UNCTAD Regional Workshop 5 – 7 December 2017, Bridgetown, Barbados

“Climate Change Impacts and

Adaptation for Coastal Transport Infrastructure in the Caribbean”

Coastal Transport Infrastructure in the Caribbean – Economic Implications of

the Recent Disasters

By

Willard Phillips

UN-ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, Trinidad

This expert paper is reproduced by the UNCTAD secretariat in the form and language in which it has been received. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the UNCTAD.

1

Presented by

Willard Phillips

UNECLAC

UNCTAD Regional Workshop

Barbados

December 05th, 2017

� Transportation Infrastructure is Critical

for SIDS

� Infrastructure Characteristics

� Impacts of Recent Disasters –Damages

and Loss

� Macroeconomic Implications - Debt

� Social Impacts – Education and crime

� Political Impacts

� Conclusion

2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Indicator of Trade Openness: Total Value of Trade as a

Percentage of GDP (2013)

Source: UNCTAD

3

� Small transportation markets

� High fixed costs per capita – scale

effects

� Limited inter-connectivity

� Limited modes and redundancy

� Inflexible scheduling

� Reflecting diverse source and

destination markets – historical legacy

Transportation Characteristics

4

5

Impacts of Recent Disasters

6

� Direct Impacts: Preliminary damage

assessments – between 80% - 200% GDP

� Disruption of Trade Flows

� Destruction to agricultural crops, roads and

bridges, electricity and telecommunications

� Up to 95% of buildings damaged or destroyed

� 33% of electricity infrastructure destroyed

� Loss of life

� Preliminary reported estimates: USD40 – 55

Billion for the Caribbean alone.

Impacts from Natural Hazards

� Key sectors – Tourism

� Public Debt

� Disruption of Investment Flows

� Increased risk premiums

� Logistics disruptions

� Environmental costs

Other Economic Impacts…

7

Source: UNWTO

June, 2017 - CTO

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

International Tourist Arrivals to the Caribbean -

Selected Years (Millions)

Source: IMF

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

BAR JAM ANT GRE DOM SLU SKN BAH TTO

Debt to GDP Ratios (%) - Selected Caribbean Countries:

2015 - 2016

2015 2016

8

� Disruption of Investment Flows

� Increased Risk Premiums

� Logistics Disruptions

� Environmental Costs

Other Economic Impacts…

� Social: Education and Health

� Political

� Overall medium to long term impacts

unknown

Other (non-transportation)

Impacts

9

� The peculiarities of the sub-region

make transportation infrastructure

extremely critical for Caribbean SIDS

� Strategies for reducing vulnerabilities,

enhancing resilience, and improving

economic efficiency are necessary for

sustaining economic and social gains.

Conclusions

THANK YOU