A data assimilation approach to quantify uncertainty for estimates of biomass stocks and

changes in Amazon forests

Paul DuffyMichael KellerDoug Morton

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Outline

• Consider the generation of data products based on inventory and lidar data

• Initial results for the combination of information from these data products

• Discuss next steps for additional uncertainty quantification

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Approach

• Generate low level Aboveground Carbon Density (Mg C ha-1) data products based on both inventory and lidar data

• Implement a statistical data assimilation algorithm to generate spatially explicit estimates of higher order data products with uncertainty

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Approach

• Use a Hierarchical modeling frame work– Data models (lidar and inventory)– Process models (Land Use, Topography)– Parameter models (measurement error, spatial

range, etc.)

Inventory Data

• 22 transects of 20x500m were measured

• Biomass for each tree was estimated

• E.g. 0.051*specific density*DBH^2*Total height (Chave 2005)

Lidar Data

The variation within the corresponding CHM

pixel is depicted by this distribution

Lidar P100 Returns Heights with Transects

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Data Model: Measurement Error

• Lidar and inventory are considered as distinct and uncertain measurements of the unobservable ACD

• Specific sources of uncertainty can be due to:– Sampling error, allometry models– Lidar data acquisition strategy– Spatial resolution (25m2, 50m2, etc.)

Lidar Within Pixel SD for Returns Heights

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Process Model Development

• At spatial scales corresponding to the size of the domain for our analysis, land use is the strongest driver

• Currently, the deterministic component of our process model is just a mean term

• We will use satellite imagery to build land cover explanatory variables for potential use in the process model

Lidar Variograms for P100 Returns Heights

0 50 100 150 200

0400

800

10m

Distance

Semi-Variance

0 50 100 150 200

0400

800

25m

Distance

Semi-Variance

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Assimilation for High–Level Data Products

• Preliminary implementation of assimilation algorithms

• Quantitative measures of uncertainty associated with high-level data products can be the endpoint for characterization

Assimilation for a test Subregion

Mean of Assimilated ACD Data Product (Mg C ha-1)

Standard Deviation of Assimilated ACD Data Product (Mg C ha-1)

Estimated Standard Deviation of Assimilated Data Product

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Limitations

• Current approach utilizes uncertainty reducing assumptions

– Lidar component regression of Aboveground Carbon Density ~ height

– Inventory component regression of Aboveground biomass ~ height, dbh, wsd

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Next Steps

• Account for uncertainty in the parameters in the allometric models

• Use analyses of LandSat time series to characterize disturbance

• Expand from the test region to the full Municipality of Paragominas

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Acknowledgement

• Data were acquired by the Sustainable Landscapes Brazil project supported by the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA), the US Forest Service, and USAID, and the US Department of State.