a challenge for society international perspectives and ... · a challenge for society international...

A Challenge for Society

International Perspectives and Energy Futures

Pathways to Sustainable

D.H. Marks – MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment October 2007 1

Pathways to Sustainable Energy Futures

David H. MarksGoulder Family Professor of Engineering Systems and

Civil and Environmental EngineeringMIT

Preamble

• The Argument about the existance of Climate Change is about over. It has shifted to what the damages will be, what to do about it, who gets hurt, and how fast to move.


move.

• The Pathways to a Sustainable Energy Future rest on but are not totally driven by Climate Change however. We will need to think about Social Impacts, Energy Security and Environmental Impacts in evolving plans for the future.

What Do We Know about Climate Change?

- CO2 concentration is rising due to fossil fuel use

- The global temperature is increasing - other indicators of climate change

- There is a plausible causal connection - but the scientific case is not overwhelming (natural variability, forcings)


- Impacts of higher CO2 quite uncertain- ~ 2X pre-industrial is a widely discussed stabilization target (550 ppm)

- Reached by 2050 under BAU

- Precautionary action is warranted- What could the world do?

- Source Koonin BP

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?

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why worry?

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UN World Energy Assessment Report, 2000

Nate Lewis (Caltech) webpage


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cost

because...

environment

security

gas (2.70)

coal (2.96)

biomass (1.21)

nuclear (0.83)

hydro (0.29)

renewable (0.29)

oil (4.52)

12.8 TW

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Have We Had It Too Easy?

• What Direction Has Our/ShouldOur Energy Infrastructures be Headed?


The Public has Hidden Its Head in the Sand on Energy Issues

• Frequently Asked Questions from the Public

»When will the Oil Age end?

A Better Question Might be When will the Fossil Age End?

»Why not do a Project Apollo Approach on Renewables?


Renewables?

»Isn’t Hydrogen the Answer?

•Depends on What the Question is.

»Why isn’t there more Conservation?

•What Do You Drive? How Big is your House?

»Of Course I know Where My Electricity Comes From! From the Wall Plug.

Will we run out of oil?

•Geologist’s view (Hubbert and all that)

»Fossil resources are finite

»Bigger fields are discovered and produced first

»Fields come on rapidly and then decline slowly

»Production peaks when ½ the resource has been consumed

6,000,000

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1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030


resource has been consumed

»Non-OPEC within 20 years? OPEC within 30 years?

•Economist’s view»Price increases as demand exceeds supply

»High prices will encourage discovery and production of more expensive resources

»At some price, fuel substitution will be attractive

•Both are probably right •Koonin BP

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Substantial Global Fossil Resources

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Hydrocarbon Fungibility

Primary Energy Source

Syngas Step Conversion Technology Products

Fischer Tropsch

(FT)

Upgrading

Lubes

Naphtha

DieselSyngas to Liquids (GTL) Process

Natural Gas


Syngas(CO + H2)

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Syngas to Chemicals Technologies

Methanol

Acetic Acid

Others (e.g. Triptane, DME, etc)

Coal

Biomass

Hydrogen

Extra

Heavy Oil

Hydrogen economy

Sustainable energy

markets

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Hydrogen economy

Sustainable energy

markets


economy

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Hydrogen economy

Sustainable energy

markets


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Pathways to more sustainable energy


hydrocarbons ….. oxygenates

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hydrocarbon fuels …..bio-fuels


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solar, wind, ...

market sharetim

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fossilbiomass

solar, wind, ...

market sharetim

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hydrocarbon fuels …..bio-fuels

Renewables: A Small but Growing Share of Primary Energy

Total primary energy: 410 EJ/year Renewables: 4 EJ/year

Gas

Hydro

Nuclear

WindSolar

PV

Solar

thermal


Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Renewables

Bio-

mass

BiofuelsGeothermal

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…and dislocation of supply & demand

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Reaching CO2 Goals


What Might We Do?


Efficiency and Conservation

• Increase the rate of decrease in energy use per unit of GDP

• Option 1 Increase Fuel Economy

› 2 Billion Cars from 30 to 60 miles per gallon

• Option 2 Reduce per car miles per year

»Drive 5000 miles instead of 10000 miles per year


»Drive 5000 miles instead of 10000 miles per year

• Option 3 More Efficient Buildings

»Cut energy use in future buildings by 25%

• Option 4 Improve power plant efficiency

»Produce twice today's coal power output at 60% instead of 40%

Wedge Options Fuels

• Option 5 Gas-Base load power for

Coal-Base load power

•Replace 1400 GW 50% efficient coal

to gas

• Option 6 Capture CO2 at Coal- and Gas-


• Option 6 Capture CO2 at Coal- and Gas-Base Load Plants

• Option 7 Capture CO2 at Hydrogen Plants

• Option 8 Geological Storage- Create 3500 Sleipners

Wedge Options

• Option 9 Nuclear Power for Coal

• Option 10 Wind Power for Coal

• Option 11 PV Power for Coal Power

• Option 12 Wind Hydrogen in fuel cell

car for gasoline in hybrid car


car for gasoline in hybrid car

• Option 13 Biomass for fossil fuel

• Option 14 Reduce deforestation

plus reforestation and new plantations

• Option 15 Conservation tillage

In Conclusion

• Must Understand the importance of Robust Short Term Steps now and encourage them

• Need for a Portfolio Approach

• Fossil around for a long time but in what forms? Stationary reduction first?

• Importance of Sequestration, Conservation,


• Importance of Sequestration, Conservation, Renewables

• Energy Security Issues will help focus the debate

• Need for New Partnerships - the university as honest broker

• The next generation of leaders and institutions are critical - MIT will work with others around the world

a challenge for society international perspectives and ... · a challenge for society international...

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