a nuclear turning pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ans.neimm_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf ·...

33
A Nuclear Turning Point Daniel B. Poneman President & CEO October 3, 2019 American Nuclear Society & Institute of Nuclear Materials Management

Upload: others

Post on 26-Sep-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

A Nuclear Turning Point

Daniel B. PonemanPresident & CEO

October 3, 2019

American Nuclear Society & Institute of Nuclear Materials Management

Page 2: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

Forward-Looking Statements

Disclaimer: My commentary and responses to your questions may contain forward-looking statements, including my outlook on the remainder of the year and future periods, and Centrus undertakes no obligation to update any such statement to reflect later developments. Factors that could cause actual results to vary materially from those discussed today include changes in the nuclear energy industry, pricing trends and demand in the uranium and enrichment markets and their impact on Centrus’ profitability, the competitive environment for Centrus’ products and services, the impact and potential extended duration of the current supply/demand imbalance in the market for low-enriched uranium, risks related to trade barriers and contract terms that limit Centrus’ ability to deliver LEU to customers, risks related to actions that may be taken by the U.S. government or other governments that could affect Centrus’ ability or the ability of Centrus’ sources of supply to perform under contract obligations, including the imposition of sanctions, restrictions or other requirements, as well as those provided in Centrus’ most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent reports as filed by Centrus with the SEC.

Industry / Market Data: Industry and market data used in this presentation have been obtained from industry publications and sources as well as from research reports prepared for other purposes. We have not independently verified the data obtained from these sources and cannot assure you of the data’s accuracy or completeness.

2

Page 3: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

INCREASEworld electricity generation

by 100 percent

In the next 30 years:REDUCE

emissions from electricity generation by almost 100 percent

Page 4: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

INCREASEworld electricity generation

by 100 percent

REDUCE emissions from electricity

generation by almost 100 percent

In the next 30 years:

Page 5: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

5

California: the “Renewable-Only” Game Plan (2011 to 2018)

2045 GOAL:100%

Carbon Free

Carbon Free53%

Fossil47%

2011

Page 6: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

6

55%

60%

70% 65%

75% 80%

90% 85%

95%2045 GOAL:

100%Carbon Free

Carbon Free53%

Fossil47%

2011California: the “Renewable-Only” Game Plan (2011 to 2018)

Page 7: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

7

55%

60%

70% 65%

75% 80%

90% 85%

95%2045 GOAL:

100%Carbon Free

Carbon Free53%

Fossil47%

2011California: the “Renewable-Only” Game Plan (2011 to 2018)

Page 8: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

8

55%

60%

70% 65%

75% 80%

90% 85%

95%2045 GOAL:

100%Carbon Free

Carbon Free53%

Fossil47%

2011California: the “Renewable-Only” Game Plan (2011 to 2018)

Page 9: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

9

55%

60%

70% 65%

75% 80%

90% 85%

95%2045 GOAL:

100%Carbon Free

Carbon Free53%

Fossil47%

2011California: the “Renewable-Only” Game Plan (2011 to 2018)

Page 10: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

10

55%

60%

70% 65%

75% 80%

90% 85%

95%2045 GOAL:

100%Carbon Free

Carbon Free53%

Fossil47%

2011 2018California: the “Renewable-Only” Game Plan (2011 to 2018)

Page 11: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Chart Title

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Chart Title

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Chart Title

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Chart Title

Current PathExisting Pledges

2°C

1.5°C

Global Emissions (Gigatonnes CO2/year)

Data: Climate Action Tracker December 2018 Update

Page 12: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

0

5

10

15

20

25

2020 2030 2050

IPCC Total World Nuclear GenerationMedian of 1.5° C Pathways

Every credible pathway to 1.5° C

requires more nuclear

Page 13: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

13

Page 14: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

14

Good News: Some Positive Signs for U.S. Nuclear Industry

U.S. still the global leader in innovation

Vogtle project going forward

State actions in Illinois, New York, New Jersey, and Ohio to save reactors

POTUS 90-day review

Page 15: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

15

Bad News -- Impact of Fukushima

104U.S. Reactors103

U.S. Reactors102

U.S. Reactors101

U.S. Reactors100

U.S. Reactors99

U.S. Reactors98

U.S. Reactors

2010

104U.S. Reactors

Page 16: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

16

Bad News -- Impact of Fukushima

104U.S. Reactors103

U.S. Reactors102

U.S. Reactors101

U.S. Reactors100

U.S. Reactors99

U.S. Reactors98

U.S. Reactors

20102019

97U.S. Reactors

Page 17: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

3,000

1,400

10,800

0 0

27,300

Russia (Tenex) U.K.,Netherlands,

Germany(URENCO)

France (Areva) China (CNNC) United States**(foreign-owned)

Argentina, Brazil,India, Pakistan,North Korea, &

Iran

Japan (JNFL) United States(domestic)

1985

1985 U.S. utility requirements7.5 million SWU/yr

Source: World Nuclear Association 2015Congressional Budget Office, 1985

The Loss of U.S. Nuclear Fuel LeadershipUranium Enrichment Capacity(Thousand SWU/year)

* Separative Work Units (SWU) are used to measure the amount of work done to enrich uranium. **The only remaining enrichment plant physically located in the U.S. is controlled by URENCO, a European state-owned corporation.

17

Page 18: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

26,578

14,400

7,0005,760

4,700

100 75 0

Russia (Tenex) U.K.,Netherlands,

Germany(URENCO)

France (Areva) China (CNNC) United States**(foreign-owned)

Argentina, Brazil,India, Pakistan,North Korea, &

Iran

Japan (JNFL) United States(domestic)

2015

U.S. utility requirements15 million SWU/yr

Source: World Nuclear Association 2015Congressional Budget Office, 1985

The Loss of U.S. Nuclear Fuel LeadershipUranium Enrichment Capacity(Thousand SWU/year)

* Separative Work Units (SWU) are used to measure the amount of work done to enrich uranium. **The only remaining enrichment plant physically located in the U.S. is controlled by URENCO, a European state-owned corporation.

18

Page 19: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

Four Decades of Decline

Sources: IAEA, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Congressional Budget Office, World Nuclear Association

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1975 1980 1985 1991 1996 2001 2005 2010 2015

U.S. Share of Global Enrichment Capacity1975-2015

U.S.

U.S. (includingforeign owned)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120% Domestic Uranium Production as a Percent of U.S. Utility Requirements

1981-2015

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 19

Page 20: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

China

Exporting Reactors: Courting a 100-Year Relationship

20

China S. Korea France U.S.ArgentinaBangladesh

BelarusBrazil

FinlandIndia

PakistanSlovakia

UAE

Customers Suppliers

China

Russia

Reactors Under Construction

Reactors Under Construction

Turkey

Page 21: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses
Page 22: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

In the next 5 to 10 years, U.S. government and industry will

begin deploying a new generation of advanced nuclear reactors:

SmallerFactory-builtLower capital costs

Carbon FreeTransportableStreamlined licensing

Proliferation-resistantInherently safe: shuts down

with no human intervention

22

Page 23: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

23

U.S. Army Fuel Convoy Afghanistan

Page 24: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

The Cost of Fueling U.S. Ground Forces

$25-$45/gallon500,000,000 gallons (6,000 convoys) per year in Iraq and Afghanistan (2007)

Human cost:1,500 Americans killed or wounded in fuel supply convoys from 2003 to 2007

24Sources: Army Environmental Policy Institute Technical Report, 2009Energy Security, America’s Best Defense, Deloitte, 2010

$2.14

$4

$3

$16

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

Delivered Cost of Fuel in Iraq/Afghanistan: 2007

Force Protection (Air)

Force Protection (Ground)

Transport/Logistics

Fuel Cost

Page 25: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

25

Page 26: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

DOD Project Pele:Game Changer for U.S. Industry and U.S. Military

26

• 1-10 MW, transportable, >3 years without refueling.

• Awards to multiple reactor design teams in 2019.

• Downselect in 2020/2021.

• Prototype operational by 2023.

• Follow-on production of reactors in mid-2020s?

• Requires HALEU TRISO fuel.

Page 27: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

Proven Model for Commercialization

27

May 2019: U.S. DoD solicits bids for HALEU TRISO-fueled mobile micro-reactor.

Prototype due in 3-4 years.

Prototype

June 1940: U.S. Army solicits bids for a “four-wheel-drive reconnaissance truck” to replace its horses and mules.

Prototype due in 49 days.

Page 28: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

Proven Model for Commercialization

28

Post 2023:Follow-on production for U.S. military/FEMA.

Micro-reactor manufacturing plants, HALEU & TRISO production facilities can expand for commercial needs.

Military Use

1940-1945660,000 Jeeps produced during WWII.

After the war, Jeep manufacturing plants in Ohio and Michigan can serve the commercial market.

Page 29: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

Proven Model for Commercialization

29

Mid-2020sTarget market for first civilian HALEU TRISO reactors: remote locations where diesel-powered electricity is extremely expensive.

Niche Market Commercialization

Late 1945Target market for the first civilian Jeeps: family farms, 66% of which lack a tractor.

A Jeep can do the work of three horses.

Page 30: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

Proven Model for Commercialization

30

Late 2020s/Early 2030s

Large potential global market for micro-reactors, SMRs, and advanced reactor fuel.

Mass Commercial Production

2018

1.6 million Jeeps sold worldwide.

Page 31: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

The HALEU Conundrum

Advanced Reactors:

Who will buy them from the U.S. if the U.S. lacks a guaranteed fuel supply?

31

High Assay Enrichment:

Who will invest in HALEU licensing/production without a guaranteed customer base?

The U.S. has solved this kind of problem

before…

Page 32: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

Lesson from Ike: Leverage U.S. National Security Investment to Promote Broader National Interest

32

Commercial nuclear industry could not have emerged without U.S. government investments in reactor designs and enrichment capacity.

Same model could work today: 1) Develop advanced reactors, HALEU enrichment, and

fabrication capacity for U.S. government needs.

2) Allow for commercial deployment to meet U.S. utility needs.

3) Supply global market – export U.S. safety and nonproliferation standards.

Page 33: A Nuclear Turning Pointlocal.ans.org/dc/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ANS.NEIMM_.10.3.2019.pdf.pdf · 2019/10/3  · Forward-Looking Statements Disclaimer: My commentary and responses

The Book is Always Better Than the Powerpoint

33