a global perspective on large scale land and water deals governance implications
TRANSCRIPT
A global perspective on large-scale land
and water deals: governance implications
Ward AnseeuwGovInn
(Cirad / University of Pretoria)
Workshop on Responding to the Global Food Security Challengethrough Coordinated Land and Water Governance
A joint GWP-ILC-IWMI initiative15-16 June, Pretoria, South Africa
Outline
1) Large-scale land based investments
globally and in Africa
- State and features
- Links to water
2) Governance implications
Large-scale land based
investments,
globally and in Africa
– State and features
LSLBI globallytable 1: projects according to negotiation status
Oral agreement 66 3.7 1.1
Contract signed 804 50.8 30.6
concluded deals 870 54.5 31.8
Expression of interest 42 5.5 n.a.
Under negotiation 144 9.1 n.a.
Intended deals 186 14.6 n.a.
Negotiations failed 50 5.3 n.a.
Contract cancelled 24 1.6 1.5
Failed deals 74 6.9 1.5
# deals ha intended ha under contract
LSLBI globallytable 1: projects according to negotiation status
Oral agreement 66 3.7 1.1
Contract signed 804 50.8 30.6
concluded deals 870 54.5 31.8
Expression of interest 42 5.5 n.a.
Under negotiation 144 9.1 n.a.
Intended deals 186 14.6 n.a.
Negotiations failed 50 5.3 n.a.
Contract cancelled 24 1.6 1.5
Failed deals 74 6.9 1.5
# deals ha intended ha under contract
LSLBI globallytable 1: projects according to negotiation status
Oral agreement 66 3.7 1.1
Contract signed 804 50.8 30.6
concluded deals 870 54.5 31.8
Expression of interest 42 5.5 n.a.
Under negotiation 144 9.1 n.a.
Intended deals 186 14.6 n.a.
Negotiations failed 50 5.3 n.a.
Contract cancelled 24 1.6 1.5
Failed deals 74 6.9 1.5
# deals ha intended ha under contract
African countries are among the most focused on in the world
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
5 000 000
10 000 000
15 000 000
20 000 000
25 000 000
30 000 000
35 000 000
40 000 000
Africa Asia Latin Oceania Europe
size (ha)
# deals
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
-
5 000 000
10 000 000
15 000 000
20 000 000
25 000 000
Africa Asia Oceania Latin Europe
Conluded
All
• Important concentration – top 20 countries, 74%
deals, 80% size
• Top 20 – 9 African countries
African countries are among the most focused on
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
# cases
Size (ha)
Concentration of LSLBI
The rush for land is triggered by a wide range of drivers, food becoming a main
driver
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
Concluded deals (In 1000 ha) Concluded deals (# of deals)
GLOBAL
The rush for land is triggered by a wide range of drivers, food becoming a main
driver
Jatropha hype for
pure and mixed
biofuel deals - Data
as of 1 November,
2013
GLOBAL
Western countries are still the main investors in Africa, Emerging and Middle
Eastern countries are upcoming
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
Size
# Cases
North West Central East Southern
Saudi Arabia UK USA Egypt South Korea
UAE India Malaysia UAE South Africa
South Africa Italy Canada USA UK
Japan Liberia Singapore Jordan Brazil
- France Belgium Saudi Arabia India
AFRICA
Origin of investors/markets
Intra-regional
Extra-regional
But only marginal impelmentation (ha)
1% 9%
5%2%
8%
4%
71%
Concluded, abandoned
Concluded, implemenation
status unknown
Concluded, not yet
productive
Concluded, operational not
producing yet
Concluded, producing
Failed
Intended
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
Central East North South West
Unknown
Startup phase (no production)
Project not started
Project abandoned
In operation (production)
8%
Africa
Slowing down overall, but evidence of long-term trend of growing commercial
interest in land
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
North
West
Central
East
Southern
Total Africa
Water …• Out of the about +- 1000 deals, 230 has information re water (25% total / 30%
concluded)
- Information bias , but those projects that are implemented have access to water
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
In operation
(production)
Project
abandoned
Project not
started
Startup phase
(no
production)
16.40625
6.25
77.34375
Groundwater
Both
Surface water
New trends/strategies- Normalisation
- Increased vertical integration- Corporisation agriculture
- enclave economies / closed value-chains
- Increased focus on stable situations, with well-
developed property rights (land and water)- Other countries
- Water access/road access
- Other investment strategies (equity)- Less visible but at least as important in terms of volume
and impact on agrarian structures in host countries
Governance Implications
A complex and inter-dependent
environment …
Drivers
LT Demographic
Change in diet and
energy use
MTFood production
Biofuels
Industrial production
Forest/fibre production
Ecosystemic
Services/Tourism
Speculation
Triggers
Food price crisis
Facilitators
-Land/water
governance
-Democratic
governance
-Economic
governance and
market regulations
-Crisis of family
farming (the
perception thereof)
A GOVERNANCE
PROBLEM
(not an investor
one only)
Large-scale land acquisitions as aggravator
DriversFood production
Biofuels
Industrial production
Forest/fibre production
Ecosystemic
Services/Tourism
Speculation
Triggers
Food price crisis
Facilitators-Crisis of the
perception of family
farming
-Land/water
governance
-Economic
governance and
market regulations
-Democratic
governance
LSLA as
aggravators
Towards more equitable LSLBI (in Africa)? Initiatives and lessons learned…
1. Policies and governance1. Investment policies
2. Land/water policies
2. Transparency1. Liberia decided to publish the land allocation contracts
3. Monitoring instruments1. Ex: Cameroun Land Observatory
4. Challenging investment protection regimes, with
some countries terminating BITs (Cotula, 2013).
5. Private sector instruments1. Inclusive Business Models (Contract farming, outgrower schemes) /
Community Partnership Programmes
2. Private sector tresholds (banks)
6. Better international and continental guidance1. VGs, RAI, AU Declaration on Land, Framework and Guidelines for Land
Policy in Africa (F&G)
Towards more equitable LSLA in Africa? Initiatives and lessons learned
• Although these
instruments/policies/initiatives are to be
promoted
• They remain very limited
o In scope
• Very few countries/initiatives
o In effect
• Few are effectively implemented
• Many are voluntary
• Very little enforcement
• Danger of legitimising LSLA
Towards more equitable LSLA in Africa? Initiatives and lessons learned
• Although these
instruments/policies/initiatives are to be
promoted
• They remain very limited
o In scope
• Very few countries/initiatives
o In effect
• Few are effectively implemented
• Many are voluntary
• Very little enforcement
• Danger of legitimising LSLA
Link to water???
Concluding thoughts• Agrarian change in Africa
o Yes, certainly – although little concrete, huge changes
o Change not there where expected/announced, by the
promotors of LSLA
o Corporate agriculture
• Governanceo Not only an investor issue
o Agricultural, land/water, democratic and overall
economic
o Some progress – but too little
• Lack of LT reflectiono Alternative development trajectories?
o Territorial approaches to development, including water
(beside others)
Thank you
Ward ANSEEUW
GovInn
CIRAD / University of Pretoria
Pretoria 0002
South Africa
Email: [email protected]