a crystalline silicon solar cell vision
TRANSCRIPT
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A Crystalline SiliconSolar Cell Vision
Richard M. SwansonSunPower Corporation
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Questions I often hear from the
general publicWhy have solar cells never become asubstantial source of energy?
Too bad solar never made it, it seemedso promising back in the 1970s.When will the big breakthrough come that
will make solar cells practical?
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Answers and Fun FactsSolar cell manufacturing is a vital and rapidlygrowing industry, enjoying over 30% annualgrowth over the last 10 years.
In 2002, more square inches of silicon was usedby the solar cell industry than the IC industry.There will be no big breakthrough that impacts theindustry for at least 10 years, and probably 20years.Instead, the existing technologies will evolve towhere they will be cost effective in mostdistributed applications in 10 years, and will becompetitive with fossil fuel generation in 20 years.
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Solar Cell Rules of Thumb
The annual production of solar modulesincreases ten-fold every decade
The price of solar cell modules decreasesby half every decade
2002: $3.00/W
2012: $1.50/W2022: $0.75/W
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World Solar Module Production 1980-2000 (MW)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Off-grid On-grid Consumer indoor
Source: Solarbuzz Inc.
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1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000
Cumulative Production (MW)
M o
d u
l e P r i c e
( 2 0 0 2 $ )
Maycock
Strategies
81% Progress Ratio
2002$3/W
1979$30/W
S o lar Ce ll P rice Exhibits a Classic
Experience Cu r ve Be ha vior
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Distribution of Progress Ratios22 Field Studies ( Dutton and Thomas
1984)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
50 60 70 80 90 100
Progress Ratio
F r e q u e n c y Note: These progress
ratios are firm level (notindustry wide) studies.
PV Progress Ratio
Taken from Robert Margolis Ph D
Thesis, 2002
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Factors Driving Past
Cost ReductionPoly silicon price: $300/kg $30/kgWire saws: now < $0.25/W
Larger wafers: 2 6Thinner wafers: 15 mil 8 milImproved efficiency: 10% 16%
Volume manufacturing: 1MW 100MWIncreased automation: none someImproved manufacturing processes
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1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Cumulative Production (MW)
M o d u
l e P r i c e
( $ / W ) ( $ 2 0 0 2 )
Historical
Projected1980
$21.83/W
1985$11.20/W 1990
$6.07/W 1995$4.90/W
2000$3.89/W 2005
$2.70/W2010
$1.82/W2013
$1.44/W
Experience Cu r ves Can Be Used to
ProjectInto the Fu ture
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The Silicon Roadmap
Where Will Solar Cells Go in theFuture?
Developed at the2002 NR EL Silicon Workshop
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Poly-Silicon Cost Roadmap
10
15
20
25
30
35
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Year
P o l y C o s t ( $ / k g )
Mc-Si
CZ-Si
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Wafer Thickness Roadmap
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Year
W a f e r
T h i c k n e s s
( u m )
Mc-Si
CZ-Si
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Cell Efficiency Roadmap
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Year
E f f i c i e n c y ( % )
Mc-Si
CZ-Si
Eff ici en c y has huge c ost leverage
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Module Cost Roadmap
0 .00
0 . 0
1 .00
1 . 0
2 .00
2 . 0
3 .00
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Year
M o
d u
l e C o s t
( $ / W )
Mc i
i
2012
$1 .10 /W
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1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Cumulative Production (MW)
Historical
Projected1980$21.83/W
1985$11.20/W 1990
$6.07/W 1995$4.90/W
2000$3.89/W 2005
$2.70/W2010
$1.82/W2013$1.44/W
Silicon R o a dmap C o s t
Silicon R o a dmap Predic t s 2 0 1 3Go a l W ill Be Me t!
Co s t-Eff ec t ive Distribu te d P owe r in 2 0 1 2
Distribu te d Generat ionVa lue
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Factors Driving Future
Cost ReductionPoly silicon price: $300/kg $30/kgWire saws: now < $0.25/W
Larger wafers: 2 6Thinner wafers: 8 mil 2 milImproved efficiency: 16% 22%Volume manufacturing: 100MW 1000MWIncreased automation: some lotsContinued improvement in manufacturingprocesses
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Extending Projection to 2013
Predicts Cost-effective Bulk Power
0 1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000 1 000 000
Cumulative Production (MW)
M o d u l e P r i c e
( $ / W ) ( $ 2 0 0 2 )
Historic l
Projected
130 1
1 021 3
110
20003
20230
20131 Distri uted
ener tionlue
Bulkener tion
lue
32
Current ener tion C cit
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Early Projections Were
Not Too Good
Cumula t uc t ( )
u l e P r i c e
(
) (
)
istorical
Projected
OE
Projection
W
W
W
W
a
a
W
W
W istri tedGeneration
al e
B l
Generational e
a
rrent Generation a acity
Big Brea thro gh
ge Growth
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Renewable energy will capture a meaningful share of theGlobal Energy Market in the next 25 years.
The Renewable Energy Revolution
K ey drivers will be:
Falling costs for renewable energyDeclining fossil fuelproductionIncreasing energy
demand worldwideEnvironmental concerns
S ource: C.J.Campbell World Oil Resources Dec 2000
Oil industry consensus:production is will peak between 2004 and 2010
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The Future of RenewablesProjected World Energy Production
0
100
200
300
a O G a s
N c e a r
B
m a s s
H y r
S a r
G e
19992020
20402060
E x a
j
e s
S ource: Royal DutchS hell Group
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$23 Billion in Subsidies Yields Inexhaustible,Pollution-Free Source of Energy !Subsidize the difference in cost over $3/W
22
3
3
2 2 2 2 Year
A n n u a
l S u
b s i d
y ( $
2 gro th3 gro th
gro th
$23 B
$2 B
$2 B
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Thank You Austin Clean Energy Initiative
and
Best of Luck Making Austin aCenter of Clean Energy