8. leonam guimaraes nuclear energy in brazil.ppt · power: 1.350 mw technology: siemens/kwu...
TRANSCRIPT
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Leonam dos Santos Guimarães, October 15, 2012
CYTED-UNECE
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It keeps being successful,
but there is still more to know
There is a Brazil that many people know
Football Carnival CoffeeAmazon forest
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another Brazil that you must know
Innovation, technology,competitivenessand productivity
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including the Brazilian Nuclear Industry
A synergic mix of:•large uranium reserves•fuel cycle technology•PWR technology•Non-proliferation
Mining& Milling Conversion Enrichment UO2 powder Pellets Fuel
ElementsPower
Generation
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Population 192 million 5th
Surface 8.5 million km2 5th
GDP US$ 1.98 trillion 8th
GDP/capta US$ 10,300/inh 77th
HDI 0.807 70th
Electric installed capacity 102.6 GW 9th
electricity production/year 500 TWh 10th
electricity consumption/capta 2,400 kWh/inh 90th
BRAZILGENERAL DATA
National Interconnected System
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BRAZILGENERAL DATA
7th GDP PPP6th GDP nominal
2011
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FORECASTS 2020Population and GDP per capita
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Fonte: Lighting the way, InterAcademy Council, 2007
BRAZIL: 90th place
BRAZIL: 69th place
HDI X ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
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HDI X ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
Gross Electric Generation
Consumption per capita
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FORECASTS 2020Energy and electricity consumption
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FORECASTS 2020Energy and electricity consumption
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ENERGY SUPPLY MATRIXWORLD x BRAZIL (%)
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CO2 emissions avoided in Brazil
HYDRO POWER: 1.677 million tons
BIO ETHANOL:165 million tons
NUCLEAR POWER: 63 million tons
38%
2000 – 2006
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ENERGY SUPPLY MATRIXWORLD x BRAZIL (%)
ENERGY SECTOR CARBON EMISSIONS (*)SOME COUNTRIES AND REGIONS (2008) - (tCO2/toe)
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ENERGY SUPPLY MATRIXFORECASTS 2020
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TOP 15 WORLD ELECTRIC GENERATORS BRAZIL IS ONE OF THE MAIN WORLD ELECTRICITY PRODUCERS
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000
Billion kilowatts.hour
USA
China
Japan
Russia
Canada
Índia
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Brazil
South Korea
Italy
Spain
Australia
South Africa
Hydro Nuclear Renewables Thermal
source: International Energy Annual 2003
Brazil: 10a place
In a world electric generationdominated by fossil fuels
Brasil is an unique exemple of
RENEWABILITY
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TOP 15 WORLD HYDRO GENERATORS GREATEST CONTRIBUTION OF HYDRO POWER
0 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000
Canada
Brasil
China
USA
Russia
Norway
Japan
Sweden
Índia
France
Venezuela
Paraguay
Áustria
Italy
Argentina
Hydro Nuclear Renewables Thermal
Brasil: 2a place60%
83%17%
7%
21%
99%8%
47%
11%
11%
67%
100%64%
15%
44%
Only Norway and Paraguay have arelative contribution of hydro power
greater than Brazil
Billion kilowatts.hour
source: International Energy Annual 2003
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ELECTRICITY SUPPLY MATRIXWORLD x BRAZIL (%)
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HYDROPOWER REQUIRES SYSTEM INTEGRATIONHAVING CONTINENTAL DIMENSIONS EQUIVALENT TO EUROPE
Rio de Janeiro
Recife
Manaus
Brasília
São PauloItaipu
Porto Alegre
Fortaleza
SalvadorBelo
Horizonte
AngraNPPs
4.000 km4.000 km
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ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION IN THE 90´sNEED FOR THERMAL REGULATION
installed hydro capacityincreasing …
… but without aproportional increase in
the water stock
Installed Hydropower
Reservoir capacity
Stor
age
in G
W m
ean
MW
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ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTIONNEED FOR THERMAL REGULATION
root cause of 2001 supply crisis
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
jan/99 jan/00 jan/01 jan/02 jan/03
GW
mon
th
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
% w
ater
sto
rage
Water stock River flow Generated
Water stock
River flow
Generated
CRISIS
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ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION IN THE 90´sNEED FOR THERMAL REGULATION
RELATIONSHIPRESERVOIR CAPACITY /
TOTAL CHARGE – THERMAL GENERATION
Mainly due to charge reduction(and an increase thermal generation)
2001
SUPPLY
CRISE
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ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION IN THE 90´s“DAM CULTURE” CHANGE
small reservoirsto avoid floodinglarge surfaces
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ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION IN THE 90´s“DAM CULTURE” CHANGE
AHE Rio Madeira
Madeir
a Rive
r
AHE Santo Antônio
AHE Jirau
BOLIVIA AHE Belo Monte
Rio X
ingu
Project AHE BELO MONTE 11.000 MWProject AHE MADEIRA 6.500 MW
This tendency will beamplificated by new projects
in Amazon Bassin•Current average hydro capacity factor: 55%•Future average Amazon hydro capacity factor: 20-25%
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ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION IN THE 90´sNEED FOR THERMAL REGULATION
more nuclear could help me! 0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Nuclear Gás Carvão Óleo Biomassa
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ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION IN THE 90´sNEED FOR THERMAL REGULATION
The main thermal fuels
avaliable in the country
1. Coal2. Biomass3. Natural Gas4. Crude Oil 5. Uranium
BRAZILIAN THERMAL OPTIONS
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ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTION IN THE 90´sNEED FOR THERMAL REGULATION
R$ 0,00
R$ 100,00
R$ 200,00
R$ 300,00
R$ 400,00
R$ 500,00
R$ 600,00
R$ 700,00
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Capacity Factor (%)
Cos
ts (R
$/M
Wh)
Gas Fuel OilDiesel Biomass
Coal Nuclear
• There will be a place for all thermal options– Minimum cost
according capacity factor range
• But costs are not the only decision factor: Price volatility Assurance of supply
must be considered too
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BRAZILIAN NUCLEAR INDUSTRY MONOPOLY ESTABLISHED BY CONSTITUTION
MINISTRY OFMINES AND ENERGY
ELETROBRÁS(holding)
ELETRONUCLEAR
CONVENTIONAL UTILITIESFurnas, Chesf, ...
MINISTRY OFSCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
BRAZILIAN NUCLEAR ENERGYCOMMISIONCNEN
NUCLEAR FUEL INDUSTRY
INB
NUCLEAR HEAVY EQUIPMENT
NUCLEP
RESEARCH INSTITUTESIPEN, CDTN, IEN, IRD, CRCN
NUCLEAR SAFETYAUTHORITY
MINISTRY OFDEFENSE
RESEARCH INSTITUTESNAVY CTMSPAIR FORCE CTA/IEAvARMY CTEx/IEA
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ELETROBRAS10th. WORLD UTILITY
39,434 MW in operation37% of Brazil Installed Capacity59.000 km of transmission lines56% of Brazil total transmission
Hydro87%
Oil and Gas = 7%Coal = 1%
Nuclear = 5%
Own
Partnerships
Total
8,137
968
9,105
10,618
-
10,618
10,203
11
10,214
7,000
-
7,000
2,007
-
2,007
490
-
490
38,455
979
39,434
Total
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MISSIONWORKING ON 3 TIME FRAMES
1. TODAY : Operation & Maintenance
– Angra 1 :1985 (Westinghouse PWR 657 MW)
– Angra 2: 2001 (Siemens-KWU PWR 1350 MW)
2. TOMORROW: Engineering, Procurement,
Construction & Commissioning
– Angra 3: 2015 (AREVA NP PWR 1405 MW)
3. FUTURE: Research & Development
– 4 to 8 New NPP: 2015-2030
(national configuration PWR concept)
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ADMIRAL ÁLVARO ALBERTONUCLEAR POWER STATION
São Paulo220km
Belo Horizonte
350km
Rio de Janeiro130km
Angrados Reis
LOCATED NEAR FROM THE3 BRAZILIAN MAIN METROPOLITAN REGIONS
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ANGRA 2 PWRPower: 1.350 MWTechnology: Siemens/KWU Operation start: Janeiro/2001 ANGRA 1 PWR
Power: 657 MWTechnology: Westinghouse Operation start: Janeiro/1985
ADMIRAL ÁLVARO ALBERTONUCLEAR POWER STATION
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Othon Luiz Pinheiro da Silva
GENERATION TILL 2011: 182.450.141 MWhGENERATION RECORD 2011: 14,4 TWh** Itaipu record: 94 TWh
Availability 1997-2011Angra 1: 78,75%Angra 2: 88,03%
ANGRA 1 AND ANGRA 2 OPERATION
2011: IAEA PRIS – World 2nd Capacity factor
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Othon Luiz Pinheiro da Silva
participation in WANO and IAEAmissions abroad as specialists
on-the-job trainingin utilities
and consulting companies(USA and Europe)
participation ininternational conferences
and seminars
649
890
693
university degreetechniciansadministrative support
PERSONNEL PROFILE(2232 EMPLOYEES)
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DECENIAL ENERGY PLAN 2021No changes for Angra 3, but no new build
4.000 workers
ANGRA 3: 1.405 MW AREVA PWR
ANGRA 31.405 MW
2016
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TO BE CONNECTED
2016
NUCLEAR EXPANSION IN BRAZILANGRA 3
FIRST CONCRETE POURED2010
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NUCLEAR EXPANSION IN BRAZILANGRA 3 + 4-6 x 1.000 MW NUCLEAR STATIONS
ANGRA 3 WORKS ON SITE: General view
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DECENIAL ENERGY PLAN 2021No changes for Angra 3, but no new build
•The fact that the expansion of nuclear power generating facilities with have been restricted to Angra 3 is basically the time needed to deploy new plants.
•These periods are of the order of ten years counted from the definition of the site for the nuclear localization and the decision to commence effective measures for its implementation.
•It is noteworthy that are in development studies for selection of sites favoring the deployment of nuclear power plants in the Southeast / Midwest, South and Northeast.
•Thus, considering the time of maturation of a nuclear project, the probable date for the effective participation in the expansion of this power generation system beyond the horizon of this Plan.
•However, following the development of new projects and the deployment of new plants around the world, with prospects of technological advances that lead to the reduction of time and cost of deployment, must continue so that this source might be considered indicative plans in future.
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39H
YDR
O
NA
TUR
AL
GA
S
WIN
D A
ND
O
THER
R
ENEW
AB
LES
NU
CLE
AR
BIO
MA
SS A
ND
W
AST
E
CO
AL
FUEL
OIL
TOTA
L
2006 75,6 8,1 1,6 2,0 0,1 1,4 2,9 91,6Scenario 1 167,8 20,6 9,1 7,3 6,5 5,9 3,3 220,5Scenario 2 168,8 18,1 8,0 7,3 6,5 6,5 3,3 218,5Scenario 3 168,2 24,1 9,1 9,3 6,5 6,5 3,3 227,0Scenario 4 168,7 21,6 9,1 11,3 6,5 6,5 3,3 227,0Scenario 5 243,3 28,1 9,1 9,3 6,5 6,5 3,3 306,1
NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE IN BRASILPROJECTIONS FROM NATIONAL ENERGY PLAN 2030
2006
Scena
rio 1
Scena
rio 2
Scena
rio 3
Scena
rio 4
Scena
rio 5
FUEL OILCOAL
BIOMASS AND WASTENUCLEAR
WIND AND OTHER RENEWABLESNATURAL GAS
HYDROTOTAL
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
350,0
A greater growth ratefor renewables
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NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE IN BRASILPROJECTIONS FROM NATIONAL ENERGY PLAN 2030
2007-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2016-2030
REFERENCE 1.405 MWAngra 3
1.000 MWNE 1
1.000 MWNE 2
2.000 MWSE 1+SE 2
4.000 MW
MEDIUM 1.405 MWAngra 3
1.000 MWNE 1
2.000 MWNE 1+NE 2
3.000 MWSE 1+SE 2+NE 3
6.000 MW
HIGH 1.405 MWAngra 3
2.000 MWNE 1+NE 2
3.000 MWSE 1+SE 2+NE 3
3.000 MWSE 3+SE 4+NE 4
8.000 MW
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ELECTRIC SYSTEM EVOLUTIONNUCLEAR CAPACITY INSTALLED - 2030
High ScenarioAdicional MW
Low ScenarioAdicional MW
BRASIL 9.360 5.360
RÚSSIA 33.760 26.760
ÍNDIA 32.160 16.260
CHINA 43.830 24.830Ther
mal
bas
edEl
ectr
ic s
yste
ms
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NATIONAL ENERGY PLAN 2030
NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLASOF BRASIL
2) Southeast2.000 MW
1) Northeast 2.000 MW
STARTING OPERATION:2022 - 2030
EPRI SITTING CRITERIAGEOPROCESSING APPLIANCES
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BRAZILIAN NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS
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NUCLEAR EXPANSION IN BRAZILREGIONAL SCREEN IN 4 NORTHEAST STATES
5 CANDIDATEAREAS
12 POTENTIALSITES SELECTED
FOR FURTHER STUDIES
3 PER STATE
NATIONAL ENERGY PLAN 2030
PRIORITY REGION
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NUCLEAR EXPANSION IN BRAZILNORTHEAST NUCLEAR POWER STATION
EXPLORATORY STUDY: SITE PE-1 (artistic view)
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NUCLEAR EXPANSION IN BRAZILNORTHEAST NUCLEAR POWER STATION
A ROUTE TODEVELOPMENTINSPIRED
ON TVAROADMAP
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FUKUSHIMA BRINGS 2 NEWS
A BAD ONE
FOR WORLD NUCLEAR INDUSTRY
OTHERNOT SO BAD
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FUKUSHIMA BRINGS 2 NEWS
• SEVERE ACCIDENTS HAPPEN• EVEN AFTER ALL POST‐TMI, POST‐
CHERNOBYL AND OPERATIONAL EXPERIENCE FEEDBACK COUNTER‐MEASURES
THE BAD NEWS
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FUKUSHIMA BRINGS 2 NEWSTHE NOT SO BAD NEWS
• THEY ARE NOT SO “CATHASTROFIC”• THE OBJECTIVELY MEASURED HARM FOR
PUBLIC AND ENVIRONMENT CAUSED DOES NOT ADHERE TO THE HYPERBOLIC LANGUAGE OFTEN USED
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Stress Tests for Angra 1 and 2
According to specification issued by Iberoamerican Forum of Regulatory Bodies, Nuclear and Radiological (request from CNEN in January 2012)
Compliance with WENRA Specification for Stress Tests
Submitted to CNEN on April 2nd, 2012
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56 initiatives (studies and projects)
AroundUS$ 250 million to be applied from 2011 to 2015
High priority inside the organization
(submitted to Brazilian Nuclear Authority in December 2011)
Performance of Stress Tests
Fukushima Response Plan
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NATIONAL ENERGY PLAN 20301 ‐ 2 year delay minimum
1. Update 2035 (more nuclear?)– Was not be presented in 2011, as
planned – only this year (?)
2. Candidate areas National Atlas– Would be presented May 2011
– Will not be presented in 2011, as
planned – only in 2012 (?)
3. Site selection field works– Would be started end 2011
– Delayed (2013?)
NUCLEARPOTENTIAL ATLAS40 CANDIDATE AREAS
2016-2020
2021-2025
2026-2030
2016-2030
1.000 MWNE 1
1.000 MWNE 2
2.000 MW
SE 1+SE 2
4.000 MW
2) Southeast2.000 MW
1) Northeast2.000 MW
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BRAZILIAN URANIUM RESOURCESONE OF THE MAIN RESERVES IN THE WORLD
Prospected area:only 30% of national territory
up to 100 meters deep6th. WORLD RESERVE
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BRAZILIAN URANIUM RESOURCESONE OF THE MAIN RESERVES IN THE WORLD
After prospected all thenational territory, probably
Brazil should be amongthe 2 MAJOR WORLD
RESERVES
Pré-cambrian soilsBrasil 3.400.000 km2
Austrália 3.800.000 km2
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LEI and USIDE - NAVY(OPERATION)
NUCLEAR FUEL INDUSTRY IN BRAZILURANIUM + TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES
ENRICHMENTRESENDE
(CONSTRUCTION)
ANGRA 1/2/3PWR
FUEL FABRICATION RESENDE
CONVERSION(PROJECT)
LAGOA REAL(OPERATION)
ELETRONUCLEAR
(OPERATION)
INB
INB
INB
INB
USEXA - NAVY(CONSTRUCTION)
LABMAT and LADICON NAVY
(OPERATION)
LABGENENAVY
(CONSTRUCTION)
URANIUM MINNINGAND MILLING
One of the few countries having both:1. large uranium reserves2. full technological capability for
local fuel production
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NUCLEAR FUEL INDUSTRY IN BRAZILLONG TERM VISION
Continental integration1. Mercosur2. South America3. Latin America
Assuring regional supply1. Uranium supplier2. Integral nuclear fuel
services supplier (open cycle)
FULL SCOPE SAFEGUARDS
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NON PROLIFERATION IN BRAZILUNIQUE SUCCESS EXPERIENCE
• Brazilian Constitution proscribe all non-pacific uses of nuclear energy– Member of NPT– Member of Tlatelolco Treaty
A remarkablerecord of more than
25 years without technical deviations or
suspicious events
• All nuclear installations fully safeguarded– Multilateral agreements (1990 + 1994)
(Brazil – Argentina – ABACC) + IAEA• ABACC – bilateral regional agency
– IAEA full escope (NPT - 1997)
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NON PROLIFERATION IN BRAZILUNIQUE SUCCESS EXPERIENCE
As Japan, Germany and Netherlands, has 2+1 enrichment plants fully safeguarded
Brazilian centrifuge program was never suspected being “proliferant” neither part of any international “black-marketing”
Has produced 20% batches for research reactor fuel under full scope safeguardsLEI
USIDE
RESENDEEnrichmentfacility
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ABADIA DE GOIÁS REPOSITORY
LOW AND MEDIUM LEVEL WASTE FINAL DISPOSAL
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External pool (2020) Long Term Interim Storage (2035)
SPENT FUEL LONG TERM STORAGE BRAZILIAN SOLUTION
Designed for 500 years
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ELECTRICITY SUPPLY MATRIXHYDROPOWER POTENTIAL RESSOURCES
technical, environmental and economically feasible to be developed till 2030
150/180 GW fromtotal of 260 GW
CONTINUOUS DECREASE IN HYDRO SHARE AFTER 2020
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SOPHIAS´S CHOICES•The expansion over the decade will be based on a mix of sources - nuclear, natural gas, (depending on the amount and cost of Pre-Salt gas) and coal (depending on the feasibility of CCS and clean coal)
•Renewable sources (biomass, solar, wind) will be an important complement•Expansion of energy efficiency programs because of rising marginal costs of expansion
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SOPHIAS´S CHOICES
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Leonam dos Santos Guimarães, October 15, 2012
CYTED-UNECE