Dr. Ron Lembke

A LITTLE BIT ABOUT “CLIMATE CHANGE”

A Scary "Recent" Movie

This is Not New

Frank Capra, 1958

Sun sends Infrared energy to the Earth

CO2 collects in Troposphere Ozone O3 layer – absorbs ultraviolet radiation from

sun

Van Allen Radiation BeltsMagnetic field of Earth creates radiation belts.These protect us from particles flying at Earth via solar wind (stream of ionized gases at 400 km/sec)

The Evidence

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020300

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Atmospheric CO2 ppm Mauna Loa Observatory

Data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationGraph: Ron Lembke, 1/12/2010

24% increase in 50 years

Jan, 2014- Polar Vortex

Jan 2014 Temperature Anomaly

1/29/14

1/27/14Prudhoe Bay, AK: -2Mason City, IA: -10

New Heat Map Color, 129°F

US Heat records 2012

Solar Activity?

http://www.aip.org/history/climate/summary.htm

The Theory

CO2 equivalents, aka CO2e How does the global warming potential (GWP) of a gas compare to

CO2 CO2, by definition has GWP = 1.0

IPCC AR4 p. 212 SF6 - 8,000 tons produced per year

6,000 in electrical industry, inert gas for casting magnesium Inert filling for insulated glazing windows

0.2% of GHG emissions

Gas Lifetime (years)

GWP 20yrs

GWP 100 yrs

GWP 500 yrs

Methane 12 72 25 7.6Nitrous Oxide 114 289 298 153HFC-23 270 12000 14,800 12,200HFC-134a 14 3,830 1,430 435Sulfur hexafluoride 3,200 16,30

022,800 32,600

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

United Nations Environmental Programme World Meteorological Organization

1988 mission: assess risks and impacts of climate change Comprehensive, open, objective, transparent,

scientific understanding of human-caused climate change

Assessment reports: 1990, 92, 95, 01, 07 Over 90% of change in temps caused by humans 2500 scientific expert reviewers, 800 authors

Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences

1,372 Climate Researchers’ publication and citation data 97-98% most actively publishing support

tenets of ACC outlined by IPCC scientific prominence of the researchers

unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers

How Much Agreement?

CO2 280 ppm for human history Last 250 years up to 384 ppm – where we are

now Milankovich Cycles (pp 117-8):

Earth’s orbit not circular, 100,000 year cycle Tilted axis shifts: 40,000 year cycle Plane of orbit relative to sun: 21,000 year

cycle Seems unlikely

The Earth’s Rotation

So What’s Expected to Happen?

We’re at 384 ppm450 ppm would be 2°C increase 550 ppm would lead to 3° C increase

Used to be target Pests not killed by freezes Ice sheets melting faster than predicted Oceans more acidic than thought China’s growing faster than expected

350? Really hard

Climate Models

Global Weirding Atlanta

Water shortage? Why more than used to? Montana:

Elk season had to be moved No trout in the streams Snowcaps in August gone

Higher temperatures increase evaporation Soils drying out

More water in the atmosphere, has to come down Means when it rains, it pours, more huge downpours

Changing wind patterns Search “cities hardest hit by climate change evaporation”

Nevada came up first: http://www.cier.umd.edu/climateadaptation/Climate%20change--NEVADA.pdf

Cedar River broke record by 6 feet

In the US, it’s a political issue, so there must be two sides?

Public Opinion

“If ninety-eight doctors say my son is ill and needs medication, and two say, “No, he doesn’t, he is fine,” I will go with the ninety-eight. It’s common sense – same with global warming. We go with the majority, the large majority.”

Arnold Schwartzeneger

Quoted in Thomas Friedman, (2009)“Hot Flat, and Crowded,” pp. 178-9.

One Politician

Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats. We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can't afford the risk of inaction.

We must transform the way we use energy, and of course not only because of climate change...

When I look around the world today, I see continued dependence on oil from vulnerable regions... and oil money going to leaders of countries hostile to us. Then there's accelerating development in China, India and other developing economies that are reliant on fossil fuels.

Rupert Murdoch

News Corp. owns Fox. “Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats”

and that “We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can’t afford the risk of inaction.” Rupert Murdoch, May 9, 2007

James Murdoch, heir apparent “Thanks to friendships with Al Gore and Bill Clinton, he

has developed deep green instincts,” London Telegraph

Wife Kathryn Hufschmid works for Clinton Climate Initiative

Rupert Murdoch

Yes, I think the globe has warmed a bit! Approximately 0.74 degree Celsius (+/- 0.18 degree) in the past 100 years.

Yes, I think that man might be responsible for some part of that warming, although I’m not 100 percent convinced of how much

The cost of generating power from wind has dropped by 60 percent since 1990, and power from the first solar cells in satellites is now 98.7 cheaper than when it was introduced.

These technologies will be adopted by the world when - and only when-- they make economic sense, not when we have to depend on countries like Russia and China to be virtuous. Sure, our government can help in the form of tax breaks and incentives, but capitalism is already well on its way to solving this problem itself.

Who said it?Yes, Glenn Beck

83% of Americans say world is warming 71% of those think it’s caused partly or

mostly by humans 75% said it was warming last year

Skeptics more certain they’re right From 35% to 53%

15% of voters say it is their primary concern

A Hoax Global warming, as a man-made and

highly threatening phenomenon, is at best an exaggeration, at worst an utter “hoax.” Over half of House Republicans Three-quarters of Senate Republicans

“Hoax” James Inhofe, ranking Republican on Senate

Environment and Public Works Committee Source: NYT “Fact-Free Science,” Judith Warner, 1/25/11

How will anything happen?