44oast444444 2015 2016 gen44renw4ntly44b4 44ondayn44y44 … · 2017-02-03 · @ 0732 est wt1(1st m)...

IY8TW WZGTN 8WTZ GJTY NTX ITG WTN 2015 2016 February WrdV YXNJ Morning Brief MJLF & associates CHARTERING SHIP SALES PROJECT DEVELOPMENT CONSULTING & ASSOCIATES Dbb First Stamford Placew Stamfordw CT bAUb/ TelR OBk/bDkD/Ak/qbb FaxR OBk/bDkU55k/BA$ mjlfgrp@mjlfncom MJLF Research: Court Smith csmith@mjlfncom ICE MR csmithDb OBk/bDkD/Ak/qDB Research Comments Source: Bloomberg The US imported 212mn barrels of oil from Mexico in 2016C with most of the volume moving on Aframax tonnage to the US Gulf. The recent decline in the US/Mexican relationship and the potential for a trade war could place more of these import volumes in jeopardy. If a 20pc tariff is implemented by the USC we expect that there would be a significant drop off in these volumes. Some long term contracts would continueC but overall the trade would take a large hit. Individual recipients of the crude can be seen to the right. If the tax is implemented thoughC many of these barrels would now potentially move on Suezmaxes to Europe or VLCCs to the far east. This would be a significant benefit to the larger crude carriersC while kneecapping the Caribbean Aframax market. The Panamax marketC suffering from a drop in fuel oil cargoesC would also see less utilisation in Mexican ports. Guessing the probability of a border tax or the specifics is next to impossibleC but it could have far reaching impacts to the crude tanker market. Oil Prices coasted through the week with a gentle upwards trendw currently about Bpc up from Mondayn The BrentyDubai spread is now less than @/ybw boosting incentives to move west African crude eastn The Brent futures curve continues to flattenw but remains in weak contango through the first BA monthsn Puerto de Dos Bocas /bBv /bBA XM YXM IXM ZXM Bbls XM YXM IXM ZXM Bbls SHELL DEER PARK VALERO PORT ARTHUR EXXON BAYTOWN OILTANKING HOUSTON CHEVRON PASCAGOULA PHILLIPS ZZ LAKE CHARLES VALERO TEXAS CITY TOTAL PORT ARTHUR MOTIVA PORT ARTHUR PBF PAULSBORO PBF DELAWARE CITY SEAWAY TEXAS CITY MARATHON GARYVILLE HUNT MOBILE MONROE TRAINER VALERO CORPUS CHRISTI PBF CHALMETTE SHELL MARTINEZ CHEVRON EL SEGUNDO PLAINS STT JAMES Vessel Size Aframax MR Panamax Suezmax /Abmn Barrels v/b Afra Equivalents /B/mn Barrels $/D Afra Equivalents Pie charts labeled in Afra Equivalents/Year US Crude Oil Imports from Mexico

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Page 1: 44oast444444 2015 2016 gen44renw4ntly44B4 44ondayn44y44 … · 2017-02-03 · @ 0732 EST WT1(1st m) Dated Brent WT1/Brent HO-GO Brent/ Dubai $53.68 $56.32 ($2.41) $0.05 $1.95 Change

IY8TW WZGTN

8WTZ GJTY NTXITG

WTN

2015 2016

FebruaryCWrdVCYXNJMorningCBrief

MJLF & associates

CHARTERING SHIP SALES PROJECT DEVELOPMENT CONSULTING

&A SSOCIATES Dbb4First4Stamford4Placew4Stamfordw4CT4bAUb/TelR4OBk/bDkD/Ak/qbb4FaxR4OBk/bDkU55k/BA$

mjlfgrp@mjlfncom

MJLF Research: Court4Smith4csmith@mjlfncom444ICE4MR4csmithDb4444OBk/bDkD/Ak/qDB

Research

CommentsSource: Bloomberg

TheAUSAimportedA212mnAbarrelsAofAoilAfromAMexicoAinA2016CAwithAmostAofAtheAvolumeAmovingAonAAframaxAtonnageAtoAtheAUSAGulf.ATheArecentAdeclineAinAtheAUS/MexicanArelationshipAandAtheApotentialAforAaAtradeAwarAcouldAplaceAmoreAofAtheseAimportAvolumesAinAjeopardy.AIfAaA20pcAtariffAisAimplementedAbyAtheAUSCAweAexpectAthatAthereAwouldAbeAaAsignificantAdropAoffAinAtheseAvolumes.ASomeAlongAtermAcontractsAwouldAcontinueCAbutAoverallAtheAtradeAwouldAtakeAaAlargeAhit.AIndividualArecipientsAofAtheAcrudeAcanAbeAseenAtoAtheAright.AIfAtheAtaxAisAimplementedAthoughCAmanyAofAtheseAbarrelsAwouldAnowApotentiallyAmoveAonASuezmaxesAtoAEuropeAorAVLCCsAtoAtheAfarAeast.AThisAwouldAbeAaAsignificantAbenefitAtoAtheAlargerAcrudeAcarriersCAwhileAkneecappingAtheACaribbeanAAframaxAmarket.ATheAPanamaxAmarketCAsufferingAfromAaAdropAinAfuelAoilAcargoesCAwouldAalsoAseeAlessAutilisationAinAMexicanAports.AGuessingAtheAprobabilityAofAaAborderAtaxAorAtheAspecificsAisAnextAtoAimpossibleCAbutAitAcouldAhaveAfarAreachingAimpactsAtoAtheAcrudeAtankerAmarket.A

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VALEROCTEXASCCITY

TOTALCPORTCARTHUR

MOTIVACPORTCARTHUR