3q-2015 nkfd downtown calgary office market overview
TRANSCRIPT
3Q15 DOWNTOWN CALGARYMARKET OVERVIEW
Office Vacancy Rates (%)Calgary CBD & by Class for 3Q15
18.1%
11.6%
7.7%
12.8%
Class B
Class A
Class AA
Calgary CBD
Downtown OfficeClass AA, A, B & C Overview
Total Buildings: 147
Class AA: 17
Class A: 30
Class B: 21
Class C: 79
18.3%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Class C
Office Vacancy Rates (%)Calgary CBD & by CBD Submarkets for 3Q15
12.8%Calgary CBDClass C: 79
Total Rentable Space: 41.02 M SF
Under Construction: 3,827,500 SF
Headlease Vacancy: 7.0%Sublease Vacancy: 5.8%
Total Vacancy: 12.8%
3Q15 Absorption: -548,700 SF
YTD Absorption: -1 846 200 SFHistorical Net AbsorptionDowntown Calgary and year-to-date at 3Q-15
16.3%
11.3%
16.5%
11.6%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
West End Core
East End Core
Mid-West Core
Central Core
YTD Absorption: -1,846,200 SF
12.8%, Up from11.4% in 2Q15
Vacancy
-1,846,100 SFDown from -1,297,500 SF in 2Q15
Absorption
2Q15 3Q15Lease Rates0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
re F
eet
Downtown Calgary and year-to-date at 3Q-15
2Q15 3Q15Class AA: $28.35 $28.35Class A: $23.30 $21.60Class B: $20.20 $18.80Class C: $15.90 $14.80
Largest Tenants
Shell
Chevron
Shaw Communications
Enbridge Inc
-3,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,000,000 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
YTD
-15
Sq
ua
Large Blocks
Cenovus
Encana
Syncrude
AMEC
CNRL
Devon
Talisman Energy
Conoco Philips
Imperial Oil
g
Total
BP
Telus
MEG Energy
ERCB
StatOil
Pengrowth Energy
Enerplus
Husky OilScotia Centre BP Centre Bow Valley Square - II Devon Tower
Market Overview Contact:Michael Gigliuk, BComm (Fin.)Vice President, AssociateDir: 403-444-5662Mob: [email protected]
Source: Newmark Knight Frank Devencore -Calgary
700 – 2nd Street SW99,106SF, Flrs 25-31$40.00 - $42.00 GrossHeadlease
240 – 4th Avenue SW95,477 SF, Flrs 25-28$38.00 - $40.00 GrossSublease
205 – 5th Avenue SW92,111 SF, Flrs 8 - 15$40.00 - $42.00 GrossHeadlease
400 – 3rd Avenue SW58,557 SF, Flrs 11, 12, 14$40.00 - $42.00 GrossSublease
736 – 6th Avenue SW, Suite 2020Calgary, AB T2P 3T7
Newmark Knight Frank Devencorewww.devencorenkf.com
NKFD CORPORATE OVERVIEW
3Q 2015 Do nto n Calgar Market O er ie3Q-2015 Downtown Calgary Market OverviewAfter only three quarters, the year-to-date negative absorption has already far surpassed the previous annual record which occurred in 2009.
The third quarter 2015 survey recorded negative absorption of 548,700 square feet. The pace of additional space coming on the market picked-up when compared to the second quarter of this year. A few large energy and energy services firms; announced or initiated sizable layoffs or shed surplus space during the third quarter. This translated to just over 400,000 square feet of sublease space coming on the market. Sublease space recently put on the market by; Total E&P, Crescent Point, Conoco Philips and Worley Parsons contributed to the majority of the most recently available sublease offerings. Year-to-date absorption is now negative 1,846,100 square feet. Thereby, at only the third quarter, the downtown office market has s rpassed the pre io s orst absorption ear on record hich occ rred in 2009 The 2009
Who We Are
Newmark Knight Frank Devencore (NKFD) isCanada’s largest corporate real estate advisorexclusively representing office industrial and market has surpassed the previous worst absorption year on record, which occurred in 2009. The 2009
annual negative absorption totalled1,625,000 square feet. Total vacant square footage is now 5,234,700 square feet, the equivalent of over 2.5 Bow Towers.
The overall downtown office market vacancy rate is now 12.8%, up from the 11.4 % recorded at the end of the second quarter of 2015 and 4.5% higher than the vacancy rate, recorded at the end of 2014. The third quarter vacancy rate is still 2.9% below the near term peak vacancy rate recorded at the end of 2009, which was 15.7%, at the time. Landlords owning the best quality Class AA and A buildings, which accounts for 63% of the downtown inventory, only saw a slight increase in the headlease vacancy rate for their buildings at 0.2% each, moving up to 1.8% and 5.5% respectively and a combined rate of 3.5%. Thereby, rent is being paid on the combined percentage of 96.5% of their inventory. However, when sublease availability is included in the Class AA and A vacant inventory the overall average vacancy rate
exclusively representing office, industrial andretail space users.
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sublease availability is included in the Class AA and A vacant inventory, the overall average vacancy rate for the best quality buildings almost triples moving up to 9.5%. Class B and C landlords are sitting on headlease vacancy rates of 12.0% and 14.4% respectively. When sublease offerings are factored in, the combined Class B and C vacancy rate increases to just over 18%. Landlords for all building classes are inclined to settle on lease rates below the posted asking rates. However, the discount varies widely based on a number of variables unique to each suite or block of space and how readily the Landlord is willing to provided sizable Tenant improvement allowances and longer free rent periods. Landlords with the highest quality Class AA kept their asking rates virtually unchanged while the remaining Class A, B and C buildings had similar third quarter asking rate drops of 7%.
Class AA building average asking rental rates remained the same at $28.35 per square foot, during the third quarter, after experiencing a sizable drop over the previous six months. Class A, B and C building
• Offices across Canada and in 370 cities around the world
• Global team of over 12,800 professionals
Newmark Knight Frank DevencoreCanadian Office Coverage
class asking rates moved down to $21.60, $18.80 and $14.80 respectively during the third quarter.
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