A Plan For a Sustainable Future Using

Wind, Water, and the Sun

Mark Z. Jacobson

Atmosphere/Energy Program

Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering

Stanford University

Mark A. DeLucchi

Institute of Transportation Studies

University of California, Davis

Clean Air Forum 2010

Sydney, Australia

August 19, 2010

Contributors to Global Warming

Jacobson (2010, JGR 115, D14209)

Steps in Analysis

1. Rank energy technologies in terms ofCarbon-dioxide equivalent emissionsAir pollution mortalityWater consumptionFootprint on the ground and total spacing requiredResource abundanceAbility to match peak demandEffects on wildlife, thermal pollution, water pollution

2. Evaluate replacing 100% of energy with best technologies interms of resources, materials, matching supply, costs, politics

Electricity/Vehicle Options StudiedElectricity optionsWind turbinesSolar photovoltaics (PV)Geothermal power plantsTidal turbinesWave devicesConcentrated solar power (CSP)Hydroelectric power plantsNuclear power plantsCoal with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)

Vehicle OptionsBattery-Electric Vehicles (BEVs)Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs)Corn ethanol (E85)Cellulosic ethanol (E85)

Wind Power, Wind-Driven Wave Power

www.mywindpowersystem.com

Hydroelectric, Geothermal, Tidal Power

www.gizmag.comwww.inhabitat.comwebecoist.comwww.reuk.co.uk

Concentrated Solar Power, PV Power

sustainabledesignupdate.comwww.wapa.gov

Tesla Roadster all electric

www.carforums.netwww.carazed.comwww.utexas.eduwww.ubergizmo.comEcofriendly mag.com Hydrogen fuel cell–electric hybridHydrogen fuel cell bus

Electric/Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

Nissan LeafTesla Model S all electric

Zmships.eu

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ships & Tractors; Liquid

Hydrogen Aircraft

Ecofriend.org

Ec.europa.eu

Midlandpower.com

Heat pump water heater

Air-Source Heat Pump, Air Source Electric

Water Heater, Solar Water Pre-Heater

Conservpros.comAdaptivebuilders.com

Lifecycle CO2e of Electricity Sources

Low Estimate High Estimate

Time Between Planning & Operation

Nuclear: 10 - 19 y (life 40 y)Site permit: 3.5 - 6 yConstruction permit approval and issue 2.5 - 4 yConstruction time 4 - 9 years

Hydroelectric: 8 - 16 y (life 80 y)Coal-CCS: 6 - 11 y (life 35 y)Geothermal: 3 - 6 y (life 35 y)Ethanol: 2 - 5 y (life 40 y)CSP: 2 - 5 y (life 30 y)Solar-PV: 2 - 5 y (life 30 y)Wave: 2 - 5 y (life 15 y)Tidal: 2 - 5 y (life 15 y)Wind: 2 - 5 y (life 30 y)

CO2e From Current Power Mix due to

Planning-to-Operation Delays, Relative to Wind

Low Estimate High Estimate

CO2e From Loss of Carbon Stored in Land

Low Estimate High Estimate

Total CO2e of Electricity Sources

Low Estimate High Estimate

Percent Change in U.S. CO2 From

Converting to BEVs, HFCVs, or E85

Low/High U.S. Air Pollution Deaths/yr For 2020 Upon

Conversion of U.S. Vehicle Fleet

Low Estimate High EstimateNuclear Terrorism or War

Wind

BEV

Wind

HFCV

CSP

BEV

PV

BEV

Geo

BEV

Tidal

BEV

Wave

BEV

Hydro

BEV

Nuclear

BEV

CCS

BEV

Corn

E85

Cell

E85

Gasoline

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

Cellulosic E854.7-35.4% of US

Solar PV-BEV0.077-0.18%

Corn E859.8-17.6% of

US

Wind-BEVFootprint 1-2.8 km2

Turbine spacing

0.35-0.7% of US

Geoth BEV0.006-0.008%

Nuclear-BEV0.05-0.062%

Footprint 33%

of total; the rest is

buffer

Water Consumed to Run U.S. Vehicles

U.S. water demand = 150,000 Ggal/yr

World Wind Speeds at 100m

-180 -90 0 18090

0

-90

90

6

2

10

4

8

All wind worldwide: 1700 TW;

All wind over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 70-170 TW

World power demand 2030: 16.9 TW

Annual wind speed 100 m above topography (m/s) (global: 7.0; land: 6.1; sea: 7.3)

Archer and Jacobson (2005)www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/

80-m Wind Speeds From Data

World Surface Solar

All solar worldwide: 6500 TW;

All solar over land in high-solar locations~ 340 TW

World power demand 2030: 16.9 TW

Matching Renewable Supply to Demand in California by Aggregating Sites and Combining Different Renewables

CSP with Storage

Wind

Geothermal

Hydropower~Same as actual California hydro used June 12, 2005

Demand+T&D losses

Hart and Jacobson, 2010

Modeled power at one CSP plantJune 12, 2005

Modeled power at one wind farmJune 12, 2005 Modeled generation combining

renewables at all sites, June 12, 2005

Matching Renewable Supply to Demand in California by Aggregating Sites and Combining Different Renewables

For almost all hours, four renewables could power whole state.

Hart and Jacobson, 2010

Overall Ranking

Electric Power

Recommended

1. Wind

2. CSP

3. Geothermal

4. Tidal

5. PV

6. Wave

7. Hydroelectricity

Not Recommended

8. Nuclear

9. Coal-CCS

Vehicle Power

Recommended

1. Wind – BEVs

2. Wind – HFCVs

3. CSP – BEVs

4. Geothermal – BEVs

5. Tidal – BEVs

6. PV – BEVs

7. Wave – BEVs

8. Hydro – BEVs

Not Recommended

9. Nuclear – BEVs

10. Coal-CCS – BEVs

11. Corn ethanol

12. Cellulosic ethanol

Cleanest solutions to global warming, air pollution, energy security

Powering the World on Renewables

Global power demand 2010 (TW)Electricity: 2.2 Total: 12.5

Global overall power demand 2030 with current fuels (TW)Electricity: 3.5 Total: 16.9

Global overall power demand 2030 converting to wind-water-sun (WWS) and electricty/H2(TW)Electricity: 3.3 Total: 11.5

Conversion to electricity, H2 reduces power demand 30%

Number of Plants or Devices to Power World

Technology Percent Supply 2030 Number

5-MW wind turbines 50% 3.8 mill. (0.8% in place)0.75-MW wave devices 1 720,000100-MW geothermal plants 4 5350 (1.7% in place)1300-MW hydro plants 4 900 (70% in place)1-MW tidal turbines 1 490,0003-kW Roof PV systems 6 1.7 billion300-MW Solar PV plants 14 40,000300-MW CSP plants 20 49,000

____100%

Materials, CostsWind, solar

Materials (e.g., neodymium, silver, gallium) present challenges, but not limits.

Lithium for batteriesKnown land resources over 28 million tonnesEnough land supply for 52 million vehicles/yr for over 25 yrs. Ocean contains another 240 million tonnes.

Costs$100 trillion to replace world’s powerrecouped by electricity sale, with direct cost 4-10¢/kWhEliminates 2.5 million air pollution deaths/yearEliminates global warming, provides energy stability

Summary

Wind, CSP, geothermal, tidal, PV, wave, and hydro together withelectric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can eliminate globalwarming, air pollution, and energy instability.

Coal-CCS emits 41-53 times more carbon, and nuclear emits 9-17 times more carbon than wind. Nuclear increases the threat ofnuclear war and terrorism.

Corn and cellulosic ethanol result in far more global warming, airpollution, land degradation, and water loss than all other options.

SummaryConverting to Wind, Water, and Sun (WWS) and electricity/hydrogenwill reduce global power demand by 30%, eliminating 13,000 currentor future coal plants.

Materials are not limits although recycling will be needed.

The 2030 electricity cost should be similar to that of conventional newgeneration and lower when costs to society accounted for.

Barriers to overcome: up-front costs, transmission needs, lobbying,politics,

Energy Environ. Sci. (2008) doi:10.1039/b809990Cwww.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/revsolglobwarmairpol.htm

Scientific American, November (2009)www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/susenergy2030.html