Homeless review 2018

5. Current and future levels of homelessness

5.1. One of the most important purposes of the review is to examine current and future levels of

homelessness. However, this should not restricted to looking at just statutory

homelessness. It needs to include other people that are homeless or at risk of

homelessness, including people sleeping rough. This section looks at homelessness

prevention and relief activity, housing advice services, rough sleeping, the impact and

response to welfare reform, and then statutory homeless activity. It goes on to provide a

cautious forecast of future levels of homelessness simple forecasting techniques (moving

average) amended where required to take account of other relevant local factors.

Prevention and relief

5.2. Homelessness prevention is a key element of an effective homelessness strategy. By 2010

prevention activity was nearly twice that of statutory homelessness activity. However, since

2010 the supply of private rented accommodation to relieve homelessness has decreased

dramatically, particularly in London. Private landlords, looking to increase their rents or to

sell their property, are less inclined to work with local authorities and prefer let to working

households in greater and greater numbers. Mediation with families looking to exclude

adult children has proved moderately effective in reducing homelessness as a result of

parental eviction in recent years

5.3. Homelessness prevention has been steadily increasing in England from 165,200 cases

prevented and relieved in 2009/10, to 215,220 in 2016/17. However, the opposite is true in

London where prevention and relief have decreased slightly – from 32,600 in 2009/10 to

30,280 in 2017/18. Figures 1 and 2 below shows prevention and relief activity in England

and London between 2009/10 and 2017/18.

Section 5 Figure 1: homelessness prevention and relief 2009/10 to 2017/18 (England)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Prevention Relief

Homeless review 2018

Section 5 Figure 2: homelessness prevention and relief 2009/10 to 207/18 (London)

Section 5 Figure 3: Homelessness prevention and relief 2009/10 to 2017/18 (CROYDON)

5.4. Figure 3 above sets out homelessness prevention and relief in Croydon between 2009/10 to

2017/18. The chart shows a strong decreasing trend in activity from over 2,500 cases in

2010/11 to just over 500 in 2015/16, followed by significant increases in activity in 2016/17

and 2017/18.

5.5. Figure 4 below sets out the detail of prevention activity between 2010/11 and 2017/18 Until

2016/17 there were decreases in most forms of prevention and particularly in the ‘Other’

categories. However, ‘Negotiation or legal advocacy’, ‘Family mediation and ‘Family

conciliation’, the ‘Sanctuary scheme’ and providing debt advice and resolving housing

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Prevention Relief

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

Relief Prevention

Homeless review 2018

benefit and rent arrears problems still made a significant contribution to preventing

homelessness. However, in 2017/18 there was a dramatic increase in homelessness

prevention, specifically in relation to financial payments from prevention fund, which

increased to 1,013 in 2017/18 following the allocation of additional funding to the

Discretionary Housing Payments (DHP) budget. It should also be noted, that London’s

allocation of the national DHP budget has reduced recently – from 39% 2013/14 to 24% in

2018/19 – due to the allocation mechanism not accurately reflecting the impact of changes

in LHA introduced in April 2016 on London households.

Section 5 Figure 4 Homelessness prevention 2010/11 to 2017/18

5.6. Figure 5 below sets out the detail of homelessness relief activity between 2010/11 and

2017/18. Homelessness relief (i.e. finding a potentially homeless household alternative

accommodation) has followed a similar decreasing trend from over 1,600 in 2010/11 again

to less than 400 in 2015/16. All forms of relief have decreased over this period, however,

with a noticeable decrease in securing private rented sector accommodation without

offering a landlord incentive. Again, there has been a reversal of the decreasing trend in

relief activity, however, this time from 2016/17. The type of relief activity that has increased

most in 2016/17 is securing private rented accommodation using an incentive.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

case

s o

f h

om

ele

ssn

ess

pre

ven

ted

Other

Mortgage arrears interventions

Other assistance

Negotiation or legal advocacy

Crisis intervention

Sanctuary scheme

Resolving rent arrears problems

Resolving HB problems

Debt Advice

Financial payments from prevention fund

Family conciliation

Family mediation

Homeless review 2018

Section 5 Figure 5: Homelessness relief 2010/11 to 2017/18

5.7. In addition to the statutory housing advice service, the Council commissions an independent

housing advice service for Croydon residents. The service is currently provided by South

West London Law Centres (SWLLC). SWLLC provide case work on money and debt

management, employment rights and obligations, housing issues and immigration and

asylum matters. SWLLC also provide free advice clinic, and a Housing Court Duty services at

Croydon County Court for people facing repossession or eviction.

Rough sleeping

5.8. Rough sleeping has more than doubled in England over the past seven years, from 1,768 in

2010 to 4,751 in 2017. In London, rough sleeping has nearly tripled over the same period

from 415 in 2010 to 1,137 in 2017. Most rough sleepers spend a short amount of time on

the streets, and the proportion of entrenched rough sleepers is relatively small. One in five

rough sleepers are non-UK nationals, and destitution among this cohort has an impact on

health services, the police and criminal justice system.

5.9. Rough sleeping had been increasing in Croydon since 2010 – from 4 in 2010 to 68 in 2016.

However, in 2017 the number of rough sleepers in Croydon fell to 31. Up to 2016 we used

the estimate methodology - an intelligence-based assessment leading to a single figure that

represents the number of people thought to be sleeping rough in the local authority area on

a ‘typical night’ – a single date chosen by the local authority between 1 October and 30

November. In 2017 however, we carried out a street count, where we recorded rough

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800House in Multiple Occupation (HMO)

PRS with landlord incentive

PRS without landlord incentive

Friends or relatives

Supported accommodation

Social Housing - management move

Social Housing - Part 6 offer

Social Housing - RSL outside Part 6

Low cost home ownership/market rentscheme

Other

Homeless review 2018

sleepers who were seen bedded down – a snapshot of the number of rough sleepers in the

local authority area on a single night between 1 October and 30 November.

5.10. There are very few vacancies in our supported hostels for rough sleepers, as finding move-on

accommodation for those already accommodated is increasingly difficult.

Thames Reach CHAIN data

5.11. CHAIN stands for Combined Homelessness And Information Network, and it’s a multi-agency

database that records information about people sleeping rough and the wider street

population in London. It was commissioned and funded by the Mayor of London and is

managed by St Mungo's. CHAIN is the UK's most detailed and comprehensive source of

information about rough sleeping. When comparing CHAIN data Croydon looks at its Outer

borough Statistical Neighbours - Enfield, Greenwich, Hillingdon, Merton, Redbridge and

Waltham Forest.

5.12. In 2017/18 Croydon had 234 rough sleepers, 11% of Outer boroughs 2,069 rough sleepers.

Croydon has the second highest population of counted rough sleepers in the Outer boroughs

cohort (Redbridge has 239).

Section 5 Table 1: Counted rough sleepers 2017 – 2018

Borough Flow Stock Returner Total

Croydon 170 36 28 234

Enfield 76 16 17 109

Greenwich 70 12 12 94

Hillingdon 46 5 7 58

Merton 16 6 2 24

Redbridge 148 66 25 239

Waltham Forest 68 12 14 94

Wandsworth 39 13 16 68

Total Outer borough Statistical Neighbours 633 166 121 920

Source: Chain annual report outer boroughs 2017 – 2018

Homeless review 2018

Section 5 Table 2: Number & percentage of times seen bedded down

Borough Number of times seen bedded down

% of times seen bedded down

1 2 3 4 5+ Total 1 2 3 4 5+

Croydon 186 28 11 5 4 234 79.5% 12.0% 4.7% 2.1% 1.7%

Enfield 81 15 6 1 6 109 74.3% 13.8% 5.5% 0.9% 5.5%

Greenwich 76 8 2 2 6 94 80.9% 8.5% 2.1% 2.1% 6.4%

Hillingdon 43 10 1 2 2 58 74.1% 17.2% 1.7% 3.4% 3.4%

Merton 16 4 2 1 1 24 66.7% 16.7% 8.3% 4.2% 4.2%

Redbridge 145 27 23 11 33 239 60.7% 11.3% 9.6% 4.6% 13.8%

Waltham Forest 63 13 6 2 10 94 67.0% 13.8% 6.4% 2.1% 10.6%

Total Outer borough Statistical Neighbours

610 105 51 24 62 852 71.6% 12.3% 6.0% 2.8% 7.3%

Source: Chain annual report outer boroughs 2017 – 2018

5.13. Table 2 above shows how Croydon performs in ensuring people do not spend a second night

on the street. Croydon has the lowest percentage (1.7%) of people who spend more than

five nights bedded down.

Section 5 Table 3: Number & percentage of genders rough sleeping

Borough Female Male Non-binary

Total Female %

Male %

Croydon 51 183 0 234 22% 78%

Enfield 21 88 0 109 19% 81%

Greenwich 18 76 0 94 19% 81%

Hillingdon 8 50 0 58 14% 86%

Merton 3 21 0 24 13% 88%

Redbridge 43 196 0 239 18% 82%

Waltham Forest 17 77 0 94 18% 82%

Total Outer borough Statistical Neighbours 161 691 0 852 19% 81%

Source: Chain annual report outer boroughs 2017 – 2018

5.14. Croydon has the highest percentage of female rough sleepers amongst statistical our outer

borough neighbours. Across the Outer boroughs Croydon has the highest actual number of

rough sleepers. Lewisham has the next highest at 45 (22.6%). As part of the new strategy, we

will look at provision of female only hostels or female only floors within hostels.

Homeless review 2018

Section 5 Table 4: Rough sleepers’ actual numbers and percentage

Percentage

Borough

Un

de

r 1

8 y

ear

s

18

- 2

5 y

ear

s

26

- 3

5 y

ear

s

36

- 4

5 y

ear

s

46

- 5

5 y

ear

s

Ove

r 5

5 y

ear

s

Tota

l

Un

de

r 1

8 y

ear

s

18

- 2

5 y

ear

s

26

- 3

5 y

ear

s

36

- 4

5 y

ear

s

46

- 5

5 y

ear

s

Ove

r 5

5 y

ear

s

Croydon 1 25 68 58 51 31 234 0.4% 10.7% 29.1% 24.8% 21.8% 13.2%

Enfield 0 7 29 24 38 11 109 0.0% 6.4% 26.6% 22.0% 34.9% 10.1%

Greenwich 0 10 23 27 26 8 94 0.0% 10.6% 24.5% 28.7% 27.7% 8.5%

Hillingdon 0 6 17 14 17 4 58 0.0% 10.3% 29.3% 24.1% 29.3% 6.9%

Merton 0 1 6 8 6 3 24 0.0% 4.2% 25.0% 33.3% 25.0% 12.5%

Redbridge 0 29 71 72 50 17 239 0.0% 12.1% 29.7% 30.1% 20.9% 7.1%

Waltham Forest

0 6 24 35 19 10 94 0.0% 6.4% 25.5% 37.2% 20.2% 10.6%

Total Outer London Statistical Neighbours

1 84 238 238 207 84 852 0.1% 9.9% 27.9% 27.9% 24.3% 9.9%

Source: Chain annual report outer boroughs 2017 – 2018

5.15. Croydon is the only borough amongst the outer boroughs that has a rough sleeper under 18.

Under the ages of 35, Redbridge has 41% and Croydon has 40%. Croydon also has a high

percentage of rough sleepers over 55, at 13% this is the highest amongst our statistical

neighbours.

Section 5 Table 5: Assessed Needs

Actual Number Percentage

Borough

Alc

oh

ol

Dru

gs

Me

nta

l he

alth

No

alc

oh

ol,

dru

gs o

r

me

nta

l he

alth

su

pp

ort

ne

ed

s To

tal a

sse

sse

d

Alc

oh

ol

Dru

gs

Me

nta

l he

alth

No

alc

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ol,

dru

gs o

r

me

nta

l he

alth

su

pp

ort

ne

ed

s To

tal a

sse

sse

d

Croydon 81 79 79 33 162 50.0% 48.8% 48.8% 20.4% 69.2%

Enfield 28 20 39 15 69 40.6% 29.0% 56.5% 21.7% 63.3%

Greenwich 24 24 35 21 74 32.4% 32.4% 47.3% 28.4% 78.7%

Hillingdon 10 10 18 11 37 27.0% 27.0% 48.6% 29.7% 63.8%

Merton 8 7 10 3 16 50.0% 43.8% 62.5% 18.8% 66.7%

Redbridge 77 59 86 62 216 35.6% 27.3% 39.8% 28.7% 90.4%

Waltham Forest

17 17 23 9 43 39.5% 39.5% 53.5% 20.9% 45.7%

Total Outer borough

245 216 290 154 617 39.7% 35.0% 47.0% 25.0% 71.8%

Homeless review 2018

statistical Neighbours

Source: Chain annual report outer boroughs 2017 – 2018

5.16. Table 5 shows the number and percentage of rough sleepers who have additional needs.

69% of the rough sleepers in Croydon have additional needs, compared to Redbridge which

reports 90%.

Section 5 Table 6: Institutional History

Bo

rou

gh

Arm

ed

fo

rces

Car

e

Pri

son

No

arm

ed f

orc

es o

r in

stit

uti

on

al h

isto

ry

Tota

l ass

esse

d*

Arm

ed

fo

rces

Car

e

Pri

son

No

arm

ed f

orc

es o

r in

stit

uti

on

al h

isto

ry

Croydon 9 21 69 86 191 4.7% 11.0% 36.1% 45.0%

Enfield 7 8 24 36 74 9.5% 10.8% 32.4% 48.6%

Greenwich 0 14 21 37 72 0.0% 19.4% 29.2% 51.4%

Hillingdon 3 2 13 19 38 7.9% 5.3% 34.2% 50.0%

Merton 5 0 7 7 18 27.8% 0.0% 38.9% 38.9%

Redbridge 12 7 60 129 213 5.6% 3.3% 28.2% 60.6%

Waltham Forest

2 3 20 21 46 4.3% 6.5% 43.5% 45.7%

Total Outer boroughs Statistical Neighbours

38 55 214 335 652 5.8% 8.4% 32.8% 51.4%

Source: Chain annual report outer boroughs 2017 – 2018

5.17. Croydon has the highest amount of rough sleepers who have left prison, (Table 14 above), as

well as those leaving care.

Crisis Skylight Centre – Croydon

5.18. 500 individuals presented at the Croydon Crisis Skylight Centre and a became a member in

2017/18. The Crisis Skylight Centre in Croydon operates a triage and duty system and

approximately 50% of people seen go on to become Crisis members.

Homeless review 2018

5.19. Based on the people seen by Crisis at the Skylight Centre, the groups of people most likely to

become street homeless are:

British males aged between 25 and 34

EEA nationals, asylum seekers and others without recourse to public funds

MH issues were their main health condition.

People who have been in care

5.20. Of the 500 who did become members, their living situation at time of approach was:

170 reported as rough sleeping

85 were sofa surfing

12 were in B&B

9 were in a shelter

117 were in supported housing or a hostel

This makes a total of 393 who meet the Crisis definition of homeless. The remainder either

did not answer the question or own/rent a property

59 people had been rough sleeping (RS) for 0-30 days

65 had been RS for 1-5 months

21 had been RS for 6-12 months and

23 had been RS for more than a year

189 people had been homeless two or more times, 71 of whom had been homeless more than 4 times.

70 were experiencing homelessness for the first time.

5.21. Reasons for homelessness. (these are the main reason given by each individual but there is

likely to have been some additional or secondary factors that resulted in the individual

becoming homeless):

Eviction by Landlord x 85

Dispute in household, violent or otherwise x 65

Nowhere to live after leaving prison x 30

Overstayed welcome x 29

Nowhere to live after leaving NASS accommodation x 17

MH issues that made independent living unsustainable x 16

Job tied to employment x 16

Drug and alcohol abuse x 15

Victim of ASB/harassment/crime x 5

Homeless review 2018

Welfare reform

5.22. In April 2013, three major reforms to welfare benefits were introduced in Croydon, the

household benefits cap1, the social housing size criteria (“bedroom tax”)2 and the

introduction of local council tax support scheme with a 10% reduction in government grant.

5.23. Over 16,000 Croydon residents were affected by these reforms, the majority by a small

reduction in their incomes (£4 on average per week), but a significant number by a reduction

that meant homelessness was a real possibility. In Croydon there were 730 people affected

by the benefit cap, mostly households with children living in the private rented sector; and

2,425 social housing tenants affected by the social housing size criteria by on average by £20

per week. Further welfare reforms since 2013 have introduced a four year freeze on Local

Housing Allowance rates, a reduction in the benefit cap to £23,000 in London (£15,410 for a

single person) and £20,000 (£13,400 for a single person) elsewhere in the UK, as well as a

four year benefits freeze.

5.24. Croydon was also one of the first London boroughs to ‘roll-out’ Universal Credit in 2013. The

government introduced Universal credit as a payment to help with out of work households

with their living costs. Universal Credit replaced six different benefit payments:

Income-based Jobseeker’s Allowance

Income-related Employment and Support Allowance

Income Support

Working Tax Credit

Child Tax Credit

Housing Benefit

5.25. UC also introduced:

Claimants applying and managing their account online

A single household claim

Payments covering rent made direct to the claimant rather than the landlord

A delay from when housing cost support can be claimed and when claimants will receive

their first payment

5.26. A study conducted in the London Boroughs of Southwark and Croydon, and Peabody by the

Smith Institute has analysed the impacts of universal credit on tenants and their rent

payment behaviour. Analysis was carried out during the period of the change from housing

benefit (HB) to universal credit (UC) between August and October 2016 and rent accounts

were tracked until the end of March 2017. The main findings of the study concluded that:

Increased rent arrears of £89,000 over the period, with an average of £115 average per

claimant

1 The household benefit cap which restricts an households overall out-of-work benefit including housing

benefit (HB) to £350 a week for single adults and £500 a week for couples (with or without a child or children)

and single parents (with a child or children)

2 The application of size criteria to working age social housing tenants claiming housing benefit which reduces

their housing benefit entitlement by 14% for one spare room and 25% for two or more spare rooms

Homeless review 2018

3.4% of total rent was not paid over the period

Underpayments contributed most to arrears: 69% of the value of the underpayments

was from those failing to pay more than 75% of rent owed.

Claimants used a range of strategies to cope financially, and many were heavily relying

on friends and family (this is not an option for everyone)

Differences between Croydon and Southwark:

o Southwark was the only landlord to have rent arrears over the whole period –

arrears totalled 8% of rent owed, equivalent to £270 owing per tenant or 16

days of rent

o Croydon experienced a surplus moving to Universal Credit, as tenants on

average overpaying by £45, equivalent to 3 days of rent (noted that Croydon

supported 47 tenants with £72,000 of Discretionary Housing Payments to help

with rent arrears and prevent evictions)

5.27. The Council’s response was to establish a ‘Gateway & Welfare Service’ with the aim to help

each family impacted by welfare reform through income maximisation, debt management,

finding a sustainable housing solution and accessing employment. The results so far have

been very positive. The Gateway and Welfare division has:

• Helped more than 2,400 families avoid homelessness

• Provided budgeting support to over 14,900 people

• Supported over 4,700 people on Universal Credit to improve their digital skills

• Seen a 15% reduction in the number of people applying to the Council as homeless

• Cut the cost of giving people emergency accommodation by £2m

• Increased the homeless prevention rate from 25% to 58%

• Reduced the numbers in emergency accommodation from 824 to 667

• Supported 587 residents into employment.

• Phase 1 of the Gateway programme is saving the Council £2.5m per year

Discretionary Housing Payments

5.28. Where a claimant is eligible for Housing Benefit, but experiences a shortfall between the

rent due and the Housing Benefit payable (e.g. because they live in a property that is

deemed to be too large for their needs, or the rent charged is higher than the Local Housing

Allowance rate), they can apply to the local authority for a Discretionary Housing Payment

(DHP). There is no obligation on authorities to pay DHPs and the way funding is allocated,

and decisions made is the responsibility of each local authority. This had led to accusations

that a DHP ‘postcode lottery’ has developed, for example, in its 2014 report on support for

housing costs in the reformed welfare system, the Work and Pensions Committee stated:

Many witnesses reported that the level of discretion allowed to local authorities

in managing DHPs was creating too much variation in decision-making and

leading to a “postcode lottery” whereby households with similar circumstances

would receive different DHP decisions because of where they lived. Witnesses

also described variation in local authorities’ priorities for DHP; for example, some

LAs prioritised households in temporary accommodation over other households.

Homeless review 2018

Some LAs are also placing conditions on payments, such as requiring claimants

to meet some of the shortfall themselves

5.29. In 2016/17, central government contributed £150 million to DHP funding. The majority of

LAs have reported spending less than or 100 per cent of their central government allocation

of DHP funding. In 2016/17 Croydon ‘topped up’ its DHP allocation by £500,000, the highest

additional DHP subsidy in London3.

Statutory homelessness

5.30. Local authorities are required to provide assistance and accommodation to homeless

households in their area and the legal requirements are set out in the Housing Act 1996 and

the Homeless Reduction Act 2018. The provisions restrict the council's duties to those

households that are homeless, eligible for assistance and in priority need of housing.

Homelessness depends on the household being able to secure access to accommodation

they have a legal right to occupy, and also considers whether it is reasonable for someone to

continue to occupy the accommodation (which is particularly relevant to cases of domestic

violence).

5.31. Eligibility depends upon citizenship or nationality, whether a household is "habitually

resident" in the UK, and on immigration status. There are different rules for British citizens,

nationals of the European Union (EU) or European Economic Area (EEA) and people of other

nationalities. EU and EEA nationals have an automatic right to live in the UK for three

months after their arrival. However, they have restricted rights during this period. EU and

EEA nationals that are working, self-employed or have a permanent right to reside can make

a homeless application.

5.32. Priority need mainly concerns whether the household includes dependent children

(including being pregnant), care leavers 18 -20, an emergency such as fire or flood or

someone who is vulnerable, for example, due to age, disability, mental health, or having

spent time in prison, hospital or the armed forces.

5.33. If a homeless household is found to have made themselves intentionally homeless (i.e. by

doing something deliberately to lose their accommodation, or by omitting to do something

they should have done to keep their accommodation), a local authority is only required to

provide accommodation for a short time (this is normally 21 days in Croydon).

5.34. Where a local authority decides a household is not eligible for assistance, or they are not in

priority need or they are not homeless, the council has no further duty to assist.

Homelessness Reduction Act 2017

5.35. The Homelessness Reduction Act (HRA) was introduced in April 2018, bringing in “one of the

biggest changes to the rights of homeless people in England for 15 years” (Shelter). The HRA

places two new duties on local authorities:

3 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/use-of-discretionary-housing-payments-financial-year-201617

Homeless review 2018

A prevention duty which requires local authorities to take ‘reasonable steps to help the

applicant to secure that accommodation does not cease to be available’ (s.4), and,

A relief duty to take ‘reasonable steps to help the applicant to secure that suitable

accommodation becomes available’ (s.5)

5.36. The act has introduced a requirement to assist anyone who is threatened with homelessness

within 56 days. It requires a new approach no longer based on priority need, and requires

the local authorities to prevent or relieve homeless with all applicants provided they are

eligible for housing services and homeless. Eligible and homeless applicants now receive an

assessment of their housing need, and develop a personal housing plan which outlines the

steps local authorities will undertake to prevent and relieve homelessness.

5.37. The Homelessness Reduction Act also brings in a duty for requiring specified public

authorities in England to notify local housing authorities of service users they think may be

homeless or threatened with becoming homeless in 56 days. This includes: Prisons, Youth

Offending Services, Probation Services, Job Centre Plus, Hospitals (including A&E

Departments). The duty will come into force on 1st October 2018. The Homelessness Code

of Guidance that local authorities should always respond to referrals by making contact with

the individual4.

5.38. These changes, while welcome for the positive impact they will have in preventing

homelessness, will nonetheless place a considerable administrative burden on authorities as

demand is predicted to increase by 50% and interview times are likely to double. Local

authorities are also required to remain in contact with customers throughout the homeless

journey and review their plan as their circumstances change or the duties end. There will

also be a further increase in demand when the duty on public bodies to refer to the local

authority, customers whom they believe to be homeless or threatened with homelessness is

implemented in October 2018. Due to these changes, there will be a significant impact on

Gateway and Welfare homelessness services, which are currently being redesigned to

respond to the new legislation. It is anticipated that demand for in-house services will

increase as the council will have to assist an increased number of customers, many to whom

require support with other Gateway services around reducing debt, budgeting, access to

work and training as well as support to access affordable accommodation.

Homelessness decisions

5.39. Homelessness has been on a steady upward trend in England since 2009/10. Until then,

homelessness had been decreasing and reached a low of 41,780 acceptances in 2010.

Homeless applications have increased by 30% in England since 2009/10 from 89,120 to

115,590 in 2016/17. The rate of increase is similar in London with an increase of 28% over

the same period.

4

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/682995/

Final_Duty_to_refer_policy_factsheet.pdf

Homeless review 2018

5.40. On average over the past 10 years, the council makes around 2,000 decisions on homeless

applications each year. Nationally nearly half (47%) of homeless applications are accepted,

and just over 60% of applications in London. In Croydon, slightly more than half (52%) of

applications are accepted with the full homeless duty for 2016/17. 29% of statutory

homeless decisions in 16/17 in Croydon were that the household applying was not actually

homeless. 12% of applications decisions were that the household was not in priority need of

housing. A further 7% of households were found to have made themselves homeless

intentionally.

5.41. The number of households accepted as homeless decreased significantly in 2017/18 to 749

(from 1042 in 2016/17), however, this is still 324 more households than in 2009/10.

5.42. Croydon has a higher acceptance rate than the London average at 6.63 per 1,000

households in 2016/17 compared to 5.03 on average across London. This is more than twice

the rate for England of 2.54 per 1000 households.

Section 5 Table 7: Homelessness decisions

Accepted as homeless

Unsuccessful applications

Total decisions

% change

Intentionally homeless

Homeless but not priority

Eligible but not

homeless

2010-11 575 94 321 1,186 2,176 2011-12 847 147 402 883 2,279 + 47%

2012-13 912 186 375 1,406 2,879 + 8%

2013-14 762 96 417 1,184 2,459 - 16%

2014-15 880 125 363 1,044 2,412 + 15%

2015-16 1,006 140 136 209 1,491 + 14%

2016-17 1,042 144 239 584 2,009 + 4%

2017-18 749 121 194 272 1,336 - 28%

Homeless review 2018

Section 5 Figure 6: Homeless decisions 2008/09 to 2017/18 (Croydon)

Homeless households places in temporary accommodation

5.43. The number of homeless households placed in temporary accommodation (TA) by Local

authorities has been increasing since 2010, when there were 48,010 households in TA in

England, the fewest number of households since 1998.

5.44. Official statistics published in June 2018 reported 79,880 households in temporary

accommodation at the end of March 2018. This is the 27th time the number of households in

temporary accommodation has risen compared with the same quarter of the previous year.

The 79,880 households include 123,230 children, representing a 65% increase since the first

quarter of 2010. Of these households, 54,540 (68%) were placed in temporary

accommodation in London

Section 5 Figure 7: Households in temporary accommodation (Croydon)

449 425575

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Eligible,unintentionallyhomeless and inpriority need

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Homeless review 2018

5.45. Homelessness and the use of TA responds to a variety of factors, and the relationship and

interaction between the factors is not straight-forward nor immediate. On 31 March 2018

there were 2,005 homeless households placed in temporary accommodation by Croydon

Council, 18% fewer than the previous year and 31% fewer than in 2016 of 2,918 households.

Of those in temporary accommodation, one in four were living in council homes:

40% were in the private rented sector under various arrangements

25% were in council homes, and

33% in emergency accommodation

Section 5 Table 8: Households in temporary accommodation

Number of households Number per 1,000 households

Croydon Croydon London England

2010-11 1,478 10.3 11.1 2.2

2011-12 1,749 12.0 11.2 2.3

2012-13 2,161 14.6 11.7 2.5

2013-14 2,414 16.1 12.8 2.6

2014-15 2,770 18.2 14.0 2.8

2015-16 2,918 18.9 14.8 3.1

2016-17 2,449 15.6 15.1 3.3

2017-18 2,005 12.6 14.9 3.4

5.46. A detailed breakdown of the types of temporary accommodation in use at the end of March

2018 is set out in Table 9 below and compared to the position in March 2016.

Section 5 Table 9: Type of Temporary Accommodation in use 2016 & 2018

Type of TA 2016 2018 % change

Shared bed and breakfast 339 121 -64%

Self-contained bed and breakfast 504 529 5%

Hostel 9 5 -44%

Womens refuge 0 0 0%

Housing Association private leased 503 295 -41%

Private rented 460 518 13%

LB Croydon council housing 1003 502 -50%

Housing Association housing 0 0 0%

Other 100 35 -65%

Total 2,918 2005 -31%

Source: P1E (September)

5.47. The number of households placed in emergency accommodation has decreased from 843 in

March 2016 to 650 in March 2018.

Homeless review 2018

5.48. Comparing the number of households in temporary accommodation to the population size

in an area gives a measure of its use across England. In England there were 3.36 households

living in temporary accommodation per 1,000 households at the end of December 2017.

There were 14.89 cases per thousand households in London and 1.24 cases per thousand

households in the rest of England. In Croydon, there were 12.37 cases per thousand

households slightly lower than the London average.

5.49. February 2016 saw the publication of research commissioned by London Councils from the

Centre for Housing Policy at the University of York which identified specific issues for London

authorities in securing temporary accommodation:

"A perfect storm of market conditions and policy changes means that providing temporary accommodation for homeless individuals and families is increasingly challenging for London boroughs."

5.50. As noted above, there are also tens of thousands of children living in temporary

accommodation and the LGA recently called for councils to be given the flexibility to borrow

money to fund house-building to tackle homelessness. LGA Housing spokesperson, Cllr

Judith Blake, said:

“For too many families, it (the 2018 summer holiday) has been a miserable existence, living in

inappropriate conditions as they experience the sharp end of our national housing shortage.

Councils are currently housing almost 123,000 children experiencing homelessness, which not

only has hugely negative impact on their young lives but creates an unsustainable position

for local councils, as they experience spiralling housing costs without the tools and resources

to deliver the homes their residents need. The Government needs to ensure all councils are

able to borrow to build the new homes that are needed to address our housing shortage, and

adapt welfare reforms to prevent people from losing their home where possible.”

The cost of temporary accommodation

5.51. Inside Housing reported in August 2018 that the annual bill for the provision of temporary

accommodation by local authorities has increased by 56% in the past five years, up from

£602m in 2013/14 to £937m in 2017/18. Over that period, the total spend was at least

£3.87bn, based on figures obtained from 290 local authorities through Freedom of

Information Act requests. Over the same period, just over £1bn was spent accommodating

homeless households in B&Bs, guest houses or hotels, according to the 181 councils which

broke the data down into different types of accommodation for the five years. Another

£1bn was spent on private sector temporary accommodation, most commonly either leased

from individual private landlords or contracted out to companies.

5.52. Local authorities recover nearly four-fifths of the money through housing benefit claims –

which means the government has spent an estimated £3bn for temporary accommodation

in the past five years. The actual figures are likely to be higher still, since 36 councils with

responsibility for homelessness in England did not respond to the Inside Housing survey.

London’s 33 authorities accounted for 78.2% of temporary accommodation spending last

Homeless review 2018

year. Hackney, Enfield and Westminster councils spent £54.8m, £49.9m and £48m

respectively.

Priority need

5.53. Priority need for accommodation determines the homelessness duties local authorities have

with regards to providing accommodation. There are five priority need categories:

Pregnant woman or any person who resides with a pregnant woman

households with whom dependent children reside or might reasonably be expected to

reside

all 16- and 17-year-olds, provided they are not a 'relevant child' (relevant children

remain the responsibility of social services) or a child in need to whom a local authority

owes a duty under section 20 of the Children Act 1989

all 18- to 20-year olds (other than 'relevant students'), who 'at any time after reaching

the age of sixteen, but while still under eighteen' were, but are no longer, looked after,

accommodated or fostered

any person who has lost her/his accommodation as a result of an emergency such as

flood, fire or other disaster.

5.54. There are another 5 categories of priority need where the local authority is satisfied the

applicant is vulnerable, and these categories concern people who are vulnerable as a result

of:

old age, mental illness or disability, physical disability or other special reason, or

someone who lives with one of these categories of vulnerable person

having been looked after, accommodated or fostered and is aged 21 or over (other than

' relevant students')

having been a member of Her Majesty's regular naval, military or air forces

having served a custodial sentence, been committed for contempt of court or similar

offence, or been remanded in custody

having had to leave accommodation because of violence or threats of violence from

another person that are likely to be carried out.

Homeless review 2018

Section 5 Figure 8: homeless Acceptances by priority need category

5.55. Figure 8 above clearly shows that households with dependent children, or a household

member who is pregnant make up the vast majority of homeless applicants in Croydon - 563

out of 749 in 2017/18 (75%) .

Reasons for homelessness

5.56. Nationally the most frequently occurring reason for homelessness is the loss of a private

sector tenancy (typically, a private sector assured shorthold tenancy (AST)). The ending of

an assured shorthold tenancy with a private landlord has been an increasingly common

cause of loss of last home over the last ten years. This indicates that housing affordability is

an issue, as more households facing the end of a private tenancy are unable to find an

alternative without assistance.

5.57. In 2017/18 in Croydon, the single most common reason for homelessness was the loss of an assured shorthold tenancy with 211 households accepted as homeless. 193 households were no longer accommodated other by either their parents or other relatives/friends. Most causes of homelessness have shown a flat or increasing trend over the past ten years.

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Drugs Alcohol Asylum seeker Other

Vunerable LAC HM Forces Prison Violence

Homeless review 2018

Section 5 Figure 9: Reasons for homelessness

5.58. Significantly in 2017/18 loss of an assured shorthold tenancy (a tenancy in the private rent sector) in Croydon reduced by more than half (51%) from 434 in 2016/17 to 211 in 2017/18. The other significant reasons for homelessness, however, have either remained constant (in the case of parents of relatives no longer willing to accommodate a household), or gradually increased (Violent breakdown of relationship, involving partner)

Section 5 Figure 10: Reason for Homelessness – Loss of AST (+ trend line)

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Homeless review 2018

Section 5 Figure 11: Prevention, relief, statutory decisions and use of temporary accommodation

5.59. Figure 11 above brings together discretionary homelessness prevention and relief, with

statutory homeless applications, it also overlays the number of homeless households placed

in temporary accommodation. The chart clearly shows the impact of an increase in

homelessness prevention and relief on numbers of households placed in temporary

accommodation.

Future levels of homelessness

5.60. Accurately projecting levels of homelessness is a very complex task. Levels of homelessness

fluctuate in relation to a range of interconnected factors. Projections need to include the

impact of structural factors such as the economy, the housing market and government

policy. They should also include analysis of local trends in applications, acceptances, reasons

for homelessness and the use of temporary accommodation. Ideally, a projection should

identify when levels of homelessness are likely to change significantly – when an increasing

trend will tip over into a decreasing trend. However, it should be recognised at the outset

that this is extremely difficult.

5.61. The Council is required to provide accommodation for homeless households in certain

circumstances which adds severe strain to current resources, particularly when levels of

homelessness are increasing and local authorities are expected to reduce expenditure. If not

managed effectively it can also result in negative impacts on the health, employment, and

education of homeless households, in negative decisions from the Local Government

Ombudsman (including compensating the households affected). Accurate projections of

future levels of homelessness and the future need for temporary accommodation will enable

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Homeless review 2018

the Council to plan for, budget and manage the demand efficiently and develop a flexible TA

portfolio that meets the needs of our customers.

5.62. The following sections analyse homeless decisions, acceptances, reasons for homelessness,

and anticipated housing supply. A moving average is a technique to get an overall idea of

the trends in a data set; it is an average of any subset of numbers. The moving average is

useful for forecasting long-term trends. It can be used for any period, for example, if you

have data for a twenty-year period, you can calculate a five-year moving average, a four-year

moving average, a three-year moving average and so on. Stock market analysts will often use

a moving average to help forecast market trends.

Section 5 Figure 12: Homeless decisions projected to 2023

5.63. Over the last ten years the number of households applying as homeless (i.e. homeless

applications requiring a decision) increased between 2008/09 and peaked at nearly 2,900 in

2013/14. Since then the number of homeless decisions has decreased to a ten year low in

2017/18 of 1336. Applying a 5-year moving average to homelessness decisions over this

period suggests decisions should continue to decrease slowly to around 1800 in 2022/23.

1,617 1,680

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2,879

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1,491

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Homeless review 2018

Section 5 Figure 7: Homeless Acceptances projected to 2023

5.64. The number of households accepted as homeless acceptances have followed a similar

pattern over this period. Applying a 5 year moving average to acceptances suggests that

levels should continue at around 850-900 over the next five years.

Section 5 Figure 8: Reasons for Homelessness projected to 2023

5.65. Since 2011/12, the trend in reasons for homelessness has changed significantly. Up until

then parental exclusion was the most common reason for homelessness (214 cases in

11/12). However, since then the loss of an assured shorthold tenancy (AST) has rapidly

increased, and has for some years been the most common reason for homelessness.

Applying a 5 year moving average to the homelessness reasons data suggests that loss of a

private sector tenancy will continue as the most frequent reason for homelessness, with

parent/relative no longer willing to accommodate as the second most frequent reason.

449 425

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Homeless review 2018

Section 5 Figure 9: Housing supply forecast to 2023

5.66. The supply of accommodation has been decreasing over the past ten years. It is expected

that around 800 units of accommodation per year will become available to allocate over the

next five years. This includes the assumption that 180 private sector units (which had been

in very short supply in recent years) will be secured for homeless households. That being

said, supply of private rented units increased to over 300 in 2017/18. It is reasonable to

assume that this level of supply (800 units) will continue to be available over the next 5

years.

Review question 8 – Levels of homelessness and rough sleeping

Have we analysed all the relevant information on the homelessness and rough

sleeping?

Contact details for feedback/comments on this section

5.1. Input and feedback can be provided in writing, by email, by telephone or via the on our Get

Involved web site. The information provided as part of this review will feed into Croydon’s

third Homelessness Strategy since the Homelessness Act 2002 was introduced.

5.2. To provide feedback or comments please write to: David Morris, Gateway Transformation

Programme Lead (Interim), Croydon Council, Bernard Weatherill House, 8 Mint Walk,

Croydon CR0 1EA, or email david.2.morris@croydon.gov.uk .

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