Florida 2060 Revisited

Charles Pattison

Frances Chandler-Marino

Melina Duggal

Debra Dremann

Wellyn Land Company

Florida 2060In 2006, the 1000 Friends of Florida sanctioned a trend analysis of development/population distribution

Based on 2005 data

Depicted a sprawling pattern of development that covered much of central Florida

20602005

17.9 Million

35.8 Million

Population Forecast

Revised BEBR Mid Ranch Population Numbers

2005 – 2020 22,894,140 v. 21,325,800 (93%)

2020 – 2040 29,203,842 v. 26,081,800 (89%)

2040 – 2060 35,814,574 v. 32,591,262 (91%)

Assumptions

1. Moderate Population Growth (BEBR trend line)

2. New population consumes land at same density as existing development, by County

3. New population distributed geographically based on land suitability (existing urban, roadways, water, coastline, wetlands)

Existing Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands

Developed Land

Conservation LandsPermanently Protected

2060 Developed Lands and Permanent Conservation Lands

Developed Land

Conservation LandsPermanently Protected

20602005

Agriculture, Other Undeveloped Lands

19.5

Urban Development

6.0

Urban Development

13.0

Water

2.0Water

2.0

PermanentlyProtected

Conservation

10.8

PermanentlyProtected

Conservation

10.8Agriculture, Other

Undeveloped Lands

12.5

Statewide Land Use Allocation (millions of acres)

Total: 38.3 Million Acres

Developed Land and Permanent Conservation Lands

Developed Land

Conservation LandsPermanently Protected

2005 2060

Issues Not Addressed

1. Water supply

2. Additional land acquisition

3. Sea level rise

4. Changes in market demand

5. Reasonableness of business as usual

6. Local comprehensive plans

IS Florida 2060 Still Relevant?Have market conditions changed forever?

Are the 2005 assumptions still reasonable?

Has the sprawling pattern of development become obsolete?

Is the financial climate so dissimilar that growth can’t be funded?

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Revisiting 2060

Delayed or Different?

A Market Perspective

13

We Are In The

Recovery Phase…

It Just Doesn’t

Feel Like It Yet…

Unemployment Rates By County2007 Annual Averages

Unemployment rates by county,

2009 annual averages

(U.S. rate = 9.3 percent)

1.9% or below 2.0% to 2.9% 3.0% to 3.9%

4.0% to 4.9% 5.0% to 5.9% 6.0% to 6.9% 7.0% to 9.9%

10.0% or over

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statist ics

Local Area Unemployment Statist ics

April 2010September 2010

Unemployment Rates By County2009 Annual Averages

Unemployment Rates By CountyMarch 2010 – February 2011 Averages

FL still suffering

Unemployment Rates By CountyAugust 2010 – July 2011 Averages

Starting to look better

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NORMAL

PEAK

TROUGHRECOVERY

2006

2009 20102012

2001

2011

Moderate job growth in 2011

Housing starts begin to rise in 2012

Lending standards and regulatory uncertainties loosen in 2012

Boomers and Gen Y enter market in 2015+

2013 – The Next “Normal” YearSlow To Moderate Growth Through Recovery

RCLCO PROJECTIONS FOR RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

RECOVERY

9 Million New People Projected in FL by 2040

Projected Population Growth (Thousands) by Planning Region2010-2040

SOURCE: BEBR Medium-High Projections from June 2011

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SOURCE: BEBR, RCLCO, US Census

In 2005, 35.8 Projected In 2060, Now 32.2m Projected In 2060

2000 2005 2010 2060 (old) 2060 (new)

16.017.9 18.8

35.832.2

FL Population

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Current Supply And Demand

SUPPLY: STILL OVER SUPPLIED– But we’ve reduced inventories since 2007

– Not out of the woods, but not 2007

– THEN: Values will always go up: Wrong

– NOW: Everything has changed permanently: Wrong

DEMAND: TWO BIG MARKETS WILL IMPACT FLORIDA

– Generation Y enters housing market

– Boomers retire – FL still warm and sunny

SOURCE: RCLCO

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Long-term Demographic Trends Influencing How We Live

Key Demographic Drivers:

1. Generational shifts

2. Rise of non-traditional households

3. Growth in minority households

4. Domestic migration and foreign Immigration

5. Income and wealth

Generation Born 2010 Age

2010 Pop.

2010 % of Natio

n

Florida

2010 Pop.

2010 % of

Florida

Eisenhowers Before 1946 64+ 41M 13% 3.4M 18%

Baby Boomers 1946 – 1964 45 – 64 80M 26% 4.9 M 26%

Gen X 1965 – 1980 29 – 45 62M 20% 3.6M 19%

Gen Y (Millenials)

1981 – 1999 10 – 29 85M 27% 4.7M 25%

Gen Z (?) 2000 and After 0 – 10 42M 14% 2.3M 12%

SOURCE: Claritas, National Center for Health Statistics

Gen Y And Baby Boomers Two Largest Groups Nationally And In Florida

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Year Student Housing

RentalHousing

Rent As Couple / 1st Home

Young Family Own

Mature Family Own

Buy 2nd Home

Empty Nester

Downsize Own

Buy RetireHome

2010 Gen Y Gen Y Gen XGen Y Gen X Baby B Baby B Baby B Eisen

Baby B

2015 Gen Y Gen Y Gen Y Gen XGen Y

Baby BGen X

Baby BGen X Baby B Eisen

Baby B

2020 Gen YGen Z Gen Y Gen Y Gen Y Gen X Baby B

Gen XBaby BGen X

EisenBaby B

2025 Gen Z Gen YGen Z

Gen YGen Z Gen Y Gen X

Gen YGen XGen Y

Gen XBaby B Baby B

Life Stage Influences Housing Choices

SOURCE: RCLCO

60+ (Eisen-hower)

50-59 (BB)

40-49 (BB & Gen X)

30-39 (Gen X)

18-29 (Gen Y)

14% 15% 14% 18%31%

39% 38% 38%47%

42%

46% 47% 47%34% 25%

City Suburban Small Town/Rural

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Where Do Different Generations Want To Live?

Source: 2011 National Community Preference Survey, National Association of Realtors, March 2011

60+ (Eisen-hower)

50-59 (BB)

40-49 (BB & Gen X)

30-39 (Gen X)

18-29 (Gen Y)

78% 83% 84% 84%74%

8% 3% 8% 8%

6%

8% 8%5%

4%

15%

SFD SFA/TH Apt/Condo

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How Does Product Preference Change By Generation?

Source: 2011 National Community Preference Survey, National Association of Realtors, March 2011

Product Preference By Location

• Gen Y more open to MF products in all

locations than other generations

• City

• More renters

• MF, attached & small lot detached

• 30% attached

• Suburban

• Dominated by SFD, both small and large

lot

• 15% attached

• Rural/Small Town

• Primarily large lot SFD

• 8% attached Canin Associates

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– “Urban myth” = prefer “safe urbanism”

– Village center – entertainment & retail services nearby – walkable!

– Healthy active lifestyles

– Affordability

– Smaller, move-down homes, high-level of finish

– May rejuvenate 2nd home market

– Low-maintenance lifestyle

– Niche SFD and SFA products

Demographics: Impact Of Boomer

SOURCE: RCLCO

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– Primarily families - still have to build for the family buyer

– Good schools!!!!!!

– Larger lots/homes

– Affordability

– Healthy active lifestyles – safe neighborhoods, parks, trails and walkability!

– Hard to balance life - also desire in-town areas and inner suburbs close to jobs, entertainment & services

Demographics: Impact of Gen X

SOURCE: RCLCO

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– In-town areas and inner suburbs will remain on an upward trajectory

– Diversity, walkability and proximity to jobs keys to attracting this segment

– Suburbs will need to evolve to remain attractive to Gen Y

• More walkable areas, including new and existing town centers

• Master planned communities

– Niche products and “village centers”

– Affordability

Demographics: Impact Of Gen Y

SOURCE: RCLCO

How is the Development Community Responding ?

2007 to 2010 TODAY

Florida Housing Permits – Peak to Trough

Housing Unit Building Permits for Florida2005 versus 2009

2005 2009 Loss % Change

Total Units 287,250 35,326 (251,924) (88%)

Units in SF 209,162 26,633 (182,529) (87%)

Units in MF 78,088 8,693 (69,395) (89%)

2010 Florida increased to 38,679 Units – Ranking #3 of the Top 10 StatesTexas #1 at 88,461 and California at 43,716

Source: US Census Bureau

Key Influencers:

• Uncertainty of Market Demand &

Market Values

• Tremendous Amount of Competition

• Changing Demographics

• Availability of Capital

• Job Creation still not sufficient to reduce unemployment

• Banks still VERY slow to move non-performing loans off of balance sheets

• Home Values not at Bottom Yet – Market Specific

• Continued Foreclosures activity for 2 to 3 more years

• Global & Wall Street Instability

Recession Worries Still Abound

• Home builders have ceased lay-offs and are hiring again for the first time since 2006

• Access to Capital is BACK

• Home Affordability is BACK (If you can qualify)

• Florida still very desirable for Baby Boomers

• The Rise of Gen Y

• Low Interest Rates

So What’s the Good News?

Who’s Buying and What’s Selling Now

Rose Cottage – 27’ x 130’ - 1,200 SF

Townhome – 1,496 SF

Forest Creek in Parrish, FL – Neal Communities“Value” – Affordability

is Back!

• Heart of the “for-sale” market: $150K to $300K

• Boomers & Gen Y - Smaller homes & lots

• Families - McMansions at $64/sf

• Single Family Detached more so than Attached

• Multi-Family High Demand

What’s Important in a Home?Some consumers motivated by

“green” but not paying premium. Builder’s see it as a Differentiator!

Buying the house I “need” not NEED + INVESTMENT. 2nd Home and vacation home market still struggling (foreign national buyers back)

Primary Luxury market back in some places – Still at a Discount

Where are they buying?

AVAILABILITY OF CAPITALPrivate versus Public

Primarily Privately Owned & Funded (Debt & Equity)

Higher Costs of Capital

Cautiously approaching new land deals

Competition - A lot of new players on the scene

A lot of looking, not a lot of buying

Primary Interest - CDD Defaults, Bank REO’s & Distressed Loans (No Greenfield)

Master Planned Community Developers

AVAILABILITY OF CAPITALPRIVATE DEVELOPER

Increased Activity from Private Capital

“A” Markets - Bank Debt Back

“A” Markets - CDD Bond Financing Back

Wall Street & Privately Funded

Lower Costs of Capital

More Aggressively approaching new land deals

A lot of Competition

Must maintain a pipeline

Primary Interest – Finished Lots and undeveloped land under 500 units (will partner with other builder’s on larger sites)

Home Builder/Developer – National Publics

AVAILABILITY OF CAPITALPUBLIC HOME BUILDER

Good Access to Capital

Good Access to Cheaper Capital

May Dominate Land Development in the Future???

AVAILABILITY OF CAPITALPRIVATE HOME BUILDER

Small Local and Regional Builder’s and Developers Devastated by Recession

Higher costs of Capital

Some new start-ups are emerging – Affordable Niche Products in Existing Communities & In-fill neighborhoods

Canadian Builders Investing in US – Ashton Woods & Mattamy Homes

2011/2012 Forecast

More Planning

Re-Positioning

Re-Entitling

More Home Building

Increase in Multi-Family For-Rent Activity

2011/2012 FORECAST “Greenfield” DEVELOPMENT

DEVELOPMENT FORECASTHEALTHIER & GREENER

And maybe a little more dense…

Developer’s Perspective on 2060 –

• Delayed or Different?

• Different– State will continue with acquisition of state

lands in the future when budgets rebound

– Developer’s do understand that trails and open space are important to selling homes and good stewardship of the land

– Demographic shifts and changes in affordability & Interest rate volatility will keep most homes in the more compact range.

FLORIDA 2060 REVISITEDCHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

To embrace a focus that is visionary & proactive instead of responsive & reactive

To create a bigger picture – a statewide vision that informs policy and spending

April 10, 2023Page 50

REVISITING POLICY PRIORITIES:VISION FOR 2060

1. Focus on Natural Systems. Protect our natural systems as assets that serve to enhance our competitive position.

2. Key Economic Locations. Identify economic development priority locations and support these areas with land use a capital program planning – on a statewide basis.

3. Support the Evolution of Agricultural Industry. Prioritize commercial agriculture as an economic development objective and support the evolution of the agricultural enterprises.

REVISITING POLICY PRIORITIES:VISION FOR 2060

4. State Multimodal Strategy. Create a statewide system of multimodal economic and social connectivity.

5. Local Multimodal Strategy. Recognize and respect individual community characteristics through a “connectivity transect.”

6. City, Town & Country. Allow ranges of policies to support various scales, densities, types, forms and uses consistent with the context of the community.

FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:1. TAKE CARE OF FLORIDA

Place a priority on taking care of those things that make Florida special and unique:

• Coastline

• Beaches

• Rivers

• Natural Systems

• Corridors

FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:2. JOBS, JOBS, JOBS

Make economic development a priority – really.

• Globally competitive on a statewide basis

• Strategic infrastructure investments

• Create a foundation for a 21st century economy

• High tech / target (urban) + industrial (rural)

April 10, 2023Page 54DeSoto Solar Power Plant, Arcadia, FL

Tampa Biotech Incubators, UCF

FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:3. CONNECT PEOPLE TO PEOPLE TO PLACES

Establish the framework for a statewide/ multi-modal system of economic and social connectivity.

• Commuter Rail, High Speed Rail, & Support Transit

• Airports

• Ports

April 10, 2023Page 55

FRAMEWORK FOR 2060 VISION:4. CELEBRATE DIVERSITY

Recognize and support the unique visioning efforts & lifestyle choices of each community.

• Regional Visioning efforts

• Local Visioning efforts

• Let Cities be Cities; Suburbs be Suburbs; and Rural areas be Rural – one size does not fit all

Page 56

How Shall We Grow? 2009myregion.org

PRIORITIES FOR A NEW 2060

1. TAKE CARE OF FLORIDA

2. JOBS, JOBS, JOBS

3. CONNECT PEOPLE TO PEOPLE TO PLACES

4. CELEBRATE DIVERSITY

Prioritize expenditures as investments to create our desired future – we’re worth it.

April 10, 2023Page 57

Florida 2060 Revisited

Frances Chandler-Marino

Melina Duggal

Debra Dremann

Charles Pattison

Wellyn Land Company