A Methodological Issue in Post Project Assessment

of Social Impact

Case study of involuntary resettlement caused by dam

construction in Japan

Naruhiko TAKESADA

Graduate School of Frontier Sciences

University of Tokyo, JAPAN

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Social Impact of Dam

• Involuntary Resettlement caused by Dam Construction

– Past: not much care

– Present: carefully planned resettlement

• Compensation (monetary and/or in kind)

• Rehabilitation

• “Resettlement as Opportunity”

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Principle agreed

• Standard of Living and/or Income

– improved, at least restored

t t+n

Asset/Income

Time

w/o R

After R1 After R2

After R3

After R1

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When & How to Assess

• When/How we know the principle realized

• Post Project Assessment (Post Evaluation)

– Donor-driven in developing countries

– 2-5 years after completion

• Monitoring effort waning

• “Development” is long process

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Different Picture

• Different result with different timing

t t+n

Asset/Income

Time

w/o R

After R1 After R2

After R3

After R1

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Case Study: Ikawa dam in Japan

• Ikawa Dam built in 1955

• 193 households displaced

• 21 households moved to prepared area (“Nishiyama-daira”)

• “New Village Building”

• Interview with resettlers in “Nishiyama-daira”

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Findings

• Resettlers’ livelihood after dam– Just after resettlement: hardship– After 10 years: unexpected boom in fore

stry– After 20 years: stagnation begins

• Now– Most resettlers satisfied– Village depopulated and declining

• Success or Failure?

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Conclusion and Implication• Uncertainty in “environment”

• Unforeseen social impact

• Rehabilitation not as expected

• Uncertainty & Unforeseen: no easy solution at planning

• One-shot plan is not feasible• Monitoring with commitment

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　　　　　　　　　　　 End of

Presentation

Thank you

very much!