a a y - voice of san diego · february 2013 2 san diego visitor industry update—source: visitor...

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February 2013 FEBRUARY 2013 TOURISM INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE REPORT SAN DIEGO TOURISM AUTHORITY Keeping the local hospitality and tourism industry informed with the latest local, state and naonal market trends and news. IN THIS EDITION San Diego Industry Performance Hotel Performance TOT and TMD Collecons New Lodging Supply Travel Forecast SDCC Aendance Compeve Markets Transient vs. Group Market Share State and Naonal California Trends & Outlook Naonal Trends & Outlook Industry Research and News MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS San Diego Despite a slowdown in December, the visitor industry finished the year strong with a record 32.3 million visitors and total spending of just under $8 billion. This repre- sented a 3.6 percent increase in visitor volume and a 6.6 percent increase in visitor spending. Overnight visitor volume increased 2.4 percent for the year to a record 16.1 million overnight visitors. Visitors with hotel accommodaons led the growth at 5.2 per- cent, to a record 8.7 million visitors. However, overnight in-home guest volume again struggled, experiencing 8 months of declines in 2012 and ending the year down 1.1 percent. Day visitaon also had a good year, growing 4.8 percent to reach 16.1 million. This was in line with Mexican day visitor volume, which grew 6.5 percent. Combined gate aendance at major aracons ended the year with a 3.8 percent increase to more than 14.3 million people, while the arts and museums aendance increased 8.1 percent. San Diego air passenger arrival volume had its ups and downs in 2012 but ended the year up 1.9 percent over 2011. County hotels wrapped the year filling 70.7 percent of its available rooms in 2012, up 2.9 percent. ADR increased 4 percent to finish the year at $130.02. The gains in occupancy and ADR led to a respectable 7.4 percent increase in RevPAR to end the year at $92.93. March provided the high and December the low with regards to the growth rates for occupancy and RevPAR. All TMD sub-regions ended the year up as well. RevPAR growth ranged from 3.4 percent to 10.1 percent, with UTC and La Jolla Coastal areas achieving the highest growth, while Pt. Loma/Airport area achieved the least at 3.4 percent. California / United States According to Visit California, Travel in California connues to perform well, with hotel room demand at a record high and average room rates recovering to near pre-recession levels. According to Tourism Economics, regional economies in the US will evolve at differ- ent paces during 2013. The main regional force behind the economy in 2013 will be the western US, where the majority of San Diego’s key source markets are situated. Consumer confidence is slowly on the mend. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in September, improved again in October. Contact: Miriam Perkins Planning and Research, SDTA 619-557-2874 [email protected] www.sandiego/research

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Page 1: A A Y - Voice of San Diego · February 2013 2 SAN DIEGO VISITOR INDUSTRY UPDATE—SOURCE: VISITOR ACTIVITY MODEL/VISITOR PROFILE STUDY, CIC RESEARCH, INC. The San Diego visitor industry

February 2013

FEBRUARY 2013 TOURISM INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE REPORT

SAN DIEGO TOURISM AUTHORITY

Keeping the local hospitality and tourism industry informed with the latest local, state and national market trends and news.

IN THIS EDITION San Diego Industry Performance Hotel Performance TOT and TMD Collections New Lodging Supply Travel Forecast SDCC Attendance Competitive Markets Transient vs. Group Market Share State and National California Trends & Outlook National Trends & Outlook Industry Research and News

MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS San Diego

Despite a slowdown in December, the visitor industry finished the year strong with a record 32.3 million visitors and total spending of just under $8 billion. This repre-sented a 3.6 percent increase in visitor volume and a 6.6 percent increase in visitor spending.

Overnight visitor volume increased 2.4 percent for the year to a record 16.1 million overnight visitors. Visitors with hotel accommodations led the growth at 5.2 per-cent, to a record 8.7 million visitors. However, overnight in-home guest volume again struggled, experiencing 8 months of declines in 2012 and ending the year down 1.1 percent.

Day visitation also had a good year, growing 4.8 percent to reach 16.1 million. This was in line with Mexican day visitor volume, which grew 6.5 percent. Combined gate attendance at major attractions ended the year with a 3.8 percent increase to more than 14.3 million people, while the arts and museums attendance increased 8.1 percent.

San Diego air passenger arrival volume had its ups and downs in 2012 but ended the year up 1.9 percent over 2011.

County hotels wrapped the year filling 70.7 percent of its available rooms in 2012, up 2.9 percent. ADR increased 4 percent to finish the year at $130.02. The gains in occupancy and ADR led to a respectable 7.4 percent increase in RevPAR to end the year at $92.93. March provided the high and December the low with regards to the growth rates for occupancy and RevPAR.

All TMD sub-regions ended the year up as well. RevPAR growth ranged from 3.4 percent to 10.1 percent, with UTC and La Jolla Coastal areas achieving the highest growth, while Pt. Loma/Airport area achieved the least at 3.4 percent.

California / United States

According to Visit California, Travel in California continues to perform well, with hotel room demand at a record high and average room rates recovering to near pre-recession levels.

According to Tourism Economics, regional economies in the US will evolve at differ-ent paces during 2013. The main regional force behind the economy in 2013 will be the western US, where the majority of San Diego’s key source markets are situated.

Consumer confidence is slowly on the mend. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in September, improved again in October.

Contact: Miriam Perkins Planning and Research, SDTA 619-557-2874 [email protected] www.sandiego/research

Page 2: A A Y - Voice of San Diego · February 2013 2 SAN DIEGO VISITOR INDUSTRY UPDATE—SOURCE: VISITOR ACTIVITY MODEL/VISITOR PROFILE STUDY, CIC RESEARCH, INC. The San Diego visitor industry

February 2013 2

SAN DIEGO VISITOR INDUSTRY UPDATE—SOURCE: VISITOR ACTIVITY MODEL/VISITOR PROFILE STUDY, CIC RESEARCH, INC.

The San Diego visitor industry experienced a very sluggish month of December due in part to inclement weather. Visitor volume posted a decrease of nearly 4 percent compared to December of the prior year. Total visitor volume was a little over 2.5 million for the month. Total visitor spending also declined almost 5 percent in December to about $618 million.

Despite a slowdown in December, the visitor industry finished the year strong with a record 32.3 million visitors and total spend-ing of almost $8 billion. This represented a 3.6 percent increase in visitor volume and a 6.6 percent increase in visitor spend-ing. Overnight visitor volume increased 2.4 percent for the year to a record 16.1 million overnight visitors. Visitors with hotel accommodations led the growth at 5.2 percent, to a record 8.7 million visitors. However, overnight in-home guest volume again struggled, experiencing 8 months of declines in 2012 and ending the year down 1.1 percent. Day visitation also had a good year, growing 4.8 percent to reach 16.1 million. This was in line with Mexican day visitor volume, which grew 6.5 percent compared to the prior year. Combined gate attendance at major attractions grew 3.8 percent to more than 14.3 million people, while the arts and museums attendance increased 8.1 percent. San Diego air passenger arrival volume had its ups and downs in 2012 but ended the year up 1.9 percent .

2012 saw increases in 9 of the 12 months, as overnight visitor volume reached more than 16.1 million. This was an increase of 4.2 percent or 376,000 more overnight visitors. Day visitor volume on the other hand, saw increases in 10 of the 12 months, with an increase of 4.8 percent or 743,000 more day visitors. These positive results are mostly due to the strong performance in terms of the hotel sector and a reasonable performance after long periods of decline in the day visitation from Mexico.

Page 3: A A Y - Voice of San Diego · February 2013 2 SAN DIEGO VISITOR INDUSTRY UPDATE—SOURCE: VISITOR ACTIVITY MODEL/VISITOR PROFILE STUDY, CIC RESEARCH, INC. The San Diego visitor industry

February 2013 3

SAN DIEGO MARKET UPDATE—SOURCE: SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH

The hotel sector also felt the effects of bad weather in December. Average occupancy in the County decreased 4.9 percent and ADR decreased 7.5 percent. As a result, RevPAR decreased 12 percent. The City performed slightly worse than the County over-all. RevPAR YOY growth was down 14.5 percent in the City.

County hotels wrapped the year filling 70.7 percent of its available rooms in 2012 up 2.9 percent. ADR increased 4 percent to finish the year at $130.02. The gains in occupancy and ADR led to a respectable 7.4 percent increase in RevPAR to end the year at $92.93. March provided the high and December the low with regards to the growth rates for occupancy and RevPAR.

In 2012, all TMD sub-regions ended the year in positive growth territory. RevPAR growth ranged from 3.4 percent to 10.1 per-cent, with UTC and La Jolla Coastal areas achieving the highest growth, while Pt. Loma/Airport area achieved the least at 3.4 per-cent.

Within other sub-markets, RevPAR growth ranged from 9.6 percent growth in Del Mar/Oceanside to 7.4 percent growth in San Diego NE/Escondido.

The Convention Center hosted 5,135 fewer attendees compared to 2011.

Page 4: A A Y - Voice of San Diego · February 2013 2 SAN DIEGO VISITOR INDUSTRY UPDATE—SOURCE: VISITOR ACTIVITY MODEL/VISITOR PROFILE STUDY, CIC RESEARCH, INC. The San Diego visitor industry

February 2013 4

Additions to the San Diego County Lodging Inventory—Source: SDCVB Hotel Database

Through December of Fiscal Year 2013, nearly $80.6 million in TOT and nearly $13.9 million in TMD assessments were collected. Collections were up 5.4 percent compared to same time last year and up 0.6 percent to budget.

TOT and TMD Collections—SOURCE: CITY OF SAN DIEGO, TREASURERS DEPARTMENT

Note: The monthly “By Activity Period” figures change on a monthly basis as hotels remit payment and are credited to their account for the specific period.

Hotel Development News

Pier South on track to open by summer | UTSanDiego.com Luxury boutique hotel Pier South is on target to open in Imperial Beach by summer, and it might bring with it the latest mem-ber in the Cohn Restaurant Group.

San Diego getting a new waterfront hotel - San Diego's first waterfront hotel in years is expected to rise on Harbor Drive by 2015, thanks to the California Coastal Commission's unanimous approval Wednesday of the $120 million project.

LEGOLAND to Hire 250 People for New Hotel - LEGOLAND California is in the process of hiring 250 employees to staff its hotel, which is slated to open in April, park General Manager Peter Ronchetti announced Thursday.

Pebblebrook Hotel Trust buys San Diego hotel - Bethesda-based Pebblebrook Hotel Trust has acquired the Embassy Suites San Diego Bay for $112.5 million, its second hotel property in San Diego and its ninth hotel in California. Jeff Clabaugh: Broadcast/Web Reporter- Washington Business Journal

3 SD hotels earn top AAA rankings - Three San Diego County hotels have been deemed the best of the best by AAA. The Grand Del Mar in Carmel Valley, the Lodge at Torrey Pines and the Park Hyatt Aviara in Carlsbad.

Majestic Hotel del Coronado near San Diego turns 125 - The Hotel del Coronado, a sprawling Victorian-style resort with red

turrets across a bridge from San Diego, was featured in the 1959 Tony Curtis/Jack Lemmon/Marilyn Monroe comedy Some Like

It Hot.

Where were last year's biggest hotel purchases? - The cost per room — $640,000 — was the most paid last year for California hotels and was the second-highest price ever paid in San Diego. Nationally, the L'Auberge transaction was just behind three New York City hotel sales and the sale of a hotel and casino in St. Louis.

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE

Mill

ions

Transient Occupancy Tax Actuals

TOT FY 2013 TOT City of SD FY2013 Budget

Viejas Cas ino and Resort 5005 Wi l low Road Alpine March-13 128 5

Legoland Hotel One Legoland Drive Carlsbad Apri l -13 250 5

Pier South (formerly s i te of Seacoast Inn) 800 Seacoast Drive Imperia l Beach June-13 78 5

Hol iday Inn San Diego Bays ide 4875 North Harbor Drive San Diego July-13 54 5

Marriott Springhi l l Sui tes North Myers St. & Miss ion Ave. Oceans ide December-13 150 5

2013 Total 660

Harrah's Rincon Cas ino & Resort 777 Harrah's Rincon Way Val ley Center Apri l -14 403 5

FC Acquis i tion Co. 2-Hotel Complex.

(Formerly Fat Ci ty Restaurant Si te) Paci fic Highway & Hawthorn St. San Diego July-14 364 4

Hol iday Inn - Miss ion Val ley 625 Hotel Ci rcle So. San Diego July-14 87 4

Stone Brewing Company Boutique Hotel Ci tracado Parkway Escondido December-14 50 4

2014 Total 904

Potential Hotels Rating Scale: (5) Hotel i s under construction. (4) Financing for hotel i s secured. (3) Ci ty approved the project

and a l l permits . (2) Architectura l des ign/renderings , environmental documents prepared and ready to obtain permits and

approval from ci ty. (1) Conceptual idea only.

Property Name Address City

Potential

Opening Date

Hotel

Rooms

Potential

Rating

Page 5: A A Y - Voice of San Diego · February 2013 2 SAN DIEGO VISITOR INDUSTRY UPDATE—SOURCE: VISITOR ACTIVITY MODEL/VISITOR PROFILE STUDY, CIC RESEARCH, INC. The San Diego visitor industry

February 2013 5

SAN DIEGO QUARTERLY TRAVEL FORECAST (AS OF DECEMBER 2012) - SOURCE: TOURISM ECONOMICS

Visits to San Diego accelerated 5.0% in the third quarter of 2012, reaching 10.5 million visitors and setting a new record for third quarter visitation. Including an upward revision for the fourth quarter, full year visitor growth is now expected to aver-age 3.6% in 2012, setting a new peak in annual visitation to San Diego.

Visitor expenditures in San Diego jumped 8.3% in 2012 Q3 as average expenditure per day increased across all segments. Visitor spending is expected to surpass the 2008 peak in nominal terms in 2012.

The US economic outlook for 2013, assuming some solution to the fiscal cliff, is for a gradual recovery in growth. Regional economies in the US will evolve at different paces during 2013. The main regional force behind the economy in 2013 will be the western US, where the majority of San Diego’s key source markets are situated.

Visits to San Diego are expected to slow to 2.1% in 2013. The first half of the year is expected to be markedly slower than the second half. While this rate is slower in comparison to the last two years of recovery, visits to San Diego are expected to out-perform the US (1.1%) and rival the pace of California (2.2%).

Longer term, visitor growth is forecast to peak above 3% in 2014 before steadying above 2.5% in 2015 and 2016. Spending will accelerate through 2015 as overnight visitation gathers more strength and the hospitality industry gains pricing power.

Hotel room demand is forecast to grow 1.7% in 2013. While seemingly slow to recent experience, room demand growth in San Diego is expected to outperform the US average (1.2%) for the year. Based on forecasts Tourism Economics provides to Smith Travel Research, San Diego room demand is expected to grow faster than room demand in San Francisco and Ana-heim, but slower than Los Angeles.

Read more: Quarterly Industry Forecast

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012 2013 2014 2015

Visits 1.0% 1.6% 2.6% 2.9% 3.6% 2.1% 3.1% 2.7%

Day 1.2% 2.9% 3.7% 4.4% 4.5% 3.2% 4.1% 3.0%

Overnight 0.9% 0.3% 1.3% 1.7% 2.8% 1.1% 2.1% 2.4%

Expenditure 3.1% 2.7% 4.5% 4.5% 6.9% 3.8% 5.7% 5.9%

Hotel Sector

Room Supply 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% 1.5%

Room Demand 2.1% 0.6% 2.4% 1.6% 3.6% 1.7% 2.4% 2.8%

Occupancy 4.3% 4.8% 2.9% 1.8% 3.5% 1.0% 1.4% 1.3%

ADR 3.2% 1.0% 3.7% 4.6% 4.5% 3.1% 5.2% 4.5%

RevPAR 4.9% 1.1% 5.4% 5.3% 8.2% 4.2% 6.7% 5.8%

San Diego Tourism Summary Outlook

2013 YOY % Growth Year-to-Year % Growth

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

San Diego: Overnight Visits

% growth y-o-y

Source : Tourism Economics/CIC Research

ADR

Overnight visits

Average GDP growth by origin markets

Forecast

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Occupancy and ADR (12mma)

Source : Tourism Economics / STR

Occupancy rate (rhs)

ADR(year-to-year

% growth)

Forecast

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Room Supply

Room Demand

Occupancy rate, 12mma (rhs)

Hotel Room Supply & Demand

Source : Tourism Economics / STR

% growth Forecast

Page 6: A A Y - Voice of San Diego · February 2013 2 SAN DIEGO VISITOR INDUSTRY UPDATE—SOURCE: VISITOR ACTIVITY MODEL/VISITOR PROFILE STUDY, CIC RESEARCH, INC. The San Diego visitor industry

February 2013 6

SAN DIEGO CONVENTION CENTER CORPORATION ATTENDANCE FORECAST

2012 2013

Conventions 67 60

YOY Difference -7 -7

Estimated Attendance 561,523 509,431

YOY Difference (5,135) (52,092)

Sources:

Source of past months’ attendance is SDCCC actual reported attendance post event.

Source of attendance of future months is the estimated attendance provided by the meeting planners to SDCCC.

Summary

30 34 47

33 31

104

157

24 34 30 28

10

35 44

17

46

72

28

145

17 22 34

43

8

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

San Diego Convention Center CorporationPrimary and Short Term Convention Attendance

2012 2013

Page 7: A A Y - Voice of San Diego · February 2013 2 SAN DIEGO VISITOR INDUSTRY UPDATE—SOURCE: VISITOR ACTIVITY MODEL/VISITOR PROFILE STUDY, CIC RESEARCH, INC. The San Diego visitor industry

February 2013 7

COMPETITIVE MARKETS - HOTEL PERFORMANCE—SOURCE: SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH

Transient Segment (Luxury/Upper Upscale Only—represents about 40% of inventory, remaining 60% mostly transient rooms are not included )

In 2012, all six competitive markets saw growth in transient RevPAR of between 0.3 and 12.2 percent, with Phoenix at just above flat at 0.3 percent and San Francisco on the high end at 12.2 percent. San Diego ended the year with minimal growth in transient occupancy (0.5%), and 4.8 percent growth in the average daily rate.

In the group segment, Los Angeles outperformed the rest of the markets in 2012 achieving 12.9 percent growth in RevPAR through both occupancy and rate growth. San Diego’s RevPAR of 8 percent was second to Los Angeles, and mainly driven by occupancy growth as the group rate grew the least at just 1.7 percent. San Francisco’s RevPAR growth still ended the year up due to its con-tinued push of the average daily rate. After a few years of very strong growth in the group market, Seattle lost some steam in 2012 with flat occupancy and 2.5 percent rate growth.

Group Segment (Luxury/Upper Upscale Only - represents about 40% of inventory, but includes most group rooms)

Page 8: A A Y - Voice of San Diego · February 2013 2 SAN DIEGO VISITOR INDUSTRY UPDATE—SOURCE: VISITOR ACTIVITY MODEL/VISITOR PROFILE STUDY, CIC RESEARCH, INC. The San Diego visitor industry

February 2013 8

COMPETITIVE MARKETS - HOTEL PERFORMANCE—SOURCE: SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH

Competitive Market News

The six western markets sold 2,656,423 more room nights in 2012, a 3.0 percent increase over 2011. In 2012, Los Angeles outper-formed the competitive set in room night demand with growth of 4.0 percent, taking .31 percent more share than last year. Se-attle and Anaheim also increased share .08 percent and .12 percent respectively, while San Diego ended the year just in positive growth territory (up .01%). In the last half of the year, Anaheim, Phoenix and Seattle gained momentum and took share from the other markets.

Southern California - HOT for hotel development as values exceed cost

Los Angeles

Los Angeles Tourism Breaks Record in 2012 with 41.4 Million Visitors Orange County

Big conventions mean big bucks for Orange County

Orange County targets Chinese tourists San Francisco

San Francisco Travel surpasses 500,000 Facebook “Likes” Seattle

Seattle's Convention and Visitors Bureau changes name to 'Visit Seattle' Arizona

Cambria Suites expands into Phoenix with a four story – 121 room hotel

Scottsdale hotels growing revenue, still way behind pre-recession

% change

RNS

Share

Change

% change

RNS

Share

Change

Market Region 2011 2012 YOY 2011 2012

Calendar

Year 2012

Fiscal Year

2012

Fiscal Year

2013 YOY

Fiscal Year

2012

Fiscal Year

2013

Fiscal Year

2013

Anaheim 13,857,049 14,335,570 3.5% 15.07% 15.15% 0.08% 7,078,415 7,346,534 3.8% 15.20% 15.40% 0.20%

Los Angeles 25,592,215 26,620,404 4.0% 27.83% 28.14% 0.31% 13,055,447 13,498,753 3.4% 28.04% 28.30% 0.26%

Phoenix 13,024,235 13,096,938 0.6% 14.16% 13.84% -0.32% 5,840,811 5,872,089 0.5% 12.54% 12.31% -0.23%

San Diego 14,537,232 14,969,633 3.0% 15.81% 15.82% 0.01% 7,480,621 7,596,015 1.5% 16.07% 15.92% -0.15%

San Francisco 14,766,295 15,007,374 1.6% 16.06% 15.86% -0.20% 7,733,266 7,801,926 0.9% 16.61% 16.35% -0.26%

Seattle 10,178,871 10,582,401 4.0% 11.07% 11.19% 0.12% 5,372,671 5,590,430 4.1% 11.54% 11.72% 0.18%

CY 2011 CY 2012 RNS % Change FY 2012 FY 2013 RNS % Change

91,955,897 94,612,320 2,656,423 2.9% 46,561,231 47,705,747 1,144,516 2.5%

2011 vs 2012

Market Share

Western Region Markets Comparison

Room Nights Sold

Total Room Nights Sold FY 2013 vs 2012

Calendar Year 2011 vs. 2012 through December

Room Nights Sold Market Share

Total Room Nights Sold

Fiscal Year 2012 vs. 2013 through December

Page 9: A A Y - Voice of San Diego · February 2013 2 SAN DIEGO VISITOR INDUSTRY UPDATE—SOURCE: VISITOR ACTIVITY MODEL/VISITOR PROFILE STUDY, CIC RESEARCH, INC. The San Diego visitor industry

February 2013 9

CALIFORNIA TRENDS AND OUTLOOK— SOURCE: VISIT CALIFORNIA

According to Visit California, travel indicators point to largely positive trending for the industry through year's end and into 2013. The occupancy rate for the state lodging industry was 55.7 percent in December and 68.8 percent for the year on whole, up 3.1 percent and 3.6 percent respectively year over year. Average room rates in December were $112.73, up 4.0 percent yr/yr, and year-end rates averaged $123.23, up 5.8 percent from 2011.

Source: Individual CA airports

California Travel Forecast According to the October, 2012 California Travel Forecast by Tourism Economics, 2013 should see continued growth in travel but at a slowing pace. Tourism Economics forecasts that California visitation will grow by 2.2 percent in 2013 after 2.5 percent growth in 2012. Domestic leisure travel is forecast to grow by 2 percent while international leisure travel is forecast to grow by 4.5 per-cent.

Source: Smith Travel Research

Source: US Dept. of Commerce

Visit California also reported that California’s 10 largest airports reported combined growth of 8 percent for domestic traffic and 4 percent for international traffic in November, and YTD have had 4.7 percent growth in domestic passengers and 4.2 percent growth in international passengers. The news for overseas port of entry arrivals- foreign travelers going through customs at California air-ports- is less impressive with flat growth through August. But overseas travelers claiming California as their first intended address in the US climbed 3.8 percent for the same period, suggesting that actual travel to California by international travelers is growing.

Source: Strategic Marketing & Research, Inc., April 2011

CA Occupancy Yr/Yr Chg: Last 12 Months CA ADR Yr/Yr Chg: Last 12 Month

Page 10: A A Y - Voice of San Diego · February 2013 2 SAN DIEGO VISITOR INDUSTRY UPDATE—SOURCE: VISITOR ACTIVITY MODEL/VISITOR PROFILE STUDY, CIC RESEARCH, INC. The San Diego visitor industry

February 2013 10

NATIONAL TRENDS AND OUTLOOK— SOURCE: U.S. TRAVEL ASSOCIATION

According to Dr. Suzanne Cook, Senior Advisor to the U.S. Travel Association, the Unit-ed States economy strengthened in 2012, growing 2.2 percent after a 1.8 increase the year before. Labor There is good news on the job front. Employers added 157,000 jobs in January, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Consumer Confidence and Spending Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate last quarter, up from 1.6 percent the previous quarter, according to the BEA. Leisure Travel Most sectors of the travel industry are increasingly optimistic about 2013, but prob-lems remain for some. U.S. Travel's latest forecast calls for a 1.2 percent increase in domestic leisure travel in 2013 and another 1.7 percent increase in 2014. Business Travel Travel Leaders Group reports that most of its business-focused travel agents are forecasting that clients will be traveling as much or more than last year; less than 10 percent of those polled say their clients will be traveling less. Meetings Meeting Professionals International (MPI) suggests possible trouble ahead for the meetings sector. Its latest MPI Business Barometer shows that 18 percent of meeting planners have negative feelings about business conditions, up from 14 per-cent in October. Air Travel Airline travel predictions for 2013 are mixed. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), 2012 enjoyed a 5.3 percent year-over-year increase in passenger demand, down slightly on 2011 growth of 5.9 percent, but above the 20-year average (5%). Lodging Industry The U.S. hotel industry is entering its fourth year of recovery. Soaring demand and record room nights sales on a nearly monthly basis has boosted operators’ confidence and prompted rate increases in earnest. International Travel Performance remains positive in the international travel segment. According to the World Tourism Organization's (UNWTO) latest World Tourism Barometer, international tourist arrivals worldwide grew 4.0 percent in 2012 to reach 1.035 billion, surpassing one billion for the first time and setting a new record. Exports Travel exports reached an all-time high last year. The trade surplus in travel also rose to a record of $50 billion in 2012, up from $43 billion. Policy Travel companies are lining up in support of provisions in the White House's immigra-tion proposal that aims to further streamline visa processing, boost travel and bolster the slowly recovering economy.

Page 11: A A Y - Voice of San Diego · February 2013 2 SAN DIEGO VISITOR INDUSTRY UPDATE—SOURCE: VISITOR ACTIVITY MODEL/VISITOR PROFILE STUDY, CIC RESEARCH, INC. The San Diego visitor industry

February 2013 11

TRAVEL NEWS

San Diego International Airport

U.S. Travel

International Travel To the U.S.

The Green Build Update: Construction on The Green Build continues to make headway -- and remains on time and within budget, making tracks toward a summer 2013 opening.

SeaPort Airlines announces new service between Imperial Valley and San Diego

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced that 7.1 million international visitors traveled to the United States in August 2012, a six percent increase over August 2011. August 2012 registered the 17th straight month of increases in total U.S. visits.

international visitors spent an estimated $13.7 billion on travel to, and tourism-related activities within, the United States during the month of July - $350 million (3 percent) more than was spent in July 2011.

International Tourism to Continue Robust Growth in 2013 International tourist arrivals grew by 4% in 2012 to reach 1.035 billion, according to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. Emerging economies (+4.1%) regained the lead over advanced economies (+3.6%), with Asia and the Pacific showing the strongest results. Growth is expected to continue in 2013 only slightly below the 2012 level (+3% to +4%) and in line with UNWTO long term forecast.

PwC US forecasts stronger RevPAR recovery Reflecting stronger lodging demand and economic activity that exhibits less retrenchment than expected, an updated lodging fore-cast released by PwC US anticipates stronger RevPAR recovery in 2013, compared to the previous outlook.

Expedia reports record room nights growth, expects competitive intensity to increase Expedia Inc. released its fourth-quarter results today and recorded record room-night-growth at 33% year over year. But there were some negative rumblings in the background as the company revealed it could owe the state of Hawaii up to $170 million if a tax ruling doesn’t ultimately go its way.

In travel, we’re all boomers now From new hotel Web sites to shorter cruises to smaller tours, the travel industry is redoubling its efforts this year to win the hearts and wallets of people between the ages of 49 and 67, writes The New York Times.

Four-year boom expected for the US hotel industry The U.S. hotel industry is booming, more so than anywhere else in the world, and many in the industry say they expect the good times to keep rolling for a few more years until supply catches up with demand.

How marketing in the travel industry will change in 2013 With Wikipedia shaking up online travel with WikiVoyage, things are already changing in this essential industry at the start of 2013. As travel becomes more and more accessible and more competitive, how marketing in this space has to become more savvy and customer centric.

Hotel Demand Outlook for 2013 Remains Positive According to TravelClick Hotels continue to see a steady increase in occupancy and revenue performance, according to data from the January 2013 Trav-elClick North American Hospitality Review (NAHR). When looking at Q1 2013 through Q4 2013, the current outlook is for moderate growth, with continued improvement in average daily rate (ADR) being the key driver.

Fly Guy: 2013 Air Travel Predictions - USATODAY Anyone who's been flying in recent years knows there's one trend that continues unabated: Fliers will face more -- and higher -- fees in the coming year. But will the trajectory of fewer airlines, higher fares and crowded planes continue?

North Embarcadero Visionary Plan Phase I A portion of West Broadway will be temporarily closed to vehicular traffic beginning January 23, 2013 until the summer 2013 as the Port of San Diego continues a beautification and public access project for the North Embarcadero.

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TRAVEL NEWS CONTINUE…

U.S. travel agents sold more airline tickets in 2012 ARC, the financial settlement link between airlines and travel sellers, reported the consolidated dollar value of airline tickets sold by U.S.-based travel agencies increased 2.93 percent year-over-year in 2012 compared to 2011, and 9.22 percent compared to 2010.

Travel Employment Rebounds In January David Huether, senior vice president of economics and research at the U.S. Travel Associ-ation, provides analysis on the Labor Department report on January 2013 employment numbers.

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Survey: 85% of travelers repeat vacation destinations According to a new Cheapflights.com poll of 1,053 Americans, 85% of those surveyed are inclined to vacation somewhere they've already visited, with "great weather" and "good prices" tied for top reasons to return.

Luxury hotels: Affluent millennials target audience of the future as baby boomers are moving out The up-and-coming luxury con-sumer responds to different marketing strategies than the baby boomer and older luxury consumer. For example, when marketing a hotel chain to a younger demographic, brand should look to incorporate entertainment into the hotel experience.

GROUP U.S. Meetings Industry Has Recovered from the Corporate Travel Cutbacks of the 2008 Recession But meetings will never be the same, according to a new study by The ACTIVE Network, Inc.

Meeting Professionals International Releases December Business Barometer Results Fiscal Cliff Apprehension Kicks Starts New Year.

Technology changing the face of business travel According to a new Amadeus report, two thirds of travelers are now able to book their business travel through an online booking tool. But only a third of travelers are able to book travel on a mobile or tablet de-vice.

GDS corporate booking volume back on track According to new Pegasus data, December closed 2012 on a positive note overall for both business, with future hotel stays suggesting plenty of potential. Corporate booking volume through the GDS channel is back on track worldwide, while rates continue to push ahead of 2011.

Annual incentive travel trends survey The top findings from this year’s survey by the Incentive Research Foundation show little change from last year, in part due to the negative economic picture painted in late 2012. The overall message from incentive travel planners seems to be: “Hold steady.”

HRG: Corporate hotel rates increase in most major cities In North America, hotels approached negotiation season with a very bull-ish attitude, leading to high rate rises, according to HRG. Hotels are also paying more attention to cancellation deadlines, which is placing a further squeeze on rates.

Meeting trends for 2013, according Benchmark Hospitality Meeting demand is improving at an encouraging pace to start the New Year, according to Benchmark Hotels & Resorts. With increased demand, group rates are advancing commensurately, depending on the location and the market.

Hoteliers combat shrinking meetings trend Booking windows are shrinking, which requires hotel staffs to be faster on their feet. As the economy inches back, meeting planners reportedly are aiming for shorter and smaller meetings, and many hoteliers said they are either adapting or developing strategies to combat the losses in revenue.

Group segmentation data mirrors meeting trends Group demand has not recovered at the pace of transient demand. Group de-mand decreased 3.6% from January 2012 to the year’s end. Group business has become less concentrated in the top 25 markets.

Convention center expansions drive demand In a recent JLL study that studied 15 markets, all hotels experienced an increase in revenue over a three- to five-year period after a convention center expansion.

AmEx forecast outlines global meeting trends Hotels in Asia are expected to see the strongest growth in both meetings activity and spending, according to the American Express Meetings & Events “2013 Meetings Forecast.” North American meetings activity and spending, however, will remain relatively flat, according to Issa Jouaneh, VP and GM of American Express Meetings & Events.

Meetings Industry Brief An overview of the meetings and events industry shows growing optimism within the incentives sector as we move into 2013.