44 | NEW INNOVATIONS & PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS www.mmcpubl icat ions.co.uk

Fire Times Apri l/May 2016

Resource planning and performance reporting using Geographic Information Systems

Workload Modeller operates on data about when and where incidents occur, and relates this to a fire service’s resources and the constraints under which it operates. A significant number of fire and rescue services in England are using the software to explore the likely effects of making changes to resourcing strategies. By using realistic simulation modelling techniques, they are removing the guesswork in answering ‘What if?’ questions.

The services use the software to test the outcome of various resourcing scenarios, such as:• Closing, relocating and merging stations• Changing the number, type and location of

vehicles• Designing new shift patterns• Balancing the mix between wholetime and

retained resources.

Resource planning in North East England

Following introductions and a welcome from UK Sales Manager, Gary Randle, the workshop heard a presentation from Graeme Lockhart, Information Services Manager at County Durham and Darlington Fire and Rescue Service (CDDFRS). It was clear that Graeme spoke for all participants when he described the challenge his fire service faces: how to maintain a fast, efficient service and cut costs.

He opened his presentation with a map showing current 8, 11 and 15 minute response times for County Durham. It is an important map, as it establishes a base against which the impact of any changes in resource allocation can be compared. As we were to hear time and again throughout the workshop, average response time is a key metric in fire service performance reporting.

In his nine year career as a workload modelling specialist, Graeme has had to accommodate the impact on response times of a number of operational changes in the fire service. These include the deployment of target response vehicles, the introduction of day crewing stations, dual crewing of vehicles and the sharing of specialist vehicles with neighbouring fire and rescue services.

He showed how he creates index scores for scenario outcomes as a percentage of scores measured against best outcomes, calculated for service areas as a whole. However, Graeme was keen to point out that scenario outcomes also need to be made visible at individual stations. In a novel use of mapping, Graeme showed how he uses spreadsheets to summarise the scenarios he has simulated, and within the spreadsheet provides hyperlinks to maps which show the geographic impact of any resourcing changes. This allows non-technical or specialist users to interpret data and make robust decisions based upon the outcomes.

Modelling reality in Greater Manchester

Next to present was Clare Nolan, Strategic Risk Analyst at Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service (GMFRS). Clare cut to the chase regarding the need to optimise use of resources when she reported that GMFRS needs to find £14.79m savings by 2020.

She related that GMFRS has used different workload modelling software for at least 13 years. In 2014, GMFRS decided to standardise on a single product: Cadcorp Workload Modeller. Clare explained the decision was taken for a number of reasons.

Firstly, because the software is based on a Geographic Information System which GMFRS was already using. This simplified both the input and output of map data. Secondly, the application models scenarios based on incidents: a more realistic approach than modelling based on areas or zone, as in in previously used products. Thirdly, the software allows the fire and rescue services to associate bespoke road speeds in the road network, which are used to model mobilisation times leading to the creation of a more accurate model. Finally, because the modelling process is transparent, users are free to change almost any parameter or function.

Clare reported that GMFRS aims to make its base model reflect reality as closely as possible. In order to do this, simulations are based on data comprising over 100,000 incidents and over 135,000 mobilisations from the last three years. To enhance the base case, GMFRS has created a sophisticated risk model, built its own route cost network based on bespoke road speeds and incorporated staff training into the model.

To ensure its modelling for the Corporate and Integrated Risk Management Plan was as robust as possible, GMFRS has conducted multiple iterations to examine the impact of different shift patterns. Looking towards possible changes in the future, GMFRS is also considering the impact of the possible introduction of non-standard duty stations; changes in pump locations and the introduction of community response vehicles (CRVs). Clare is also preparing for a possible increase in co-responding by updating the base case model to incorporate incidents from the local ambulance services.

Representatives from 16 different fire and rescue services came together in Birmingham on 23 February to discuss best practices in resource planning. They all shared a common interest in a software product, Workload Modeller, developed by UK GIS and web mapping specialist, Cadcorp.

Graeme Lockhart, Information Services Manager at CDDFRS , speaking at the event

Response times County Durham: 8, 11, and 15 minutes

NEW INNOVATIONS & PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS | 45www.mmcpubl icat ions.co.uk

Fire Times Apri l/May 2016

Identifying and locating risk in Berkshire

George Cross, IRMP Project Officer at Royal Berkshire Fire and Rescue Service (RBFRS), reminded the workshop participants that before you can model the impact of different resource management scenarios, you first have to identify and locate risk.

He described the methodology which RBFRS has followed in defining and measuring risk. RBFRS measures risk as the multiple of likelihood and severity. Using this metric, it has been possible to establish risk by incident type using the last six years of data held by RBFRS. The severity of a particular type of incident is established by weighting those incidents which result in casualties as being 10 times more severe than those involving a rescue. Incidents involving fatalities are weighted as being 100 times more severe. Using this methodology, RBFRS is able to calculate a score of relative risk for different incident types or any combination of incident types.

As well as considering risk as defined by data from historic incidents, RBFRS is also using geodemographic data to identify the parts of the county which have high incidence of multiple deprivation. These are known to generate what is referred to as ‘societal risk’, and show a high propensity to generate call outs. George showed how the incidence of societal risk can also be mapped in the same way as incident risk, both as relative scores within Berkshire, and as scores relative to the rest of England.

The methodology therefore allows a calculation of any combination of societal and incident risk, thereby enabling better targeting of all Prevention, Protection and Response treatments.

Accommodating changeThe workshop was an opportunity not only

for attendees to learn from each other but also to hear from Cadcorp about the Workload Modeller product development roadmap, and to suggest future enhancements to a key resource planning tool. Cadcorp has continued to enhance Workload Modeller since the product was launched in 2008. Some enhancements have been driven by developments in hardware and software, including the adoption of 64-bt operating systems and standardised graphic user interfaces. Other enhancements have been driven by the need to take account of changes

in the ways fire and rescues services operate. These have included the use of life risk response targets, the introduction of new and specialist appliances, facilitating cover moves and introducing mixed shift patterns.

Given the challenges faced by UK fire and rescue services to manage reduced budgets and changes to their demand profile, we can expect continued interest in resource analysis products. These products will have to accommodate future changes in working practices - such as co-responding and dynamic mobilisation - if they are to help fire and rescue services meet the challenge described by the first speaker: maintaining fast, efficient service provision and cutting costs.www.cadcorp.com

Map showing the relative total risk (combining social and incident risk), by LSOA

Author: Richard Spooner, Marketing Manager, Cadcorp