5 ways the world will look dramatically different in 2100 - agenda - the world economic forum

8/18/2019 5 Ways the World Will Look Dramatically Different in 2100 - Agenda - The World Economic Forum

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11/19/2015 5 ways the world will look dramatically different in 2100 - Agenda - The World Economic Forum

https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/08/5-ways-the-world-wil l- look-dramatically- different-in-2100/?utm_content=buffere8077&utm_medium=social&utm_source=f…

Think the world is crowded now? You haven’t seen anything yet.

The world is expected to add another billion people within the next 15 years, bringingthe total global population from 7.3 billion in mid-2015 to 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7

billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion by 2100, according to new estimates from the UN.

Currently, 60 percent of the global population lives in Asia, 16 percent in Africa, 10

percent in Europe, 9 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean, and only 5 percent

in North America and Oceania. China and India are the largest countries in the

world, together making up almost 40 percent of the world population.

But those numbers won’t stay that way for long. The charts below, created by data

scientist Tariq Khokhar for the World Bank data blog using the medium estimates of

the UN figures, show our world is set to change in surprising ways.

1. Get ready for another 4 billion people by 2100.

GLOBAL REGIONAL INDUSTRY

Ageing Economic Growth and Social Inclusion Global Challenges

5 ways the world will look dramatically different in2100

By Ana Swanson

Aug 19 2015

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The world population is growing at a gradually slower and slower pace, but it’s still

growing substantially. Currently, the world adds about 83 million people per year,

equivalent to roughly the population of Germany. But population growth has slowed

to 1.18 percent per year from 1.24 percent a decade ago.

The UN expects population growth to continue to gradually level off. Globalpopulation is almost sure to rise in the short term but the UN says there is a 1 in 4

chance that the world population will stabilize or fall before 2100.

How accurate are these predictions? In the past, the UN has had a pretty good track

record with its population predictions, as In 1948 it projected world population would

be around 6 billion in 2000, only less than five percent off from what it was that year,

Khokar points out.

As the saying goes, past performance is no guarantee. There are a few factors that

could skew these results. One that the UN mentions in its report is how fast the birth

rate falls in countries where women currently have a lot of kids. The UN is expectingfertility to fall substantially, but that will hinge on things like investments in women’s

health and expanded access to birth control.

2. That growth is mostly coming from one continent — Africa.


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The UN’s projections for Africa are pretty mind-blowing. Africa is expected to more

than double its population by 2100. Africa currently accounts for 16 percent of the

global population. The UN expects that proportion to rise to 25 percent in 2050 and

49 percent by 2100.

That’s mostly because the continent is so young, and partly because fertility rates

are high. Exactly half of the continent’s population was under the age of 24 in 2015.

Many of these people will have children of their own in the next few decades, adding

greatly to the global total.

In contrast, the chart above shows the UN expects Asia’s population to peak and

then begin to fall, since many Asian countries have aging populations. Latin America,

Europe, Northern America and Oceania will mostly stay pretty constant.

Below are two more interactive charts by Khokhar showing just how much Africa will

add to the world population.


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3. Nigeria will soon become the world’s third most populous country.

Nigeria’s population will be bigger than that of the U.S. before long. The country is

expected to surpass America by about 2050 to become the third largest country in

the world, the UN says. At that point, China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and

the U.S. will all have populations of more than 300 million.

The UN stats also show that nearly half of the world’s population growth that will

happen before 2050 will be concentrated in nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan,

Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the U.S., Indonesia and

Uganda.

4. India will surpass China — soon.

Demography buffs may already know this one, but India is set to become the world’s

most populous country very soon. China now has 1.38 billion people, compared with

1.31 billion in India. By 2022, both countries will see their populations rise to 1.4billion. After that, China’s population will level off as its people age, but India will

keep growing to 1.5 billion in 2030 and 1.7 billion in 2050.

The chart below shows just how much of the world’s population growth is happening

in India.

5. Europe is getting really old.

Right now, about a quarter of Europeans are 60 or older. That proportion will rise to

a little more than a third in 2050 and 2100.

Outside of Africa, the global population is also set to age. By 2050, in all areas of the

world except Africa, nearly a quarter or more of the population will be 60 or older.

Countries including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Japan,

Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Serbia, and Ukraine will see their

populations fall by more than 15 percent by 2050.

One way to measure the aging of the global population is the median age, which is

the age that divides the world population into two halves of equal size, the UN says.

That age is now 29.6, but it will rise to 36 in 2050 and 42 in 2100.

This article is published in collaboration with The Washington Post . Publication does

not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum.

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Ageing Aging Contentpartner Decline Economic Growth And Social Inclusion Global Challenges

Growth Population Washington Post

To keep up with Agenda subscribe to our weekly newsletter .

Author: Ana Swanson is a reporter for the Washington Post.

Image: People cross a street in Mong Kok district in Hong Kong. REUTERS/Bobby

Yip

Posted by Ana Swanson - 11:06

All opinions express ed are those of the author. The World Economic Forum Blog is an independent and neutral platform

dedicated to generating debate around the key topics that shape global, regional and industry agendas.

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5 ways the world will look dramatically different in 2100 - agenda - the world economic forum

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