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284 NATURE | VOL 397 | 28 JANUARY 1999 | www.nature.com

[TOKYO] Earthquake research in Japan shouldfocus on understanding the mechanism ofearthquakes, rather than predicting them,according to an advisory body to the Japaneseprime minister. This shift is needed todevelop new disaster prevention technologies.

The research plan was released last weekby the Headquarters for EarthquakeResearch Promotion (HERP). It is intendedto shape Japan’s earthquake research for thenext decade, and will influence projects atnational research institutes from April, whenthe 1999 fiscal year begins.

There is a growing perception in Japanthat successful earthquake prediction maynot be realistic. Last year, the GeodeticCouncil, which advises the Ministry of Edu-cation, Science, Sports and Culture, madethe first changes in its 30-year-old pro-gramme of attempting to predict imminentearthquakes, shifting its focus to long-termforecasts of areas likely to be struck by majortremors (see Nature 393, 202; 1998).

HERP’s plan goes further by promotingresearch and development in disaster pre-vention techniques independent of earth-quake prediction, and by emphasizing basicresearch on earthquake processes throughsatellite observation, for example with theglobal positioning systems.

Set up in 1995 after the Kobe earthquaketo promote collaboration between min-istries, universities and research institutes,HERP sees the main aim of its plan as explor-ing ways to minimize the effects of majorearthquakes. It seeks to do this by analysisand simulation of seismic ground motions,and by creating a system to gather real-timeseismic data.

While the plan emphasizes some earth-quake prediction research, such as studies ofthe geophysical and geostructural features of

seismogenic zones, it calls for a departurefrom techniques based on data collection. Itstates that accurately predicting the timing ofearthquakes is “exceptionally difficult” withcurrent technology.

“Although the prediction programmehas shifted its focus to making long-termforecasts, there is still no guarantee that thisis actually possible,” says Mitsuhiro Matsu-ura, professor in seismology at Tokyo Uni-versity. “The purpose of earthquake researchis not to make a guess when an earthquakewill strike, but to understand the scientificmechanism behind it.”

The plan also calls for a new data centre tocollect and analyse information related todomestic earthquake research. While itsprime objective would be to provide infor-mation to researchers, it would also be acces-sible to the public.

By opening up this information, HERPhopes to give a better view of presentresearch, and to prevent the exploitation offunds in the name of earthquake research,which is often generously funded and is saidto be more likely to escape critical review.

But many researchers are concerned thatdisclosing data could mislead the public.“The disclosure of research data would cer-tainly be beneficial to those involved inearthquake research, but it could cause mis-understanding among the public,” warnsRobert Geller, a seismologist at Tokyo Uni-versity. “For example, the long-term absenceof an earthquake in a particular region couldgive the residents a false sense of security.”

The physics of earthquake processes,especially their dynamics, still requiresdetailed research, says Matsuura. Thereforethe public must be given a careful explana-tion of seismological phenomena so peopleunderstand what happens. Asako Saegusa

Japan to try to understandquakes, not predict them

US life scientists seek15 per cent rise toNIH research funds[WASHINGTON] The Federation of AmericanSocieties for Experimental Biology (FASEB)is calling for a 15 per cent increase in thebudget of the National Institutes of Health(NIH) in 2000.

FASEB, which represents 56,000researchers in 17 life-science societies, wantsa $2.3 billion boost for the biomedicalagency, currently running on $15.6 billion ayear. This would bring its budget up toalmost $18 billion. The increase would keepthe agency on track to double its budget overthe five years from 1998 to 2003, as many ofits supporters are advocating.

The federation issued the call last week inan annual report that also seeks a 15 per centincrease for the National Science Founda-tion, to $4.2 billion. Meanwhile, in back-ground material to President Clinton’sState of the Union address on 19 January, theWhite House indicated that the president’sforthcoming budget would ask Congress foronly $320 million in new funds for NIH —about a 2 per cent increase.

If past patterns are any indication, Con-gress is likely to provide more than the WhiteHouse requests. But it is not clear that, work-ing within strict spending caps imposed by a1997 budget law, Congress can or will pro-duce a 15 per cent increase for the secondyear running. Last year, NIH landed a $2 bil-lion, 15 per cent increase.

FASEB president William Brinkley, a cellbiologist who is vice-president for GraduateSciences and dean of the Graduate School ofBiomedical Sciences at Baylor College ofMedicine in Houston, said he was confidentof achieving the increase “because of thecommitment of our [Congressional] champi-ons”, Congressman John Porter (Republican,Illinois) and Senator Arlen Specter (Republi-can, Pennsylvania).

Porter and Specter chair, respectively, theHouse and Senate appropriations subcom-mittees that fund NIH.

Brinkley said he felt confident that Porterwas “committed” to achieving a 15 per centNIH increase, since Porter had told FASEBofficials recently: “It’s going to be very diffi-cult, but it can be done.”

Brinkley and other FASEB officials areconcerned that if NIH receives a significantlysmaller increase, such as the amount theWhite House is requesting, the agency’s abili-ty to fund new investigator-initiated grantswould fall off dramatically.

This is because so much of its moneywould already be committed to multi-yeargrants initiated in preceding years. The bio-medical research agency is funding about9,100 new grants this year. Meredith Wadman

[TOKYO] China has revealedplans to introduce toughregulations intended tostamp out ‘false’ earthquakewarnings, in order to preventpanic and mass evacuationsof cities triggered byforecasts of major tremors.

The new regulations onearthquake information,approved last week by theChinese prime minister ZhuRong-ji, will require a “highstandard of scientificreasoning” behind all

earthquake predictions.Anyone who releases aninaccurate earthquakewarning may be penalized.

According to thegovernment, more than 30unofficial earthquakewarnings have been made inthe past three years, none ofwhich has been accurate.Such warnings, which couldcause evacuation of morethan 10,000 residents at atime, have repeatedlybrought production lines and

business operations to astandstill, leading not only topublic disorder but also toconsiderable damage to thecountry’s economy.

Earthquake predictionwas introduced as a nationalpriority in China during theCultural Revolution, andwarnings against thefeasibility of such predictions— whether accurate or not —were once seen as achallenge to Mao’srevolutionary movement. A.S.

China clamps down on inaccurate warnings