a peek into the future of humanitarian logistics

Introduction, Background,and Purpose

Between 1975 and 2009, the numberof natural disasters and the numberof people affected by thesedisasters have both increasedalmost five-fold.1 During the sameperiod, the estimated economicdamage caused by natural disastersincreased almost twelve fold; in2009 it represented approximately$US43.44 billion.2 The increasingmagnitude, complexity, andunpredictability of theseemergencies have made it verydifficult for humanitarianorganisations to provide effectiverelief to the victims. At the heart ofany international disaster reliefoperation is the establishment andmanagement of an emergencysupply chain (Pettit & Beresford,2005). Considering the trends notedpreviously, the need forhumanitarian logistics services willneed to increase.

The logistics involved in disasterrelief operations is unique becauseit is subject to irregular demandpatterns and unusual constraints.The logistical needs ofhumanitarian organisationsfrequently exceed the capabilitiesof current emergency responseapproaches (Beamon & Kotleba,2006). Despite this, manyorganisations continue tounderestimate the importance oflogistics in disaster reliefoperations (Murray, 2005). Thehumanitarian sector lacksoperational knowledge and there isa shortage of investment intechnology, communication, andthe latest techniques, such asmathematical modelling (Beamon &Kotleba, 2006). One Europeanambassador at a post-2004 Indian

Following the 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean there has been

widespread recognition of the importance of humanitarian logistics

among its various stakeholders, including academics, humanitarian

organizations, practitioners, and donors. The purpose of this article is to

anticipate the numerous challenges that are likely to confront the field of

humanitarian logistics in the near future. The study found that

humanitarian organisations will increasingly need to achieve greater

levels of efficiency, professionalism, and quality in order to remain

relevant and competitive. To do this, these organisations will need to

identify the most practical and effective means of establishing

professional supply chain management and humanitarian logistics

arrangements that use technology and emerging best practices. This can

be achieved through the development of in-house capacity, partnership

arrangements with larger humanitarian organisations and the private

sector, or a combination of both.

A Peek into the Futureof Humanitarian Logistics:Forewarned Is Forearmed

4Supply Chain Forum An International Journal Vol. 11 - N°3 - 2010 www.supplychain-forum.com

Brian MajewskiGlobal Emergency Group,

Washington, D.C., United States of [email protected]

Kaustubh Anil NavangulDepartment of Strategy and Logistics, BI Norwegian

School of Management, Oslo, [email protected]

Ian HeighEverywhere - Humanitarian Response

and Logistics Services, Portugal & Scotland, U.K.

[email protected]

1. http://www.emdat.be/final-result-request, 7 November 2010.2. http://www.emdat.be/final-result-request, 7 November 2010.

Ocean tsunami donor conferencesaid, “We don't need a donor'sconference, we need a logisticsconference” (Thomas & Kopczak,2005, p.1). Similarly, a spokesmanfor Doctors Without Borders, inannouncing the organisation'sdecision not to accept any moremoney for the tsunami reliefoperations, said, “What are neededare supply managers withoutborders: people to sort goods,identify priorities, track deliveries,and direct the traffic of a reliefeffort in full gear” (Thomas &Kopczak, 2005, p.1). Humanitarianlogistics, the function that ischarged with ensuring the efficientand cost-effective flow and storageof goods and materials for thepurpose of alleviating the sufferingof vulnerable people, came of ageduring this tsunami relief effort(Thomas & Kopczak, 2005).

The recent increase in awarenessabout the critical importance of humanitarian logistics for effective disaster relief has led to a corresponding increase in academic research intohumanitarian logistics. Appropriately,much of this research has focusedon the various challenges thesector is currently experiencing.The research has also focused, inlarge part, on the key humanitarianorganisations without looking atthe full range of actors involved inhumanitarian logistics. Theapproach to date has tended to bereactive: mostly learning from pastmistakes and finding ways to adaptto the changing demands of thissector. Indeed, several scholarshave highlighted the importance ofgeneral preparedness activities.However, no effort has been made to broadly anticipate thechallenges and opportunities thatare likely to confront this sector inthe future. Attempts to anticipatethe challenges and opportunities in advance could allow allstakeholders to respond moreeffectively to future crisissituations. This study represents astep in this direction.

Section two of this article describesthe research design for the studyand section three presents thefindings derived from both primary

and secondary data sources. These findings are analysed insection four, and section fivepresents some conclusions andrecommendations.

Research Design

This article does not claim to makeperfectly accurate predictions;however, it does investigate someof the important factors and trendsthat are likely to shape the future ofthe humanitarian logistics sector.The research and analysis wasoriginally commissioned by theInternational Federation of RedCross and Red Crescent Societies'(IFRC) Logistics Department inorder to inform the development ofits long-term strategy and it has

subsequently been broadened tomake it applicable to thehumanitarian logistics sector atlarge. Figure 1 details themethodology framework.

In line with the purpose of thisarticle, as described in section one,the following questions weredeveloped to identify the scope anddirection of the data collection andanalysis:• What is the current and likely

future scope and size of thehumanitarian industry and itslogistics component?

• What are the current and likely future locations of the mostvulnerable people?

• Which hazards are currently the most prevalent and likely to bethe most prevalent in the future?


Figure 1Methodology framework

• What are the current and likely future primary activities relatedto humanitarian logisticspreparedness and response?

• What are the current and likely future global logistics resourcerequirements and capacity?

• What funding is available today for humanitarian logisticsactivities and what are the likelytrends that will affect theavailability of funding?

Having established the keyquestions, the appropriate primaryand secondary sources of datawere identified. The secondarydata were obtained from theliterature review and the primarydata were collected from theinterviews conducted for thisresearch. The data weretriangulated, which led to a set offindings that were analysed,resulting in the creation of a set of recommendations. Theserecommendations were then cross-referenced with the originalquestions to confirm that they hadbeen addressed. Each step of themethodology is described in thefollowing subsections.

The United Nations World FoodProgram (WFP), the lead agency forthe Logistics Cluster,3 is animportant player in today's globalhumanitarian logistics landscape.IFRC is the world's largesthumanitarian organisation and itsprogrammes reached over 30million vulnerable people in 2005(Jahre et al., 2009). Furthermore,IFRC's initiative to establish theregional logistics units (RLUs) hasmade an important contributiontowards raising the profile ofhumanitarian logistics worldwide(Jahre et al., 2009). The presentstudy acknowledges the significantroles played by these two playersand, when appropriate, has tried togain deeper insights into how theyfunction.

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Qualitative and semi-structuredinterview guidelines were appliedduring collection of the primarydata. These guidelines wereadapted slightly during the courseof research because of successively

gained insights and also to followup on key points made duringinterviews. Three main sourceswere used: • Academia, research institutions,

and strategists• Large institutional donors• Commercial logistics firms

or philanthropic foundationsestablished by such firms

A unique questionnaire wasdeveloped for each group. Alongwith the questions, the reasons fortheir inclusion were also clarified,when appropriate. The interviewedstakeholders were chosen on thebasis of rigorous selection criteria,as shown in Table 1. Appendix Iprovides the list of interviewees.

Interviews were primarilyconducted by telephone, with allrelevant details being dulyrecorded and organisedsystematically in a data file forfurther analysis.

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Qualitative and statistical datawere collected through a literaturereview in order to provide abaseline of the state of knowledgeon a topic and to stimulate ideas,both substantive andmethodological (Ticehurst & Veal,2000). The review was conducted inthree steps. First, publications wereidentified and selected from a rangeof sources, including the following:• Operational evaluations and case

studies, especially those thatinclude details on volume/throughput/timeliness andbottlenecks in supply chains andlast-mile delivery

• Studies and reports on the subject of humanitarian spending

(preparedness and relief) andefficiency

• Hazard, vulnerability, and disaster risk data and mappingstudies (e.g., World Bank/ProVention publications)

• Annual reports and industry reviews of corporate logisticscapacities, volumes, and costs

• Disaster incidence, frequency, and impact data (e.g., EM-DAT)

• Data on funding and global studies of humanitarian financing

• Other studies and reports on external stakeholders' expectationsof humanitarian logistics

In the second step, the mostrelevant and updated sources werechosen for closer scrutiny and usein this research. By criticallyreviewing the available literature,an attempt was made to establishthe following aspects ofhumanitarian logistics: • Main characteristics and recent

trends• Important factors shaping the

future of this sector• Possible trends in the future

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The information collected from theliterature review and the interviewswas duly categorised andincorporated in tables. The keyissues were identified and the datawere compared and contrastedacross stakeholder groups andbetween primary and secondarydata in order to produce thefollowing findings and analysis.


3. http://www.logcluster.org/about/logistics-cluster, 3 June 2010.

Table 1Criteria for selection of stakeholders for interviewing

Findings

The results and findings describedfollowing are organised in line withthe questions identified in sectiontwo.

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The scope and size of humanitarianlogistics is driven by demand thatis based on vulnerability andhazards. The Emergency EventsDatabase (EM-DAT), a globaldisaster database maintained bythe Centre for Research on theEpidemiology of Disasters (CRED)in Brussels, records more than sixhundred disasters globally eachyear. EM-DAT's figures show thatthe number of natural disasters hasincreased five-fold since 1975.During the same period, theestimated economic damagecaused by natural disasters hasincreased almost twelve-fold.Academic and researchstakeholders in humanitarianlogistics consistently agreed withthese findings. Table 2, Figure 2,and Figure 3 show the documentedincrease in the number and effect ofdisasters.

Each bar in Figure 2 represents thenumber of disasters recorded in theEM-DAT database for a given year.This graph shows a significantgrowth in the number of disasterssince 1975.

As a consequence of the increasingnumber of natural disasters, thenumber of people affected by thesedisasters has also increasedsignificantly. It should be noted thatalthough the “numbers affected”have been increasing, the numberof people killed by natural disastersappears to have declined steeplyover the last few decades. Figure 4and Figure 5 demonstrate thesetrends graphically. Ironically,higher survival rates may actually


Table 2Natural disasters and their consequences4

Figure 2Natural disasters reported, 1975-20095

Figure 3Estimated damages (US$ billions) caused by reported naturaldisasters: 1975-20096

4. http://www.emdat.be/final-result-request, 7November 2010.5. http://www.emdat.be/sites/default/files/Trends/natural/world_1900_2009/2a.jpg, 5November 2010.6. http://www.emdat.be/sites/default/files/Trends/natural/world_1900_2009/2d.jpg, 5November 2010.

place a larger burden onhumanitarian agencies andgovernments, which must shoulderthe costs of evacuating, sheltering,feeding, and restoring livelihoodsfor survivors. It should also be

noted that data on mortalityattributable to conflicts, which isnot reliably available on a globalbasis, may show trends that arequite different from those fornatural disasters (Borton, 2009).

There seems to be a generalconsensus and awareness amongthe stakeholders, particularlyamong the academic and researchgroups, with respect to thesetrends.

When stakeholders were askedspecifically about the percentage ofcosts attributed to logistics indisaster relief operations, theyoffered differing views on thismatter. Some were not aware of thefigures and others felt that thesecosts depended on the context inwhich the operations are carriedout. According to the 2009 GlobalHumanitarian Assistance Report,9

the international resourcesallocated to humanitarianassistance totalled just over US$15billion in 2007 and were in theregion of US$18 billion in 2008.Furthermore, according to claimsmade in academic publications,about 80 percent of disaster reliefoperations consist of logisticalefforts (Van Wassenhove, 2006).

Based on the size of the overallhumanitarian industry andestimates of the percentageattributable to logistics efforts(ranging from 40 to 80 percent), thesize of humanitarian logistics infinancial terms is probablysomewhere between US$7 billionand US$14 billion per year.

The scope of activities performedin humanitarian logistics withinindividual organisations appears to vary widely based on capacities and competencies aswell as partnerships andoutsourcing arrangements. As awhole, however, the scope ofhumanitarian logistics is extensive,spanning all geographic regionsand encompassing all elements of supply chain management,including planning, training,procurement, warehouse management,transport, distribution, tracking,monitoring, and evaluation ofperformance.


Figure 4Number of people reported killed by natural disasters: 1975-20097

Figure 5Number of people reported affected by natural disasters: 1975-20098

7. http://www.emdat.be/sites/default/files/Trends/natural/world_1900_2009/2b.jpg, 5November 2010.8. http://www.emdat.be/sites/default/files/Trends/natural/world_1900_2009/2c.jpg, 5November 2010.9. Development Initiatives. (2009).

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Vulnerability, which is closelylinked to poverty, has beenidentified as one of the maindeterminants of humanitarian risk.Climate change has also beenidentified in recent years as aglobal driver of risk that has amagnifying effect on vulnerability(Global Assessment Report onDisaster Risk Reduction 2009, citedin Borton, 2009). According to theCentre for Research on theEpidemiology of Disasters (CRED),68 percent of deaths and 89 percentof all economic losses between2000 and 2007 resulted fromhazards that were exacerbated

because of climate change (Ehrhartet al, 2008). Concerns regardingclimate change were alsohighlighted by the majority ofinterviewed stakeholders in thepresent study. Accordingly, it isvital to understand vulnerability inthe context of climate change.

There are different notions of whathuman vulnerability is and how it isrelated to risk and adaptivecapacity, especially in relation toclimate change. Ehrhart et al.(2008) argued that humanvulnerability refers to thelikelihood that individuals,communities, or societies will beharmed by a hazard. Here thefactors shaping human

vulnerability are divided into five groups-natural, human, social,financial, and physical-andconstitute the basis for the humanvulnerability index. Ehrhart et al.(2008) combined this withinformation on the distribution ofhazards to identify climate change-risk hotspots.

Figure 6 shows the globaldistribution of human vulnerability.The areas with the highest levels ofvulnerability are located in threemain regions:• Africa, particularly the Sahel, the

Horn of Africa, and central Africa,although there are isolatedpockets of high vulnerabilityacross much of the continent

• Central/south Asia, particularly Iran/Afghanistan/Pakistan/Indiaand the Caspian region

• Southeast Asia, particularly Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, andIndonesia

In addition to these locations thestakeholders also identified theMiddle East as an area that couldbe highly vulnerable to naturalhazards (especially drought) aswell as conflict-related hazards.

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EM-DAT provides rich data on theoccurrence and effects of over18,000 mass disasters in the worldfrom 1900 to present. In terms ofthe number of people affected,floods, droughts, and storms seemto have been the most destructivehazards since the 1960s (see Table3).

Historical trends related to thefrequency and effect of disastersmay not be sufficient predictors ofthe future when forecastingincorporates the effect of climatechange. Studies indicate thathuman-induced climate change ismodifying patterns of extreme


10. http://www.emdat.be/final-result-request, 6 November 2010.11. Rockfall caused by deviations in thenormal water cycle and/or overflow of bodiesof water caused by wind set-up.12. Events such as rockfall, avalanche,landslide, or subsidence originating from solidearth.

Figure 6Human vulnerability (Ehrhart et al., 2008)

Table 3Natural disasters and their consequences10

weather, including floods, cyclones,and droughts. In many cases,climate change is making thesehazards more intense, morefrequent, less predictable, andlonger lasting (Ehrhart et al., 2008).Not surprisingly, these unfortunatedevelopments are increasing thestrain on the response capacity ofhumanitarian actors.

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Research also suggests thatpopulation trends and settlementpatterns will significantly affect theoverall and geographic specificityof demand for humanitarianlogistics during the next fewdecades.

Population growth is occurring at adisproportionate level in thedeveloping world, which also facessome of the most prevalent hazardsand likely effects of climate change.From 1900 to 2009, 86 percent ofglobal population growth tookplace in the developing world.Predictions for the next half-century are dire-the population ofSub-Saharan Africa alone isexpected to double by 2050 and thesame is true for the least developedcountries, as a category. Someparticularly vulnerable countriesface even faster growth; forexample, the population of Ethiopiais expected to triple by 2050.Concentrations of populationgrowth are predicted to be highestin urban areas, many of which arein coastal cities most at risk fromclimate change-induced disasters(Haub, 2009).

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There is growing recognition in thehumanitarian sector that disasterrisk must be addressed as adevelopment issue rather than one


Table 4Humanitarian logistics activities in preparedness and responseand related challenges (adapted from Petit and Beresford,2005)

13. UN Humanitarian Response Depot(UNHRD) is a WFP network able to deliverhumanitarian relief items worldwide within24/48 hours (www.logisticscluster.org/org/about/depots, 6 June 2010).

of humanitarian assistance only(Dilley et al., 2005). Untilvulnerability and, consequently,risks, are reduced, countries withhigh proportions of population orgross domestic product (GDP) inhotspots are particularly likely toincur repeated disaster-relatedlosses and costs (Dilley et al.,2005). In this context, the linkagesbetween preparedness andresponse activities are vitallyimportant and, if managedproperly, have a huge potential toreduce the risks and effect ofdisasters. Table 4 summarises therecurring themes that highlight themajor concerns related to theseactivities, both in the literature andin the reactions from thestakeholders. In most cases, theseactivities are interdependent andmust be properly coordinated inorder for the disaster reliefoperations to be carried outeffectively and efficiently.

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It is difficult to measure globalhumanitarian logistics capacity andcompetence. It is misleading toapply the 80-percent estimate ofthe percentage of disaster reliefefforts that can be categorised aslogistics to the overall size of thehumanitarian industry. This isbecause capacities and expertiseare highly concentrated among aselect few large internationalhumanitarian actors and alsowithin the commercial sector,which handles a significant amountof this work through contracts.

Spending is also a poordeterminant of capacity within thehumanitarian sector because ofwhere and when the balance ofspending takes place. Based ondata from the UN Office for theCoordination of HumanitarianAffairs' Financial Tracking Service,approximately 2.1 percent of allinternational project allocationsfrom 2001-2008 were dedicated topreparedness and risk reduction,with the remainder dedicated toresponse, recovery, and traditionaldevelopment. Approximately 51percent of preparedness fundingwas allocated to countries in Asia

and 91 percent was channelledthrough UN mechanisms; thisleaves less than 9 percent forgovernments, NGOs, and the RedCross Red Crescent Movement.Spending levels fluctuate widelyfrom year to year, typically comingafter major sudden-onset disasters(Humanitarian Outcomes, 2009).

This suggests that the capacity forhumanitarian logistics follows thesame boom-bust curve that theindustry as a whole often follows;capacity and contracting slowlyramps up then grows exponentiallyduring the weeks immediatelyfollowing a disaster but is notsustained afterwards. However, anumber of key actors andqualitative information on theircapacities have been identifiedthrough this research, whichwarrants further description (seeTable 5).

Initiatives to assess capacity

Further efforts are being made tounderstand the capacityrequirement at various levels. TheUN Logistics Cluster attempts toachieve this through its logisticscapacity assessment (LCA)initiative. LCAs are formalassessments designed to obtain a fundamental understanding of a country's or region'stransportation infrastructure.14

LCAs are operational in nature andconcentrate on important elementsof logistics links, such asport/airport capacities, road andrail networks, storage facilities,labour rates, local transportationresources, and so on.15 LCAs areconducted in areas that areunfamiliar to the humanitariancommunity or where updatedcurrent information is deemed asvital. LCAs for various regions arethen maintained in an LCA databank16 and updated regularly.

Another important source forunderstanding the global logisticscapacity is the LogisticsPerformance Index (LPI), whichwas first published in 2007 by theWorld Bank (Figure 7). The LPIprovides a comprehensive pictureof supply chain performance fromcustoms procedures, logisticscosts, and infrastructure quality tothe ability to track and traceshipments, timeliness in reachingtheir destination, and thecompetence of the domesticlogistics industry (Arvis et al.,2007).


14. www.logisticscluster.org/tools/lca/lca-guidelines, 6 December 2009.15. www.logisticscluster.org/tools/lca/lca-guidelines, 6 December 2009.16. www.logisticscluster.org/tools/lca/lca-guideline, 6 December 2009.

Table 5Key actors and their respective capacities

The added value of the LPI is that itprovides a global benchmark oflogistics efficiency and servicequality (Arvis et al., 2007).Countries with high LPI rankingsare typically key players in thelogistics industry and those at thebottom are often trapped in avicious circle of overregulation,poor quality services, andunderinvestment (Arvis et al.,2007). In this context, it is notentirely surprising that thecountries with low LPI rankings(such as Afghanistan, Myanmar,Chad, and Tajikistan) have alsobeen identified as some of the mostvulnerable nations.

Another factor that is likely to havean effect on the global logisticscapacity is the expected emergenceof humanitarian organisations fromthe BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia,India, and China). As the worldtransitions from a unipolar world,dominated by United States, to amultipolar world, the significanceof BRIC countries in global affairs isexpected to rise appreciably. As the BRIC economies grow, the amount of overseas developmentassistance (ODA) they provide isalso expected to grow (Borton,2009). It is also possible that thesecountries will provide new playersin the humanitarian sector, therebyadding to the global capacity.

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The amount of funding available forhumanitarian logistics is primarilya function of overall preparednessand response budgets. The resultsof these interviews, combined withthe literature review, show thatdonors seldom specificallyconsider logistics when makingfunding decisions.


Figure 7Logistics Performance Index (Arvis et al., 2007)

Table 6Global humanitarian assistance by source/type (US$)18,19

Table 7Total humanitarian assistance by donor governments in2006/2007 and contributions if any for activities related tologistics20,21

17. Development Initiatives. (2009). 18. Development Initiatives. (2007/2008).19. Development Initiatives. (2009).20. Development Initiatives. (2007/2008).21. Development Initiatives. (2009). 22. UN Humanitarian Response Depot(UNHRD) is a WFP Network able to deliverhumanitarian relief items worldwide within24/48 hours (www.logisticscluster.org/org/about/depots, 6 June 2010).

Although the 80-percent estimate isan important way of identifying theoverall importance of logistics,more detailed work should be doneto break down logistics spendinginto various stages of supply chainmanagement in order to identifythe optimal amount spent onpreparedness systems andinfrastructure versus procurement,purchasing, and transportation ofspecific relief supplies.

Although overall humanitarianassistance funding has generallyincreased since 2000, moststakeholders felt that this trend islikely to slow down as fundinglevels reach a plateau, partly due tothe global economic crisis. Thedata presented in Table 6 provide asnapshot of the total humanitarianassistance funding from the top-ranked donors in 2006 and 2007.

Further examination of the dataregarding specific governmentdonor contributions shows thattwo-thirds of the top fifteengovernment donors in terms of

humanitarian assistance havesupported large humanitarianorganisations that also providelogistics support to members andother partners. As indicated insection two, WFP and IFRC bothplay pivotal roles in today's globalhumanitarian logistics landscape.Table 7 indicates whether theyreceived any assistance for some oftheir activities related to logistics.

Interviews and the literature reviewboth highlighted the importance ofbroadening the existing pool ofdonors for humanitarian assistanceand logistics. With aid budgetsremaining flat or growing at aslower rate and with greatercompetition for resources, it wasfelt that the best option would be totap into emerging economies andcountries. The BRIC countries areexpected to slowly but steadilyincrease their contributions todevelopment and humanitarianassistance as a means ofcomplementing their economic andpolitical interests (Borton, 2009).

Analysis and Implications

This section analyses andinterprets the data collectedregarding the current and likelyfuture of humanitarian logistics. Italso highlights the potentialopportunities and consequences oftrends for humanitarian actors.

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Globally, the humanitarian systemspends $US15 to $US20 billion eachyear,23 and official developmentassistance (ODA) tripled between1990 and 2006. Using coverage ofthe UN Consolidated AppealsProcess as a proxy, only two-thirdsof the required assistance isprovided each year.25 Over twohundred million people are affectedby disasters each year25, withapproximately sixty million peoplerequiring humanitarian assistance.Based on the appeals coverage, anestimated twenty-five millionpeople who need humanitarianassistance do not receive adequateassistance in a given year.

Given the trends and predictionsdiscussed in section three,humanitarian needs are likely to increase dramatically over thenext half century. Populationgrowth in the developing world,combined with urbanisation, adisproportionate prevalence ofhazards, and climate change, willalmost certainly lead to increasedhumanitarian needs. Table 8 notesthe projected changes that willaffect demand for humanitarianassistance.

Without significant changes to thecapacity and/or efficiency of thehumanitarian logistics sector, theanalysis in Table 8 suggests agrowing gap between the expectedneeds and the industry's capacity


Table 8Present and future projections assuming no significant changesin the current approach

Table 9Projected growth in demand for humanitarian assistance

23. Development Initiatives. (2009).24. Development Initiatives. (2009). 25. http://www.emdat.be/final-result-request, 7November 2010.26. United Nations Population Division: WorldPopulation Prospects Database 2008-mediumvariant.27. Haub. (2009). 28. Keane. (2003).

to meet them. When the analysis ofthe current situation (volumes,gaps, and growth trends) isamplified by demographic trendsand the predicted effect of climatechange, and assuming there are nosignificantly different capacities,the demand for humanitarianassistance and the number ofpeople needing but not receivingassistance is likely to growexponentially, as depicted in Table 9.

Because the growth in resourcesand capacity is not currentlyprojected to keep pace with thegrowth in need, the percentage ofpeople affected by disasters whoneed assistance but do not receiveit is estimated to increase by 50percent or more, which will leave avery problematic gap to close.

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The number of NGOs has increaseddramatically over the past 20 years(Keane, 2003). Thousands of newNGOs have been established to fillthe perceived gap in coverage aswell as shortfalls in efficiency andeffectiveness. This can also be seenin the growth of the number of field-based aid workers. From 1997 to2005, the number of field-based aidworkers grew by 77 percent, from136,209 to 241,654 (Borton, 2009).The end result is counterintuitive:reduced coverage of humanitarianassistance needs due tofragmentation, duplication, costs,and time lost due to increasingcoordination challenges.

The present study has found thatthe number of actors is notexpected to continue growingbecause of oversaturation andcomplications of fragmentation ofthe marketplace. One medium- tolong-term caveat to this predictionis the possibility that the number ofNGOs in BRIC countries willincrease at the same time asWestern organisations contract orconsolidate.

The growing number of actors isnot matched by a growth in overallhumanitarian logistics capacity.Many new and smaller NGOs simply

lack the resources to establish andmaintain supply chain managementsystems. As a result, it is importantto consider humanitarian actors inthree distinct groups:• Organisations that are too small

or unwilling to maintain theirown logistics function

• Organisations that are capable of managing and resourcing theirown logistics requirements

• Organisations that are large enough and capable of managingand resourcing their logisticsrequirements and those of othersfor a fee

This study also shows significantincreasing interest and motivationon the part of the commercialsector in becoming involved inhumanitarian logistics. Althoughthey are somewhat motivated byphilanthropic inclinations, mostcommercial actors do not expectsignificant growth in corporatesocial responsibility. However, thelarger commercial logisticsproviders all noted an expectationthat they would grow their corebusinesses by providing supplychain management, especiallytransportation and warehousemanagement services, to thehumanitarian sector, based on aprofit motivation.

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Analysis of the collected datasuggests a number of significantpotential changes in howhumanitarian logistics services willbe delivered.

Limited availability of funding isslowing growth in humanitarianassistance budgets and increasingneeds will place more pressure onhumanitarian agencies to do morewith less. The most positiveoutcome of these trends could bethe adoption of technologies,coordination processes, and more efficient approaches byhumanitarian logistics actors.

Smaller humanitarian organisationswill be forced to look for cost-effective ways to manage theirsupply chains. Many will choose tooutsource these requirements and

keep their core focus onprogramme design and servicedelivery. By focusing on front-endassessments, targeting, and last-mile delivery, organisations canbest apply their strengths whilecollaborating with larger actors tomanage specialised logistics andsupply chain services.

It is likely that two primarycategories of humanitarian logisticsproviders will control the market inthis future environment:commercial actors and largehumanitarian organisations thatoffer highly professionalized supplychain management solutions.These two categories will notoperate exclusively; instead, theywill form a codependent system tocover existing and future gaps. Forexample, the HRD system alreadycontracts with commercial logisticscompanies to provide freight-forwarding services and somewarehouse management.

Although commercial actors arewell identified at this stage, there isroom for additional, regionallyspecific commercial actors to fillgaps between the internationalmovement of goods to theintraregional movement of goods.Anecdotal evidence suggests thatthere is a particular gap to fill inAfrica in this regard.

Large humanitarian actors whomight offer supply chainmanagement solutions to thehumanitarian community as awhole are less defined at this stage.Although WFP has initiated work inthis area with the establishment ofHRDs, this system alone does notseem adequate to meet the currentand future demand forhumanitarian logistics services.Many NGOs as well as the RedCross Movement have reservationsabout dependency on the UN,which leaves room for one or morelarge humanitarian actors to set upcomplementary logistics serviceplatforms.

Last-mile delivery remains one ofthe most problematic areas forhumanitarian logistics. AlthoughNGOs and the Red Cross/RedCrescent Movement are considered


to be most able to provide last-miledelivery, there is much room forimprovement, which may bebeyond the scope of theseorganisations' resources.

In the emerging system, all primaryhumanitarian logistics actors willface market pressure to increasetheir efficiency and effectiveness.Information technologies-especially those related to trackingand tracing goods from the time oforder, procurement, shipment, anddelivery-seem to offer the mostimmediate opportunity to reduceinefficiencies and providetransparency. This transparencywill be critical as the few remainingsignificant humanitarian logisticsproviders will be increasinglyexpected to measure and showvalue for money, especially in termsof timeliness to mobilise anddeliver required relief goods.

With regard to the personnelinvolved in humanitarian logistics,there will be an increasing shifttowards professionalisation.Consolidating humanitarianlogistics in a few commercial andhumanitarian providers will enablethose entities to demand and investin the best trained and mostqualified professionals. This shouldlead to increasing partnershipswith academic institutions toensure high calibre logisticsprofessionals as well as increasinginvestments in training and staffdevelopment to perpetuatecontinual improvement.

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The research conducted for thisstudy suggests a somewhatsobering picture of resourceavailability to fund overallhumanitarian assistance, andhumanitarian logistics in particular.As funding becomes morecompetitive among organisations,humanitarian logistics units willface increasing pressure tomeasure and justify their costs andseek lower costs but higher-qualityalternatives. Donors willincreasingly monitor theperformance of humanitarianlogistics as an indicator on which

to base future funding decisions.Those humanitarian actors that donot perform or that choose toperform at high costs and lowscales will find it difficult to attractfunding in the future.

Findings from the interviewsconducted for this study suggest anincreasing preference for providingfunding to pooled funds such as theUN Central Emergency ResponseFund (CERF) or the IFRC DisasterRelief Emergency Fund (DREF).Donors find such funding to besimpler and more cost effectivebecause it helps them reduce theirprogramme design, tendering, andoversight requirements.Organisations that offer suchpooled funding or frameworkagreement funding opportunitiesmay be best positioned to capturethe shrinking pool of funds.

Donors have also expressedsignificant frustration with theproliferation of actors and theresulting duplication andcoordination challenges. Somedonors noted that they areincreasingly putting pressure onNGOs to consolidate or come upwith collaborative fundingproposals to lessen this problem.Networks of humanitarian actorsand joint initiatives are likely to farebetter given donor interest inreducing the number of actors thatprovide the same assistance in thesame emergency operation.

Some donors are paying increasingattention to prevention,preparedness, and risk reductionafter realising that poor investmentin these stages leads to chronicvulnerability and excessive costs.Significant initiatives that focus onpreparing communities, countries,and regions for emergencies,especially the expected effect ofclimate change, are likely to have abetter chance of attractingresources that were previously onlyavailable during emergencies.

Conclusions andRecommendations

The main conclusion of thisresearch is that the need forhumanitarian assistance due to

disasters and other complicatingfactors such as climate change isgrowing faster than the capacity ofthe humanitarian industry and theresources of traditional donors. Inorder for organisations to remainrelevant and true to their mission,they will need to continueimproving their capacities, whetherin-house or outsourced, and adoptinnovative and forward-lookingstrategies. The followingrecommendations offer some keyideas for consideration and furtherresearch related to humanitarianlogistics.

Recommendation 1: Humanitarian actors shouldincrease efficiency and costeffectiveness through investmentin key technologies and humanresources.

Developments in technology havebeen identified as one of the keydrivers that will influence thefuture of humanitarianorganisations. Advances intechnologies such as GIS, mobilecommunications, ubiquitouscomputing, and clean watertechnology are expected to changethe way logistics services will bedelivered in the next fifteen totwenty years. However, it is not justsophisticated technologies thathave the potential to help improvethis sector. Humanitarianorganisations must find creativeand innovative ways to usetechnologies that are currentlyavailable and those that are moremodest but highly effective. In thisrespect, there is an opportunity forthese organisations to learn fromtheir commercial counterparts.Track and trace, inventorymanagement, and warehousemanagement are some of the manylogistics functions that can bebetter managed by using existingtechnologies.

There is a shortage of well-trainedlogistics professionals in thehumanitarian sector. The frequencyand scale of disasters is expectedto increase in the future due toclimate change and related causes.Accordingly, humanitarianorganisations will need more andbetter qualified personnel to


manage the increasingly complexdisaster relief operations.

Recommendation 2: Humanitarian actors shouldincrease their capacity andreach individually or throughpartnerships in order to meet thegrowing needs caused bynational and internationaldisasters.

Those actors with adequate scaleand capacity should consideroffering their services to otherhumanitarian actors. Differentcombinations of in-house capacityand prenegotiated agreements withcommercial sector logisticscompanies should be explored inorder to maximise strategicadvantage and effectiveness. Thehumanitarian industry as a wholemust identify ways to expand theexisting capacities of regional andsubregional logistics platforms inregions that face the highestvulnerability and risks.

The lack of coordination andcollaboration among various actorsinvolved in humanitarianassistance continues to limit theefficiency and effectiveness ofhumanitarian logistics. Thisproblem is exacerbated by theincreasing number of actors in thisfield. Larger humanitarianorganisations that have significantexpertise and experience shouldtake the lead in the formation ofcommon platforms where membersare able to share logisticsexpertise, assets, and otherexpensive resources. Joining forcesand formulating coordinatedstrategies will enable both largeand small organisations to optimisetheir capacities and performance.

The success of disaster reliefoperations depends on the qualityof local resources, who are the firstresponders to immediate needswhen outside assistance is stillbeing mobilised. The quality oflocal response depends on theeffectiveness of the plan thatgoverns their deployment andusage.

The cost and speed of disasterrelief operations is often largely

determined by the distancesinvolved. Transport infrastructure,communication networks, theavailability of fuel, and theexistence of indigenous capabilitiescan decide the success of ahumanitarian logistics operation.The problem of last-mile delivery isalso largely a consequence ofunderdeveloped logisticscapacities at the local level. Allthese issues indicate theimportance of developing locallogistics capacities. In order tosucceed, humanitarian logisticsplayers must achieve a balancebetween centralisation anddecentralisation of their capacitiesand resources while alsostrengthening their local partners.

The commercial sector intends toincrease its volume of business byboosting its involvement inhumanitarian logistics. Thosehumanitarian organisations thatprenegotiate agreements withlogistics companies and preparethe system components that triggerprocurement or transportation willbe more efficient and cost effectiveas will those that receive goods atthe other end. Competition with thecommercial sector in some areas isnot likely to succeed.

Recommendation 3: Humanitarian actors must designperformance measurementsystems to monitor, manage, andaccount for the efficiency andeffectiveness of their logisticalsystems. Institutional and privatedonors should increasingly makefunding decisions based onproven effectiveness and costefficiency and should maketargeted investments in logisticsplatforms and systems thatincrease reach, coordination,efficiency, and effect.

If they expect to receivecontributions, small, medium, andlarge actors must build robustperformance measurement metricsinto their logistics platforms and/oragreements with humanitarian andcommercial service providers.Contracts and service provisionpartnerships should only berenewed with reliable and high-performing providers.

Additional research should beconducted in order to developindustry-wide performance metricsand to thoroughly measure thedegree to which effective andefficient relief and humanitarianassistance depend on the efficiencyand effectiveness of logistics andsupply chain management systems.This research could provideevidence that would allowindividual organisations,partnerships, and logisticscoordination mechanisms to mountawareness-raising efforts amongmanagers, leaders, and donorsregarding the critical importance ofhumanitarian logistics to theoverall effectiveness ofhumanitarian assistance.

Donors should fund independentresearch and evaluations in orderto assess the performance oflogistics and supply chainmanagement based onstandardised measures andindicators. Combined withevidence from individualorganisations and coalitions, suchresearch should form the basis forfunding decisions. Following abaseline study of performanceacross the humanitarian sector,donors should coordinate efforts toinvest in the most promisingshared-service arrangements. Thiswould help encourage capacitybuilding, increasing reach andconsolidation for effectivenesswithin the humanitarian logisticssector. Potential donors in the BRICgroup and other emergingnontraditional donors should beencouraged to participate in suchefforts.


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Websites

• EM-DAT: The OFDA/CREDInternational Disaster Database -www.emdat.be, Université Catholiquede Louvain, Brussels (Belgium).• LCA Guidelines, HumanitarianLogistics Information,www.logisticscluster.org/tools/lca/lca-guidelines• About the Logistics Cluster,www.logcluster.org/about/logistics-cluster• About the Humanitarian ResponseDepot (UNHRD).www.logisticscluster.org/org/about/depots


About the authors

Brian Majewski is the principal for Global Emergency Group's (GEG) cross-functional strategy practice. He has years of experience designing policy andrepresenting interests with executive and legislative branches of government, international, and nongovernmental organizations and leaders from theprivate sector. His GEG client work includes change management, preparedness/planning/risk reduction, disaster management strategies, andmonitoring and evaluation. He has also supported domestic and international disaster response operations including the September 11 attacks, tropicalstorm Allison in Texas and Louisiana, Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Mitch, and the south Asian tsunami. With more than fourteen years at the leadershiplevel, Brian has led negotiations and engagements around the world, in Canada, the United States, Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, Asia, andEurope. Brian was instrumental in negotiating the Third Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions for the Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement.

Kaustubh Anil Navangul is currently pursuing his PhD at BI Norwegian School of Management in Oslo, Norway. The main theme of his research isregarding strategy development in humanitarian logistics. He has about five years of international work experience in supply chain management, havingworked in India, the Middle East, and Europe. He has been involved at various times in business development, operations, project management, andconsultancy. Kaustubh has completed his postgraduate studies in computer management as well as in supply chain management.

Ian Heigh has been involved in delivering international humanitarian assistance for over fifteen major disasters since the mid-1990s, working as alogistician and response manager mainly with the International Red Cross (IFRC) and the United Nations. This has been interspersed with a career incommercial logistics.Outside of disaster operations, some notable achievements include managing a team to re-engineer the IFRC's global supply chain, leading to theorganization winning the European Supply Chain Award for Excellence, and the award of best thesis when gaining his MSc in Logistics and Supply ChainManagement at Cranfield University, United Kingdom.Ian has recently returned from working in Haiti, where he was logistics coordinator for the IFRC, and is involved in setting up his new company,Everywhere Disaster Relief. He is also undertaking a PhD focusing on improving the way actors providing logistics services work together in disasterresponse.



Appendix 1

List of stakeholders interviewed for the study

Appendix 2

List of abbreviations

a peek into the future of humanitarian logistics

Documents