4b hoff assessing and managing risk

QuotesQuotes

• Plato– “Necessity is the mother of invention”

• Mark Twain – “Necessity is the mother of taking chances”

• Mike Hoff“ f– “Taking unnecessary chances [risks] is the mother of… invasion”

– “Invasion should be the mother of:Invasion should be the mother of:• Invention and• PREVENTION”PREVENTION

Assessing and Managing Risk: What Is the Difference?

How Can We Assess and Manage Risk?Who Can Help Me?Who Can Help Me?

Michael HoffU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Bl i t MNBloomington, MN

DefinitionsDefinitions

• Risk Assessment:– Risk characterization

• Risk Management:– …weighing [and implementing] policy alternatives


• Risk Screening:g– Rapid (hours) risk assessment


• Species Risk:p– Risk characterization of a species independent of

whether it is being moved by humans• Pathway Risk:

– Human means, and other means of transport/movement of a single or many invasivetransport/movement, of a single or many invasive species

A Label on a jar of peanuts

Historically, FWS Risk Assessments St t f th A twere State-of-the-Art

• If that art was finger paintingg p g

Bests Predictors of Species Invasionests ed cto s o Spec es as o

F i b t di t f i i• For a species, best predictors of invasiveness are:– “History of invasiveness”

“Climate/Habitat match:”– Climate/Habitat match:• Climate match

– Between locations where established,Between locations where established, and

– Target locations (e.g., US)• Habitat Match

– “Propagule Pressure”

My/FWS Approach: Species Rapid Risk Assessment Spec es ap d s ssess e t

(Screening Process)

• Detailed (6 page) procedure used to• Detailed (6 page) procedure used to conduct the screening

• Information/data/outputs/synthesis p ypackaged in standardized format

• Supervisory and other internal peer reviewreview

Species Screening Report Outline

• Native Range, and Status in the United States• Biology and Ecology• Biology and Ecology • Impacts of Introductions• Global DistributionGlobal Distribution• Climate Matching with US• Risk Assessment

– Summary of Risk to the US• High Risk Species:

– Projections of establishment and impacts in US• Within habitats, and for ecosystem components

References• References

Great Lakes Restoration InitiativeG eat a es esto at o t at e

• I have received funding for conducting rapid screening to g g p gsupport regulatory and non-regulatory decision making– Last three years 2,000 species screened in DRAFT

fform• Screening reports are being posted online

– FWS website– FWS website– Comments on reports enabled

FWS Screening Results: Species ExamplesSpecies Examples

Spiny WaterfleaSp y ate ea


• History of Invasiveness:y– It has caused major changes in the zooplankton

community structure…competes directly with small fi h d h i t l ktfishes and can have impact on zooplankton community (USEPA 2008).


• Risk Assessment Elements– History of Invasiveness: High– Climate Match: High– Overall Risk Assessment Category: High

• Certainty of Assessment: High

Viral Hemorrhagic Septicemia (VHS)a e o ag c Sept ce a ( S)

• Internationally significant fish diseasey g– Caused massive mortalities of fishes in many areas

• Documented in Lake Superior, other Great Lakes, elsewhere

• Can be transported in water and bait

History of Invasiveness: VHSsto y o as e ess S

• Mortalities of fishes including:g– Bluegill– Black crappie– Muskellunge– Yellow perch

O– Other species

VHSS• Risk Assessment Elements

– History of Invasiveness: HighHistory of Invasiveness: High– Climate Match: High– Overall Risk Assessment Category: High g y g


Quagga MusselQuagga usse



Monoecious Hydrilla• RAMP climate match: Current conditions

– High climate match with MN

Monoecious Hydrillao oec ous yd a



Uncertain Risk SpeciesUncertain Risk Species

MarmorkrebsClimate Match for Continental U.S.:

Current Climate Conditions

Ecological Risk Screening Summary:M k b i l ti t U SMarmorkrebs in relation to U.S.

• Risk Assessment Elements– History of Invasiveness: None– Climate Match: Medium– Overall Risk Assessment Category: Uncertain

Low Risk SpeciesLow Risk Species

Betta (Betta splendens)etta ( etta sp e de s)Risk Assessment • History of Invasiveness: None documentedHistory of Invasiveness: None documented

– No impacts documented.• Climate Match: Low (0.000 ‐ Lowest possible)• Overall Risk Assessment Category: Low

– Certainty of Assessment: High

Accounting for Climate Changeccou t g o C ate C a ge

• FWS has developed a tool that projects climate nichep p j– 2050, 2070– IPCC emission scenarios:

• No change• Increased impact scenarios

O– Output maps and scores climate match– Peer review completed

Results of Pathway Risk Assessment: yGreat Lakes Jurisdictional

Illegal Trade and Transport ofIllegal Trade and Transport ofLive Organisms

Methodset ods

• Pathway Risk Analysis Task Team: Questionnairey y Q– Submitted to GLFC LE Committee – Questionnaire responses/scores analyzed for:

• Risk Assessment – Level – & Confidence in assessment responses

Range of pathway risk ranks. (0 = No Risk, 4-6= Medium, 7-10 = High Risk)(0 No Risk, 4 6 Medium, 7 10 High Risk)

10Risk Rank

6789

Unacceptable

3456

Upper RangeLower Range

012

N/A

ConclusionsCo c us o s

• Risk Reduction needed in one or more jurisdictions forj– All Pathways except Biological Supply

Examples of Pathways for AIS(i ti l d )(in no particular order)

• Watercraft• Lake Service Providers• Live Bait• Water Gardens• Horticulture• Aquaria• Aquaria• Internet• Live FoodLive Food• Illegal stocking• Connections with infested waters

How Can I/We conduct risk Assessments?o Ca / e co duct s ssess e ts

• Species Risk Assessmentsp– I can train you, or provide completed products

How can I/We conduct risk Assessments?o ca / e co duct s ssess e ts

• Pathway Risk Assessmentsy– You can conduct pathway risk assessment by:

• [DISCLAIMER]– The following are EXAMPLES—for illustrative

purposes only


• Pathway Risk Assessmentsy– You CAN conduct pathway risk assessment by:

• During boat inspections:– Continue to document/record/enforce violations

(depending on authorities)Potentially ask questions about:– Potentially ask questions about:

» Whether boats were plying infested waters within the previous X days (boat risk)p y ( )

» Awareness/compliance with state regulations (boater risk)


• Pathway Risk Assessmentsy• Develop survey questions, and seek analytical

support from those with social science ti ???expertise…???» UMN Sea Grant?» UMN Extension?» UMN Extension?» ?FWS?» ?Others…

In the endt e e d

• We need to minimize risk of species and pathwaysp p y• Risks vary with location

– Thus, site-specific risk assessment and management needed for, at least, pathways

• You should work with others to assess risk and i k t t t “ l k ”manage risk to protect “your lake”

There is a silver bullet for AIS: Ri k P tiRisk Prevention

• Develop and implement a comprehensive prevention p p p pand management plan– Based on results of species and pathway risk

tassessments

Without a Risk-Based Prevention Program, you are working without a net you a e o g t out a etAre you comfortable with that?

Your Lake is in Our hands….f d f f t tifor now, and for future generations.

“Invasion should be the mother of invention/prevention”

4b hoff assessing and managing risk

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