8: the 20th century economy w15 –an overvie h1.pdf1. age of catastrophe §“a world economic...

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2019–20

ECON2547Economic HistoryJohn Powell

8: The 20th Century economyw15 – an overview

for detailed reference list seewww.economicstoolbox.com

ECON2547 Economic History • 2019-20 2

Reading

§ Hobsbawm (1994)§ Crafts in Floud et al (2014) – vol 2§ Rijpma in van Zanden et al (2014)

See economicstoolbox.com



Outline and learning outcomes§ Introduction: how long was the 20th century?

• Identify discrete eras within the period§ Global progress in well-being

• Examine historical change in quality of life, exploring regional variation and causal elements

§ Review

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Introduction

How long was the Twentieth Century?§ Hobsbawm (1994) makes a case for a ‘short’

Twentieth Century, reflecting an identifiable period in (economic) history

§ Follows what Hobsbawm has characterised as the ‘long’ 19th century (1780s–1914)


1914–1947

Age of catastrophe

1947–1973

Golden age

1973–1989

Uncertainty and crisis

WW1:“marked the breakdown of the (western) civilization of the nineteenth century” (1994:6)

the collapse of the Soviet Union, marked by the fall of the Berlin Wall

cf Crafts (2014)

Hobsbawm’s short 20th century


1. Age of catastrophe§ “a world economic crisis of unprecedented depth

brought even the strongest capitalist economies to their knees” (Hobsbawm, 1994:7) and saw much of the colonial empires disaggregate.– “…seemed to reverse the creation of a

single universal world economy which had been so remarkable an achievement of nineteenth-century liberal capitalism” (ibid)

– 1930s–1940s “forms the hinge of twentieth-century history” (ibid) Rise of fascism

1914–1947

Age of catastrophe

Hobsbawm’s short 20th century


The ‘Golden Age’§ “…probably changed human society more profoundly

than any other period of comparable brevity” (Hobsbawm, 1994:7) [cf Rijpma, 2014]– “…extraordinary scale and impact of the

consequent economic, social and cultural transformation” (ibid:8) following WW2

– The irony, for Britain, was that the ‘Golden Age’ also marked its relative decline, especially against other European economies (eg see Crafts, 2014:45)

1914–1947

Age of catastrophe

1947–1973

Golden ageBretton Woods institutions

Growth of public sector

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Hobsbawm’s short 20th century [p]


Uncertainty and crisis§ “crisis decades” of the 1970s and 1980s (into the

early 1990s) (Hobsbawm, 1994:10)– “the capitalist world once again finding itself

staggering under the burdens of the inter-war years, which the Golden Age appeared to have removed: mass unemployment, severe cyclical slumps…” (ibid) – see Lindsay (2003)

– socialist states driven to breakdown § Hobsbawm does admit his own perspective was

perhaps too close to these events to make longer term judgments (again cf Crafts)

1914–1947

Age of catastrophe

1947–1973

Golden age

1973–1989


see Edgar, 2014

Hobsbawm’s short 20th century [p]


Uncertainty and crisis§ “crisis decades” of the 1970s and 1980s (into the

early 1990s) (Hobsbawm, 1994:10)– “the capitalist world once again finding itself

staggering under the burdens of the inter-war years, which the Golden Age appeared to have removed: mass unemployment, severe cyclical slumps…” (ibid)

– socialist states driven to breakdown § Hobsbawm does admit his own perspective was

perhaps too close to these events to make longer term judgments (again cf Crafts)

1914–1947

Age of catastrophe

1947–1973

Golden age

1973–1989


see Edgar, 2014

Lindsay (2003)

Global progress

§ In the 20th century “more human beings had been killed or allowed to die by human decision than ever before in history” (Hobsbawm, 1994:12)– Yet there was evidently substantial progress

in the quality of human lifeGlobal well-being§ The OECD study uses a composite

well-being indicator, rather than usejust GDP per capita (Rijpma, 2014)

§ This included a variety of other indicators (2014:257)

§ Which ones are likely to be causal and which are outcomes?


• Real wages• Height• Life expectancy• Average years of

education• Income inequality• Polity• Biodiversity• Homicide rate

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Global well-being (Rijpma, 2014)§ “Throughout the period, the composite indicator

was highest in the Western Offshoots” (ibid:258)§ Substantial progress

elsewhere (with exception ofworst-performing regionstoday: Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia)

§ East Asia and Eastern Europe / former Soviet Union ranked 3rd and 4th, after WO and Western Europe by end of century

Global progress [print]


SSA

SEA

WOWEEAEEGlobal

Global progress [print]

Global well-being (Rijpma, 2014:265)


Review

§ There is general agreement about the existence of multiple discrete eras that characterise the twentieth century, though less so on the aggregation of these eras into a ‘century’

§ Despite the unprecedented levels of destruction and death in this period, it is also evident that the quality of life, at least at a general level, improved substantially over the twentieth century for most, but relative differences persist (and have been widening – cf Thomas Piketty’s work on inequality – week 20/21 lectures & labs)

§ next: Britain’s relative performance in the 20th C.§ w16/17 seminars – case study in financial crisis


8: the 20th century economy w15 –an overvie h1.pdf1. age of catastrophe §“a world economic...

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