INCCA Initial 4x4 Assessment Report:

Agriculture

S. Naresh Kumar*, P.K. Aggarwal,

R.C Upadhyay, E. Vivekanandan, R.M. Bhagat and others

*Division of Environmental Sciences

Indian Agricultural Research Institute

New Delhi-110012, India

nareshkumar.soora@gmail.com

Presentation at INCCA meeting

16th November, 2010

Outline • Introduction

• Methodology

• Assessments

– Western Ghats

– Costal region

– NE Region

– Himalayan region

– Dairy sector

• Assumptions and limitations

• Conclusions

• Future thrust

• Ecologically and economically important areas :

WG, Coastal areas, NE and Himalayan region

• Agriculture in these areas is highly diverse and

important for sustainable livelihood of the local

population

• High value crops (temperate fruits; spices, tea,

coffee; fisheries)

• This is the first time study on impact of climate

change on agriculture in these ecologically sensitive

regions

Methodology-

Controlled environment facilities used for

climate change studies at IARI

FACE, TGT, OTC

Deriving genetic coefficients

Methodology- Baseline yields

Genotype

coefficients

CO2

369

Methodology- Scenario yields

Genotype

coefficients

PRECIS A1 B2030 scenario data

Temperature (max, min) and rainfall

CO2

In 2030 scenario

Western Ghats

Agriculture in WG

– Large estates (tea, coffee and rubber)

– Other plantations and spices which are generally grown

as inter crops

– Annual crops based farming consisting of mainly paddy,

vegetables, pulses, tuber crops and millets

– Home-stead faming: one of the key features of this area,

where-in a large number of species (annuals and

perennials) are included

Rice, sorghum, maize, millets, coconut

Tea, coffee, cashew, rubber, spices

Local varieties, low inputs

Soil erosion, high rainfall

Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)

Irrigated rice rainfed sorghum

rainfed maize coconut

Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)

Reasoning change in cropping

pattern-Farmers’ perception

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Water

scarcity

Irrigation Increased

day temp.

Decreased

day temp.

Increased

night temp.

Decreased

night temp

Low rainfall Change in

raining

period

High wind

Input related constraints Climate/ weather related constraints

Fa

rme

rs (%

)0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Price of

produce

Cost of

cultivation

Fuel wood Yield Demand Preferance

to

seasonal

crops

Preferance

to

perennial

crops

Socio-economic constraints/ reasons

Farm

ers

(%)

Tapioca, Rice, Lemon grass Pepper, coconut, coffee, arecanut, ginger

Coastal DistrictsAgriculture in coastal districts

– Multi- dimentional, wide agro-biodiversity

– Varies from sustenance agriculture to commercial agriculture

– Annual crops

– Plantations

– Fisheries/ aqua culture

Rice, ground nut, coconut , cashew

Marine fish and shrimps

Sea level rise, salt water intrusion

High temperatures, heavy winds, cyclones, floods (east coast)

Irrigated rice Irrigated maize

Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)

Coconut

Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)

Marine fisheries- past trends –Oil sardine

0.1% - 1%

1% - 10%

10 % - 25%

25% - 50%

>50%

LONGITUDE(°E]

LATITUDE(°N)

1961-1976 1977-1986

1987-1996 1997-2006

Source: Vivekanandan et al., 2009

Possible responses of marine fishes to climate change

Extension of distributional boundary of small pelagics;

Extension of depth of occurrence –Indian mackerel; and

Phenological changes.

Change in spawning season of threadfin breams (Nemipterus japonicus and

N. mesoprion) off Chennai

Nemipterus japonicus: Change in spawning season off

Chennai

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980

1982

1984

1986

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Year

Sp

aw

ners

(%

)

October - March

April - September

N. mesoprion : Change in spawning season off Chennai

0

20

40

60

80

100

1983

1985

1987

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

Year

Sp

aw

ne

rs (

%) October-March

April-September

(Source: Vivekanandan and Rajagopalan, 2009)

The NE RegionAgriculture in NE region

– Rich biodiversity of agricultural crops (rice, tea, pulses)

– Rice, mustard

– Tea, jute, cotton, potato, sugarcane

– Agricultural practices

– Settled farming practice in plains, valleys, foothills and terrace slopes

– Shifting (Jhum) cultivation on hill slopes

– Prone to floods and soil erosion

– Home-stead faming

Rainfed rice Mustard

Projected impacts (PRECIS A1B 2030)

Wheat Potato

Himalayan region

Agriculture in Himalayan region

– Cereal-based production system (rice, wheat, maize, millets)

– Horticulture and/or agri-horti-based production system

(temperate fruits)

– High value horticulture (vegetables, mushroom, floriculture)

– Agri-horti-silvi-pastoral based production system

– Livestock-based production system

– Soil erosion, temperature rise, climatic extremes

Shift in apple production zone to higher altitudes in

Himachal Pradesh

Bhagat et al., 2009

Livestock productivity- Projections for 2030

Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) based assessment

• Himalayan region

• Projected to increase in THI in many parts of Himalayan region between

March-September with a maximum rise between April- July.

• Thermal discomfort is likely to increase with THI > 80

• North Eastern region

• Thermal discomfort is likely to increase between April-October months

with THI > 80

• Western ghats

• The THI is likely to increase in September-April months. Heat stress days

per annum are likely to increase with THI > 80.

• Coastal region

• The Coastal regions are likely to remain affected throughout the year in

2030 scenario with THI > 80.

The THI load

Assumptions and limitations of the study

• Area under crops in future is assumed to be similar to that in baseline

• Pest and disease incidence –similar to baseline period

• Future inter- annual

climatic variability and rainfall distribution is assumed to be similar as that

existed in baseline period

• Lack of representative farm level data

• The uncertainties of climate change scenarios particularly with reference

to rainfall

• Non consideration of socio-economic issues

Conclusions

• Climate change is projected to affect the yields of cereal crops such as rice, wheat, maize and sorghum in these ecologically sensitive areas if current management practices are followed

• The temperature humidity stress on livestock is projected to increase, warranting better shelter management

• Fish distribution may further extend along the Indian coast

Future thrust

Integrated impact and adaptation

assessment including all sectors of

agriculture

Developing specific adaptation strategies for

climatic risk

Assessment on Himalayan region