9 isikveren computer aided business case assessment

8/3/2019 9 Isikveren Computer Aided Business Case Assessment

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Dr Askin T. Isikveren

Director, MSc Integrated Aerospace Systems Design

Director, Engineering Design Degree ProgrammeDepts of Aerospace Engineering & Engineering Mathematics

email: [email protected] & [email protected]

Computer-aided Business Case

Assessment in Engineering Design

Education

March 2009


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Business Case in Engineering Design EducationGalorath Conference 2009

The Business Case

Ref: VKI Lecture SeriesA US Perspective on FutureCommercial Airplane Design

McMasters, 2005

In all engineering initiatives

the only acceptable basis for

launching a [product]development programme

is one in which low risk,

high ROI and shortest

possible timeline is secured Up to 80% of the life-cycle cost

of most high valued-added engineered

products is incurred during the conceptual

design phase By the time completion of the design and development stage occurs

95% of the product cost is fixed and most of the development cost is

spent


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Are categorised by:

Long investment periods

Outgoings over many years Income over many years

Large and frequent expenditures

Significant risk factors

It requires:

Annual Cash flows over many years

An account for the time effect on the value of money

Determination of the value of the investment in terms of todaysMoney NPV

The return needs to be compared to the fixed return of the other

investment to determine which is most suitable

Complex Investment Decisions

Decrease net cash outflow

Create Positive cash flow earlier

Increase net cash inflow

Decrease net cash outflow

Create Positive cash flow earlier

Increase net cash inflow


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SEER-H Software: Why is it useful? Used widely in industry US DoD, Boeing (e.g. the AH-

64A Apache Rotorcraft), Ford, Northrop Grumman

Provides development,production, operations and

support estimates for

systems and sub-systems(also estimate integration costs)

Can input detailed part information, such as complexity or

finishing details, to improve estimate

Business case can now be coupled into the multi-objectiveoptimisation problem best and balanced design

Business case can now be coupled into the multi-objectiveoptimisation problem best and balanced design


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Aerospace Vehicle Design & Systems Integration 3F/4F

Each Group (10-12 members) is required to carry out the design

of a complete aircraft to the given Design Specification The study is competitive with each Group attempting to produce

the best, balanced design

Support Each Group has a academic advisor

General support is given by a team of

active and retired externals

Duration

The project is 16 contact weeks, spanning early-Oct to mid-Feb

Engineering Design Education:AEROSPACE Group Design Project


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The Greener By Design committee have proposed thatinstead of flying

long distance routes non-stop, significant fuel savings could be achieved

by flying these routes astwo or more shorter flights, stopping en-route to

refuel.

The purpose of this task is to design

a passenger aircraft to compete

against mid-sized non-stop, long-

range aircraft, butoptimised for

multi-stop operations, and hence a

shorter design range requirement.

The aircraft must meet the regulatory,

economic and environmental needsof operators for an intended

Entry into Service date of 2020.

UB2009F Project Brief


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UB2009F Project Competitors

B757-300 B767-300 A330-200

B787-8 A350-800


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UB2009F Project Low-risk, Low-cost Option


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UB2009F Student Project Proposals

GRP 1F

GRP 3F GRP 4F

GRP 2F


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GRP 2F Family of Aircraft

Range(nm)

Pass

engers

300

250

200

3200nmrange

300/406passengers

148TMTOW

4000nmrange

250/338passengers

143TMTOW

6000nmrange

200/284passengers

152TMTOW

Range(nm)

Pass

engers

300

250

200

3200nmrange

300/406passengers

148TMTOW

4000nmrange

250/338passengers

143TMTOW

6000nmrange

200/284passengers

152TMTOW


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GRP 2F ModellingInput

EquipmentType Application Platform AcquisitionCategory Weight MaterialComposition Quantity MeanTimeBetweenFailure

(electricalcomponents)

Output

DevelopmentCost ProductionCost EquipmentSupportCost SystemLevelCost DevelopmentLabourHours


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GRP 2F Modelling Results


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GRP 2F Modelling Results

Viridis aircraft were designed with:

Common wing, empennage, undercarriage and engines

SEER-H software was used to calculate the product development cost if

there was no family commonality and it was found that: V200 production unit cost of V200 was reduced by 5.4% and V300 by 4.1%

Breakeven analysis was also carried out using SEER-H software

Analysis shows the return can be boosted USD4B if family commonality exists


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GRP 2F Scope-Schedule Planning


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The Engineering Design Degree Programme

Future Leaders of Multi-disciplinary [Large-scale]

Engineering Projects

How?

Capture a broad systems architect understanding engineering, business, social/environmental issues

Foster excellent communication skills

Acquire experience in working in multi-disciplinary teams

Specialist competence in one sub-discipline of Engineering

Gain experience in applied and practical engineering


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Engineering Design: Industrial Partners

GE Aviation Propellers & Avionics

Galorath as Software Partner


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Engineering Design Education:

ENGINEERING DESIGN Industrial Group Projects

A genuine back-burner issue that needs resolution

Multi-disciplinary team with headcount of 5 students

Compatible with the man-power, computing and workshopresources of the University

Spend limit of 2,000 from the University plus support

from the Industrial Sponsor Two-year timescale

First year emphasis on design candidates for down-select,

experiments rigs and/or modelling/simulation tools

Second year focuses on detailed design, integration,

optimisation and business case


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Y0102 Cohort: Completed Y0506 (inaugural) Motorola: Robotic Security Guard

Robotic investigator able to navigate autonomously around a mappedenvironment, log and avoid obstacles, and identify objects of interest


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Y0203 Cohort: Completed Y0607 Arup: Redeveloping Blackfriars Station

Innovative redevelopment of existing Blackfriars Railway Station into a

transport interchange ready for the increased growth demands


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Y0304 Cohort: Completed Y0708 Airbus UK: Multi-modal Freight Hub

Feasibility and preliminary design of a multi-modal freight hub at the

former RAF base at Lyneham


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Group Industrial Projects Completion Y0809 Arup: Elevated Ride / Transport System between

mainland and Lulu Island in Abu Dhabi

Babcock: Mechanical Handling System for Nuclear WasteFlasks

GE Aviation: Novel Propeller Pitch Change Mechanism forOpen Rotor Aero Engine

HP Labs: Personal Eco Footprint Reduction System

Motorola: Hydro Pico Generator for Mobile Phone BaseStation


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Project Objective To reduce the cost of ILW interim storagefacilities by simplifying the mechanical handling of waste andconsidering different methods of storage

Problems with current method: Increased final volume of waste

containers are still extremelyradioactive

Storage facilities very expensive Solution advantages:

Volume reduction techniques,such as vitrification

Dispense with complicated mechanical

handling systems Less expensive storage facilities

Designed for low cost production

BABCOCK: Nuclear Waste Flask

CurrentILWStorageProcess

Standardisedpackageexterior

Standardisedshieldedlid

VariableSteelshotconcreteshielding

Wasteliner

ProposedShieldedPackage


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BABCOCK: Nuclear Waste Flask

Project

Cost

Time

Largeconstructioncost

ofstoragefacility

Overall

cost

saving

Reduced

initial

cost

ThroughLifeCostofanInterimILWStorageProject

CurrentStorageMethod StorageUsingShieldedContainers

Business case objectives: Prove total cost of ILW interim storage is reduced

Show reduced yearly expenditure, resolving funding issues


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GE AVIATION [DOWTY]: Open Rotors Investigate the feasibility

of adopting open-rotor

layout for 150-200 seat,single-aisle aircraft, EIS

around 2018

A TSFC (fuel burn) dropof 25% must be met or exceeded

The increase in maintenance costs must not exceed the

benefit gained from efficiency improvements

Simple, reliable mechanism for blade pitch change is

required

Then Now.

The Easyjet Ecojet

Jet?


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GE AVIATION [DOWTY]: Open Rotors

No.perEngine

Weightperunit(kg)

WeightperEngine(kg)

DevelopmentCost($)

ProductionCostperunit($)

Costperengine($)

Nacelle 1 200 200 15,600,000 200,000 200,000

EngineCore(basedonexistingtech)

1 2500 2500 318,000,000 5,800,000 5,800,000

HydraulicActuators 18 1.2 21.6 2,000,000 1,500 27,000HydraulicPump 2 10 20 1,800,000 11,500 23,000PropBlades 18 10 180 8,500,000 6,500 117,000ElectricalHarness 1 10 10 350,000 4,000 4,000Transformer 2 130 260 23,400,000 116,000 232,000

SystemIntegrationCosts 122,200,000 745,000Totals 43 3191.6 491,850,000 7,148,000

No.perEngine

Weightperunit(kg)

WeightperEngine(kg)

DevelopmentCost($)

ProductionCostperunit($)

Costperengine($)

Nacelle 1 200 200 15,600,000 200,000 200,000

EngineCore(basedonexistingtech)

1 2500 2500 318,000,000 5,800,000 5,800,000

HydraulicActuators 18 1.2 21.6 2,000,000 1,500 27,000HydraulicPump 2 10 20 1,800,000 11,500 23,000PropBlades 18 10 180 8,500,000 6,500 117,000ElectricalHarness 1 10 10 350,000 4,000 4,000Transformer 2 130 260 23,400,000 116,000 232,000

SystemIntegrationCosts 122,200,000 745,000Totals 43 3191.6 491,850,000 7,148,000

Development (0.8%)

Production (40.5%)

Operating Site (22.5%)

Total Equipment Support

(31.2%)

Total SystemLevel Cost

(5.0%)

GE UDF Engine Program: Life Cycle Cost Allocation

Chartshowingthebreakdownofthelifecyclecostof~$48bil

Model based on best case

of ~400 aircraft orders a

year

Initial engine production

cost estimate of $7.1M

similar to CFM56 list price

of $7.0M


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Many conflicting factors

More civil works more reliable water flow smaller system overall

Complex electronic control higher cost but higher system efficiencies

Simplified turbine runner lower cost but reduced efficiency

Considerations include:

Site Selection

Dam Materials and

Weir Orientation

Turbine Housing

Turbine Runner

Electrical Generator

Battery System

MOTOROLA: Pico-Hydropower

Cost

Performance


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Y0607 Cohort: Completion Y0910 & Y1011 Wind-powered Vehicle design, build and test a vehicle

to carry one person that can drive directly into the wind

Submit entries for Aeolus Competition in the Netherlands

9 isikveren computer aided business case assessment

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