A Knowledge Based Approach to A Knowledge Based Approach to Community PlanningCommunity Planning

Dr. Patricia ByrnesDr. Patricia Byrnes

Patrick CurryPatrick Curry

Arwiphawee SrithongrungArwiphawee Srithongrung

What does Dilbert have to say?What does Dilbert have to say?

What is Planning?What is Planning?

Planning consists of defining the important Planning consists of defining the important objectives an organization needs to achieve objectives an organization needs to achieve and determining how it plans to achieve and determining how it plans to achieve them.them.

Purposes and Types of PlanningPurposes and Types of Planning

Strategic VisioningStrategic Visioning– Identify and describe widely held values and use them as a Identify and describe widely held values and use them as a

platform setting goals.platform setting goals. Strategic PlanningStrategic Planning

– To set the direction of the organization to improve its To set the direction of the organization to improve its prospects for long-term survival.prospects for long-term survival.

Operational PlanningOperational Planning– The tactical details of how an organization is to be run over The tactical details of how an organization is to be run over

a short period of timea short period of time Project PlanningProject Planning

– Detailed identification and sequencing of all tasks to Detailed identification and sequencing of all tasks to complete a project.complete a project.

Problems with PlanningProblems with Planning

No mechanism exists for recognizing the No mechanism exists for recognizing the difference between reality and predictionsdifference between reality and predictions

Goals are set arbitrarilyGoals are set arbitrarily Failure to focus on high-leverage goalsFailure to focus on high-leverage goals Planned activities are not designed to Planned activities are not designed to

accomplish goalsaccomplish goals There is no “Shared Vision” of the There is no “Shared Vision” of the

organizations future organizations future

Essential DefinitionsEssential Definitions

DataData - recorded observations of real - recorded observations of real world phenomenaworld phenomena

InformationInformation - level of knowledge needed - level of knowledge needed to solve a problem or show patternsto solve a problem or show patterns

IntelligenceIntelligence - essential factors selected - essential factors selected from information and datafrom information and data

KnowledgeKnowledge - total concept of data, - total concept of data, information, and intelligence with information, and intelligence with feedback loopfeedback loop

Process for Identifying Data NeedsProcess for Identifying Data Needs

Define the problemDefine the problem Decide on the geographic scope and detailDecide on the geographic scope and detail Pinpoint and define the specific variables (data) you Pinpoint and define the specific variables (data) you

will needwill need Establish the time period(s) for which you need the Establish the time period(s) for which you need the

datadata Decide on the presentation methods (tables, charts, Decide on the presentation methods (tables, charts,

maps, or a combination)maps, or a combination) Establish cost and quality parameters for the dataEstablish cost and quality parameters for the data

What do Economic Developers DoWhat do Economic Developers Do Create employment opportunitiesCreate employment opportunities Increase wealth and incomeIncrease wealth and income Increase the tax baseIncrease the tax base

How do they do itHow do they do it Retention and expansion of existing Retention and expansion of existing

businessesbusinesses Attract new businessAttract new business Support entrepreneurshipSupport entrepreneurship Other…Other…

Population losses experienced in recent Population losses experienced in recent decades are likely to continue.decades are likely to continue.

Population reached a peak in 1920 (41,403) Population reached a peak in 1920 (41,403) since 1920 the county experienced losses since 1920 the county experienced losses each Census except 1970 to 1980each Census except 1970 to 1980

The current population is 28,900 excluding The current population is 28,900 excluding the prisonthe prison

Projections show slight declines of less than Projections show slight declines of less than 1% over the next five years1% over the next five years

The rate of migration is very low, not many The rate of migration is very low, not many new faces in town!new faces in town!

Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

With Prison Population Without Prison Population

4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Brain Drain

Baby Boomers –Will they stay or go?

The 65+ population is large

but declining

School age children will slowly decline

Male Female

Your neighbor, Macoupin County, is now a Your neighbor, Macoupin County, is now a metro county.metro county.

Commuting is a two way street. The Commuting is a two way street. The number of workers commuting into number of workers commuting into Montgomery county increased at the same Montgomery county increased at the same time the number of persons commuting time the number of persons commuting outside the county increased.outside the county increased.

An increasing number of workers are An increasing number of workers are crossing county boundaries to find crossing county boundaries to find employment.employment.

Montgomery County's 1980-2000 Resident Workers' Profile

81%

19%

74%

26%

70%

31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

% Workers Working in County of Residence % Workers Working Out of County of Residence

% T

ota

l Rep

ort

ed W

ork

ers

19801990

2000

1980

1990

2000

1980 1990 2000

Number of Reported Workers

11,446 12,283 12,776

Number of People Working in County of Residence

9,262 9,109 8,843

% Workers Working in County of Residence

(80.92%) (74.16%) (69.22%)

Number of People Working Outside County of Residence

2,184 3,174 3,933

% Workers Working Out of County of Residence

(19.08%) (25.84%) (30.78%)

Montgomery County Resident Worker Profile

More residents work now than ever before More residents work now than ever before primarily because of the age structure of the primarily because of the age structure of the population and an increase in the proportion population and an increase in the proportion of females working.of females working.

BUT the County still has a relatively low BUT the County still has a relatively low labor force participation rate when labor force participation rate when compared with the rest of Illinois.compared with the rest of Illinois.

The labor force is growing even though the The labor force is growing even though the county population is shrinking.county population is shrinking.

Population By Employment Trends (2000 Census-2008 Projection)

53% 53%

57% 57%59% 58%

63% 63%61% 61%

3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4%

43% 44%

40% 40%38% 38%

33% 34% 35% 35%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000 2008 2000 2008 2000 2008 2000 2008 2000 2008

MontgomeryCounty

Surrounding Area Rural Illinois Sangamon-Madison

Illinois

Civilian Employed Civilian Unemployed Not In Labor Force

Source: US Census Bureau, Population by

Employment Trends

The number of full and part-time jobs has The number of full and part-time jobs has increased in recent years but long term has increased in recent years but long term has tracked national cycles.tracked national cycles.

Montgomery County's 1980-2000 Full-Time and Part-Time Employment Changes

-0.70%

12.50%

4.30%

13.50%13.30%

15.40%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

1980-1990 1990-2000

Decade

% C

han

ges

Montgomery Rural IL IL

Illinois

Rural Illinois

Montgomery

The labor force has many characteristics The labor force has many characteristics indicating the area may not be attractive to the indicating the area may not be attractive to the employers of the futureemployers of the future Educational attainment level are Educational attainment level are

improving but are still below averages for improving but are still below averages for rural Illinois and the State.rural Illinois and the State.

In particular the proportion of college In particular the proportion of college educated persons is low, less than one half educated persons is low, less than one half the Illinois average.the Illinois average.

The prison population is included!The prison population is included! Occupation?????Occupation?????

Educational AttainmentEducational Attainment

MontgomerySurrounding

Rural Counties SangamonRural

Illinois Illinois

% HS or Higher 76.9% 79.2% 88.0% 80.5% 81.4%

Some college, no degree 20.1% 20.8% 21.8% 21.9% 21.6%

Associate degree 4.7% 5.6% 6.7% 6.9% 6.1%

Bachelor's degree 7.5% 7.7% 18.2% 9.5% 16.5%

Graduate or professional degree

3.5% 3.7% 10.3% 4.9% 9.5%

SOC CODE

OCCUPATIONAL TITLE

NUMBER % TOTAL MONTGO- MERY

MACOUPI N SANGAMON I LLI NOI S

43-0000Office and administrative support occupations 1,908 14.7% 18,977 28,572 26,626 26,478

47-0000

Construction, extraction, and maintenance occupations:

1,520 11.7% 39,764 38,723 43,389 46,593

51-0000 Production occupations 1,312 10.1% 23,853 24,242 24,409 24,631

41-0000 Sales and related occupations 1,299 10.0% 14,551 18,830 19,016 20,818

53-0000Transportation and material moving occupations: 1,033 8.0% 26,435 26,564 23,260 25,224

11-0000

Management occupations, except farmers and farm managers

814 6.3% 52,270 44,830 59,678 64,524

35-0000

Food preparation and serving related occupations

733 5.7% 14,022 14,355 15,316 14,527

25-0000 Education, training, and library occupations 665 5.1% 24,159 34,633 31,062 36,946

Annually Median Wages and Total Employment for Employing Occupations in Montgomery County

ANNUALLY MEDIAN WAGEEMPLOYMENTS (TOTAL = 12,951)

Montgomery County's Annual Median Wage by Major Occupations

$14,022

$14,551

$14,788

$15,169

$17,063

$18,977

$19,581

$23,853

$24,159

$26,435

$27,847

$29,800

$34,062

$39,764

$41,755

$45,512

$46,066

$52,270

$52,718

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000

Food Preparation and Serving-Related Occupations

Sales and Related Occupations

Bui lding and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance

Occupations

Ar ts, Design, Enter tainment, Spor ts, and Media

Occupations

Heal thcare Suppor t Occupations

Offi ce and Administrative Suppor t Occupations

Personal Care and Service Occupations

Production Occupations

Education, Training, and Library Occupations

Transpor tation and Mater ial Moving Occupations

Communi ty and Social Services Occupations

Heal thcare Practi tioners and Technical Occupations

Instal lation, Maintenance, and Repai r Occupations

Construction and Extraction Occupations

Business and Financial Operations Occupations

Legal Occupations

Computer and Mathematical Occupations

Management Occupations

Li f e, Physical , and Social Science Occupations

Source: I l l inois Depar tment of Employment Secur i ty, Economic Inf ormation and Analysis

Montgomery County’s economy reflects national Montgomery County’s economy reflects national trends with fewer workers producing more outputtrends with fewer workers producing more output

Basic industries, those exporting products and Basic industries, those exporting products and importing income, are agriculture, mining, and importing income, are agriculture, mining, and communication and public utilities.communication and public utilities.

Natural resource industries, including mining and Natural resource industries, including mining and agriculture, experienced dramatic declines in agriculture, experienced dramatic declines in employment in the 1990’semployment in the 1990’s

The service sector of the economy emerged as the The service sector of the economy emerged as the dominant sector in the 1990’sdominant sector in the 1990’s

The structure of the economy has changed The structure of the economy has changed dramatically over the last 20 years.dramatically over the last 20 years.

Montgomery Employment Trends by Sectors

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Year

% T

ota

l Em

plo

ymen

t

Mining 5% 1% 2%

Manufacturing 16% 19% 14%

Transportation and public utilities 6% 7% 7%

Retail trade 16% 17% 17%

Finance, insurance, and realestate

6% 5% 7%

Services 18% 24% 28%

Government and governmententerprises

10% 13% 13%

1980 1990 2000

Source: Bureau of economic Analysis, CA 05 2000 Personal Income and SIC

MontgomeryCounty

Illinois

These charts illustratethe extraordinarydifferences in the economic base of Montgomery County and Illinois.

Note the dominance of natural resource industries in Montgomery compared to finance and services in Illinois.

Montgomery Employment Trends by Sectors

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Year

% T

ota

l Em

plo

ymen

t

Mining 5% 1% 2%

Manufacturing 16% 19% 14%

Transportation and publicutilities

6% 7% 7%

Retail trade 16% 17% 17%

Finance, insurance, andreal estate

6% 5% 7%

Services 18% 24% 28%

Government andgovernment enterprises

10% 13% 13%

1980 1990 2000

Source: Bureau of economic Analysis, CA 05 2000 Personal Income and SIC

47% of housing units were constructed 47% of housing units were constructed prior to 1950 compared to 40% for Rural prior to 1950 compared to 40% for Rural Illinois and 32% for the State Illinois and 32% for the State

Lowest median value for owner occupied Lowest median value for owner occupied housing ($54,767) when compared with housing ($54,767) when compared with neighboring counties ($64,366), Rural neighboring counties ($64,366), Rural Illinois ($70,504), and the State ($130,829)Illinois ($70,504), and the State ($130,829)

The housing stock is old and housing values The housing stock is old and housing values are low. are low.

All measures of personal income are below those All measures of personal income are below those for neighboring counties, rural Illinois, and for neighboring counties, rural Illinois, and Illinois. Poverty rates are above the State average.Illinois. Poverty rates are above the State average.

Diminished buying power and disposable income Diminished buying power and disposable income will restrict growth in retail sales.will restrict growth in retail sales.

The willingness to invest in local institutions like The willingness to invest in local institutions like schools, parks, health care, and infrastructure may schools, parks, health care, and infrastructure may also be limited.also be limited.

Local financial resources for investment in Local financial resources for investment in entrepreneurial endeavors may also be limited.entrepreneurial endeavors may also be limited.

The low income profile will influence many The low income profile will influence many facets of the county economy and facets of the county economy and institutional infrastructure.institutional infrastructure.

1990 MEDIAN HH. INCOME

2000MEDIAN HH. INCOME

GROWTH RATE

Montgomery County $23,909 $33,433 39.83%Macoupin County $24,031 $36,412 51.52%Surrounding Region $24,208 $36,116 49.19%Rural IL $24,710 $36,621 48.20%Sangamon-Madison $30,172 $42,427 40.62%Illinois $30,431 $43,190 41.93%

1990-2000 MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME

Montgomery County’s future is as dependent on what Montgomery County’s future is as dependent on what happens in the surrounding counties as it is on what happens in the surrounding counties as it is on what happens at home.happens at home.

In the next five years the county is likely to continue to In the next five years the county is likely to continue to experience population decline and erosion of buying experience population decline and erosion of buying power because of low incomes.power because of low incomes.

Strategy development should focus on population growth Strategy development should focus on population growth and increasing per capita incomes.and increasing per capita incomes.

Although many jobs have been created in the County they Although many jobs have been created in the County they are primarily in the service sector where wages are low are primarily in the service sector where wages are low and benefits limited.and benefits limited.

Reversing long term structural changes in the local Reversing long term structural changes in the local economy and work force will take time.economy and work force will take time.

What does it all mean?What does it all mean?