a comprehensive assessment ofa comprehensive assessment of india’s energy security national...
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A comprehensive assessment of India’s energy security
National Conference on Energy and Environment
University of Pune
February 20 - 22, 2014
Ashok Sreenivas
Prayas (Energy Group), Pune www.prayaspune.org/peg
About Prayas …
Activities: • Research & intervention (regulatory, policy) • Civil Society training, awareness, and support
www.prayaspune.org/peg
Energy (Policy,
Planning & Governance)
Electricity Generation and Supply
Rural Energy
Renewable Energy
Coal, Natural
Gas Regulation
Energy security, Climate Change
Energy Efficiency
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Energy security: commonly stated concerns
• Increasing imports and trade deficits
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• Environmental clearance hurdles a major bottleneck
• Competitive pricing and incentives a necessity for investments
An alternative view
• Stated concerns may be genuine – but are they the only concerns or most important concerns?
• Is energy security merely the security of supply to the nation?
• What about people’s access to safe, affordable, reliable energy? – And the role it plays in supporting productive activities?
• Producing and distributing energy has an impact on environment and people’s lives – What about those impacts?
• How efficiently are we using energy? Etc.
• Holistic assessment of India’s energy security must factor in these considerations also
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Comprehensive assessment of energy security • Three dimensions proposed
– Joint work with Rakesh Iyer – Work in progress
• Some methodology changes likely • But unlikely to affect major conclusions
• Supply security dimension
– Reliable access to energy for the country
• Macro-economic dimension – Efficiency and financial burden of providing energy
• Socio-environmental dimension – How energy helps make and improve people’s lives and – How energy hurts people’s lives
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Methodology of assessment
• Hierarchical structure – Each dimension has sub-dimensions, sub-sub-dimensions etc.
and finally indicators – More than 30 indicators in all
• Examples – Supply security dimension
• Net energy import dependence, import diversity, project delays and domestic resource sustainability
– Macro-economic dimension • Energy intensity, share of energy imports in trade deficit, subsidy
burden
– Socio-environmental dimension • Access to modern energy, Use of modern energy in farm and non-
farm enterprises, air and water pollution near energy projects, compensation and R&R of project affected households
• Indicators have values – Different indicator values will have different units – Percentage, µg / m3, tCO2e / capita etc.
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Scoring based on indicator values
• Data from various sources – Primary and secondary official data sources such as CEA, MoSPI etc. – International data sources such as World Bank, Eurostat – Other surveys such as DLHS – Other literature and papers (compensatory R&R)
• Indicator values ‘normalized’
– Scored on a scale of 0 – 100
• Indicator scores combined using weighted sums – Currently equal weights in most cases – for simplicity – Few exceptions based on our value judgment
• Compute scores for each dimension
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India’s energy security in 2011-12
Supply Security dimension: 44
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India’s energy security in 2011-12 (contd..)
Macro-economic dimension: 66
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India’s energy security in 2011-12 (contd..)
Socio-environmental dimension: 35
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India’s energy security in 2011-12 (contd..)
Positive socio-environmental aspects: 21
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India’s energy security in 2011-12 (contd..)
Negative socio-environmental aspects: 43
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India’s energy security in 2011-12 (contd..)
Impact of energy projects on people: 42
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Findings
• Data availability problem for objective assessment – No data on impact of energy projects on water resources,
agriculture, morbidity etc. – Little data on compensation, R&R – Difficult to get pollution data
• Weakest aspect is socio-environmental dimension – Available data suggests dismal performance on compensatory
R&R: score of merely 12 – Extremely poor access to clean, modern energy sources
• 40 crore lack access to electricity • 80 crore lack access to clean fuels for cooking
– Insufficient uptake of modern energy in enterprises and communities
– Poor environmental management as seen in poor scores on water/air pollution
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Findings …
• Reaffirms some mainstream concerns – Clearance and other governance challenges reflected in
poor scores for target achievement and project delays
– Trade deficit score is poor though not import exposure
• Deeper look at India’s “strengths” – Many of the good scores follow from poor access and use!
• Low per-capita GHG emissions, low import exposure, low primary energy intensity
– Human development levels near energy projects scores high because of displacement and influx of skilled people
– Scores high on subsidies because of methodology used
– So, even strengths may not be so positive!
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Conclusions • Most urgent needs
– Provide access to reliable, affordable modern energy for all
– Improve environmental management and oversight of energy projects
– Usher in better compensation and R&R regime
• Some commonly raised concerns also valid
– Mounting trade deficit
– Bureaucratic and governance delays
– Inefficiencies in entire value chain
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