4q 2011 nashville industrial
DESCRIPTION
This report details the industrial market in Nashville for the fourth quarter.TRANSCRIPT
4Q
2011
2012
Forcast
VACANCY
NET ABSORPTION
CONSTRUCTION
RENTAL RATE
MARKET REPORTNASHVILLE
www.ColliersNashville.com
Market On the Right Track; 2012 Forecast Is PositiveThe end of 2011 brought a small sigh of relief in the commercial real estate industry. After a couple of rough years, this past year brought glimmers of hope as the market began to improve. The market’s momentum picked up and by the end of the year, absorption posted a positive 1,477,068 square feet. This is a drastic turnaround from the negative 1,450,477 square feet absorption at the end of 2010.
In addition to positive absorption, vacancy rates have started to drop, falling 90 base points from 2010’s fourth quarter to 2011’s fourth quarter. Contributing to this were several large transactions that were inked this year. This includes LKQ Corporations’ 105,600 square foot lease in the Southeast submarket and Sky High Sports’ 51,960 square foot lease in the Southeast submarket.
MARKET INDICATORS
4Q 2011 | INDUSTRIAL
Nashville Industrial MarketSummary of Statistics, Q4 2011
Vacancy Rate: 11.3%
Absorption: 462,046 SF
Under Construction: 1,624,000 SF
Asking Rents Per Square Feet: Overall Rental Rates: $4.24Warehouse - Distribution: $3.91Light Industrial: $3.07Heavy - Mfg: $3.00Bulk Warehouse: $3.12Flex/R&D: $7.49
Quarterly Comparisons and Totals
QUARTER BUILDINGSTOTAL
INVENTORY SF
DIRECT
VACANT
DIRECT
VACANCY
RATE
SUBLEASE
VACANCY
RATE
NET
ABSORPTION
CURRENT QTR
NET
ABSORPTION
YTD SF
UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
SF
AVG
ASKING
RATE
Q4.11 1,940 158,955,449 17,928,840 11.3% 1.4% 462,046 1,477,068 1,624,000 $4.24
Q3.11 1,944 159,219,825 18,368,566 11.5% 1.4% 811,107 774,327 3,124,000 $4.51
Q2.11 1,944 159,138,430 19,577,486 12.3% 1.4% (115,610) (111,324) 589,000 $5.44
Q1.11 1,946 158,970,444 19,153,453 12.3% 1.6% 479,828 479,828 2,032,000 $4.27
Q4.10 1,950 158,292,862 19,349,141 12.2% 1.7% (478,523) (1,450,577) 2,032,000 $4.18
By Property Type
BUILDING TYPE BUILDINGS
TOTAL
INVENTORY
SF
DIRECT
VACANT
DIRECT
VACANCY
RATE
SUBLEASE
VACANCY
RATE
NET
ABSORPTION
CURRENT QTR
NET
ABSORPTION
YTD SF
AVG
ASKING
RATE
Warehouse - Distribution 1,050 49,032,051 5,373,094 11.0% 0.72% 245,937 62,642 $3.91
Light Industrial 560 58,188,985 2,661,192 4.6% 0.56% 122,730 (61,781) $3.07
Heavy - Mfg 7 855,347 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 $3.00
Bulk Warehouse 98 38,774,808 8,062,905 20.8% 3.6% 15,600 1,521,025 $3.12
Flex/R&D 225 12,104,258 1,831,649 15.1% 1.26% 77,779 (44,818) $7.49
-
Updated 7-2011
New and current construction projects have also added to the momentum. Late in 2011, Amazon.com announced that it would build two fulfillment centers in Middle Tennessee with a ground breaking scheduled in the beginning on 2012. In addition to this, the area has several multi-year projects like the Nissan Battery Plant and the Hemlock Semiconductor Plant that are still under construction. This indicates a confidence in the area and its ability to host new businesses. Most importantly, these new projects will bring thousands of jobs to the Middle Tennessee region, reenforcing the trend of momentum.
The forecast for 2012 is positive, with several deals already in the works. We believe that vacancy rates will continue to drop, absorption will stay positive and asking rates will stabilize. A few points to focus on are the impacts of the upcoming presidential election, lowering unemployment rates and Nashville’s ability to continue to bring new business to the area.
Flex/R&D
Bulk Warehouse
Heavy - Mfg
Light Industrial
Warehouse - Distribution
2Q 2011 | Vacancy Space By Type
-100000
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
Nort
h
Sou
thw
est
Wes
t
Sout
heas
t
East
IBD
2Q 2011 | Net Absorption By Submarket
RECENT SALES TRANSACTIONSSALES ACTIVITY
PROPERTY BUYER SALE PRICE SIZE SF SUBMARKET
Southpark & Centrepoint Portfolio Crow Holdings $56,700,000 1,778,400 Southeast
Commerce Farms 3 PanCal $9,583,600 456,500 East
1901 Columbia Avenue City of Franklin $2,300,000 40,458 Southeast
RECENT LEASING TRANSACTIONSLEASING ACTIVITY
PROPERTY ADDRESS TENANT SIZE SF TYPE SUBMARKET
501 Mason Road LKQ Corporation 105,600 New Southeast
2140 Dayton Avenue FSi, Inc. 91,000 Renewal IBD
1260 Heil Quaker Blvd Singer Sewing Company 87,450 New Southeast
Airpark Business Center XI Sky High Sports 51,960 New Southeast
1253 Heil Quaker Blvd Austin Foam Products 40,800 Expansion Southeast
Elm Hill Industrial Center 4 Wilson Art 35,712 New East
DEFINITIONS
Absorption - The net change in occupied space between the current quarter and the previous quarter, calculated by summing all the positive changes in occupancy and subtracting all the negative changes in occupancy.
Available SF - Space currently being marketed for lease or sublease.
Total Building SF - All single & multi tenant office buildings above 20,000 SF excluding medical, government and owner occupied.
Vacancy Rate - Percentage rate of the total amount of physically vacant space divided by the total amount of existing inventory.
*Bold text denotes Colliers International transaction.
P. 2 | COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
MARKET REPORT | Q4 2011 | INDUSTRIAL | NASHVILLE
UPDATE Market Comparisons
INDUSTRIAL MARKET
SUBMARKET BLDGSTOTAL
INVENTORY SF
DIRECT VACANT
SF
DIRECT VACANCY
RATE
DIRECT VACANCY
RATE PRIOR QTR
SUBLEASE VACANCY
RATE
NETABSORPTION CURRENT QTR
SF
NET ABSORPTION
YTD SF
AVG ASKING RATE
EAST 305 26,259,908 4,714,769 18.0% 17.9% 0.6% 18,911 366,099 $3.94
Bulk Warehouses 29 12,852,289 3,776,605 29.4% 29.4% 0.0% 0 639,120 $3.09
Flex/R&D 42 1,846,181 311,371 16.9% 15.2% 0.01% (46,801) (114,454) $7.75
Heavy - Mfg 1 76,058 0 0.0% - 0.0% 0 0 -
Light Industrial 87 5,277,623 82,000 1.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0 (62,000) $3.66
Warehouse - Distribution 146 6,207,757 544,793 8.8% 9.2% 2.3% 65,712 (96,567) $4.02
NORTH 450 39,866,721 3,081,188 7.7% 7.5% 2.0% (97,301) 248,417 $3.55
Bulk Warehouses 19 6,995,658 728,000 10.4% 9.5% 6.2% (90,000) (43,000) $3.13
Flex/R&D 40 1,580,142 238,188 15.1% 26.9% 0.0% (5,300) (7,214) $6.54
Heavy - Mfg 1 314,125 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 $3.00
Light Industrial 140 17,073,026 404,725 2.4% 2.6% 1.3% 47,214 75,721 $2.63
Warehouse - Distribution 250 13,903,770 1,710,275 12.3% 11.9% 1.1% (49,215) 222,910 $3.15
SOUTHEAST 419 50,677,119 6,881,099 13.6% 15.2% 2.1% 359,467 916,796 $4.20
Bulk Warehouses 44 17,302,331 3,530,300 20.4% 22.2% 5.6% 105,600 952,905 $3.09
Flex/R&D 79 4,355,439 818,134 18.8% 26.9% 0.6% 121,974 27,348 $7.39
Heavy - Mfg 3 149,990 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 -
Light Industrial 103 17,245,482 926,890 5.4% 5.3% 0.1% 0 (4,350) $3.40
Warehouse - Distribution 190 11,623,877 1,605,775 13.8% 15.3% 0.4% 131,893 (59,107) $4.22
SOUTHWEST 235 13,617,374 774,981 5.7% 6.5% 0.8% 91,540 134,758 $6.43
Bulk Warehouses 4 918,130 28,000 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0 (28,000) $4.50
Flex/R&D 42 3,389,764 314,182 9.3% 9.9% 0.5% 10,273 52,625 $8.12
Heavy - Mfg 1 100,000 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 -
Light Industrial 58 3,383,217 66,414 2.0% 4.5% 2.4% 86,320 86,320 -
Warehouse - Distribution 130 5,826,263 366,385 6.3% 6.2% 0.1% (5,053) 23,813 $4.84
WEST 125 10,581,561 796,887 7.5% 7.4% 0.0% (16,900) (163,177) $3.23
Bulk Warehouses 1 500,000 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 - -
Light Industrial 53 7,480,503 725,459 9.7% 9.5% 0.0% (16,900) (176,835) $3.18
Warehouse - Distribution 71 2,601,058 71,428 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0 13,658 $3.48
IBD 406 17,952,766 1,679,916 9.4% 7.0% 0.6% 106,329 (25,825) $4.42
Bulk Warehouses 1 206,400 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 -
Flex/R&D 22 932,732 149,774 16.1% 14.7% 10.9% (2,367) (3,123) $7.19
Heavy - Mfg 1 215,174 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 -
Light Industrial 119 7,729,134 455,704 5.9% 1.9% 0.0% 6,096 19,363 $3.05
Warehouse - Distribution 263 8,869,326 1,074,438 12.1% 10.9% 0.0% 102,600 (42,065) $3.75
GRAND TOTAL 1,940 158,955,449 17,928,840 11.3% 11.5% 1.4% 462,046 1,477,068 $4.24
MARKET REPORT | Q4 2011 | INDUSTRIAL | NASHVILLE
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | P. 3
UNITED STATES:
NashvilleNate GreeneManaging Partner300 BroadwayNashville, TN, 37201TEL +1 615 850 2729FAX +1 615 850 3229
MARKETING DIRECTOR
NashvilleAllison Schepman300 BroadwayNashville, TN, 37201TEL +1 615 850 2748FAX +1 615 244 2957
512 offices in 61 countries on 6 continents
• $1.5 billion in annual revenue• 979 million square feet under management
• 12,500 professionals
Copyright © Colliers International
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it.
www.ColliersNashville.com
Accelerating success.
Jerry MieleDIR +1 615 850 2735
Affiliate Broker
Bill BuckleyDIR +1 615 850 2705
Affiliate Broker
Max SmithDIR +1 615 850 2722
Affiliate Broker
Terry Smith, CCIM SIORDIR +1 615 850 2724
Partner
Tom Davis, SIORDIR +1 615 850 2730
Partner
ABOUT COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL – NASHVILLE Collier International Nashville is one of the largest full service commercial real
estate firms in the region. Its brokers provide a myriad of services to owners
and tenants with a commitment to excellence that has won them the respect
of local, national and international clients for many years. With more than 25
employees, the firm serves clients ranging from Fortune 500 corporations,
major banks and insurance companies to investors, private institutions and small
businesses.
Figure 1: Nashville Industrial Submarkets include North, East, Southest, Southwest, West and IBD.
Gallatin Rd.
Leba
non P
l.
West E
nd A
ve.
Harding Pl.
O ld Hickory Blvd.
Fran
klin
Moores Ln.
Murfreesboro Rd.
Nolensville Rd.
Done
lson
Pike
Briley
Pkwy.
Bell Rd
.
Woodmont Blvd.
Buena Vista
132
12
96
SOUTHWEST
WEST
SOUTHEAST
EAST
NORTH
IBD
Nate Greene, CCIMDIR +1 615 850 2729
Managing Partner
MARKET REPORT | Q4 2011 | INDUSTRIAL | NASHVILLE