A growing need for links betweenSociety, Policy and Research on

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Martin ManningClimate Change Research Institute, September 2010

An issue of controversy ?An issue of controversy ?

“S i S d“Science Scorned Nature editorial, 9 Sep 2010“There is a growing anti-science streak on the AmericanThere is a growing anti-science streak on the American right that could have tangible societal and political impacts on many fronts.y

“Denialism over global warming has become a scientific élèb ithi th t Li b h fcause célèbre within the movement. Limbaugh, for

instance, who has told his listeners that “science has become a home for displaced socialists and communists”become a home for displaced socialists and communists , has called climate-change science “the biggest scam in the history of the world”.y

More in September 2009

“Do I believe there is global warming? No, I believe it's all a load of bullshit. But it's amazing the wayit s all a load of bullshit. But it s amazing the way the whole fucking eco-warriors and the media have changed. Mi h l O’L R i UKMichael O’Leary, Ryanair, UK

“In the world of green and liberal politics, where they practice extreme environmentalism, nothing bears examination: two lies make a truthexamination: two lies make a truth. “There never was a shred of evidence that CFCs were in the ozone layer or causing change.“Global warming and climate change are the biggestGlobal warming and climate change are the biggest scam of all. Tim Ball, former professor of Geography, Canada

Reuters. 14 September 2010p

A new wind blowing through Senate on climate change?Richard Cowan

Nearly all the Senate Republican candidates for the November election are now disputing there being any scientific consensus on climate change.

Cites Eileen Claussen, president of the Pew Center onCites Eileen Claussen, president of the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, saying (about US policy):“I think most of the people who work on energy and li t i ld th t th h f iclimate issues would say that the chances of passing a

major climate bill in the next couple of years are very, very small.”y

Did three investigations of the implications of stolen emails from the University of East Angliastolen emails from the University of East Anglia carry any weight – or is it a continuing excuse to ignore the science?ignore the science?

Is climate change causing an g ginternational split?

Lord Nicholas Stern, 12 Sep 2010.

“If the USA wont move then others should just get on with it, and that may affect the market later”may affect the market later”.

Meanwhile some are quick at exploitinggthe changing climate

The 114,564-tonne tanker Baltica, escorted by the

ld' t t f lworld's two most powerful nuclear ice breakers, sailed from Russia's northernmostfrom Russia s northernmost port of Murmansk on August 14, 2010, and delivered gas

d t t Ni bcondensate to Ningbo, China, 11 days later – less than half the time it would have taken through the Suez canal.

The Establishment vs Change? (again)In 1610, Galileo Galilei published his discoveries about the Sun and planets in a book, “The Sidereal Messenger”.Conservatives began relying on biblical and theologicalConservatives began relying on biblical and theological arguments that the Earth did NOT go around the Sun.Complaints increased steadily and in 1616 a committee reported that Galileo’s views were philosophically and scientifically untenable, and theologically heretical.Pope Urban VIII initially supported Galileo but by 1632 hePope Urban VIII initially supported Galileo but by 1632 he was in political trouble. Others stopped sales of Galileo’s book and interrogated him under a threat of torture.He was sentenced for “vehement suspicion of heresy” and then finally allowed to live under house arrest for the rest of his life to 1642. Despite that, he had another major work published in Holland which set up a framework for Isaac Newton.

“Galileo on the World Systems”, Maurice Finnocchiaro, 1997

The Establishment vs Change? (again)In 1610, Galileo Galilei published his discoveries about the Sun and planets in a book, “The Sidereal Messenger”.Conservatives began relying on biblical and theologicalConservatives began relying on biblical and theological arguments that the Earth did NOT go around the Sun.Complaints increased steadily and in 1616 a committee reported that Galileo’s views were philosophically and scientifically untenable, and theologically heretical.Pope Urban VIII initially supported Galileo but by 1632 hePope Urban VIII initially supported Galileo but by 1632 he was in political trouble. Others stopped sales of Galileo’s book and interrogated him under a threat of torture.

And in August 2010, the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition said it had lodged papers with

He was sentenced for “vehement suspicion of heresy” and then finally allowed to live under house arrest for the rest of his life to 1642.

the High Court asking the court to invalidate NIWA's official temperature records.

Despite that, he had another major work published in Holland which set up a framework for Isaac Newton.

“Galileo on the World Systems”, Maurice Finnocchiaro, 1997

This time there is a growing under current in the private sectorunder-current in the private sector

Deutsche Bank spurns US for climate investment(Reuters 11 Aug 2010)

"They're asleep at the wheel on climate change, asleep at the wheel on job growth asleep at the wheel on this industrial

(Reuters, 11 Aug 2010)

wheel on job growth, asleep at the wheel on this industrial revolution taking place in the energy industry.“You just throw your hands up and say ... we're going to take our money elsewhere.“"We've said that we're going to put our capital in places where we can get our arms around regulatory risk and that requiredwe can get our arms around regulatory risk, and that required government policies that provide transparency, longevity and certainty.”K i P k h d f D t h A t t di i iKevin Parker, head of Deutsche Asset management division, talking of Washington's inability to seal a climate-change program and other alternative energy incentives into place. Parker manages $700 billion in funds with about $7 billion now going into climate change products.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67A3JK20100811

Deutsche Bank has analysed the climate science

Their report released this month addresses 12 of the major claims made by skeptics. It completely rejects most of them and points outrejects most of them and points out that the others are no reason for doubting that human activities aredoubting that human activities are warming the Earth now.

It is brief and readable but is basedIt is brief and readable but is based on an extensive review of recent scientific literature and takes 16 pages just to list the references that are used.

www.dbcca.com/dbcca/EN/_media/DBCCAColumbiaSkepticPaper090710.pdf

Munich Re Topics Geo 2009

“COPENHAGEN CLIMATE SUMMITTh 15th C f f th P tiThe 15th Conference of the Parties was meant to pave the way for the successor to the Kyoto Protocol but the results were disappointing.

“DATA, FACTS, BACKGROUNDThe year was marked by the effects of El Niño – with very few hurricanes but floods and droughts in many parts of thefloods and droughts in many parts of the world.

6 S 2010 M i h R t th t6-Sep-2010: Munich Re reports that the loss due to weather related catastrophes over the last 30 years has averaged $70 billion per year.

Insurance industry reporting increase in extreme events

Wildfire, drought

Storms, hail, severe weather

Floods, storms, landslide

E th k St Fl d/ l d lid H t / d ht/ ildfi

Earthquakes, volcanoes

Storms, hail, severe weather

o Earthquakes, o Storms, o Flood/ landslide, o Heatwave/ drought/ wildfire

2009

Munich Re Topics Geo 2009

“Climate change means food production will increasingly fail to

Lloyds Insuranceproduction will increasingly fail to meet demand and global food markets could change

y

gsubstantially.

“A 2°C temperature rise would cause serious disruption to almost all human systems, but most notably agricultural andmost notably agricultural and political ones.

“Business has a vital role to playBusiness has a vital role to play in the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change.

Governments will become increasingly dependent on the creativity and skills of the private sector in tackling the security challenges that climate changeof the private sector in tackling the security challenges that climate change will bring. Dr Richard Ward, Chief Executive Officer, Lloyds

“The data is clear: weather-related disasters have become significantly

6 September 2010g y

more frequent and more extreme in recent decades and this trend will not cease anywhere in the mid-term future.

“The global insurance industry demands public-private action cease anywhere in the mid term future.

“Ambitious action on reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains

demands public private action on climate change adaptation in developing countries.

greenhouse gas emissions remains critical in order to keep climate change within boundaries not dangerous for global human developmentglobal human development.

http://www.unepfi.org/fileadmin/documents/insurance_climatechange_statement.pdf

“Assessments conducted by the intelligence community indicate thatAssessments conducted by the intelligence community indicate that climate change could have significant geopolitical impacts around the world, contributing to poverty, environmental degradation, and the f rther eakening of fragile go ernments Climate change illfurther weakening of fragile governments. Climate change will contribute to food and water scarcity, will increase the spread of disease, and may spur or exacerbate mass migration.

“While climate change alone does not cause conflict, it may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the worldcivilian institutions and militaries around the world.

Turning to what is happening on the planet

From Julienne Stroeve, NSIDC, presentation to International Conference on Land Surface Radiation and Energy budgets.

And science is still having to come up with f t ki ll th hways of tracking all the changes

The Arctic region is gwarming at more than twice the global average rate.

Tracking Arctic ice volume is starting to complement previous tracking of its surface area.

More of the ice is now only one year old and thinner thanold and thinner than it used to be.

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/ArcticSeaiceVolume/IceVolume.php

Many changes have Global consequences …Greenland ice sheet loss causes larger sea l l i h h id f h ldlevel rise on the other side of the world

Th t f i l G l d d t fThe amount of ice loss on Greenland and parts of Antarctica has accelerated significantly in the lasttwo decades. Surface melt on Greenland ice sheet

“ ” fJiang et al, 2010, Nature Geoscience on accelerating rate of ice loss in Greenland

descending into “moulin”, a vertical shaft carrying the water to base of ice sheet. Photo credit: Roger Braithwaite

More scientists are now saying we are starting to h th h ld f j h

Suzanne Goldenberg, US environmental correspondent, Th G di A t 10 2010

reach thresholds for major change

The Guardian, August 10, 2010

The entire ice mass of Greenland will disappear from the world map if temperatures rise by as little as 2°C, with severe consequences for p y , qthe rest of the world, a panel of scientists told Congress today.Greenland shed its largest chunk of ice in nearly half a century last week and faces an even grimmer future according to Richard Alleyweek, and faces an even grimmer future, according to Richard Alley, a geosciences professor at Pennsylvania State University"What is going on in the Arctic now is the biggest and fastest thing that nature has ever done," he said. Alley was addressing a briefing held by the House of Representatives committee on energy independence and global warming.independence and global warming.The briefing also noted that the last six months had set new temperature records.

In the last three years, scientific estimates in the peer reviewed literature for the magnitude of Sea Level rise this century haveliterature for the magnitude of Sea Level rise this century have more than doubled.Is this alarmism? or does it mean that things are changing soIs this alarmism? or does it mean that things are changing so fast that science has trouble keeping up?

What does 1 meter sea-level rise look like?It’s effects will be broader than shown belowIt s effects will be broader than shown below.

Australia, Netherlands d C lif i hand California now have

plans in a policy context for dealing with morefor dealing with more than 1 meter sea level rise by 2100.y

Some of us think that the l t b i konly way to be risk

averse is to be prepared for dealing with 1 5for dealing with 1.5 meters, plus continuing increases after 2100.

[Wellington City Council, 2009]

Heavy snow in Europe over January-February 2010 was y yunusual. It was colder in some places but warmer over most of the Northern Hemisphere HeavierNorthern Hemisphere. Heavier snow is related to more water vapour in the atmosphere now.p p

Colder or Warmer Weather extremes?The dominant science view is that August 2010 extreme flooding in China and Pakistan could have happened without global warming ...

… but this is expected to become more frequent - and again is due to more water vapour in a warmermore water vapour in a warmer atmosphere.

Some climate scientists are now taking stronger lines on attributionstronger lines on attribution …

“Global warming plays a role by: g p y y1) elevating the SSTs in the Indian Ocean and Indonesian region, where it contributes to the

i i t d i th t thexcessive moisture and rains that gave the flooding over Pakistan, India and China; and 2) In Russia by adding to the heat and drying2) In Russia by adding to the heat and drying, making the drought more intense, longer lasting, and with stronger and record breaking g, g gheat waves. “These events would not have happened

ith t l b l iwithout global warming.

Kevin Trenberth, on David Appell Quark Soup, Sep 2010pp p p

Chicago – 1995 severe heat waveheat wave

Hospital admissions during the heat wave peaked a few days after the heat index

Mortality was significantly lower

peaked a few days after the heat index maximum.

y g yin neighbourhoods that had

close social links, than in ones where neighbours did not talk.

The August 2003 Heat Wave in Europe was much worse

Wide area temperature

was much worse

Wide area temperature anomaly of about 3oC

Was more than 7oCWas more than 7 C warmer than usual in some places

About 30,000 premature deaths

Unprecedented drop in crop yields

This is now twice as likely as it was 50 years ago d t l b l idue to global warming

The August 2003 Heat Wave in Europe was much worse

Wide area temperature

was much worse

Wide area temperature anomaly of about 3oC

Was more than 7oCWas more than 7 C warmer than usual in some places

About 30,000 premature deaths

Unprecedented drop in crop yields

Death tollFrance 14,082Germany 7,000

This is now twice as likely as it was 50 years ago d t l b l i

Spain 4,200Italy 4,000UK 2,045N th l d 1 400due to global warming Netherlands 1,400Portugal 1,300

Global average temperature is no longer the issueis no longer the issue

0.6

0 2

0.4

us

0 2

0.0

0.2

es C

elsi

u

-0.4

-0.2

Deg

ree

1850 1900 1950 2000

-0.6

Annual average temperatures from the University of East Anglia, UK, (red

1850 1900 1950 2000Year

circles) and NASA Goddard Space Centre (green circles). The blue line shows a 15-year average smoothing of the annual values.

The growing need for Adaptation

Adaptive Capacity vs Structural Inertiap p y

Community and Regional Resilience InitiativeOak Ridge National Laboratory

I N O l th j l i fIn New Orleans, the major planning for hurricanes, after Hurricane Betsy occurred in 1965, was never completed. , pHurricane Katrina in 2005 was more extreme, and also revealed structural i ti i l i

o The greatest overall disaster in U.S. history at a

inertia in planning.

time of unprecedented U.S. wealth and powero Creating community resilience takes time and

longer than anticipatedlonger than anticipatedo Surprises should be expected & anticipation

was insufficiento Response took longer than any similar disaster

in US historyo Despite 290 years of effort, overall vulnerabilityo Despite 290 years of effort, overall vulnerability

to hurricanes has grown

Lloyds Insurance againy g

If no action is taken, losses from t l fl di ld d bl bcoastal flooding could double by

2030. Therefore adaptation is vital.

With effective adaptation strategy, future losses can be reduced to below present day valuesbelow present day values.

The insurance industry can d t ti bencourage adaptation by

policyholders through incentivisation2010 incentivisation.

The world cannot insure its way out of climate change

2010

out of climate change

Adapting Australia to Climate Change. Jean Palutikof, Global Environmental Change, 2010

“We can visualise an Australia where, in 30 years, the population is to all intents entirely located in large urbanpopulation is to all intents entirely located in large urban developments within 15 km of the coast. These will rely on cleared firebreaks to protect against bushfire, coastal d f t t t i t l l i t id ddefences to protect against sea-level rise, water grids and desalination plant to provide freshwater.

“Th l f ll t l f A t li ’ i“There are lessons for all to learn from Australia’s experience and response—the importance of sustainable management of resources, the risk of becoming complacent, the , g p ,undermining of defining cultural values.

Adaptation has global as well as local contextsA new study* suggests that effective globalization of water resources through dependence on international trade forresources through dependence on international trade for agriculture leaves fewer options for coping with exceptional droughts and crop failure – so reduces global resilience.

**D’Odorico et al, GRL, July 2010

After the serious Russian drought this year, Vladimir Putin banned exports of grainbanned exports of grain.

Reports on Mozambique food riots this year say they are related to global prices rises linked to the Russian action.g p

Raj Patel, The Observer, 5 Sep 2010

Mozambique used to export crops to South Africa. That was set back by terrorism and then severely impacted by extreme floods in 2000. Much of the small farming communities moved permanently to slums around Maputo.

From my visit to friends in Maputo, 2002

Economics of Climate Adaptation*Their recent report stresses a growing need for climate resilient development. Recommends:

o A common risk framework

o Analysing approaches to adaptation

o Cover the local nature of risko Cover the local nature of risk

o An inclusive process – but with prioritizationprioritization

o View development through a new lens

* Is a new working group run by: ClimateWorksFoundation; Global Environment Facility; European Commission; McKinsey & Company;

http://europeandcis.undp.org/poverty/show/6E6D5031-F203-1EE9-B8CCB4597DC73EE2

European Commission; McKinsey & Company; The Rockefeller Foundation; Standard Chartered Bank; and SwissRe

But everything is fine in New Zealandy g

Sh t t l i ti h d t t iShort term planning perspectives here compared to some countries.

E.g. planning to move SH1 onto land 2 meters above sea level when China is planning to shift major highways the other waywhen China is planning to shift major highways the other way.

?? Proposed new housing development in SW corner of Petone on low lying land with growing risk of tidal waves storm surges etclow lying land with growing risk of tidal waves, storm surges etc.

Budget cuts in Ministry for the Environment meaning they have had to pull back from adaptation to climate changehad to pull back from adaptation to climate change.

A Korean Ministry for Environment group met with some of us here in August and showed they had rapidly started to do more onhere in August and showed they had rapidly started to do more on integrated frameworks for developing adaptive capacity than NZ is.

Humanity is now at a Y-Junction.But is also faced with a new dimension forBut is also faced with a new dimension for

Global Risks

“There is no doubt that we should aim to limit changes in the global mean surface temperature to 2oC above pre-industrial But given thispre-industrial. But given this is an ambitious target, and we don't know in detail how to limit greenhouse gas emissions to realise a 2oC target we should betarget, we should be prepared to adapt to 4oC.Dr Robert Watson, UK Dept Environment, Food & Rural AffairsMalte Meinshausen et al, Nature, 2009

Thank You