8098 conifer fiscal impact analysis...according to emerald real estate group, the development of...

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Economic & Market Research / Land & Development Planning Landscape Architecture / Community Planning & Design

Golf Feasibility Analysis

CONIFER HEIGHTS FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

CONIFER HEIGHTS

PREPARED FOR: CONIFER RIDGE PROPERTIES, LLC

PREPARED BY:

2953 SOUTH PEORIA STREET, SUITE 101 AURORA, COLORADO 80014

(303) 770-7201 PHONE (303) 770-7132 FAX [email protected]

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Economic & Market Research / Land & Development Planning Landscape Architecture / Community Planning & Design

Golf Feasibility Analysis

CONIFER HEIGHTS FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

PREPARED FOR: CONIFER RIDGE PROPERTIES, LLC

JUNE 27, 2018

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CONIFER HEIGHTS THK ASSOCIATES, INC.

Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 1

I. Introduction ............................................................................................................ 4

II. Site Description ...................................................................................................... 6

III. Retail/Commercial Market Conditions ...............................................................13

A. Retail Market Characteristics .................................................................................13 B. Shopping Center Inventory ...................................................................................15

Aspen Park Village Shopping Center .................................................................17 Conifer Marketplace ........................................................................................18 Conifer Town Center .......................................................................................20 Kings Valley Marketplace .................................................................................21 The Village at Aspen Park ...............................................................................22

IV. Fiscal Impact Analysis .........................................................................................25

A. Annual Property Taxes .........................................................................................26 B. Employment and Wages .......................................................................................28 C. Annual Sales Taxes ..............................................................................................29 D. One-Time Fees ....................................................................................................32 E. Costs to Service Providers .....................................................................................33 F. Summary of Annual Fiscal Impacts ........................................................................34

TABLE OF FIGURES

Denver Metropolitan Area Regional Location ........................................................ 7 Conifer Regional Location ................................................................................... 8 Regional Environs Map ....................................................................................... 9 Subject Site Photos ...........................................................................................10 Conifer Retail Primary Trade Area ......................................................................14 Shopping Center Location Map ...........................................................................16

CONIFER HEIGHTS 1 THK ASSOCIATES, INC.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


CONIFER HEIGHTS ANALYSIS

The purpose of this analysis has been to determine the economic benefits of the Conifer Heights property to Jefferson County under three (3) development scenarios.

¾ As the site sits today, “as is” ¾ The site being developed as currently zoned, “as entitled” ¾ The site being developed with the proposed rezoning, “as proposed”

“As is,” the site is sitting vacant generating only property tax revenue based on the site’s assessed land value. “As entitled,” the site is approved for up to 64 residential households and 40,000 square feet of retail/commercial space. “As proposed,” the site is planned for up to 101 residential units and no retail/commercial space.

SITE CONDITIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

Conifer Heights has excellent road access from U.S. Highway 285, the east-west throughway through Conifer. However, the section of the site approved retail/commercial uses is elevated above U.S. Highway 285, which limits visibility. The topography of the site is hilly, making retaining walls likely for any development, especially structures requiring a large footprint.

Based on the Conifer Height’s location and conditions, it is more appropriately positioned for residential uses than retail/commercial. The site’s hilly terrain is likely to be more costly for retail/commercial development, which will potentially hinder future development. Additionally, the site with increased residential zoning will be attractive to developers looking for attributes such as views, open space and proximity to shopping centers. As such, this analysis assumes Conifer Heights will have no retail/commercial development.

SUMMARY OF FISCAL IMPACTS

The present value of net annual fiscal impacts, which includes property taxes, sales taxes and costs to serve, “As Is” is projected at $11,411, “As Entitled” is forecast at $65,342 and “As Proposed” is projected at $99,159.

One-time fees are estimated to be $11,072 per new home built, and include building permit fees, plan review fees, park fees, use taxes and traffic impact fees. As such, additional revenue generated “As Is” is $0, “As Entitled” is $708,608 and “As Proposed” is $1,118,272.

"As Is" "As Entitled" "As Proposed"

Present Value of Net Annual Fiscal Impacts $11,411 $65,342 $99,159One-Time Fees $0 $708,608 $1,118,272

Summary of Jefferson County Fiscal Impacts

Source: THK Associates, Inc.

After researching and examining the revenues and expenses for each development scenario, Conifer Heights “As Proposed” with 101 residential units and no retail/commercial space is forecast to generate the greatest positive fiscal impact to Jefferson County.


I. INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION


I. Introduction The purpose of this analysis is to determine the economic benefits of the Conifer Heights property to Jefferson County, Colorado. Research includes an analysis of current retail/commercial market conditions, and fiscal impact analysis detailing potential future revenues and costs to Jefferson County.

Retail/Commercial Market Conditions

In order to assess the nature and performance of the retail/commercial market in the Conifer environs, a retail market conditions assessment of existing retail centers in the Conifer environs was undertaken. Retail centers throughout Conifer were inventoried. This data includes:

x Location x Center size x Number of tenants and tenant name x Vacant square feet x Lease rates

A detailed overview of the retail space in Conifer is presented in Section III of this report. THK researched and inventoried retail centers throughout the Conifer environs to understand the competitive market.

Market Values, Assessed Values, Sales Taxes and Other Revenues

The next phase of the analysis is to compare the potential revenues from the vacant site (“as is” scenario) versus current approvals for 64 homes and 40,000 square feet of commercial uses (“as entitled” scenario) versus the proposed land use of 101 homes (“as proposed” scenario). THK is confident the additional residences provide significant incomes to the immediate area and support for the struggling retail/commercial market. To illustrate these impacts THK researched and detailed the following:

x Current property taxes and revenues realized from the Conifer Heights property x The average value for the proposed residences x The value of retail/commercial space x The total market and assessed value for each scenario x Annual property taxes to Jefferson County and other service providers x One-time fees and revenues x Permanent and temporary jobs/wages created x On-site sales taxes x Average household income x Portion of household income spent on retail goods and services x Dollar volume of retail sales from the 101 homes versus the 64 homes and the portion

spent in Conifer x Additional expenses to serve the Conifer Heights community

These revenue sources are projected over the next twenty years. The report concludes with a comparison of the “as is” status with virtually no revenues, the “as entitled” scenario and the “as proposed” scenario.


II. SITE DESCRIPTION

SITE DESCRIPTION


II. Site Description

REGIONAL AND SITE DESCRIPTION

Conifer Heights, referred to as the subject site, is located at 10250 County Highway 73 in Conifer, an unincorporated community in Jefferson County, Colorado. Conifer is approximately 20 miles southwest of downtown Denver. The subject site will be accessed via County Highway 73 to the east and U.S. Highway 285 to the west. Traveling north, County Highway 73 connects to Evergreen and Interstate 70. Traveling east, U.S. Highway 285 connects to C-470 and Denver Metropolitan Area. Sparsely populated rural mountainous areas are to the south and west.

The subject site is 25.39 acres. Located 0.2 miles south of the subject site is Conifer Town Center. The retail shopping center is anchored by Safeway. Additionally, Conifer Town Center has three pad sites totaling approximately 4.8 acres sitting vacant. Located 0.4 miles west of the subject site is Conifer High School.

SITE CONDITIONS

The subject site has excellent road access from U.S. Highway 285, the east-west throughway through Conifer. However, the section of the site approved retail/commercial uses is elevated above U.S. Highway 285, which limits visibility. The topography of the site is hilly, making retaining walls likely for any development, especially structures requiring a large footprint. Current zoning allows for up to 64 homes and 40,000 square feet of retail/commercial uses. The proposed rezoning of the site would allow for up to 101 homes with no retail/commercial uses.

SITE OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

Based on the subject site’s location and conditions, it is more appropriately positioned for residential uses than retail/commercial. The site’s hilly terrain is likely to be more costly for retail/commercial development, which will potentially hinder future development. Additionally, the site with increased residential zoning will be attractive to developers looking for attributes such as views, open space and proximity to shopping centers. As such, this analysis assumes Conifer Heights will have no retail/commercial development.

Area maps, aerials and site photos are shown on the following pages.

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III. RETAIL/COMMERCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS

RETAIL/COMMERCIAL MARKET CONDITIONS


III. Retail/Commercial Market Conditions

A. RETAIL MARKET CHARACTERISTICS

To better understand the retail market conditions in Conifer, THK interviewed area brokers. Emerald Real Estate Group formerly owned Aspen Park Village Shopping Center in Conifer. According to Emerald Real Estate Group, the development of Conifer Town Center significantly increased area vacancy to their shopping center. In 2016, the company sold Aspen Park Village Shopping Center at a loss due to being 25% vacant. Today, the property is approximately 35% vacant.

According to Evergreen Commercial Group, which manages Kings Valley Marketplace, the Conifer retail market has a 10% to 15% vacancy rate. Conifer is oversupplied as area shopping centers, such as Conifer Town Center, Aspen Park Village and Kings Valley Marketplace are still leasing up. With the oversupply, Evergreen Commercial Group would consider a 12% vacancy rate for a retail property as reaching stabilization.

Based on conversations with area brokers, coupled with THK’s experience from previous fiscal impact studies in western Jefferson County, THK has identified the primary trade area (PTA) for Conifer Heights to be an approximate ten minute drive time from the site along the U.S. Highway 285 corridor. This PTA is illustrated on the following page and represents the area retail competition is likely to be from.

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B. SHOPPING CENTER INVENTORY

To determine retail vacancy within the subject site’s retail trade area, THK surveyed the area’s five largest retail shopping centers. The table below summarizes the vacant retail space at these five retail shopping centers. Aspen Park Village Shopping Center, Conifer Marketplace, Conifer Town Center, Kings Valley Marketplace and The Villages at Aspen Park combined have 471,416 square feet of retail space within Conifer. Of the 471,416 square feet of combined retail space, 13.8% or 65,183 square feet is currently sitting vacant. Additionally, this vacant square footage does not include graded pad sites at these shopping centers that are listed for sale.

Shopping Center Address Vacancy %1 Aspen Park Village Shopping Center 25797 Conifer Road 1985/2007 49,207 17,222 35.0% --- ---2 Conifer Marketplace 10853-10903 U.S. Highway 285 1984/2007 131,638 13,397 10.2% $10.00 - $10.003 Conifer Town Center 27152 Main Street 2006 107,451 9,136 8.5% $12.00 - $16.004 Kings Valley Marketplace 30403 Kings Valley Drive 2009 30,000 11,700 39.0% $11.00 - $15.005 The Village at Aspen Park 25637 Conifer Road 2006 153,120 13,728 9.0% --- ---

Total 471,416 65,183 13.8% $10.00 - $16.00

* Retail building square footage based on broker information, which may vary slightly from assessor

Table: III-1: Inventory of Largest Shopping Centers In Conifer PTA


Total Retail SqFt*

Vacant Retail SqFt

Year Built/Renovated

Lease Ratesper SqFt**

** Lease rates are based on triple net

The following pages detail the five surveyed retail shopping centers. There are no new retail shopping centers planned within the Conifer Retail PTA. However, graded pad sites within existing shopping centers, such as Conifer Town Center and The Village at Aspen Park are listed for sale.

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ASPEN PARK VILLAGE SHOPPING CENTER

Aspen Park Village Shopping Center is located at 25797 Conifer Road in Conifer. The shopping center was built in 1985 and underwent a full exterior renovation in 2007. The center has 14 tenants and is anchored by Stagedoor Theatre. The shopping center has 49,207 square feet of retail space, of which approximately 35.0% or 17,222 square feet is currently vacant.



CONIFER MARKETPLACE

Conifer Marketplace is located at 10853 U.S. Highway 285 in Conifer. The shopping center was built in 1985 and renovated in 2007. The shopping center has 20 tenants and is anchored by Staples. Other notable tenants include O’Reilly Auto Parts, Anytime Fitness, Sano Hospital for Animals and 3 Margaritas Mexican Restaurant. The shopping center has 131,638 square feet of retail space, of which 13,397 square feet or 10.2% is currently vacant.

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CONIFER TOWN CENTER

Conifer Town Center was built in 2006 and is located at 27152 Main Street in Conifer. The shopping center has 14 tenants and is anchored by Safeway. The shopping center has 107,451 square feet of retail space, of which 9,136 square feet or 8.5% is currently vacant.



KINGS VALLEY MARKETPLACE

Kings Valley Marketplace was built in 2009 and is located at 30403 Kings Valley Drive in Conifer. The shopping center is two stories with 55,300 square feet. The ground floor is used for retail and consists of approximately 30,000 square feet, while the second floor is used for office space and is approximately 25,300 square feet. The retail floor has five tenants and is anchored by King’s Emporium, and Kings Valley Wine and Liquor. Other tenants include Dynamic Fitness, Leader One and Hemp Collective. Of the 30,000 square feet used for retail, 11,700 square feet or 39.0% is currently vacant.



THE VILLAGE AT ASPEN PARK

The Village at Aspen Park was built in 2006 and is located at 25637 Conifer Road in Conifer. The shopping center has 21 tenants and is anchored by King Soopers. Other notable tenants include Big R Stores, Qdoba Mexican Grill, REMax, and Biggie Wine and Liquors. The shopping center has 153,120 square feet of retail space, of which 13,728 square feet or 9.0% is currently vacant.

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IV. FISCAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

FISCAL ANALYSIS


IV. Fiscal Impact Analysis

The rezoning and development of the subject site should have positive impacts on Jefferson County and area service providers. Revenues from the development will primarily come from property taxes. To quantify additional revenues and expenses generated from the proposed rezoning, THK researched and examined the following with the subject site:

¾ Annual property taxes ¾ Potential employment ¾ Estimated wages from potential employment ¾ Annual sales taxes ¾ Estimated one-time fees ¾ Costs to serve

The revenues and expenses outlined above were researched for the subject site for three scenarios. (1) As the site sits today, “as is.” (2) The site being developed as currently zoned, “as entitled.” (3) The site being developed with the proposed rezoning, “as proposed.”

FISCAL ANALYSIS


A. ANNUAL PROPERTY TAXES

Property taxes are a major source of revenue to area service providers, including Jefferson County. The 2018 property taxes to these service providers are detailed below (Table IV-1). The applicable property taxes for this fiscal impact analysis going to Jefferson County include the Jefferson County General Fund, Jefferson County Department of Social Services, Jefferson County Library Fund, Jefferson County Road & Bridge Fund, and Law Enforcement Authority. Combined, these service providers collect a mill levy rate of 23.296.

Currently, under the “as is” scenario, the 25.39 acre subject site is vacant and generates $777 in annual property taxes that are applicable to Jefferson County (See Table IV-2 for detail). Over the next 20 years, total property tax revenue is projected to be $18,908.

Development plans for the site “as entitled” call for up to 64 residential units and 40,000 square feet of retail/commercial uses, and “as proposed” call for up to 101 residential units. THK estimates a median home sales price of $400,000. Within Jefferson County, homes are assessed at 7.2% of appraised value, indicating each home would have an approximate assessed value of $28,800.

Under the “as entitled” scenario, THK projects over the next 20 years the site to generate $981,298 in property taxes to Jefferson County. As discussed previously in the site description, THK does not project increased property taxes from future retail/commercial uses due to development constraints from the site’s hilly terrain coupled with the trade area’s oversupply of retail space.

Under the “as proposed” scenario, THK projects over the next 20 years the site to generate $1,512,680 in property taxes to Jefferson County.

Service Provider Mill Levy4.55038.328

Jefferson County Capital Expenditures 0.828Jefferson County Contingent Fund 0.003Jefferson County General Fund* 14.165

1.2021.0004.000

Jefferson County Road & Bridge Fund* 1.2227.4582.707

Total 75.463

Elk Creek Fire DistrictLaw Enforcement Authority*

Table IV-1: Conifer Heights Service Providers and Property Tax Rate

Source: Jefferson County Treasurer

R-1 School District Bond Redemption FundR-1 School District General Fund

Jefferson County Department of Social Services*Jefferson County Developmental Disability FundJefferson County Library Fund*

* Applicable Jefferson County Property Taxes

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Annual Inflation$252.53

$252.53$252.53

2.0%

Year 12019

0$777

0$777

0$777

Year 22020

0$793

35$23,952

35$23,952

Year 32021

0$809

64$44,674

70$48,862

Year 42022

0$825

64$45,567

101$71,911

Year 52023

0$842

64$46,479

101$73,349

Year 62024

0$859

64$47,408

101$74,816

Year 72025

0$876

64$48,356

101$76,313

Year 82026

0$894

64$49,324

101$77,839

Year 92027

0$912

64$50,310

101$79,396

Year 102028

0$930

64$51,316

101$80,984

Year 112029

0$949

64$52,343

101$82,603

Year 122030

0$968

64$53,389

101$84,255

Year 132031

0$987

64$54,457

101$85,940

Year 142032

0$1,007

64$55,546

101$87,659

Year 152033

0$1,027

64$56,657

101$89,412

Year 162034

0$1,048

64$57,790

101$91,201

Year 172035

0$1,069

64$58,946

101$93,025

Year 182036

0$1,090

64$60,125

101$94,885

Year 192037

0$1,112

64$61,328

101$96,783

Year 202038

0$1,134

64$62,554

101$98,718

$18,908$981,298

$1,512,680

ApplicableProperty Taxes

(23.296 Mill Levy)*Projected

Households


(23.296 Mill Levy)*Projected

Households

Source: Jefferson County Treasurer and THK Associates, Inc.

Projected Households


(23.296 Mill Levy)*

Total Property Tax Revenue (2019 - 2038)

* Assumes 2.0% Annual Inflation

Table IV-2: Potential Sales Tax Revenue From Retail Development

Property TaxesWith Site

"As Is" Vacant

Projected PropertyTaxes With Site

"As Entitled"

Projected PropertyTaxes With Site"As Proposed"

FISCAL ANALYSIS


B. EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES

The subject site with only residential development will not generate direct permanent employment. However, the subject site will create temporary construction jobs. The temporary construction employment estimate is based on approximately 1.33 full-time employees per home built over the entire construction time period. With an average annual wage of $40,000 per construction worker, the development of the subject site would generate $2,266,667 in wages from temporary employment under the “as entitled” scenario and $3,573,333 in wages under the “as proposed” scenario (See Table IV-3 for detail).

"As Is" "As Entitled" "As Proposed"

Homes 0 64 101

Estimated Employment (1.33 FTE per Home) 0 85 134

Estimated Annual Average Wage per Worker $40,000 $40,000 $40,000

Estimated Total Annual Wages $0 $3,400,000 $5,360,000

Projected Construction Time Period per Home (Months) 8 8 8

Estimated Total Construction Wages Over Life Of Project $0 $2,266,667 $3,573,333

Source: BLS and THK Associates, Inc.

Table IV-3: Estimated Temporary Employment and Wage Generation

FISCAL ANALYSIS


C. ANNUAL SALES TAXES

As the subject site continues to sit vacant “as is,” sales tax revenue to Jefferson County is $0.

Sales tax revenue will be generated from residents of the homes built under both the “as entitled” and “as proposed” scenarios. Within the primary trade area (previously illustrated by Figure 5), the median household income is $97,230.

Over the next 20 years, the site “as entitled” with 64 households is projected to have combined household incomes of $142,098,261 (See Table IV-4 for detail). An estimated 22% of total household income is expected to go to taxes, with the remaining 78% considered disposable income. Of the projected disposable income, 52% is expected to go to various housing, transportation, savings, medical and/or education expenses. The remaining 48% of disposable income is considered to be available for retail spending. THK estimates that approximately 40% of the disposable income from the added residential households will be spent in Jefferson County. Therefore, with the site “as entitled”, Jefferson County retail sales tax revenues from the added residential households are projected to be $106,405 over the next 20 years.

The site “as proposed” is expected to have 101 households, which are forecast to generate $219,106,145 in total household incomes over the next 20 years (See Table IV-5 for detail). THK again estimates that approximately 40% of the disposable income from the added residential households will be spent in Jefferson County. Therefore, with the site “as proposed”, Jefferson County retail sales tax revenues from the added residential households are projected to be $164,069 over the next 20 years.

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Annual Inflation78.0%

48.0%40.0%

0.5%2.0%

Year 12019

0$97,230

$0$0

$0$0

$0Year 2

202035

$99,175$3,471,125

$2,707,478$1,299,589

$519,836$2,599

Year 32021

64$101,159

$6,474,176$5,049,857

$2,423,931$969,572

$4,848Year 4

202264

$103,182$6,603,648

$5,150,845$2,472,406

$988,962$4,945

Year 52023

64$105,246

$6,735,744$5,253,880

$2,521,862$1,008,745

$5,044Year 6

202464

$107,351$6,870,464

$5,358,962$2,572,302

$1,028,921$5,145

Year 72025

64$109,498

$7,007,872$5,466,140

$2,623,747$1,049,499

$5,247Year 8

202664

$111,688$7,148,032

$5,575,465$2,676,223

$1,070,489$5,352

Year 92027

64$113,922

$7,291,008$5,686,986

$2,729,753$1,091,901

$5,460Year 10

202864

$116,200$7,436,800

$5,800,704$2,784,338

$1,113,735$5,569

Year 112029

64$118,524

$7,585,536$5,916,718

$2,840,025$1,136,010

$5,680Year 12

203064

$120,894$7,737,216

$6,035,028$2,896,813

$1,158,725$5,794

Year 132031

64$123,312

$7,891,968$6,155,735

$2,954,753$1,181,901

$5,910Year 14

203264

$125,778$8,049,792

$6,278,838$3,013,842

$1,205,537$6,028

Year 152033

64$128,294

$8,210,816$6,404,436

$3,074,129$1,229,652

$6,148Year 16

203464

$130,860$8,375,040

$6,532,531$3,135,615

$1,254,246$6,271

Year 172035

64$133,477

$8,542,528$6,663,172

$3,198,323$1,279,329

$6,397Year 18

203664

$136,147$8,713,408

$6,796,458$3,262,300

$1,304,920$6,525

Year 192037

64$138,870

$8,887,680$6,932,390

$3,327,547$1,331,019

$6,655Year 20

203864

$141,647$9,065,408

$7,071,018$3,394,089

$1,357,636$6,788

$142,098,261$110,836,641

$53,201,587$21,280,635

$106,405

Table IV-4: Summary of Potential Sales Tax Revenue From Site "As Entitled"

Projected Households

Total

MedianHousehold Income

TotalHousehold Income

Estimated Spending InJefferson County (40%

)Jefferson County

Sales Tax Revenue (0.5%)

Disposable IncomeAvailable For Retail (48%

)Disposable

Income (78%)


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Annual Inflation78.0%

48.0%40.0%

0.5%2.0%

Year 12019

0$97,230

$0$0

$0$0

$0Year 2

202035

$99,175$3,471,125

$2,707,478$1,299,589

$519,836$2,599

Year 32021

70$101,159

$7,081,130$5,523,281

$2,651,175$1,060,470

$5,302Year 4

2022101

$103,182$10,421,382

$8,128,678$3,901,765

$1,560,706$7,804

Year 52023

101$105,246

$10,629,846$8,291,280

$3,979,814$1,591,926

$7,960Year 6

2024101

$107,351$10,842,451

$8,457,112$4,059,414

$1,623,766$8,119

Year 72025

101$109,498

$11,059,298$8,626,252

$4,140,601$1,656,240

$8,281Year 8

2026101

$111,688$11,280,488

$8,798,781$4,223,415

$1,689,366$8,447

Year 92027

101$113,922

$11,506,122$8,974,775

$4,307,892$1,723,157

$8,616Year 10

2028101

$116,200$11,736,200

$9,154,236$4,394,033

$1,757,613$8,788

Year 112029

101$118,524

$11,970,924$9,337,321

$4,481,914$1,792,766

$8,964Year 12

2030101

$120,894$12,210,294

$9,524,029$4,571,534

$1,828,614$9,143

Year 142032

101$125,778

$12,703,578$9,908,791

$4,756,220$1,902,488

$9,512Year 15

2033101

$128,294$12,957,694

$10,107,001$4,851,360

$1,940,544$9,703

Year 172035

101$133,477

$13,481,177$10,515,318

$5,047,353$2,018,941

$10,095Year 18

2036101

$136,147$13,750,847

$10,725,661$5,148,317

$2,059,327$10,297

Year 192037

101$138,870

$14,025,870$10,940,179

$5,251,286$2,100,514

$10,503Year 20

2038101

$141,647$14,306,347

$11,158,951$5,356,296

$2,142,518$10,713

$219,106,145$170,902,794

$82,033,339$32,813,337

$164,069Total

Source: THK Associates, Inc. Projected Households

Table IV-5: Summary of Potential Sales Tax Revenue From Site "As Proposed"

MedianHousehold Income

TotalHousehold Income

DisposableIncome (78%

)Disposable Income

Available For Retail (48%)

Estimated Spending InJefferson County (40%

)Jefferson County

Sales Tax Revenue (0.5%)

FISCAL ANALYSIS


D. ONE-TIME FEES

With the development of the subject site, Jefferson County will also benefit from one-time fees, which are estimated to total $11,072 per new home built. The estimated one-time fees, which are detailed below, are based on construction costs of $325,000 per home.

Fee Per Home0 64 101

Building Permit Fee $2,602 $0 $166,528 $262,802Plan Review Fee $1,691 $0 $108,224 $170,791Park Fee $3,500 $0 $224,000 $353,500Use Tax $813 $0 $52,032 $82,113Traffic Impact Fees $2,466 $0 $157,824 $249,066

Total One-Time Fees* $11,072 $0 $708,608 $1,118,272

Source: Jefferson County Planning and Zoning Division

Table IV-6: Jefferson County One-Time Fees

With Site"As Is" Vacant

With Site"As Entitled"

With Site"As Proposed"

* One-time fees are based on $325,000 in construction costs per home

FISCAL ANALYSIS


E. COSTS TO SERVICE PROVIDERS

To estimate the cost to serve to Jefferson County with the development of Conifer Heights, THK reviewed Jefferson County’s adopted budget and identified expenditures that are likely be impacted. As detailed by the table below, THK estimates the cost to serve in Jefferson County at $668 per household.

Expenditure Amount*

Patrol Fund $31,108,000Road & Bridge Fund $23,447,800Social Services Fund $50,476,100Solid Waste Disposal & Facility Fund $136,600Public Health Fund $16,047,400Library Fund $36,367,100

Total $157,583,000Jefferson County Households 235,728Cost To Serve per Household $668

Table IV-7: Jefferson County Costs To Service Providers

Source: 2018 Jefferson County Adopted Budget and THK Associates, Inc.

* Costs to service providers exclude Capital Projects and Equipment, Intergovernmental and Interdepartmental expenses

FISCAL ANALYSIS


F. SUMMARY OF ANNUAL FISCAL IMPACTS

Table IV-8 on the following page details the subject site’s annual fiscal impacts for each scenario over the next 20 years.

“As Is” vacant, the present value of net fiscal impacts at 5% is $11,411. Under this scenario, all revenue is generated from property taxes with no costs to serve.

“As entitled,” the present value of net fiscal impacts at 5% is $65,342. Under this scenario, $633,508 in revenues is projected from property and sales taxes, with the costs to serve estimated at $568,168.

“As proposed,” the present value of net fiscal impacts at 5% is $99,159. Under this scenario, $964,686 in revenues is projected from property and sales taxes, with the costs to serve estimated at $865,527.

FISC

AL A

NA

LYSIS

CO

NIFER

HEIG

HTS

35

THK

ASSO

CIATES, IN

C.

Year 12019

$777$0

$0$777

$777$0

$0$777

$777$0

$0$777

Year 22020

$793$0

$0$793

$23,952$2,599

-$23,835$2,716

$23,952$2,599

-$23,835$2,716

Year 32021

$809$0

$0$809

$44,674$4,848

-$44,480$5,042

$48,862$5,302

-$48,650$5,514

Year 42022

$825$0

$0$825

$45,567$4,945

-$45,376$5,136

$71,911$7,804

-$71,609$8,106

Year 52023

$842$0

$0$842

$46,479$5,044

-$46,272$5,251

$73,349$7,960

-$73,023$8,286

Year 62024

$859$0

$0$859

$47,408$5,145

-$47,168$5,385

$74,816$8,119

-$74,437$8,498

Year 72025

$876$0

$0$876

$48,356$5,247

-$48,128$5,475

$76,313$8,281

-$75,952$8,642

Year 82026

$894$0

$0$894

$49,324$5,352

-$49,088$5,588

$77,839$8,447

-$77,467$8,819

Year 92027

$912$0

$0$912

$50,310$5,460

-$50,048$5,722

$79,396$8,616

-$78,982$9,030

Year 102028

$930$0

$0$930

$51,316$5,569

-$51,072$5,813

$80,984$8,788

-$80,598$9,174

Year 112029

$949$0

$0$949

$52,343$5,680

-$52,096$5,927

$82,603$8,964

-$82,214$9,353

Year 122030

$968$0

$0$968

$53,389$5,794

-$53,120$6,063

$84,255$9,143

-$83,830$9,568

Year 132031

$987$0

$0$987

$54,457$5,910

-$54,208$6,159

$85,940$9,326

-$85,547$9,719

Year 142032

$1,007$0

$0$1,007

$55,546$6,028

-$55,296$6,278

$87,659$9,512

-$87,264$9,907

Year 152033

$1,027$0

$0$1,027

$56,657$6,148

-$56,384$6,421

$89,412$9,703

-$88,981$10,134

Year 162034

$1,048$0

$0$1,048

$57,790$6,271

-$57,536$6,525

$91,201$9,897

-$90,799$10,299

Year 172035

$1,069$0

$0$1,069

$58,946$6,397

-$58,688$6,655

$93,025$10,095

-$92,617$10,503

Year 182036

$1,090$0

$0$1,090

$60,125$6,525

-$59,840$6,810

$94,885$10,297

-$94,435$10,747

Year 192037

$1,112$0

$0$1,112

$61,328$6,655

-$61,056$6,927

$96,783$10,503

-$96,354$10,932

Year 202038

$1,134$0

$0$1,134

$62,554$6,788

-$62,272$7,070

$98,718$10,713

-$98,273$11,158

$11,411$0

$0$11,411

$571,563$61,945

-$568,166$65,342

$870,321$94,365

-$865,527$99,159

2.0%

Table IV-8: Summary of Jefferson County Annual Fiscal Impacts

$11,411$65,342

$99,159

Costs ToServe*

Property TaxRevenue*

Sales TaxRevenue*

Net FiscalImpact

"As Is" Vacant"As Entitled"

"As Proposed"

Net FiscalImpact

Net FiscalImpact

* Assumes 2.0% Annual Inflation

Present Value at 5%

Present Value ofNet Fiscal Impacts


Sales TaxRevenue*

Costs ToServe*

Costs ToServe*


Sales TaxRevenue*


.

End of Report

Prepared by:

2953 South Peoria Street, Suite 101 Aurora, Colorado 80014 (303) 770-7201 phone

(303) 770-7132 fax [email protected]

8098 conifer fiscal impact analysis...according to emerald real estate group, the development of...

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