A GLOBAL OVERVIEW

UNCLASSIFIED # Cover Sheet

• Global Threat, Statement for the Record Senate Armed Services Committee, 11 February 2003

• HTTP://www.fas.org, Federation of American Scientists

• Terrorism, the Future, and U.S. Foreign Policy, Issue Brief for Congress, 8 January 2003

UNCLASSIFIED #2

Global Threat: ReferencesGlobal Threat: References

Near Term PrioritiesNear Term Priorities

UNCLASSIFIED #3

• Global Terrorism

- Most immediate concern to U.S. interests at home or abroad

- Many terrorist groups have the capabilities of doing us harm

Current List of Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (As of October 5, 2001)

• 1. Abu Nidal Organization (ANO) 2. Abu Sayyaf Group

• 3. Armed Islamic Group (GIA)

• 4. Aum Shinrikyo

• 5. Basque Fatherland and Liberty (ETA)

• 6. Gama'a al-Islamiyya (Islamic Group)

• 7. HAMAS (Islamic Resistance Movement)

• 8. Harakat ul-Mujahidin (HUM)

• 9. Hizballah (Party of God)

• 10. Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)

• 11. al-Jihad (Egyptian Islamic Jihad)

• 12. Kahane Chai (Kach)

•13. Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)

• 14. Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)

• 15. Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MEK)

• 16. National Liberation Army (ELN)

• 17. Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)

• 18. Palestine Liberation Front (PLF)

• 19. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP)

• 20. PFLP-General Command (PFLP-GC)

• 21. al-Qa'ida

• 22. Real IRA

• 23. Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)

• 24. Revolutionary Nuclei (formerly ELA)

• 25. Revolutionary Organization 17 November

• 26. Revolutionary People's Liberation Army/Front (DHKP/C)

• 27. Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso, SL)

• 28. United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC)

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Al Qaida

• Retains presence on six continents

• Draws support from legitimate and illegitimate organizations

• Network is adaptive, flexible, and more agile than us

• Look for future attacks in Europe

• Are actively seeking WMD and RDD

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Iraq

• Attack Kurds in North• Attack Israel and

regional states• “Energize” Arab

countries• Employ scorched earth

policy, destroying infrastructures and using WMD

UNCLASSIFIED #3

North Korea

• Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons reflect long term strategic goal

-income derived from weapons exports

-two stage Taepo-Dong 2 missile could target U.S. with nuclear payload

• Significant conventional military (infantry, armor, artillery, WMD) forebear a violent, destructive war with little or no warning

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Global RealitiesGlobal Realities

• These realities are enduring and foster hatred against west:

- reaction to U.S. dominance

- globalization - uneven economic and

demographic growth - general technology

proliferation - WMD proliferation

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Global Realities (cont.)Global Realities (cont.)

-declining global defense spending

- international crime

-increasing number of people in need

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Reaction to U.S. DominanceReaction to U.S. Dominance

• Many are concerned about expansion, consolidation, and dominance of American values, ideals, culture, and institutions

• Fear of losing cultural identity

• Fear of U.S. unilateralism

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Globalization

• Globalization is the increasing flow of money, goods, services, people, information, technology, and ideas

• It can be positive

• It can leave large numbers of people worse off and open for influence by subversive organizations

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Uneven Economic and Demographic Growth

• The world will add another billion people in 10-15 years, 95% in developing nations

• 20-30 million of poorest migrate to cities

• Cities will be unable to keep up with increase

• Resulting instability will increase power on dangerous non-state entities

UNCLASSIFIED #3

General Technology Proliferation

• New vulnerabilities, interdependencies, and capabilities are being created in advanced and less developed states

• The integration of various advancements and application of emerging technology makes it difficult to predict the fututre

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missile Proliferation

• States seek these for regional security and to deter U.S. superiority

• Globalization provides technology and materials to acquire

• New alliances have formed

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Declining Global Defense Spending

• Global defense spending has dropped 50% in the past decade.

• Adversaries and allies will not keep pace with the U.S.

• Foes driven to asymmetric options

• Technology transfers and embargoes will be more difficult to control

UNCLASSIFIED #3

International Crime

• Criminal groups around the world are broadening their activities in narcotics trafficking, alien smuggling, and illegal arms trading

• These groups can fund terrorism and use their networks to assist terrorists

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Regional Issues: Israel and Palestine

• Conflict is furthering anti-American sentiment

• Increasing pressure on moderate Middle East countries

• No end likely in near future

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Regional Issues: Pakistan and India

• Islamabad and Dehli has taken steps to defuse

• Tensions are still high, • Both sides retain large

forces and continue WMD and missile programs

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Regional Issues: Muslim World

• Pakistan• Afghanistan• Indonesia• Egypt• Jordan• Saudi Arabia• Turkey

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Other Actors:Iran• Iran is pursuing fissile

material. It will have a nuclear weapon within the decade

• It has biological warfare program and dual use equipment. It maintains a stockpile of chemical weapons

• Large missile force• Navy is most capable in

region

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Other Actors:Russia

• Russian cooperation in the war on terrorism, and muted reaction to NATO expansion is reassuring.

• Concern remains on proliferation of WMD security of its nuclear weapons, and expanding criminal syndicates.

UNCLASSIFIED #3

Other Actors:China

• Chinese military spending will continue growing

• Modernizing missile forces

• PLA is acquiring high-tech arms and emphasizing professionalism of officer corps

THE THREAT-ConclusionTHE THREAT-Conclusion

UNCLASSIFIED #25

• Just as our enemies are developing new ways to attack us, we must address the entire threat spectrum. Not only the traditional threats but emerging threats as well