A Natural Experiment on Residential Change and Recidivism:

Lessons from Hurricane Katrina

David S. KirkAssistant Professor, University of Texas at

Austin

Prisoner Reentry Institute John Jay College of Criminal Justice

December 11, 2009

Overview

• Theoretical Rationale

• Data and Research Design

• Questions, Hypotheses, and Answers

• Discussion and Implications

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Theoretical Rationale

• Most prisoners “return home”

• Concentration of prisoner reentry

Why are these facts consequential?

• Peer Influence: The likelihood of criminal behavior increases with exposure to peers who engage in such behavior.

• Opportunity: Returning “home” to familiar settings may expose individuals to more criminal opportunities than they otherwise would if they had moved to a new geographic area. 3

Desistance

A change of residence may allow individuals to separate from their criminal peers and may reduce the number of criminal opportunities available to them, thus lowering the likelihood of crime and recidivism.

4

Questions

How has the geographic distribution of prisoners released from Louisiana prisons changed following Hurricane Katrina?

If there has been a geographic displacement of returning prisoners following the hurricane, has this hurricane-induced migration had any negative or even beneficial effects on the likelihood of recidivism?

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A Natural Experiment

The neighborhood residential destruction resulting from Hurricane Katrina induced some individuals to move who otherwise would not have moved had it not been for the hurricane.

We can compare the likelihood of recidivism among parolees who moved post-Katrina to similar parolees pre-Katrina who returned to their old place of residence.

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Data and Research Design

Data Sources

1) Louisiana Department of Public Safety and Corrections and the Division of Probation and Parole: parolee data including re-incarceration, criminal history, and demographics.

2) U.S. Census, Louisiana Dept. of Labor, HUD, and ESRI: time-series data of zip code and parish social and economic characteristics.

3) Criminal Justice System Data: time-series data on the likelihood of arrest given a crime, contacts with parolees, and judge caseloads.

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Accounting for Post-Katrina Change

• Katrina impacted more than the residential decisions of returning prisoners.

• Impact on Criminal Justice System

• Impact on Neighborhoods & Socio-Demographics

• Impact on Labor Markets

• In order to isolate the causal effect of residential change on recidivism, it is necessary to account for pre- versus post-Katrina differences in the above factors.

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Sample

• The sample consists of releases from the custody of the Louisiana Department of Public Safety and Corrections to parole supervision.

• Three release cohorts: 2001-2002, 2003-2004, and 2005-2006 (the post-Katrina cohort).

• Sex offenders are excluded from the sample.

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Questions, Hypotheses, and Answers

Question 1Of those individuals originally committed to prison from Orleans Parish and the four parishes adjacent to Orleans (Jefferson, Plaquemines, St. Bernard, and St. Tammany), where did they go upon release? Did the geographic distribution of release change post-Katrina?

Hypothesis 1: Because of hurricane-related destruction, significantly fewer parolees moved to New Orleans upon release from prison during the post-Katrina time period relative to the pre-Katrina period, and significantly fewer returned to the parish they inhabited prior to incarceration.

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Parish of ReleaseFor Prisoners Committed from 5-Parish Area

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Orleans Jefferson St. Tammany St. Bernard Plaquemines East BatonRouge

Other

% o

f A

ll R

elea

ses

to P

aris

h

2001-2002 2003-2004 Post-Katrina

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Comparison of Post-Incarceration Place of Residence

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2001-2002 2003-2004 Post-Katrina

Same Parish Different Parish15

Question 2

Even though prisoners released post-Katrina may be residing in different geographic areas (as identified in Question 1), are social and economic conditions still similar post- versus pre-Katrina?

Hypothesis 2: The types of geographic areas where parolees typically reside, in terms of poverty and economic conditions, are similar or even more disadvantaged for the post-Katrina period relative to the pre-Katrina period.

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Parolee Socio-Economic Context

P valuePre-Katrina Post-Katrina Difference

<0.001

<0.001

<0.001

<0.001$609

$31,506 $30,282

5.4% 10.1%

$603 $655

$723Fair Market

Rent

Avg Weekly Wage

Avg Household Income

Unemployment Rate

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Question 3

Given the geographic redistribution of returning prisoners post-Katrina identified in Question 1, has this hurricane-induced migration had any negative or even beneficial effects on the likelihood of recidivism?

Hypothesis 3: The likelihood of recidivism is lower when parolees reside in a geographic area different from where they resided prior to incarceration (i.e., the effect of migration).

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Effect of Migration – One Year

The predicted probability of re-incarceration is 0.15 lower for parolees who migrated.

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

Males Released to Same Parish

Males Released to Different Parish

Predicted Probability of Re-Incarceration, Within One Year

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First Releases and Repeat Offenders

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Repeat Offenders First Releases

Predicted Probability of Re-Incarceration, Within One Year

Males,Same Parish

Males, Different Parish

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Effect of Migration – Three Years

The probability of re-incarceration is 0.22 lower for parolees who migrated.

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0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

Males Released to Same Parish

Males Released to Different Parish

Predicted Probability of Re-Incarceration, Within Three Years

Discussion and Implications

Policy Implications

• Parolee residency restrictions may be counterproductive to public safety.

• In most states, prisoners released to parole supervision are legally required to return to their county of last residence.

• Findings from Louisiana suggest that allowing prisoners to move to different parishes/counties will reduce recidivism.

• Thus, it may be fruitful for states to reconsider the residency restrictions imposed on returning prisoners. 23