source: FITCH (2011)
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
But fBut futureuture financialfinancial needsneeds ofof PIGSPIGS
58Source: The Economist (2010)
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
....including including a a roadroad to to hellhell ofof SpainSpain ((cajascajas!)!)
59Source: Fitch (2011)
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
.....lack of capacity of the EFSF.lack of capacity of the EFSF
� Why not Eurobonds?
� Because of higher financing
60Source: The Economist (2011)
financing costs for Germany (IFO: EUR 47bn costs annualy!)
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
Strong connection between Germany andStrong connection between Germany and PIGS PIGS
61Zdroj: Wolf: Intolerable choices for the eurozone, Financial Times on 31 May 2011
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
Exposures to Greek debt (2010)Exposures to Greek debt (2010)
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5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
……restructuralizationrestructuralization ofof PIGS PIGS debtdebt neededneeded!!
63Source: DB Research (2011)
� …the need to fix a situation after 2013 -> European Stability Mechanism (ESM), but ONLY a partial agreement (due to elections in Finland and Germany)
5. The recent fall of the Eurozone5. The recent fall of the Eurozone
5 options on Greek debt restructuring5 options on Greek debt restructuring
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� Politicians are just buying time (until their elections) but “hard restructuring” is inevitable
� Greeks will never repaid all their debts!
5. Euro a kurzové riziko5. Euro a kurzové riziko
And what about GermansAnd what about Germans??
� In case of Greek debt restructuring German taxpayers will cry, but in different time and different amount
1) Bankruptcy of Ger. banks (bail-out)
2) Recapitalization of the ECB
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2) Recapitalization of the ECB
3) Guarantee mechanisms (EFSF, ESM)
4) International Monetary Funds
� Optimum for Germans: To keep Greece/PIGS alive until the lections in 2013 and then let them go down (kick-off out of the Eurozone)
AgendaAgenda
Introduction1.
Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3.
Global consequences of the crisis2.
Origins of the Eurozone and ECB3.
The Eurozone and ECB during crisis4.
The recent fall of the Eurozone5.
66
Conclusion6.
A potential breakdown of the Eurozone31August 2011
6. 6. ConclusionConclusion
The Eurozone in its current form will not survive the
year of 2013!
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year of 2013!
DiscussionDiscussion
Many thanks for your kind attention!Many thanks for your kind attention!Any questions?Any questions?
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UsefulUseful sourcessources
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