a demographic profile of the rising american electorate in...

A Demographic Profile of the Rising American Electorate in 2016

Celinda Lake, Joshua E. Ulibarri, and Caroline Bye

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066

http://www.lakeresearch.com/

• The Voter Participation Center (VPC) is a 501(c)3 nonprofit, nonpartisan organization and does not endorse candidates.

• VPC is dedicated to increasing the share of unmarried women, minorities, Millennials, and other historically under-represented groups in the electorate.

The Voter Participation Center

2

• Sources and Methods 4

• Key Findings 7

• The RAE in 2016 10

• RAE Vote Change 18

• 2016 Turnout 35

• How Ballots Were Cast in 2016 40

• Reasons for Not Voting in 2016 53

• Voter Registration and Turnout in 2016 78

• Population Mobility in 2016 141

• The RAE and the Economy 162

Table of Contents

3

Sources and Methods: The Current Population Survey

• Unless noted, all of the data in this report are from the Current Population Survey (CPS), the November 2016 CPS supplements on voting and registration and the March 2016 CPS supplements on income.

– The CPS is a monthly survey of about 50,000 households conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

– Information on reported voting and registration by various demographic and socioeconomic characteristics is collected by CPS in November of congressional and presidential election years.

• The CPS uses a multistage probability sample based on the results of the decennial census, with coverage in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The sample is continually updated.

• Working class is defined as non-college.

• Median income is rounded to the nearest $1,000.

4

Sources and Methods: Calculating 2018 Drop-off

To estimate population in 2018, CPS counts of the Voting Eligible Population (VEP) were pulled from historic data.

• Data were divided by state and then into demographic subgroups of Latino, non-Latino Rising American Electorate (RAE), and non-RAE, as those populations are growing at different rates.

• A rolling average was calculated, such that each month’s data was represented by an average of that month and the 11 preceding months. This was done to smooth out random fluctuations in the data that were the result of sampling error. From these rolling averages, the monthly increase in population was estimated and multiplied by 24 to give an estimate of the increase in population between November 2016 and November 2018.

• Data was then summed by state and by demographic subgroup to produce total national estimates.

5

• The Rising American Electorate (RAE) – unmarried women, Millennials (ages 18-34)*, and minorities (as defined by the Census) – now accounts for more than half of the Vote Eligible Population (VEP) in this country (59.2%).

• The Vote Eligible Population (VEP) refers to eligible citizens 18 and over.

• While RAE turnout has increased in recent elections, the RAE still do not register to vote or turn out in proportion to their share of the population.

The Rising American Electorate

*Millennials are defined as citizens coming of age during 2000 and in subsequent years, i.e., born in or after 1982. Using this definition, the 2016 data in this presentation includes those up to age 34, while all data prior to 2016 in this presentationincludes adults who are older in the present-day, as “Millennials” is a moving generation range. Although voters may have aged out of the current Millennial definition, their voting behaviors may continue to align with this group, and special attention should still be given to this generation of younger, millennial voters.

6

• In 2016, there were nearly 133 million eligible voters in the RAE. This comprised 59.2% of the VEP in the country.

• Although they accounted for nearly six in ten eligible voters in 2016, RAE voters made up barely half (52.6%) of the total electorate in 2016. This was the first time in history that the RAE comprised the majority of the electorate.

• While the number of RAE voters increased by more than 8 million in 2012 to 2016, the number of non-RAE voters decreased by 3.5 million.

• In 2004 (VPC's first cycle), RAE were 44.6% of VEP; by 2016, they had grown to 59.2% of VEP. The non-RAE were 55.4% of VEP in 2004 and 40.8% of VEP in 2016.

• Turnout in 2016 was higher than turnout in 2012 among all RAE groups, except for African American voters.

Source: CPS November 2016

7

Key Findings from 2016

• One in three RAE voters who turned out in 2016 will not turn out in 2018.

• The predicted drop-off among non-RAE voters is only 22.1% or 14.4 million voters. In fact, of the approximately 40 million Americans predicted to drop-off in 2018, nearly two-thirds will come from the RAE. RAE drop-off is expected to be 35.1% or 25.4 million.

• Turnout is predicted to drop the most among Millennial voters and unmarried women.

– This trend was also true between 2008 and 2014.

• Among key 2018 states, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, and Nevada are expected to see the biggest drop-off rates among RAE voters.

Distribution of Drop-off Voters

2018RAE

63.8%

Non-RAE36.2%

8


Key Findings from 2018 Drop-off

• A large registration gap continues to obstruct members of the RAE from voting. While only 21.9% of the non-RAE reports not being registered, the RAE has a 35% unregistered rate, with even higher unregistered percentages among Latinos (42.7%), Asian Americans (43.7%), and Millennials (39.3%).

• For the first time in history, in 2016, a majority of vote eligible women were unmarried. However, turnout among unmarried women dropped from 57.8% in 2012 to 57.0% in 2016.

• An important trend to watch is the growing use of vote-by-mail and mail-in registration as a method for engaging Latino and Asian American voters; 32.3% of Asian Americans voted by mail.

• A very large share (42.6%) of the RAE moved since the previous presidential election, highlighting the importance of re-registration. The most mobile group here is Millennials (54.6%).

• The RAE are less likely to own homes, less likely to receive a pension from their employer, and more likely to live below the poverty line than their non-RAE counterparts.

9


Key Demographic Findings

The Rising American Electorate in 2016

Unmarried women –

58.4 millionAfrican

Americans –28.8 million

Millennials 18-34 years old – 65.2 million

Latinos –26.7 million

Other race –17.4 million

African American unmarried women –

11.3 million

Other race unmarried women –

4.6 million

Unmarried Latinas – 7.6

million

Unmarried Millennial women –

22.8 million

133 million eligible voters (59.2% of the

VEP) were in the Rising American Electorate.

In 2016, there were nearly 133 million unique individuals comprising the Rising American Electorate. Unmarried women and Millennials were far and away the largest segments, but there is much overlap between them.

Asian Americans –10.3 million

Unmarried Asian American

women – 2.2 million

11


In 2016, the largest shares of the RAE were concentrated in the South and on the coasts, but the RAE was a significant share of the population in each state.

More than 62%

55%-62%

50%-54%

Less than 50%

2016 RAE Share of VEP Population by State

12

Top 5 States

Hawaii 87.1%

New Mexico 76.0%

California 71.6%

Texas 68.1%

Maryland 66.7%


Examining the 2016 map, unmarried women were a sizable share of the population in every state. Southern states had some of the highest shares of unmarried women, while the share of unmarried women was lower in the Upper Plains.

More than 27%

25%-27%

23%-24%

Less than 23%

2016 Unmarried Women VEP Population by State

13

Top 5 States

Louisiana 29.5%

New York 29.2%

Mississippi 29.0%

New Mexico 28.9%

Maryland 28.3%



VEP RAE VEP

States Total 2016 VEP 2016 RAE VEP % of State VEP

National 224,059,005 132,678,801 59.2%

Alabama 3,651,072 2,193,273 60.1%

Alaska 501,639 304,311 60.7%

Arizona 4,584,670 2,799,436 61.1%

Arkansas 2,115,745 1,078,874 51.0%

California 24,889,838 17,827,546 71.6%

Colorado 38,954,41 2,084,915 53.5%

Connecticut 2,483,320 1,312,797 52.9%

Delaware 668,835 379,260 56.7%

D.C. 511,580 423,805 82.8%

Florida 14,427,692 8,842,112 61.3%

Georgia 7,048,123 4,488,925 63.7%

Hawaii 973,879 847,985 87.1%

Idaho 1,150,035 547,891 47.6%

14Red coloration denotes key states in presidential yearsBlue coloration denotes key states in 2018 midtermsPurple coloration denotes key states in both 2018 and presidential years Source: CPS November 2016

VEP RAE VEP


National 224,059,005 132,678,801 59.2%

Illinois 8,970,275 5,382,820 60.0%

Indiana 4,795,469 2,503,972 52.2%

Iowa 2,291,733 1,096,595 47.9%

Kansas 2,028,988 1,035,455 51.0%

Kentucky 3,246,274 1,623,130 50.0%

Louisiana 3,353,100 2,185,974 65.2%

Maine 1,037,966 466,217 44.9%

Maryland 4,157,678 2,772,268 66.7%

Massachusetts 4,967,260 2,705,120 54.5%

Michigan 7,332,176 3,833,980 52.3%

Minnesota 3,985,205 1,974,247 49.5%

Mississippi 2,169,854 1,387,841 64.0%

Missouri 4,486,369 2,321,839 51.8%



VEP RAE VEP


National 224,059,005 132,678,801 59.2%

Montana 790,393 357,009 45.2%

Nebraska 1,336,447 670,902 50.2%

Nevada 1,974,920 1,238,887 62.7%

New Hampshire 1,011,892 423,214 41.8%

New Jersey 5,957,656 3,572,248 60.0%

New Mexico 1,396,210 1,060,702 76.0%

New York 13,750,917 8,691,355 63.2%

North Carolina 6,960,196 4,216,812 60.6%

North Dakota 564,395 272,566 48.3%

Ohio 8,498,949 4,404,256 51.8%

Oklahoma 2,746,041 1,539,029 56.0%

Oregon 2,928,661 1,468,934 50.2%

Pennsylvania 9,596,123 4,904,362 51.1%



VEP RAE VEP


National 224,059,005 132,678,801 59.2%

Rhode Island 765,791 422,880 55.2%

South Carolina 3,597,921 1,963,206 54.6%

South Dakota 612,430 273,167 44.6%

Tennessee 4,871,818 2,624,768 53.9%

Texas 17,377,552 11,833,721 68.1%

Utah 1,968,930 1,020,696 51.8%

Vermont 488,495 214,964 44.0%

Virginia 5,829,279 3,506,107 60.1%

Washington 5,103,822 2,698,503 52.9%

West Virginia 1,424,679 631,645 44.3%

Wisconsin 4,353,843 2,038,322 46.8%

Wyoming 427,430 209,958 49.1%



RAE Vote Change

National Vote Change: 2012-2016

• RAE Voters Gained: 12.6%

+8.1 million votes

• Non-RAE Voters Lost: -5.1%

-3.5 million votes 2012

2016

Voter Distribution of the Electorate

RAE VEP Population: 59.2%

Non-RAE51.7%

RAE48.3%

Non-RAE 47.4%

RAE52.6%

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

RAE Non-RAE

2012 2016

+8.1 M-3.5 M

Voter Turnout

19


• Unmarried Women Voters Gained: +4.5%

+1.4 million votes

• African American Voters Lost: -3.9%

-694.4 thousand votes

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

Unmarried Women Latinos African Americans Millennials

2012 2016

• Latino Voters Gained: +13.4%

+1.5 million votes

• Millennial Voters Gained: +41.6%

+9.4 million votes

+1.4 M

+1.5 M

-694.4 K

+9.4 M

National Vote Change: 2012-2016

20


In 2016, the RAE comprised a majority (52.6%) of the electorate for the first time in history. However, the gap between the RAE’s share of the VEP and share of the electorate has grown slightly from 2008 (5.2%) to 2016 (6.6%).

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

RAE in Presidential Elections

RAE share of VEP

RAE share of electorate

39.9%

44.6%

49.4%

54.3%

59.2%

34.7%

38.8%

44.2%

48.3%

52.6%

6.6%

5.2%

21


The RAE is projected to be just over a majority of the electorate in 2018. The midterm RAE gap, between the VEP and electorate share, has not widened as dramatically as it has for presidential elections.

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

RAE in Midterm Elections

RAE share of VEP

RAE share of electorate

42.1%

46.9%

51.9%

56.7%

61.6%

33.5%

36.6%

41.3%

44.2%

50.5%

11.1%

10.6%

22


RAE groups have increased dramatically as a share of the electorate in presidential elections since 2000. Not surprisingly, much of that growth has been fueled by Millennial voters. The non-RAE declined by almost 18 points from 2000 to 2016.*

65.2% 61.2%55.8% 51.7% 47.4%

1.0% 6.5% 12.5% 16.9% 23.2%

11.7% 11.1% 12.3% 13.4% 12.4%5.4% 6.0% 7.4% 8.4% 9.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

Share of electorate, presidential elections

Non-RAE Millennials African American Latino

23*This growth, spurred largely by the growth of the Millennial subgroup, must be addressed. We will need to set a cutoff for Millennials and begin to explore Generation Z, or the RAE will continue to grow.


Projected growth among Millennial and Latino voters could result in the non-RAE dipping just below 50% of voters in 2018 for the first time in an off-year election.

66.5% 63.4% 58.7% 55.8%49.5%

2.1% 5.7%10.2% 13.5%

16.8%

11.2% 10.3% 11.6% 12.0%12.5%

5.1% 5.8% 6.9% 7.3% 8.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Share of electorate, midterm elections

Non-RAE Millennials African American Latino(Projection)

24


While the pace of change is slow, unmarried women have increased as a share of the electorate (from 21% in 2000 to 24% in 2016). Overall, unmarried voters increased their share of the electorate from 35% in 2000 to 41% in 2016.

32.5% 34.3% 31.5% 32.9% 30.0% 32.3% 29.6% 32.1% 29.4%

32.4%32.9%

31.4%32.5%

30.5%31.5%

29.7%31.5%

29.4%

14.0%12.9%

15.0%14.0%

16.3%15.0%

16.7%14.6%

17.0%

21.1% 19.9% 22.2% 20.6% 23.2% 21.2% 24.0% 21.9% 24.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Share of Electorate, 2000-2016

Married Men Married Women Unmarried Men Unmarried Women

25


Breaking down gender, marital status and race, reveals the power of the married white voting bloc. Married white voters have fluctuated around 50% of the electorate, with slight bumps to their vote share in midterm elections.

27.6% 29.3% 26.3% 27.7%24.4% 26.5% 23.7% 26.2%

23.1%

27.4%27.9%

26.1%27.3%

24.9%25.8%

23.7%25.4%

23.1%

10.6%10.0%

11.1%10.8%

11.5%10.8%

11.1%

10.3%

11.6%

15.1% 14.2%15.6%

14.6%

15.5%14.4%

15.2%14.4%

15.5%

2.5% 2.6%2.3% 2.3%

2.3% 2.4%2.5%

2.4%2.4%

2.5% 2.6%2.3% 2.2%

2.3% 2.4%

2.4%2.4%

2.3%

2.3% 1.9%2.2% 1.9%

2.8% 2.4%3.1%

2.4%2.7%

4.3% 4.2%4.3% 4.0%

4.9% 4.5%5.4%

4.8%5.0%

1.6% 1.6%1.7% 1.7%

2.2% 2.1%2.2% 2.1%

2.4%

1.7% 1.7%1.8% 1.7%

2.0% 2.0%2.2% 2.2%

2.4%

0.8% 0.7%1.1% 0.9%

1.4% 1.2%1.8% 1.2%

1.8%

1.2% 1.1%1.5% 1.4% 1.9% 1.6% 2.3% 1.9%

2.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Share of Electorate, 2000-2016

Married White Men Married White Women Unmarried White Men

Unmarried White Women Married Black Men Married Black Women

Unmarried Black Men Unmarried Black Women Married Latino Men

Married Latina Women Unmarried Latino Men Unmarried Latina Women

26


2012 2016

Unmarried Women 55,151,532+3.3 million, 5.9% increase

58,403,437

Married Women 56,907,900+1.2 million, 2.1% increase

58,101,737

2012 2016

Unmarried Women 31,854,317+1.4 million, 4.5% increase

33,295,611

Married Women 39,543,006+896.4 thousand, 2.3% increase

40,439,448

For the first time in history, in 2016, a majority of vote eligible women were unmarried.

CPS Estimates of the Vote Eligible Population

CPS Estimates of the Electorate

27


Unmarried women are projected to be 23% of voters in 2018. This is a 3 point increase from the mid-term election of 2002 and their highest share of the electorate ever in an off-year election.

21%20%

22%21%

23%21%

24%22%

24% 23%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Share of Electorate

Unmarried Women(Projection)

28


Of the unmarried women in the electorate, most are white unmarried women, followed by black unmarried women, Latina unmarried women, and lastly Asian unmarried women.

15.1%14.2%

15.6%14.6%

15.5%14.4% 15.2% 14.4%

15.5%

4.3%4.2%

4.3%

4.0%

4.9%

4.5%

5.4%

4.8%

5.0%

1.2%

1.1%

1.5%

1.4%

1.9%

1.6%

2.3%

1.9%

2.6%

0.4%

0.3%

0.4%

0.4%

0.5%

0.4%

0.6%

0.5%

0.7%

0%

10%

20%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Share of Electorate

Unmarried White Women Unmarried Black Women Unmarried Latina Women Unmarried Asian Women

29*We don’t run 2018 projections at this level of nesting of demographics.


National Vote Change

RAE52.6%

RAE NON-RAE

States(Ranked by Highest RAE Growth)

2016 Vote – 2012 Vote % Change 2016 Vote – 2012 Vote % Change

National 8,103,890 12.6% -3,515,572 -5.1%

Wyoming 42,703 55.4% -12,458 -7.3%

Utah 163,527 45.4% 48,519 7.3%

Nebraska 122,655 44.3% -28,385 -5.4%

Idaho 78,374 38.1% -43,943 -9.3%

Maine 81,733 37.2% -27,476 -5.7%

West Virginia 72,531 36.6% -38,815 -7.9%

Kentucky 242,595 36.6% -288,258 -23.4%

Indiana 252,916 25.1% -259,218 -14.5%

Nevada 139,158 24.8% 8,182 1.7%

Virginia 439,598 24.0% -244,068 -12.5%

Colorado 250,764 24.0% -39,208 -2.7%

Arizona 271,388 23.0% 85,239 6.9%

New Hampshire 47,811 22.0% -38,090 -8.1%

30

In almost every state, the RAE increased their share of the electorate, while the non-RAE decreased their share. However, there are a few

states where the non-RAE also increased from 2012-2016.

Red coloration denotes key states in presidential yearsBlue coloration denotes key states in 2018 midtermsPurple coloration denotes key states in both 2018 and presidential years Source: CPS November 2016


RAE52.6%

RAE NON-RAE



National 8,103,890 12.6% -3,515,572 -5.1%

Minnesota 217,359 21.5% -337,564 -18.3%

Maryland 297,636 20.4% -170,292 -14.8%

Arkansas 90,331 19.8% 26,849 4.0%

Alabama 193,602 19.7% -252,244 -21.6%

Vermont 19,450 19.6% -22,107 -10.6%

Missouri 215,287 19.0% -127,700 -7.6%

Pennsylvania 445,312 18.9% -261,042 -7.5%

Rhode Island 36,775 18.5% -42,079 -15.6%

Alaska 24,940 18.3% -6,343 -4.1%

Montana 29,592 18.3% -4,202 -1.3%

North Dakota 23,214 18.1% 10,543 5.3%

Connecticut 105,978 16.2% -87,419 -9.6%

Texas 758,473 15.4% 224,414 6.0%

Illinois 394,619 14.9% -103,522 -3.7%



RAE52.6%

RAE NON-RAE



National 8,103,890 12.6% -3,515,572 -5.1%

Kansas 67,368 14.9% -73,092 -9.2%

Washington 194,358 14.3% 15,275 0.8%

California 1,089,264 13.2% -135,481 -2.6%

Massachusetts 183,102 13.0% -250,703 -12.7%

Iowa 66,619 12.4% -161,043 -15.9%

Oklahoma 78,447 12.1% 45,297 5.8%

Oregon 89,793 12.1% -44,741 -3.9%

North Carolina 256,454 10.9% -180,480 -8.0%

Delaware 19,601 10.0% -33,915 -14.5%

Florida 401,774 9.3% 69,344 1.8%

D.C. 25,137 8.9% 5,084 7.4%

New York 319,805 7.7% -125,949 -3.6%



RAE52.6%

RAE NON-RAE



National 8,103,890 12.6% -3,515,572 -5.1%

Michigan 97,513 4.9% -216,272 -7.6%

New Jersey 67,748 3.6% -72,135 -4.0%

Tennessee 41,173 3.6% -16,252 -1.1%

Georgia 69,400 2.9% 8,748 0.5%

Ohio 68,442 2.9% -54,782 -1.8%

South Dakota 2,462 2.0% -10,712 -4.4%

Louisiana 15,334 1.3% -96,808 -10.4%

Hawaii 3,042 0.8% -22,821 -20.9%

South Carolina 1,730 0.2% 43,880 4.2%

New Mexico -12,363 -2.3% -100,628 -29.6%

Wisconsin -45,477 -3.7% -13,937 -0.7%

Mississippi -55,154 -5.8% -62,763 -9.8%


There has been a surge of RAE voters, and we expect this growth to continue.

• From 2012 to 2016, the national growth rate for the RAE was 12.6%, adding 8 million new RAE voters to the electorate.

• The number of unmarried women, African Americans, Latinos, and Millennials continues to grow, increasing their importance in the electorate year-after-year. This growth trajectory is likely true among Asian Americans as well, but this is the first year we have pulled data on this racial group.

• Key 2018 states with the highest growth included Nevada (139.2 thousand new RAE voters, 24.8% growth), West Virginia (72.5 thousand new RAE voters, 36.6% growth), Indiana (252.9 thousand new RAE voters, 25.1% growth), Colorado (250.8 thousand new RAE voters, 24.0% growth), and Arizona (271.4 thousand new RAE voters, 23.0% growth).

34


2016 Turnout

In 2016, turnout for the RAE and non-RAE was comparable to 2012 levels. RAE turnout stood at 16 points lower than non-RAE in the last presidential election.

55%

70%

33%

54%55%

71%

RAE Non-RAE

% Voted in 2012

% Voted in 2014

% Voted in 2016

Turnout: 2012 – 2016

36


In 2016, turnout for African Americans was down 7 points relative to 2012. Turnout for Millennials went up 3 points.

55%

66%

48% 47% 46%

33%

40%

27% 27%

22%

55%

59%

48% 49% 49%

RAE African American Latino Asian Millennials

% Voted in 2012

% Voted in 2014

% Voted in 201637

Turnout: 2012 – 2016


Turnout dropped across the board during the 2014 midterm election, though drop-off is slightly greater among unmarried individuals. The least likely voters to drop-off were married men, while the most likely voters to drop-off were unmarried women.

69%

58%

68%

49%50%

36%

51%

28%

70%

57%

68%

48%

Married Women Unmarried Women Married Men Unmarried Men

% Voted in 2012

% Voted in 2014

% Voted in 201638

Turnout: 2012 – 2016


Voter drop-off in 2014 was least extreme among married white men and was most extreme among unmarred black women.

71% 72%

50%

58%

70%73%

56%

69%

53%55%

40%

46%

55%53%

31%

38%

46%51%

29%

40%

33%35%

18%

24%

72% 73%

52%

59%

66%69%

47%

61%

53% 54%

38%

46%

MarriedWhite Men

MarriedWhite

Women

UnmarriedWhite Men

UnmarriedWhite

Women

MarriedBlack Men

MarriedBlack

Women

UnmarriedBlack Men

UnmarriedBlack

Women

MarriedLatino Men

MarriedLatina

Women

UnmarriedLatino Men

UnmarriedLatina

Women

% Voted in 2012

% Voted in 2014

% Voted in 201639

Turnout: 2012 – 2016


How Ballots Were Cast in 2016

In the aggregate, there was not a meaningful difference between the RAE and the Non-RAE in method of voting: the majority vote in person, with just one in five voting by mail.

78.8% 78.4%

20.6% 21.3%

RAE Non-RAE

In Person

By mail

How Votes Were Cast

41


African American women were the most likely to vote in person (88.6%), followed by Latinas (76.5%). Millennials were also highly likely to vote in person, while Asian Americans were the most likely group in the RAE to vote by mail.

78.8%

88.6%

76.5%

66.6%

79.8%

20.6%

10.7%

22.8%

32.3%

19.5%


In Person

By Mail

How Votes Were Cast

42


Among working class men, African Americans were 10 points more likely to vote at the polls than any other group. Asian and Latino men were the most likely to vote by mail. This is likely driven by the high rates of mail voting in states like Hawaii, Washington, California, Arizona and Colorado where the population of these groups is high.

80.3%

90.3%

75.8%70.8%

19.4%

9.1%

23.3%28.6%

White Working Class Men African American Working Class Men Latino Working Class Men Asian Working Class Men

In Person

By Mail

How Votes Were Cast

43


While the trends for working class women were similar to working class men, Asian working class women were even more likely than Asian working class men to cast their vote by mail.

76.9%

89.5%

76.6%

66.0%

22.7%

9.7%

22.6%

32.7%

White Working Class Women African American Working ClassWomen

Latina Working Class Women Asian Working Class Women

In Person

By Mail

How Votes Were Cast

44


Poll voting is still a very important method for young African American voters; 91.8% of black voters under 30 cast a ballot in person. Mail voting was extremely high among young Asian voters.

78.0%

91.8%

74.7%

61.0%

21.4%

7.6%

23.7%

36.1%

White under 30 African American under 30 Latino under 30 Asian American under 30

In Person

By Mail

How Votes Were Cast

45


Voting by mail was less popular among Asian and Latino voters ages 30-49 than it was for younger or older voters of the same racial group.

82.3%

89.5%

80.0%

72.0%

17.3%

9.3%

19.5%

27.3%

White 30-49 African American 30-49 Latino 30-49 Asian 30-49

In Person

By Mail

How Votes Were Cast

46


Voters over the age of 50 were the most likely to make vote by mail or absentee ballot, although in person voting was still used by the vast majority of voters, especially African American voters.

75.6%

86.4%

74.3%

64.1%

24.1%

13.1%

25.3%

35.1%

White 50 & over African American 50 & over Latino 50 & over Asian 50 & over

In Person

By Mail

How Votes Were Cast

47


Unmarried women were somewhat more likely to vote by mail (22.1%) than other groups, while unmarried men were the most likely to vote at the polls (79.5%).

78.9% 77.1% 79.0% 79.5%

20.8% 22.1% 20.7% 19.9%


In Person

By Mail

How Votes Were Cast

48


Black married men were the most likely to vote in person, while Asian married men were the most likely to vote by mail.

79.0%

86.7%

76.5%

69.8%

20.7%

12.9%

23.1%29.6%

Married White Men Married Black Men Married Latino Men Married Asian Men

In Person

By Mail

How Votes Were Cast

49


Among married women, African Americans were most likely to vote in person and almost a third of Asian women voted by mail.

78.8%

88.5%

76.8%

69.1%

20.9%

11.1%

22.6%

30.2%

Married White Women Married Black Women Married Latina Women Married Asian Women

In Person

By Mail

How Votes Were Cast

50


Ninety percent of unmarried black men voted in person while almost 40% of unmarried Asian men voted by mail.

78.2%

90.4%

77.2%

60.1%

21.4%

8.6%

21.6%

38.1%

Unmarried White Men Unmarried Black Men Unmarried Latino Men Unmarried Asian Men

In Person

By Mail

How Votes Were Cast

51


The trend also sticks for unmarried women; unmarried black women were the most likely to vote in person, and unmarried Asian women were the most likely to vote by mail.

74.6%

88.4%

75.6%

61.3%

24.7%

10.5%

23.5%

36.5%


In Person

By Mail

How Votes Were Cast

52


Reasons for Not Voting in 2016

RAE members were the most likely to report being too busy or having a conflicting work schedule as their reason for not voting (15.0%), while non-RAE members were more likely to cite illness (15.2%) or a lack of interest in the candidates (27.2%).

15.0%

10.0%

15.7%

23.7%

3.4%

12.8%

15.2% 14.9%

27.2%

2.0%

Too busy, conflicting work orschool schedule

Illness or disability (own orfamily's)

Not interested, felt my votewouldn't count

Didn't like candidates orcampaign issues

Forgot to vote (or send inabsentee ballot)

RAE

Non-RAE

Reason for Not Voting

54


There are other logistical difficulties cited as reasons for not voting, and these reasons were slightly more prominent for RAE voters in comparison to non-RAE voters.

5.0%

2.9%

7.9%

2.2%

3.1%

2.0%

8.0%

2.1%

Registration problems (i.e. didn'treceive absentee ballot, not

registered in current location)

Transportation problems Out of town or away from home Inconvenient hours, polling place orhours or lines too long

RAE

Non-RAE


55


Millennials were the most likely to report being too busy or having a conflicting work schedule as their reason for not voting (19.3%), while African Americans were the most likely to cite not being interested or feeling like their vote wouldn’t count as their reason for not voting (18.6%). Latinos were the most likely to specifically say they didn’t like the candidates or issues (25.2%).

15.0%

10.0%

15.7%

23.7%

3.4%

13.5%

11.7%

18.6%19.6%

3.7%

16.2%

7.3%

16.5%

25.2%

3.3%

16.2%

6.5%

17.0%

22.3%

2.8%

19.3%

3.1%

16.6%

23.5%

3.7%






RAE

African American

Latino

Asian

Millennial


56


Millennials were the most likely to report registration problems (6.1%) while African Americans were the most likely to report transportation problems (4.5%). Asians were the most likely to cite being out of town or away from home (11.0%)

5.0%

2.9%

7.9%

2.2%

4.0%

4.5%

6.7%

2.6%

5.4%

0.6%

7.6%

3.2%3.3%

1.0%

11.0%

0.9%

6.1%

1.8%

9.8%

2.3%




RAE

African American

Latino

Asian

Millennial


57


White and African American working class voters were more likely to report illness or disability as an obstacle to voting. African American working class voters were the least likely to report dissatisfaction with the candidates and the most likely to feel their vote wouldn’t count.

16.2%

9.7%

16.8%

26.0%

2.7%

15.8%

8.5%

20.6%18.8%

3.9%

17.7%

5.6%

18.2%

26.1%

3.0%

16.9%

5.1%

11.7%

27.8%

6.5%






White Working Class Men

African American Working Class Men

Latino Working Class Men

Asian Working Class Men


58


Working class Latinos were the most likely to report registration problems, while working class African Americans were most likely to cite transportation problems.

3.6%

2.3%

8.9%

1.9%

4.0%

4.4%

7.8%

1.3%

5.6%

0.3%

7.0%

3.7%

3.1%

8.2%








0.0%


59

0.0%


White and Latina working class women were more likely to report dissatisfaction with the candidates or campaign than their peers. Asian working class women were more likely to cite being too busy.

11.2%

17.9%

13.5%

25.7%

2.7%

10.7%

15.8%17.7%

19.5%

3.2%

14.6%

9.0%

14.9%

27.5%

4.6%

18.1%

8.1%

15.3%

18.7%

0.4%






White Working Class Women

African American Working Class Women

Latina Working Class Women

Asian Working Class Women


60


Asian working class women were the most likely to cite being out of town. African American working class women mention transportation problems.

4.7%

3.9%

5.4%

1.8%

3.9%

5.3%

4.3%

3.0%3.4%

1.0%

4.7%

3.5%

2.0%

3.4%

9.6%

Registration problems (i.e. didn'treceive absentee ballot, not registered

in current location)







61

0.0%


Young African American voters were the most likely to report a lack of interest in the election, although they were less likely to say that was because they didn’t like the candidates. Young Latinos are the most likely to cite being too busy.

18.3%

2.5%

15.9%

22.8%

3.7%

17.1%

4.4%

21.9%

19.9%

4.4%

22.5%

1.4%

13.8%

24.8%

4.2%

7.8%

4.6%

15.4%

25.0%

2.0%






White under 30

African American under 30

Latino under 30

Asian American under 30


62


Young Asian Americans were twice as likely to say being out of town was a conflict for voting.

7.0%

2.2%

12.3%

2.1%

5.9%

2.0%

6.6%

2.2%

5.3%

0.5%

10.1%

4.2%

6.3%

21.5%

2.1%




White under 30


Latino under 30



63

0.0%


Middle-aged Asians were more likely to cite a busy work schedule and that they forgot to vote. Middle-aged whites and Latinos talk more about not liking the candidate.

18.7%

6.4%

16.1%

27.6%

2.4%

16.7%

5.8%

20.8%

24.5%

2.2%

17.7%

4.3%

19.8%

27.1%

2.4%

23.5%

5.2%

21.3% 21.3%

5.0%






White 30-49

African American 30-49

Latino 30-49

Asian 30-49


64


Middle-aged Latinos were the most likely to have registration problems, while middle-aged African American voters had transportation problems. Middle aged whites were the most likely to be out of town; this is a change in trends from voters under 30, of whom Asians were far more likely to be out of town (21.5%).

4.9%

1.5%

7.9%

2.1%2.2%

6.0% 6.1%

2.4%

7.3%

3.8%

2.6%3.2%

4.5%

1.0%




White 30-49


Latino 30-49

Asian 30-49

0.0% 0.0%


65


Older African American voters were favorable of the candidates and issues, but were likely to cite an illness or disability as an obstacle to voting. These rates of citing illness and disability are substantially higher among all those 50 and older.

7.6%

23.9%

12.0%

26.8%

2.4%

6.4%

25.5%

12.8%14.3%

4.6%6.2%

19.3%

14.7%

22.9%

3.6%

14.9%

8.9%

14.1%

21.4%

1.3%






White 50 & over

African American 50 & over

Latino 50 & over

Asian 50 & over


66


Older Latino and Asian voters were the least likely to have transportation problems, but the most likely to cite being away from home.

2.4%

3.9%

6.1%

1.8%

3.8%

5.6%

7.5%

3.1%2.6%

1.6%

10.5%

2.7%

1.4%

2.5%

10.2%

0.0%




White 50 & over


Latino 50 & over

Asian 50 & over


67


Unmarried women were the least likely to report being too busy to vote (11.4%). But, unmarried and married women were more likely than men to cite illness or disability as an obstacle to voting (15.4% and 14.3%, respectively).

14.4% 14.3% 15.0%

25.6%

2.8%

11.4%

15.4%

13.4%

23.6%

3.4%

17.7%

9.5%

15.6%

24.5%

2.4%

14.7%

7.3%

17.8%

25.7%

3.2%






Married Women

Unmarried Women

Married Men

Unmarried Men


68


Unmarried voters were more likely to have transportation problems, while both married and unmarried men were more likely to report being out of town.

5.0%

1.6%

5.2%

1.9%

4.8%4.2%

6.4%

2.0%

3.7%

0.9%

10.9%

2.6%

4.1%

2.8%

9.2%

2.1%




Married Women

Unmarried Women

Married Men

Unmarried Men


69


Looking at the breakout of gender, marital status and race, Asian married men were the most likely to feel their vote would not count. This trend was not followed by either unmarried Asian men or married Asian women, and is unique to this cohort.

17.8%

10.2%

14.7%

25.3%

2.3%

17.7%

7.6%

14.7%

19.7%

4.0%

17.6%

9.0%

16.6%

23.7%

2.4%

17.4%

4.1%

20.8%

24.3%

3.1%






Married White Men

Married Black Men

Married Latino Men

Married Asian Men


70


Among married men, African American married men are the most likely to be out of town or away from home. This is unique to married black men. Married black women are the least likely to be out of town (among married women).

3.3%

0.8%

11.2%

2.8%2.3%

3.4%

14.1%

4.3%

6.8%

0.5%

8.2%

1.3%

4.9%

0.0%

7.8%

0.0%




Married White Men

Married Black Men

Married Latino Men

Married Asian Men


71


White married women were the most likely, among all groups in the race/marital status/gender breakout, to not vote because of a dislike for the candidates and campaign issues. Asian married women were also the most likely to be too busy or have a conflicting work schedule.

14.2%15.0%

14.1%

27.3%

2.6%

10.1%

17.7%19.4%

20.8%

3.9%

14.7%

10.5%

17.9%

25.1%

3.8%

21.8%

8.9%

17.8%16.3%

1.7%






Married White Women

Married Black Women

Married Latina Women

Married Asian Women


72


Among married women, Asian women were the most likely to cite being out of town or away from home as a reason for not voting. This matches trends among unmarried Asian women and unmarried Asian men, and is inverse to trends among married Asian men who were the least likely among married men to be out of town on Election Day.

5.3%

1.6%

5.3%

1.7%

5.1% 4.9% 4.6%

2.7%3.4%

0.0%

5.3%

1.5%

0.3%

1.6%

7.2%

1.4%




Married White Women

Married Black Women


Married Asian Women


73


Among all unmarried men, with the exception of African American unmarried men, “didn’t like candidate or campaign issues” was the top reason for not voting. For black unmarried men, the top reason was a lack of interest and a feeling that their vote wouldn’t count.

14.2%

8.1%

16.4%

26.7%

2.7%

14.2%

8.0%

21.9%

19.5%

4.3%

18.0%

2.6%

19.0%

26.0%

2.9%

14.0%

6.1%

12.3%

27.2%

8.2%






Unmarried White Men

Unmarried Black Men

Unmarried Latino Men

Unmarried Asian Men


74


Unmarried Asian men were the most likely to say that being out of town or away from home was the reason they did not vote. African American unmarried men were the most likely to cite transportation issues – a trend that is disproportionately true for blacks across marital status and gender lines.

4.2%

3.0%

10.1%

1.6%

4.7% 4.6%

7.0%

1.6%

5.0%

0.0%

9.2%

5.1%

0.0% 0.0%

16.4%

3.2%




Unmarried White Men

Unmarried Black Men


Unmarried Asian Men


75


White unmarried women were more likely that any other group to cite illness or disability (own or family’s) as a reason for not voting. Black unmarried women were the most like to feel their vote would not count.

10.2%

17.6%

12.3%

25.0%

3.2%

12.4%

14.7%

16.8%

19.4%

3.1%

14.7%

7.9%

13.4%

25.9%

4.1%

11.1%

7.1%

15.1%

22.7%

0.4%






Unmarried White Women

Unmarried Black Women

Unmarried Latino Women

Unmarried Asian Women


76


Asian unmarried women were much more likely to cite being out of town or away from home as a reason for not voting. Asian and Latina unmarried women were more likely to cite registration problems.

4.8% 4.9%

6.4%

1.8%

3.7%

4.8% 4.5%

2.8%

5.9%

1.4%

7.6%

4.1%

6.2%

2.0%

14.6%

0.0%






Unmarried Latino Women



77


Voter Registration and Turnout in 2016

In 2016, one in three members of the RAE were not registered, compared to just one in five unregistered members of the non-RAE.

54.5%

71.3%

10.4%

6.8%

35.0%21.9%

RAE Non-RAE

Not Registered

Registered but

Didn’t Vote

Voted

Registration and Voting Rates

46,492,658

13,831,722

72,354,421

19,970,208

6,227,870

65,182,126

79


African American voters had the highest turnout rate in the 2016 election, relative to other RAE voters. Millennial voters had the highest rate of not voting despite being registered.

54.5% 59.4%47.6% 49.0% 48.9%

10.4%9.9%

9.7% 7.2% 11.8%

35.0% 30.6%42.7% 43.7% 39.3%


Not Registered

Registered but Didn’t Vote

Voted


80


Married women had the highest turnout rates, followed closely by married men. There was a clear “marriage gap” when in comes to voter turnout.

57.0%69.6%

48.2%

68.5%

10.5%

6.8%

11.5%

7.4%

32.5%23.6%

40.3%

24.1%

Unmarried Women Married Women Unmarried Men Married Men

Not Registered

Registered but

Didn’t Vote

Voted


81


While there was a marriage gap in registration and voting rates, married white men were far more likely to be registered and turn out to vote than minority unmarried men.

72.1%65.6%

52.6% 54.6%

6.9%8.1%

8.9% 7.3%

20.9% 26.4%38.5% 38.0%


Not Registered

Registered but

Didn’t Vote

Voted


82


The same trend seen in married men is true in married women. Married white women were more likely to be registered and to vote than their minority counterparts, though married black women came close to the rates of married white women.

73.2% 69.5%

54.2% 52.2%

6.6%6.6%

8.5%6.0%

20.2% 24.0%37.3% 41.7%


Not Registered

Registered but

Didn’t Vote

Voted


83


Unmarried men were far less likely than their married male counterparts to be registered and to vote. Fifty-two percent of unmarried Latino men and unmarried Asian men were not registered to vote.

51.6% 47.0%37.7% 41.2%

11.5%12.6%

10.2% 6.7%

36.9% 40.4%52.0% 52.1%


Not Registered

Registered but

Didn’t Vote

Voted


84


While unmarried women were more likely to be registered and voting than their unmarried male counterparts, they still are far behind married women.

59.2% 61.4%46.5% 42.8%

10.5% 10.3%

10.9%9.2%

30.3% 28.3%42.6% 48.0%


Not Registered

Registered but

Didn’t Vote

Voted


85


In 2016, the RAE was underrepresented in the electorate relative to their share of all registered voters, while non-RAE voters were slightly over-represented.

59.2%

40.8%

54.7%

45.3%

52.6%47.4%

RAE Non-RAE

Share of VEP vs. Share of Registered Voters vs. Share of Electorate

86

Share of Vote Eligible Population

Share of Registered Voters

Share of ElectorateSource: CPS November 2016

Most RAE groups represented a lower share of the electorate than their share of registered voters and a lower share of registered voters than their share of the VEP. This reinforces the importance of registration and turnout efforts among RAE groups.

59.2%

12.9%11.9%

4.6%

29.1%

54.7%

12.7%9.7%

3.7%

25.1%

52.6%

12.4%9.2%

3.7%

23.2%


87





Married voters were a slightly larger share of the electorate than they were of registered voters. Unmarried voters, particularly unmarried men, display a larger gap between the electorate and registered voters.

25.9% 26.1% 26.4%

21.6%

28.2%

25.0%

28.5%

18.4%

29.4%

24.2%

29.4%

17.0%


88





Married white men were disproportionately represented in the electorate. Black married men were also slightly more represented in the electorate than in the vote eligible population, but this is not as extreme as the overrepresentation of white married men.

19.7%

2.2% 2.8%1.4%

22.1%

2.3% 2.5%1.2%

23.1%

2.4% 2.4% 1.2%


89





The trends of married women were similar to those of married men. White married women were largely overrepresented in the electorate. Black married women were slightly overrepresented.

19.3%

2.0% 2.8%1.5%

21.9%

2.2% 2.5%1.2%

23.1%

2.3% 2.4% 1.2%


90





Among all racial groups, unmarried men were underrepresented in the population of registered voters and in the electorate.

13.8%

3.6%2.9%

0.8%

12.4%

3.0%

2.0%

0.5%

11.6%

2.7%1.8%

0.5%


91





Among all racial groups, with the exception of African Americans, unmarried women were underrepresented in the electorate. Unmarried black women make up the same share of the electorate as they do the vote eligible population.

16.1%

5.0%

3.4%

1.0%

16.0%

5.1%

2.8%

0.7%

15.5%

5.0%

2.6%

0.7%


92





Voters who were not part of the RAE were more likely to have registered to vote at a town hall or government office.

26.2%

13.1% 12.9%

6.7%

24.7%22.0%

11.5%

3.2%

DMV Town hall or county/governmentregistration office

By mail School, hospital, or on campus

RAE

Non-RAE

Method of Registration

93


RAE voters were much more likely to report having registered online.

4.5%

8.1%

1.6%

5.2%

3.2%4.2%

0.4%

6.5%

Registration drive Online Public assistance agency Polling place

RAE

Non-RAE

94



Asian Americans and Latinos were the most likely to register by mail, while Millennials were the most likely to register at the DMV or at a school or campus.

26.2%

13.1% 12.9%

6.7%

24.7%

14.2%

11.5%

7.7%

25.3%

9.4%

16.2%

7.6%

25.2%

7.0%

18.6%

5.5%

29.9%

9.4%

11.4%

8.5%



RAE

African American

Latino

Asian

Millennial

95



Millennials were the most likely to register through online methods. African Americans and Latinos had a greater chance of registering at a registration drive than other demographic groups.

4.5%

8.1%

1.6%

5.2%

6.9%

4.0%

2.8%

4.6%

5.7%

8.4%

2.0%

4.8%

4.0%

9.5%

1.2%

3.1%3.5%

12.3%

1.4%

4.8%


RAE

African American

Latino

Asian

Millennial

96



White working class men were much more likely to register to vote at a government office than Latino or Asian working class men, who were more likely to register by mail.

25.5%

20.9%

10.6%

4.5%

24.8%

14.8%

11.1%

7.7%

24.6%

10.4%

16.8%

7.3%

25.5%

7.8%

17.6%

6.7%







97



African American working class men were the most likely to register through a registration drive, while Latino working class men were the most likely to register online.

3.1%

5.8%

0.6%

6.7%

7.2%

3.7%

1.7%

4.9%

5.7%

7.9%

1.4%

4.2%

4.7%

6.6%

1.5%

4.2%






98



As with working class men, white working class women were much more likely to register to vote at a government office than Latina or Asian working class women(who were both more likely to register by mail).

24.5%

21.0%

10.9%

4.7%

22.7%

14.2%

10.5%

7.6%

24.1%

9.0%

15.3%

7.6%

22.3%

8.5%

20.1%

8.2%







99



African American working class women were most likely to register through a registration drive, while Latina working class women were most likely to register online.

3.4%

4.8%

1.0%

6.8%

8.0%

3.1%

4.3%

5.2%

6.2%

8.6%

3.0%

5.7%

4.8%

5.5%

0.9%

4.4%






100



Voters under 30 were more likely to register at the DMV. African American and Asian young voters were also somewhat more likely to register on a school or campus setting.

29.7%

11.3%10.5%

8.8%

26.9%

8.8%10.4%

12.5%

28.9%

6.6%

14.0%

10.7%

25.7%

3.6%

13.0% 13.2%



White under 30


Latino under 30


101



Voters under 30 were more likely to have registered to vote through online methods than their older counterparts, with the exception of young African American voters, who were more likely to register through a drive.

2.4%

13.3%

1.0%

5.2%

7.0%

6.0%

2.9%

3.7%4.0%

12.9%

2.0%

3.3%

2.2%

15.2%

0.5%

3.0%


White under 30


Latino under 30


102



White voters between 30-49 were the highest users of the DMV for registration. Asian and Latino voters in this age group were likely to register via mail.

33.4%

13.0%12.0%

3.7%

29.8%

11.6% 11.5%

6.3%

29.2%

7.2%

15.3%

6.5%

30.3%

5.5%

17.3%

4.3%



White 30-49


Latino 30-49

Asian 30-49

103



Asian voters in the 30-49 age group were still relatively likely to use online methods for registration.

3.1%

8.6%

0.6%

5.8%6.0%

4.9%

3.4%

4.5%

6.0%

9.8%

2.1%

4.1%4.3%

11.8%

0.7%

3.8%


White 30-49


Latino 30-49

Asian 30-49

104



Older voters (50 & up) of every race were much less likely than their younger counterparts to use the DMV for registration. White older voters were the most likely to use a government office, while older Asian and Latino voters far outpaced their peers in use of mail registration.

20.4%

24.8%

11.5%

3.4%

19.6%18.9%

12.0%

6.3%

18.6%

13.7%

18.7%

6.3%

20.8%

9.6%

21.9%

3.4%



White 50 & over


Latino 50 & over

Asian 50 & over

105



Older African American and Latino voters benefited from registration drives.

3.4%3.0%

0.6%

6.9%

7.5%

2.2% 2.1%

5.2%

6.6%

3.5%

1.9%

6.5%

4.5%

5.3%

1.8%

2.6%


White 50 & over


Latino 50 & over

Asian 50 & over

106



Married voters reported that they are more likely to have registered at a government office. Unmarried women were somewhat less likely to have registered at the DMV. All unmarried individuals were less likely to register at government offices.

26.3%

18.7%

12.2%

4.0%

23.9%

14.9%

12.3%

6.7%

25.8%

18.8%

12.3%

3.8%

26.0%

15.0%

12.0%

6.6%



Married Women

Unmarried Women

Married Men

Unmarried Men

107



Unmarried women were more likely to register online, though this is most common among unmarried men.

3.8%

5.6%

0.7%

6.0%

4.4%

6.8%

2.1%

5.8%

3.5%

5.5%

0.6%

6.1%

4.0%

8.1%

0.9%

5.3%


Married Women

Unmarried Women

Married Men

Unmarried Men

108



Examining the gender/marital status/racial breakout, married white men were disproportionately likely to have registered to vote at a government building and Asian married men were more likely to have registered to vote by mail.

25.7%

20.7%

11.4%

3.3%

27.2%

14.9%

12.5%

5.9%

25.7%

10.4%

17.2%

6.0%

24.3%

8.0%

19.3%

4.4%



Married White Men

Married Black Men

Married Latino Men

Married Asian Men

109



Married Asian men were the most likely to register online or at a registration drive, while white married men were the most likely to register at a polling place.

3.0%

5.3%

0.4%

6.6%

5.8%

4.0%

1.0%

4.7%

5.8%

7.2%

1.3%

4.0%

4.4%

9.0%

1.0%

1.9%


Married White Men

Married Black Men

Married Latino Men

Married Asian Men

110



Similar to married white men, married white women were more likely to register at a government building; and, similar to married Asian men, married Asian women were more likely to register by mail.

26.3%

20.6%

11.4%

3.6%

26.6%

15.7%

11.4%

6.5%

26.4%

9.8%

15.4%

6.0%

25.4%

8.8%

20.9%

3.6%



Married White Women

Married Black Women


Married Asian Women

111



Married Latina women were more likely to register online, married white women were more likely to register at a polling place, and married black women were more likely to register at a registration drive.

3.1%

5.1%

0.5%

6.4%6.8%

4.0%

1.6%

4.2%

6.3%

9.4%

1.8%

4.6%5.0%

7.4%

1.0%

3.6%


Married White Women

Married Black Women


Married Asian Women

112



The DMV was the most common place unmarried men to register, and this was disproportionately true for Asian unmarried men. Unmarried Latino men were also likely to register to vote by mail and unmarried black men were more likely than other subgroups to register to vote at a school.

26.4%

16.8%

11.5%

5.6%

24.2%

13.7%

11.8%

9.1%

25.5%

9.5%

16.5%

8.7%

31.8%

3.7%

13.6%

6.4%



Unmarried White Men

Unmarried Black Men


Unmarried Asian Men

113



Unmarried Asian men registered to vote online more than their counterparts and unmarried black men were the more likely to use a registration drive to register.

3.1%

8.5%

0.6%

5.5%

7.0%

4.4%

1.9%

4.8%5.3%

8.8%

1.3%

4.6%

2.9%

10.8%

1.9%

3.6%


Unmarried White Men

Unmarried Black Men


Unmarried Asian Men

114



Unmarried white women were the most likely among their counterparts to register at a government building, and unmarried Asian women were more likely to register by mail.

24.3%

17.2%

11.8%

5.7%

23.1%

13.4%

10.8%

8.1%

23.8%

8.1%

15.7%

9.6%

21.6%

4.8%

17.3%

9.7%





Unmarried Latina Women


115



Unmarried Asian women registered to vote online more than any other group in this marital status/gender/race breakout, and unmarried black women were more likely than any other group in this breakout to have registered at a registration drive.

3.4%

7.1%

1.1%

6.3%

7.3%

3.8%

4.6% 4.6%

5.4%

8.2%

3.3%

5.7%

2.5%

12.9%

1.1%

4.0%






116



Non-RAE members cited a lack of interest in the election (48.0% compared to 39.6% for RAE members) as an explanation for not registering. This could be because non-RAE members reported lower numbers than the RAE regarding administrative hurdles, suggesting that not registering to vote is a choice for the non-RAE, rather than an inability.

39.6%

4.5%

13.2%

8.4%

48.0%

5.7%

9.2%

4.8%

Not interested in the election ornot involved in politics

My vote would not make adifference

Did not meet registration deadlines Not eligible to vote

RAE

Non-RAE

Reason for Not Registering to Vote

117


Overall, the reasons cited by members of the RAE are associated with administrative hurdles, such as language, knowledge about where to register, or residency requirements.

3.8%

3.1%

4.7%

2.4%

1.8%1.5%

5.5%

0.8%

Did not know where or how toregister

Did not meet residencyrequirements/did not live there

long enough

Permanent illness or disability Difficulty with English

RAE

Non-RAE

118



Millennials were the most likely to cite a lack of interest (41.1%) and were also the most likely to miss registration deadlines (16.2%). Latinos were the most likely to cite eligibility issues (12.2%).

39.6%

4.5%

13.2%

8.4%

37.0%

4.0%

12.5%11.4%

37.0%

4.6%

12.5% 12.2%

36.6%

3.0%

11.5% 10.4%

41.1%

4.4%

16.2%

7.1%

Not interested in the election or notinvolved in politics

My vote would not make a difference Did not meet registration deadlines Not eligible to vote

RAE

African American

Latino

Asian

Millennial

119



African Americans were mostly likely to cite illness or disability as an obstacle to registering (6.2%), while Asian Americans cited difficulty with English (9.8%).

3.8%

3.1%

4.7%

2.4%

3.1%

1.9%

6.2%

1.4%

4.7%

3.4%

3.9%3.6%3.8%

5.4%

1.7%

9.8%

4.0%

3.1% 3.0%

0.8%


Did not meet residencyrequirements/did not live there long

enough


RAE

African American

Latino

Asian

Millennial

120



White working class men were more likely than their counterparts to cite a lack of interest in voting. African American working class men were the most likely to face obstacles around eligibility to vote.

46.4%

5.1%

10.7%

6.5%

36.6%

3.9%

12.9%

14.7%

38.4%

4.5%

11.5%12.8%

40.6%

1.8%

9.6%7.9%







121



White and African American men expressed similar challenges with illness or disability, while Asian working class men were by far the most likely to cite difficulty with English.

2.7%

1.8%

5.4%

0.4%

2.2% 2.1%

5.6%

1.8%

4.3% 3.9%

2.6%

3.2%

4.0%

5.5%

1.3%

9.7%



enough






122



Like their male counterparts, white working class women were the most likely to cite a lack of interest in voting.

47.3%

4.6%

11.6%

3.4%

37.1%

4.2%

11.6%8.6%

35.7%

4.3%

13.1%12.0%

32.8%

3.3%

11.2%9.6%







123



Asian working class women were by far the most likely to cite difficulty with English as a reason for not registering to vote.

2.8%2.0%

5.8%

0.8%

3.8%

1.5%

7.4%

1.2%

5.2%

2.9%

5.4%

4.2%4.7% 4.1%

3.1%

15.3%



enough






124



White voters under the age of 30 were the least likely to report concerns that they were not eligible to vote.

43.3%

4.5%

17.7%

4.4%

38.6%

2.6%

17.8%

9.6%

39.1%

4.4%

16.6%

9.4%

40.1%

2.9%

14.7%

8.4%



White under 30


Latino under 30


125



Young Asian Americans were the most likely to cite a failure to meet residency requirements as an explanation for not registering to vote. Younger Latinos did not know where and how to register.

4.1%

2.9% 2.8%

0.2%

2.3%1.8%

4.2%

1.3%

5.3%

2.4% 2.3%

1.6%

4.1%

6.9%

0.3%

2.0%



enough


White under 30


Latino under 30


126



White middle-aged voters were more likely to report ambivalence about their interest in the election.

45.8%

5.4%

12.3%

6.2%

36.1%

5.8%8.9%

15.4%

34.3%

5.3%

10.9%

14.8%

36.5%

2.9%

13.7%12.2%



White 30-49


Latino 30-49

Asian 30-49

127



Middle-aged Asians reported that concerns with English kept them from registering. Latinos and Asians ages 30-49 also reported not meeting residency requirements as a reason for not voting.

2.0%

2.5%

3.5%

0.4%

4.7%

2.5%

4.7%

1.7%

4.3%

4.6%

3.1%

4.2%

3.6%

5.3%

0.7%

7.2%

Did not know where or how to register Did not meet residencyrequirements/did not live there long

enough


White 30-49


Latino 30-49

Asian 30-49

128



Latinos over the age of 50 cited eligibility issues as their explanation for not registering. Whites over the age of 50 were the most likely to say they were not interested in elections and politics.

47.0%

5.8%7.3%

4.1%

35.6%

3.7%

9.3% 9.4%

37.3%

3.8%

8.2%

13.2%

34.6%

3.0%

7.2%

9.8%



White 50 & over


Latino 50 & over

Asian 50 & over

129



Concerns about English proficiency were very high for Asian voters over the age of 50. Older African American voters were the most likely to cite permanent illness or disability as their reason for not voting.

2.3%

1.3%

8.8%

1.1%

2.4%

1.3%

11.0%

1.3%

4.2%3.5%

7.7%

6.2%

3.8%

4.5%

3.4%

17.4%



enough


White 50 & over


Latino 50 & over

Asian 50 & over

130



Unmarried voters were somewhat less likely to express concern that their vote wouldn’t make a difference. But unmarried men were the most likely to report being ineligible to vote.

42.8%

5.4%

12.0%

6.8%

41.1%

4.2%

12.7%

6.0%

43.1%

5.8%

12.2%

7.3%

41.1%

4.6%

11.8%9.2%



Married Women

Unmarried Women

Married Men

Unmarried Men

131



Unmarried men and women were more than twice as likely as married men and women to report illness or disability as an obstacle to registering to vote.

3.3%2.9%

2.7%3.1%

3.8%

2.4%

7.1%

2.0%

2.9%2.6%

2.2%2.0%

3.1% 2.8%

6.0%

1.1%



enough


Married Women

Unmarried Women

Married Men

Unmarried Men

132



Not being interested in elections or politics was a top reason for not voting among married men of all races. Close to 15% of black and Latino married men cited eligibility issues as a reason for not voting.

47.6%

6.4%

11.0%

4.0%

40.6%

2.8%

15.8% 14.7%

32.8%

6.3%

14.1% 14.6%

37.8%

2.9%

12.6%

8.7%



Married White Men

Married Black Men

Married Latino Men

Married Asian Men

133



Ten percent of married Asian men cited difficulty with English as their reason for not voting.

2.6%

1.3%

2.4%

0.6%

3.0%

1.8%

4.2%

2.4%

3.6%

4.3%

2.0%2.4%

3.2%

7.4%

0.5%

10.0%



enough


Married White Men

Married Black Men

Married Latino Men

Married Asian Men

134



More than any other demographic group, married white women cited that they were not interested in the election or not involved in politics as their reason for not voting.

49.6%

5.2%

12.2%

3.0%

40.8%

5.1%4.9% 3.7%

31.5%

6.1%

12.7%

15.7%

32.0%

4.5%

12.3% 12.4%



Married White Women

Married Black Women


Married Asian Women

135



Similar to married Asian men, married Asian women were much more likely to cite language barriers as a reason for note voting.

1.7% 1.8%

3.1%

0.9%

5.8%

0.9%

5.9%

2.6%

5.5%

4.3%

2.3%

4.0%

5.1% 5.0%

0.5%

13.0%



enough


Married White Women

Married Black Women


Married Asian Women

136



Unmarried black men were the most likely to say that they were not eligible to vote.

43.7%

5.2%

11.7%

7.3%

34.8%

4.2%

12.9%13.8%

41.3%

3.4%

10.7%11.7%

41.1%

1.4%

10.8% 10.7%



Unmarried White Men

Unmarried Black Men


Unmarried Asian Men

137



Unmarried Asian men were more likely to not meet residency requirements and unmarried white men were more likely to not vote due to a permanent illness or disability.

2.8%2.6%

6.9%

0.2%

1.9%2.4%

6.2%

1.4%

4.9%

3.7%3.3% 3.4%

3.9%

5.6%

2.2%

3.8%



enough


Unmarried White Men

Unmarried Black Men


Unmarried Asian Men

138



Not being eligible to vote was a problem for close to 10% of all unmarried minority women.

43.3%

4.7%

12.8%

3.9%

37.0%

3.8%

12.8%

9.5%

39.1%

3.6%

13.2%

8.7%

38.1%

2.2%

9.3% 9.4%







139



Unmarried Asian women, cited difficulty with English as a reason for not voting, while unmarried Latina women were more likely to cite not knowing where or how to register.

3.4%

2.5%

7.3%

0.8%

3.9%

1.7%

7.2%

0.7%

4.7%

2.0%

7.2%

4.5%

2.6%

3.0%

4.5%

10.2%



enough






140



Population Mobility in 2016

Members of the RAE were more than twice as likely to have moved in the past two years (since 2014) than members of the non-RAE.

29.9%

13.6%

RAE Non-RAE

Moved In the Last Two Years (Since 2014)

142


A very large share (42.6%) of the RAE moved since the previous presidential election, highlighting the importance of re-registration.

42.6%

23.2%

RAE Non-RAE

Moved In the Last Four Years (Since 2012)

143


Millennials were the most mobile group out of the RAE, with 41.1% reporting moving in the last two years.

29.9%28.1%

25.2%

21.2%

41.1%



144


More than half of Millennials reported moving in the past four years (54.6%). African Americans were the second most mobile group, with 40.9% moving in the last four years.

42.6%40.9%

39.1%

34.4%

54.6%



145


African American working class men were the most likely to have moved in the last two years.

21.4%

27.8%

24.1%21.6%

White Working Class Men African American Working ClassMen

Latino Working Class Men Asian Working Class Men


146


Only one in three white working class men reported moving in the last four years, while 40% of African American working class men moved.

31.5%

40.0%37.0%

35.6%

White Working Class Men African American Working ClassMen

Latino Working Class Men Asian Working Class Men


147


African American and Latino working class women were the most likely to have moved in the last two years.

20.9%

28.8%

25.4%

16.8%




148


White and Asian working class women were more stationary than African American and Latina working class women voters.

30.7%

42.5%39.3%

30.2%




149


Younger white and African American voters were more likely to have moved than young Latinos and Asian Americans.

43.2% 42.8%

35.9% 35.4%

27.8%

33.9%

27.6% 27.7%

11.1%14.0% 12.1%

8.7%

White African American Latino Asian


Under 30

30 - 49

50 +

150


Voters under the age of 50 reflect the same mobility patterns and were much more likely to have moved in the last four years than voters over the age of 50.

53.7% 55.7%

48.1% 48.4%

43.6%

50.8%46.4%

44.0%

18.8%23.1% 22.2%

19.1%

White African American Latino Asian


Under 30

30 - 49

50 +

151


Unmarried voters were much more likely to have moved in the last two years than married voters.

17.9%

28.6%

17.4%

30.5%



152


Unmarried men had the highest moving rate over a four year period, while married men were the most stationary.

29.6%

40.0%

28.9%

41.3%



153


Among married men, married black men were the most likely to have moved in the last two years.

16.1%

23.3%20.4%

18.9%



154


While married black men were the most likely to have moved in the past two years, married Latino men were the most likely to have moved in the last four years.

27.0%

34.6% 35.3%32.6%



155


Married Latina women were the most likely to have moved in the past two years, and married white women were the least likely to have moved in the last two years.

16.7%

22.1% 22.2%

16.9%



156


Sticking to the trends of married women who moved in the last two years, married Latina women were the most likely to have moved in the last four years, and married white women were the least likely to have moved.

27.7%

33.7%

37.6%

31.4%



157


All unmarried men were more likely to have moved in the last two years than their married male counterparts.

30.6% 30.8%28.6% 29.3%



158


Over 40% of unmarried men, regardless of race, moved in the last four years.

40.8%43.5%

40.4% 41.2%



159


Unmarried black women were the most likely to have moved in the last two years.

27.9%30.8%

28.5%

24.1%



160


The same trend is true for moving in the last four years – unmarried black women were the most likely to have moved.

38.1%

44.7%42.2%

35.6%



161


The RAE and the Economy

Over 50% of Latinos are earning less than $35,000 per year, while over 70% of Asian Americans are earning more than $35,000 per year.

27.1%

27.3%

51.8%

42.6%

33.0%

72.9%

72.7%

48.2%

57.4%

70.0%

White

Asian

Latino

African American

All Adults

<$35K >$35K

Annual Income – Full-Time Employed

163This data is among all adults (18+), not just VEP.Source: CPS March 2016

Average median income for unmarried women is $35K, compared to $45K among all adults and $40K among all women. Unmarried women are disproportionately at the lower end of income brackets.

46.6%

39.7%

33.0%

53.4%

60.3%

67.0%

Unmarried Women

All Women

All Adults

<$35K >$35K

Annual Income – Full-Time Employed


In 2016, unmarried women made nominally more at $35,360 but just 59 cents on the dollar relative to married men. By way of contrast, income among married women has increased from $41,600 in 2015 (74 cents on the dollar compared to married men) to $45,000, which now represents 75 cents on the dollar.

165

55%

65%

75%

2014 2015 2016

Personal Earnings Ratio among Full Time Workers by Marital Status, 2014-2016

Unmarried Women's Annual Earnings as a Percent of Married Men's

Married Women's Annual Earnings as a Percent of Married Men's

Women Men

Unmarried Married Unmarried Married

Median Annual Income $35,360 $45,000 $40,000 $60,000

Comparative Personal Earnings 59¢ 75¢ 67¢ $1.00

This data is among all adults (18+), not just VEP.Source: CPS March 2016

$50,000

$40,000$43,000

$35,000

$30,000

$45,000

Men Women White Women African AmericanWomen

Latina Women Asian Women

$1.00

$0.80$0.86

$0.70

Personal Earnings Among Full Time Workers – Median Income

Women make eighty cents for every dollar a man makes. White women make slightly more than this amount, while African American women and Latinas make less. Asian women come the closest to men’s personal earnings, falling just four cents short.

$0.60

$0.96


The March 2016 data revealed that 20.7% of African Americas (18+) live below the poverty line. In comparison, only 8.7% of Asian Americans live in poverty, with Millennials and Latinos falling in between.

20.7%

15.2%

8.7%

14.4%

African American Latino Asian Millennial

Live in Poverty


Unmarried women are four times more likely to live in poverty than a married men.

5.0%

20.0%

4.6%

14.4%

Married women Unmarried women Married men Unmarried men

Live in Poverty


Millennials and African Americans have the lowest levels of home ownership, with large portions of these demographic groups renting rather than purchasing their homes. Whites heavily outpace every other racial group in home ownership.

76.0%

49.3%55.5%

69.8%

52.7%

White African American Latino Asian Millennial

Home Ownership


Married men and women are far more likely to own a home than than unmarried men and women.

82.2%

55.7%

82.3%

56.9%


Home Ownership


Latinos, Asians, and Millennials are less likely than whites and African Americans to have a pension plan provided by their employer.

51.1% 50.7%

42.3%45.4% 44.5%

White African American Latino Asian Millennial

171

Pension Plan Provided by Employer – Year-Round Employees


Unmarried men are the least likely to have a pension plan provided by their employer, while both married men and married women are over 50% likely to have a pension plan through their employer.

54.0%

47.4%51.7%

43.9%

Married women Unmarried women Married men Unmarried men

172

Pension Plan Provided by Employer – Year-Round Employees


Celinda [email protected]@clake

Joshua [email protected]@jeudc

Caroline [email protected]@cbye11

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NYLakeResearch.com202.776.9066

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