a gas flow model for the nts network
DESCRIPTION
A GAS FLOW MODEL FOR THE NTS NETWORK. MELVIN BROWN CLAUDIA CENTAZZO JOGT Meeting, London, 5 June 2008. Presentation outline. Presentation of our outline for the model Presentation of the way forward Hear about the users requirements Discuss the way of engagement and the follow-up mechanism. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
A GAS FLOW MODEL FOR THE NTS NETWORK
MELVIN BROWNCLAUDIA CENTAZZO
JOGT Meeting, London, 5 June 2008
2
Presentation outline
• Presentation of our outline for the model
• Presentation of the way forward
• Hear about the users requirements
• Discuss the way of engagement and the follow-up mechanism
3
Smith Institute – who are we?
• The Smith Institute is a not-for-profit organisation
• We solve problems using mathematical modelling
• We work in a range of industrial sectors including energy and we have previous experience of working with Government and regulatory bodies as well as a wide variety of companies
• We have been commissioned by Ofgem to conduct a feasibility study on an independent gas flow model for the NTS
• The model is being presented today as a development & desktop implementation opportunity for NTS users
4
Motivation - interactions of user supply, demand & NTS capability
St. Fergus
Teesside
Easington
Rough
TheddlethorpeBacton
Barrow
Burton Point
user Auser D
user C
user B
demandNTS configuration
• Users’ perspective:
> interactions through NG> overheads & time> restricting user ability to
explore/understand NTS capability
> NTS capability under utilised
• => Model directed towards needs of users and easily accessible to them
5
Gas flow model - aims
CompressorsRegulators
St. Fergus
Teesside
Easington
Rough
TheddlethorpeBacton
Barrow
Terminals
Burton Point
• Provide users with:
> improved understanding of NTS capability and its technical capacity
> desktop interaction with constraints & opportunities
> a transparent and easy system to use
• In particular:
> to identify entry capacity options N months in the future for a range of demand scenarios
6
Gas flow model - advantages
CompressorsRegulators
St. Fergus
Teesside
Easington
Rough
TheddlethorpeBacton
Barrow
Terminals
Burton Point
• Key features of the proposed model
> uses NTS data• Up-to-date - present and planned• range of demand scenarios
> easy for you to use • web-based PC interface
> fast• feasibility of entry capacity options returned in
~ minutes> validated against NG NTS data
• part of support & maintenance> User based forum for interaction with NTS &
NG • Alternative
> sophisticated network software (e.g. SynerGEE, FALCON)
> detailed system knowledge & high overheads
> correspondence without NTS interaction
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Gas flow model – users’ view User k
For each demand scenario:
NTS constraints violated
revise to ‘nearby’ supply vector
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Gas flow model – behind the scenes
Explore NTS capabilityNTS data & constraints
Users:
supply & demand vectors
NG
NG:
TYS etc
users
9
Gas flow model - in practice
Secure model & web server
System admin, testing & maintenance
Users – model interaction
Model development testing & release
NTS data NG
Users, NG, others?
User queries and responses
NTS data updates
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Development of the follow-on process
Driven by users
• Phase 1: steady state entry and exit capacities, including line-pack off-take/supply for a range of demand scenarios; NG TYS as a starting point
• Phase 2: dynamic - flexibility to model the variation of demand during the day (hourly)
• Phase 3: modelling costs of new capacities, fuel usage and effects of new entry/exit points – forecasting tool
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Gas flow model – development cycle
• For each phase:
> Requirements• User, data, technical, security, maintenance
> Design and implementation> Testing – including users> Release> Maintenance
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Development of follow-on process – Phase 1
We are here to explore the funding options for Phase 1 with the gas industry as starting point.
Phase 1 (steady state model) will involve:
a) development of model, b) implementation and testing in IT system, c) service delivery to users desktops (plus maintenance
and users support)We have held initial discussions with a commercial organisation(Tessella, www.tessella.com) to partner on b) and c)
• Cost: ~ £250-300k
• Time scale: ~10 months from commitment of funds from the industry
• Further: licence arrangements for users
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Open discussion
We welcome your views …
