a complete corporate valuation for a simple company
DESCRIPTION
A Complete Corporate Valuation for a Simple Company. Three types of value. Book value: the company’s historical value as shown on its financial statements. Market value : the current price at which an asset can be bought or sold. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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A Complete Corporate Valuation for a Simple
Company
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Three types of value
• Book value: the company’s historical value as shown on its financial statements.
• Market value: the current price at which an asset can be bought or sold.
• Intrinsic value: estimate of the value an individual buyer places on an asset.
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Objective:
• Objective is to provide a sound basis for estimating the intrinsic value of a stock.
• This intrinsic value is also called its fundamental value.
• The process is known as fundamental valuation—Warren Buffet is very successful at identifying a company’s fundamental value!
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The three basic concepts of valuation
• Investors can only spend cash so "Cash is good and more cash is better."
• Cash today is worth more than cash tomorrow.• Risky cash flows are worth less than safe cash flows.• These three imply the value of a company depends
on the size, timing, and riskiness of its cash flows.
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Steps in the corporate valuation
• Determine weighted average cost of capital• Estimate expected future free cash flows---cash
flows available to all investors—called free cash flows (FCFs).
• Discount free cash flows at the average rate of return required by all investors
• Find value of company
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Estimating the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
• Company has two types of investors– Debtholders– Stockholders
• Each type of investor expects to receive a return for their investment
• The return an investor receives is a “cost of capital” from company’s viewpoint.
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Cost of Debt
• MPR’s cost of debt: rD = 9%.
• But MPR can deduct interest, so cost to MPR is after-tax rate on debt.
• If tax rate is 40%, then after-tax cost of debt is:– After-tax rD = 9%(1-0.4) = 5.4%.
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Cost of Equity
• Cost of equity, rs, is higher than cost of debt
because stock is riskier.– MPR: rs = 12%
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Weighted Average Cost of Capital
• WACC is average of costs to all investors, weighted by the target percent of firm that is financed by each type.
• For MPR, target percent financed by equity:– wS = 70%
• For MPR, target percent financed by debt:– wD = 30%
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WACC (Continued)
WACC = wD rD (1-T) + wS rS
= 0.3(9%)(1 - 0.4) + 0.7(12%)
= 10.02%
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Free Cash Flow (FCF)
• FCF is the amount of cash available from operations for distribution to all investors (including stockholders and debtholders) after making the necessary investments to support operations.
• A company’s value depends upon the amount of FCF it can generate.
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Calculating FCF
• FCF = net operating profit after taxes minus investment in operating capital
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Financial Statements
• Balance sheet– Assets (all of MPR’s assets are used in operations)
• Operating assets– Operating current assets– Property, plant, and equipment (PPE)
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Operating Current Assets
• Operating current assets are the CA needed to support operations.– Op CA include: cash, inventory, receivables.– Op CA exclude: short-term investments, because
these are not a part of operations.
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Operating Current Liabilities
• Operating current liabilities are the CL resulting as a normal part of operations.– Op CL include: accounts payable and accruals.– Op CA exclude: notes payable, because this is a
source of financing, not a part of operations.
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Balance Sheet: Assets2012 2013 2014
Op. CA 162,000.0 168,000.0 176,400.0 Total CA 162,000.0 168,000.0 176,400.0Net PPE 199,000.0 210,042.0 220,500.0Tot. Assets 361,000.0 378,042.0 396,900.0
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Balance Sheet: Claims2012 2013 2014
Op. CL 57,911.5 62,999.7 66,150.0 Total CL 57,911.5 62,999.7 66,150.0L-T Debt 136,253.0 143,061.0 150,223.0 Total Liab. 194,164.5 206,060.7 216,373.0Equity 166,835.5 171,981.3 180,527.0 TL & Eq. 361,000.0 378,042.0 396,900.0
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Income Statement2012 2013 2014
Sales 400,000.0 420,000.0 441,000.0Costs 344,000.0 361,994.2 374,881.6 Op. prof. 56,000.0 58,005.8 66,118.4Interest 11,678.7 12,262.8 12,875.5 EBT 44,321.3 45,743.0 53,242.9Taxes (40%) 17,728.4 18,297.2 21,297.2 NI 26,592.7 27,445.8 31,945.7Dividends 21,200.0 22,300.0 23,400.0Add. RE 5,392.7 5,145.8 8,545.7
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NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes)
• NOPAT is the amount of after-tax profit generated by operations.
• NOPAT is the amount of net income, or earnings, that a company with no debt or interest-income would have.
NOPAT = (Operating profit) (1-T)= EBIT (1-T)
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Calculating NOPAT
NOPAT = (Operating profit) (1-T)= EBIT (1-T)
NOPAT14 = 66.1184 (1-0.4) = 39.67104
million.
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Calculating Operating Capital
• Operating capital (also called total operating capital, or just capital) is the amount of assets required to support the company’s operations, less the liabilities that arise from those operations. – The short-term component is net operating
working capital (NOWC). – The long-term component is factories, land,
equipment.
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Net Operating Working Capital
NOWC = Operating current assets – Operating current liabilities
This is the net amount tied up in the “things” needed to run the company on a day-to-day basis.
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Net Operating Working Capital
NOWC = Operating CA – Operating CL
NOWC14 = $176.4 – $66.15
= $110.25 million
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Operating Capital
• Operating capital = – Net operating working capital (NOWC)
plus– Long-term capital, such as factories, land,
equipment.
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Operating Capital = NOWC + LT Op. Capital
Capital14 = $110.25 + $220.50
= $330.75 million
This means in 2014 MPR had $330.75 million tied up in capital needed to support its operations. Investors supplied this money. It isn’t available for distribution.
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Investment in operating capital
• Operating capital in 2013 was $315.0423 million
• Operating capital in 2014 was $330.75 million• MPR had to make a net investment of $330.75
– $315.0423 = $15.7077 million in operating capital in 2014.
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Calculating FCF
FCF = NOPAT – Investment in operating capital
FCF14 = $39.67104 – (330.75 – 315.0423)
= $39.67104 – $15.7077= $23.96334 million
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There are five ways for a company to use FCF
1. Pay interest on debt.2. Pay back principal on debt.3. Pay dividends.4. Buy back stock.5. Buy nonoperating assets (e.g., marketable
securities, investments in other companies, etc.)
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ReinvestmentBucket
Free Cash FlowBucket
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How Did MPR use its FCF?• Paid dividends: $23.4 million• Paid after-tax interest of: $12,875.5 (1-0.4) = $7.7253
million• For a total of $31.1253 million! This is $7.162 million
more than the $23.9 million FCF available! Where did it come from?
• MPR increased its borrowing by $150.223 – $143.061) = $7.162 million to make up the difference.
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Corporate Valuation
• Forecast financial statements and use them to project FCF.
• Discount the FCFs at the WACC
This gives the value of operations
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Value of Operations:
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1 1tt
tOp
WACC
FCFV
Of course, this requires projecting free cash flows out forever.
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Constant growth
• If free cash flows are expected to grow at a constant rate of 5%, then this is easy:
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019FCF 23.963 25.161 26.419 27.740 29.127 30.584
There is an easy formula for the present value of free cash flows that grow forever at a constant rate…
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Constant Growth Formula
• The summation can be replaced by a single formula:
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gWACC
)g1(FCF
gWACC
FCFV
0
1Op
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The value of operations
million 225.501$
05.01002.0
)05.01(96334.23$
)1(0
Op
Op
V
gWACC
gFCFV
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Value of Equity• Sources of Corporate Value
– Value of operations = $501.225 million– Value of non-operating assets = $0 (in this case)
• Claims on Corporate Value– Value of Debt = $150.223 million
• Value of Equity = ? • Value of Equity = $501.225 - $150.223 =
$351.002 million, or just $351 million.
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Value of EquityPrice per share
= Equity / # of shares= $351 million / 10 million shares= $35.10 per share
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A picture of the breakdown of MPR’s value
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Equity
Debt
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Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
ROIC can be used to evaluate MPR’s performance:
ROIC = NOPAT / Total operating capital in place at the beginning of the year
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ROIC calculation
ROIC14 = NOPAT14 / Capital13
ROIC14 = 39.67104 / 315.0423 = 12.6%.
This is a good ROIC because it is greater than the return that investors require, the WACC, which is 10.02%. So MPR added value during 2014.
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Economic Value Added (EVATM) (also called Economic Profit)
• EVA is another key measure of operating performance.
• EVA is trademarked by Stern Stewart, Inc.• It measures the amount of profit the company
earned, over and above the amount of profit that investors required.
• EP = NOPATt – WACC(Capitalt-1)
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Calculating EVA
EVA = NOPAT- (WACC)(Begng. Capital)
EVA14 = NOPAT14 – (0.1002)(Capital13)
EVA14 = $39.67104 – (0.1002)(315.0423)
= $39.67104 – $31.56742
= $8.1038 million
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Economic profit…
This shows that in 2014 MPR earned about $8 million more than its investors required.
Another way to calculate EP is
EPt = (ROIC – WACC)Capitalt-1
= (0.125923 – 0.1002)$315.0423
= $8.1038 million
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Intuition behind EP
If the ROIC – WACC spread is positive, then the firm is generating more than enough “profit,” and is increasing value. But, if the ROIC – WACC spread is negative, then the firm is destroying value, in the sense that investors would be better off taking their money and investing it elsewhere.
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Applications of the corporate valuation model
• Mergers and acquisitions– Evaluate how much a target is worth under various
operating scenarios
• Value-based management– Make decisions with the goal of increasing the company’s
value
• Fundamental investing– Identify firms that are worth more than the current stock
price
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