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4Q2019 Real Estate Performance & 2019 Annual Real Estate Portfolio Review
City of Phoenix Employees’ Retirement System (COPERS)
May 7, 2020
Presented remotely by Mark Bartmann & Dan Krivinskas
Table of Contents
Slide
COVID-19 Implications and Impact ………………….. 3
4Q2019 Real Estate Portfolio Performance……………. 6
2019 Annual Portfolio Review………………………….. 14
Appendix: 4Q2019 Portfolio NAV Summary ......................... 24
COVID-19 Short-Term Real Estate Implications
3
April Rent Collections Drastically Different Based Upon Property Type Industrial, datacenters, education, governmental, medical office, and most
multifamily in the 90%+ range
Traditional office and workforce multifamily in the 70-85% range
Retail in the 10-50% range (better positioned retail getting much higher collections than most malls and discretionary retail)
Rent Holidays in Some Markets Will Impact Income In some markets outside of the US, governments are imposing burden-sharing
laws to force landlords to not collect rent (e.g., Australia, Japan)
Even in US markets, some programs are in place to reduce collection activity on impacted groups (e.g., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac prohibiting evictions)
Speed of “Reopening” of Economy Will Have Significant Impact If economies open up relatively quickly (like China and South Korea), potential
downside impact may be limited
COVID-19 Long-Term Real Estate Implications
4
Long-Term Valuation Impact Much More Uncertain In some property types (industrial, datacenters), we have seen valuations increase
since the onset of COVID-19 (“the Amazon effect”)
In the most economically-sensitive areas (retail, hotels), valuations have taken a hit and are likely to suffer in the coming quarters
Others will see some impact, but the level of impact is uncertain and dependent on specific property circumstances
Longer-Term Trends Likely to Accelerate Increased focus on industrial, datacenters, healthcare, and residential assets over
more challenged areas such as retail and hotels (which are likely to bounce back at some point, but at a slower rate than other asset classes)
Lower Interest Rates Are Likely to Buoy Values 10-Year Treasury rates at 0.6% (as of 4/22/2020) support lower cap rates
Low interest rate environment persisting over the longer-term should continue to benefit yield-producing assets
COVID-19 Impact on COPERS Real Estate Portfolio
5
Good 2019 Performance, With 2020 More of a Question Good performance by the COPERS real estate portfolio in 2019 will at least
partially reverse in 2020—by what amount is still a question
COPERS Has Increased Exposures to Less Economically-Sensitive Property Types in Recent Years, Although Legacy Hospitality Exposure Will Impact Performance Hammes Partners III in medical office; Focus Healthcare Partners I in senior
housing; and SC Core+ in Asian logistics, education, and governmental space
Significant short-term impact on hospitality and retail assets will result in lower valuations and extended holding periods
COVID-19 Impact Has Been Fairly Swift Compared to 2008 Downturn GDP growth likely to be the most negative in 2Q 2020, with some recovery
projected in 3Q 2020 and 4Q 2020
COPERS’ conservative leverage posture (below 40% LTV), should help to withstand the downturn
4Q2019 Real Estate Portfolio Performance
Portfolio Overview
7
InvestmentCOPERS
CommitmentStructure
Investment Period
ExpirationCommitment
Unfunded Commitment % Funded 1 Status 2
Morgan Stanley Prime 3Q 2006 Open N/A $90,500,000 $0 100.0% StabilizedJPMorgan SPF 2Q 2007 Open N/A $87,380,529 $0 100.0% StabilizedTotal Core Portfolio $177,880,529 $0 100.0%JDM Partners I 1Q 2010 Closed Expired $20,000,000 $551,724 97.2% HarvestingRECAP III 1Q 2012 Closed Expired $30,000,000 $6,339,855 78.9% Nearly LiquidatedWheelock Street I 2Q 2012 Closed Expired $20,000,000 $3,724,018 81.4% Nearly LiquidatedNorthwood Series IV 1Q 2014 Closed Expired $20,000,000 $13,577,934 32.1% HarvestingWheelock Street II 3Q 2014 Closed Expired $30,000,000 $8,700,665 71.0% HarvestingNorthwood Series V 1Q 2015 Closed 2Q 2020 $30,000,000 $9,927,051 66.9% InvestingRECAP IV 1Q 2015 Closed Expired $30,000,000 $5,847,781 80.5% HarvestingHSI V 2Q 2016 Closed Expired $25,000,000 $8,095,647 67.6% HarvestingSC Core Fund 3Q 2016 Closed 2Q 2020 $30,000,000 $8,303,686 72.3% InvestingWheelock Street V 4Q 2016 Closed 4Q 2020 $25,000,000 $5,880,097 76.5% InvestingFocus Senior Housing I 2Q 2017 Closed 2Q 2021 $25,000,000 $19,330,114 22.7% InvestingHammes Partners III 2Q 2017 Closed 2Q 2022 $25,000,000 $22,218,036 11.1% InvestingRECAP V 4Q 2018 Closed 4Q 2021 $25,000,000 $19,297,879 22.8% InvestingAscentris Value Add Fund III 3Q 2019 Closed 3Q 2023 $25,000,000 $25,000,000 7.6% InvestingWheelock Street VI 4Q 2019 Closed 1Q 2024 $20,000,000 $20,000,000 0.0% Recently ClosedTotal Non-Core Portfolio $380,000,000 $156,794,487 58.7%Total Portfolio $557,880,529 $156,794,487 71.9%
Cor
eN
on-C
ore
Performance Summary
8
Note: Sub-Portfolio and Total Portfolio composite performance figures include data from liquidated investments not shown in table
Investment Market Value% of RE Portfolio % Funded 1 % Realized3 SI IRR (Gross) 4 SI IRR (Net) 5
Net Equity Multiple 6
Morgan Stanley Prime $82,323,513 23.3% 100.0% 50.9% 6.4% 5.4% 1.70xJPMorgan SPF $76,675,524 21.7% 100.0% 46.8% 4.9% 4.2% 1.51x
$158,999,037 45.1% 100.0% 49.0% 5.7% 4.9% 1.60xJDM Partners I $26,578,181 7.5% 97.2% 32.2% 9.9% 8.8% 1.98xRECAP III $4,352,092 1.2% 78.9% 88.6% 12.3% 8.6% 1.18xWheelock Street I $2,240,162 0.6% 81.4% 94.4% 35.8% 24.9% 1.71xNorthwood Series IV $17,933,343 5.1% 32.1% 49.6% 18.2% 12.9% 1.48xWheelock Street II $10,585,775 3.0% 71.0% 73.1% 28.8% 18.7% 1.55xNorthwood Series V $30,457,855 8.6% 66.9% 21.9% 13.0% 9.9% 1.36xRECAP IV $22,127,784 6.3% 80.5% 27.6% 12.4% 8.9% 1.25xHSI V $18,543,271 5.3% 67.6% 17.3% 24.0% 15.5% 1.26xSC Core Fund $23,692,222 6.7% 72.3% 5.7% 7.8% 6.9% 1.14xWheelock Street V $19,556,138 5.5% 76.5% 5.3% 8.9% 2.9% 1.03xFocus Senior Housing I $6,212,091 1.8% 22.7% 7.4% 16.5% 7.9% 1.09xHammes Partners III $2,113,435 0.6% 11.1% 12.0% 15.7% -26.1% 0.86xRECAP V $7,960,406 2.3% 22.8% 12.7% N/A N/A N/AAscentris Value Add Fund III $1,502,681 0.4% 7.6% 32.0% N/A N/A N/AWheelock Street VI $0 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A N/A
$193,855,436 54.9% 56.4% 50.8% 15.9% 11.7% 1.37x$352,854,473 100.0% 70.8% 50.0% 8.0% 6.5% 1.46x
Cor
e
Total Core Portfolio
Total PortfolioTotal Non-Core Portfolio
Non
-Cor
e
Performance Summary
9
4Q2019 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr SICore 2.0% 6.0% 7.7% 9.5% 7.7% 4.9% 1.60x
Non-Core 5.0% 14.1% 14.6% 12.5% 15.3% 11.7% 1.37xTotal Portfolio 3.6% 9.8% 10.8% 11.0% 8.6% 6.5% 1.46xNCREIF ODCE 1.3% 5.6% 7.3% 9.3% 6.3% - -
Net IRR 4 Net EM 5Time-Weighted Returns (Gross)
Diversification
10
Portfolio is well diversified by both Geography and Property Type Portfolio will continue to be primarily focused in North America (U.S.), with recent
commitments to Ascentris VA III and Wheelock VI Exposure to “niche” property types with defensive cash flows such as medical office
buildings and senior housing will increase as capital continues to be called in Hammes III and Focus Senior Housing Fund I
Global United States
Leverage Profile
11
Modest use of leverage across the Real Estate Portfolio
Non-Core Portfolio LTV Ratio of less than 50% reflects a focus on managers and strategies that can perform without excess leverage risk
Total Portfolio Loan-toValue (LTV) 7: 39.9%Core Portfolio LTV: 20.9%Non-Core Portfolio LTV: 49.3%
Weighted-Average Interest Rate: 3.8%
Fee Summary 8
12
Gross-net return spread for 4Q2019 is above average, due to incentive fee accruals based on outsized appreciation returns during the quarter
Incentive fees for the quarter primarily charged in Northwood IV, Northwood V, Wheelock II and Morgan Stanley Prime
Type 4Q2019Quarterly
Avg.AssetMgmt. 0.32% 0.29%
Incentive 0.28% 0.11%Other 0.00% 0.00%
Total 0.60% 0.40%
RE Portfolio Fees(% of Market Value)
Subsequent Events
Below are some key portfolio updates that occurred subsequent to the end of 4Q2019:
1Q2020 Core Portfolio Flash Returns:
JP Morgan SPF: +1.6% (gross)
Morgan Stanley Prime: +1.5% (gross)
Ascentris Value Added Fund III
In March, the fund acquired Summit V, a Class A office property located in Aliso Viejo, CA
Focus Senior Housing I
The fund called approximately $3.4 million from COPERS in March to fund renovations projects at several properties
Hammes Partner III
In March, the fund called approximately $1.7 million of capital from COPERS to repay the subscription line utilized to acquire several medical office properties during the second half of 2019
SC Core
During Q1 2020, the fund called approximately $8.3 million from COPERS to fund the acquisition of Project Chicago (office in Sydney), Project Royal (office in Sydney), and Project Republic (logistics in Seoul)
Wheelock Street Real Estate Fund II
In January, the fund sold land in Boston that had previously been planned for development of a new multifamily property. The fund also fully realized the New England Office portfolio investment in January, resulting in a 73% Gross IRR and a 1.7x EM. Approximately $1.3 million was distributed in February to COPERS as a result of these dispositions
Wheelock Street Real Estate Fund VI
The fund made its first capital call to COPERS in April for the acquisition of an industrial property in Boston, MA
13
2019 Annual Real Estate Portfolio Review
2019 Activities
15
The portfolio generated over $27 million of gain during 2019 Distributions outweighed contributions during the year, due to strong disposition
activity as well as partial redemptions of JP Morgan SPF and Morgan Stanley Prime
Portfolio Growth & Timeline
16REC
AP II
JDM
I
JP Morgan SPF
Morgan Stanley Prim
e
Wheelock Street I
Northw
ood Series IV
Wheelock Street II
Northw
ood Series V
RECA
P IV
HSI V
SC C
ore FundW
heelock Street V
Ham
mes III
Focus Senior Housing I
TA Realty IX
RECA
P III
Wrightw
ood HYP II
RECA
P V
Ascentris V
A III
Wheelock Street V
I
Performance Summary(Returns as of 12/31/2019)
17
InvestmentCOPERS Vintage
% of RE Portfolio % Funded 1 % Realized 3 SI IRR (Net) 5
Net Equity Multiple 6
Performance Compared to
Expectations 9
Morgan Stanley Prime 2006 23.3% 100.0% 50.9% 5.4% 1.70xJPMorgan SPF 2007 21.7% 100.0% 46.8% 4.2% 1.51x
45.1% 100.0% 49.0% 4.9% 1.60x
Wrightwood HYP II 2009 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 7.5% 1.20xRECAP II 2009 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 15.1% 1.30xTA Realty IX 2010 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 10.4% 1.60xJDM Partners I 2010 7.5% 97.2% 32.2% 8.8% 1.98xRECAP III 2012 1.2% 78.9% 88.6% 8.6% 1.18xWheelock Street I 2012 0.6% 81.4% 94.4% 24.9% 1.71xNorthwood Series IV 2014 5.1% 32.1% 49.6% 12.9% 1.48xWheelock Street II 2014 3.0% 71.0% 73.1% 18.7% 1.55xNorthwood Series V 2015 8.6% 66.9% 21.9% 9.9% 1.36xRECAP IV 2015 6.3% 80.5% 27.6% 8.9% 1.25xHSI V 2016 5.3% 67.6% 17.3% 15.5% 1.26xSC Core Fund 2016 6.7% 72.3% 5.7% 6.9% 1.14xWheelock Street V 2016 5.5% 76.5% 5.3% 2.9% 1.03x TBDFocus Senior Housing I 2017 1.8% 22.7% 7.4% 7.9% 1.09x TBDHammes Partners III 2017 0.6% 11.1% 12.0% -26.1% 0.86x TBDRECAP V 2018 2.3% 22.8% 12.7% N/A N/A TBDAscentris Value Add Fund III 2019 0.4% 7.6% 32.0% N/A N/A TBDWheelock Street VI 2019 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A TBD
54.9% 56.4% 50.8% 11.7% 1.37x100.0% 70.8% 50.0% 6.5% 1.46x
Cor
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Total Core Portfolio
Total PortfolioTotal Non-Core Portfolio
Non
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ore
Portfolio Storylines
Reduced Investment Velocity as Portfolio Achieves Target Allocation₋ Made only one new commitment during CY 2019:
Wheelock VI: Re-up with one of COPERS’ best performing managers, focused on diversified U.S. real estate strategies including industrial, multifamily, single-family residential, office, hospitality and retail
₋ Redeemed $40M from core portfolio holdings to rebalance
Non-Core Portfolio Investments Drove Returns as Core Portfolio Provided Consistent, But Reduced Performance₋ Non-Core Portfolio returned 14.1% for calendar year 2019, driven by an annual
appreciation return of 11.7% ₋ Core Portfolio returned 6.0% for 2019, a notable reduction from 2018 (+8.5%)
U.S. core valuations remain near or at all-time highs in most markets
Non-Core Investments Actively Returning Capital₋ Over $32 million in distributions from Non-Core Portfolio in 2019 (up from $25M in
2018)₋ TA Realty IX fully liquidated in 1Q 2019₋ RECAP III (89%) and Wheelock Street I (94%) are substantially realized
18
Projected Geographic Diversification
19
Portfolio Expected to Remain Well-Diversified Approximately 2/3 of unfunded commitments in domestic strategies
₋ While maintaining allocation to international markets to diversify risk₋ Will consider re-allocating to strategies focused on Europe market in the
coming years as conditions warrant Portfolio will continue to focus primarily on the U.S. market
Real Estate Investment Pacing Study
20
COPERS Real Estate Portfolio has achieved its long-term allocation target of 12% However, new investments are necessary to replace capital being returned by mature funds Pacing analysis calls for approximately $20-$25 million of new investments per year over
the next several years, a reduction from the approximately $50 million / year pace achieved in recent years
Real Estate Investment Pacing Study
21
The pacing analysis was substantially impacted by COPERS portfolio value declines during 1Q2020
The projected Real Estate Portfolio allocation is more in-line with the target allocation (12%) when utilizing the 12/31/2019 COPERS Total Portfolio Value
2019 COPERS Real Estate Goals Met
22
Actively Monitor Investments and Maintain “Steady State” Portfolio has achieved its long-term target allocation
Selectively Make New Non-Core Commitments as Opportunities Arise Around the World Committed $20 million to Wheelock Street Capital RE Fund VI in December 2019,
one of COPERS’ best performing real estate managers
Perform Fee Reconciliations on Recently-Liquidated Investments TA Realty IX fully liquidated during 1Q2019; memo presented in May 2019
No other full portfolio liquidations occurred in 2019
Maintain Active Engagement with Managers to Identify and Avoid Any Investment Pitfalls Alignium remains in constant communication with COPERS’ real estate
managers through regular update meetings, as well as representation on fund advisory boards
COPERS Real Estate Priorities for 2020 and Beyond
23
Actively Engage with Managers to Review Business Plans as Result of COVID-19 The current situation is dynamic, requiring active engagement with managers to
address COVID-19 impacts in real time
Selectively Make New Commitments as Opportunities Arise Focus on sectors and strategies that will benefit in face of long-term implications
of COVID-19, such as select industrial strategies, datacenters, and multifamily residential
While the portfolio has reached its long-term allocation target, COPERS needs to invest capital on a yearly basis to maintain a “steady state” of investment
Active Engagement with Board, Staff, and Managers to Troubleshoot Potential Problems in Real Estate Portfolio Alignium remains in constant communication with COPERS’ real estate
managers through regular update meetings, as well as representation on fund advisory boards
Push managers to raise adequate property-level reserves, work with lenders and de-risk portfolios
Appendix
4Q2019 Portfolio NAV Summary
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Note that figures may not sum to ending values due to differences in fee accruals and payment
Investment Opening Value Net Income Net Appreciation Capital Called Capital Distributed Ending Value
Morgan Stanley Prime 101,773,413$ 683,927$ 870,900$ -$ 21,004,727$ 82,323,513$
JPMorgan SPF 75,611,923$ 542,866$ 986,400$ 191,689$ 657,354$ 76,675,524$ 177,385,336$ 1,226,793$ 1,857,300$ 191,689$ 21,662,081$ 158,999,037$
JDM Partners I 27,167,368$ (163,697)$ 105,014$ -$ 530,504$ 26,578,181$ RECAP III 4,208,059$ (2,048)$ 18,910$ 166,825$ 39,653$ 4,352,092$ Wheelock Street I 2,558,191$ (1,347)$ (100,566)$ 54,029$ 270,145$ 2,240,162$ Northwood Series IV 18,501,540$ 73,998$ 624,899$ 357,957$ 1,625,053$ 17,933,343$ Wheelock Street II 11,001,955$ 92,799$ 93,930$ -$ 602,909$ 10,585,775$ Northwood Series V 28,168,429$ (27,361)$ 2,399,680$ 618,375$ 701,271$ 30,457,855$ RECAP IV 22,170,552$ (736)$ 1,866,285$ 644,059$ 2,552,376$ 22,127,784$ HSI V 18,467,886$ (1,587,418)$ 1,235,712$ 811,385$ 384,295$ 18,543,271$ SC Core Fund 23,075,326$ 836,425$ (264,697)$ 45,168$ -$ 23,692,222$ Wheelock Street V 13,672,071$ (57,406)$ 452,442$ 5,489,031$ -$ 19,556,138$ Focus Senior Housing I 6,621,739$ 41,795$ 26,362$ -$ 477,805$ 6,212,091$ Hammes Partners III 1,173,040$ (64,916)$ 79,173$ 1,002,012$ 75,874$ 2,113,435$ RECAP V 3,968,873$ (730)$ 2,299,666$ 2,307,981$ 615,385$ 7,960,406$ Ascentris Value Add Fund III -$ (256,547)$ (128,549)$ 2,593,910$ 706,134$ 1,502,681$
180,755,029$ (1,117,189)$ 8,708,261$ 14,090,732$ 8,581,404$ 193,855,436$
358,140,365$ 109,604$ 10,565,561$ 14,282,421$ 30,243,485$ 352,854,473$
Cor
e
Total Core Portfolio
Total Non- Core PortfolioTotal Portfolio
Non
- Cor
e
Definitions & Footnotes
1 Commitment Funded Percentage (“% Funded”) – The percentage of the investor’s commitment that has been called by the manager to date, less any capital returned during the investment period that is deemed to be recallable.
2 Investment Status Definitions:
Recently Closed-Investment is awaiting first capital call designated for investment purposes
Investing- Investment actively making commitments to new underlying investments; within stated investment period
Stabilized- Investment is fully invested and unlikely to make near-term return of capital distributions
Harvesting- Investment is actively divesting
Nearly Liquidated- Investment is substantially divested of assets (typically > 80% realized)
Liquidated- Investment has divested of all assets and either holds cash or no balance at all
3 Realization Percentage (“% Realized”) – The percentage of an investment’s cumulative distributions to date relative to the total value of the fund, measured as a sum of the cumulative distributions to date and the remaining investment value.
4 Since Inception Gross Internal Rate of Return (“SI-IRR GROSS”) – Reflects the implied discount rate equating the present value of an investment’s cash outflows and the remaining market value to the present value of the investment’s cash inflows, excluding any impact of fees charged or accrued.
5 Since Inception Net Internal Rate of Return (“SI-IRR NET”) - Reflects the implied discount rate equating the present value of an investment’s cash outflows and the remaining market value to the present value of the investment’s cash inflows, accounting for the impact of fees.
6 Net Equity Multiple (“NET EM”) – The sum of cumulative distributions and remaining investment value divided by total paid-in-capital, accounting for the impact of fees.
7 Loan-to-Value Ratio (“LTV %”) – Ratio of all outstanding direct debt obligations divided by the fair value of the fund’s gross real estate asset value.
8 Fee Summary – Fees percentages shown reflect fees paid relative to beginning portfolio market value.
9 Performance Compared to Expectations – Alignium’s assessment of the investment’s performance to date relative to the original investment strategy and target returns.
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Disclaimer of Warranties and Limitation of Liability
This document was prepared by Alignium, LLC (“Alignium”) and includes information and data from some or all of the following sources: investment managers, custodian banks, client staff, specialty investment consultants, actuaries, plan administrators/record-keepers, index providers, as well as other third-party sources as directed by the client or as we believe necessary or appropriate. Alignium makes no warranties and disclaims responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of information or data provided or methodologies employed by any external source. Alignium has taken reasonable care to ensure the accuracy of the information or data but disclaims responsibility for the accuracy of information or data received from outside sources. This document is provided for the client’s internal use only and does not constitute a recommendation by Alignium or an offer of, or a solicitation for, any particular security and it is not intended to convey any guarantees as to the future performance of the investment products, asset classes, or capital markets.
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