39599608 value investing for mere mortals guy spier
TRANSCRIPT
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Value Investing
for
Mere Mortals
Guy Spier Aquamarine Fund
Value Investing Congress
October 12 &13, 2010
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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 $0.00
$50,000.00
$100,000.00
$150,000.00
$200,000.00
$250,000.00
$300,000.00
$350,000.00
$400,000.00
S&P 500
Aquamarine Fund Inc
Comparison of changes in $100,000 invested in
Aquamarine Fund Inc. vs S&P 500
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• Before Investing, run a checklist
• Take buy and sell decisions when the market is closed
• Buy to hold for at least two years
• Reduce toxic relationships, increase productive ones
• Create a distance from the “madding crowd”
• Sequence information appropriately
• Maximise positive feedback loops
• Invoke useful circuit breakers
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The Obesity “Epidemic”
Your Friends’ Friends Can Make You
Fat
Nicholas Christakis – Harvard
It’s better to hang out with people better
than you, … Pick out associates whose
behavior is better than yours and you’ll
drift in that direction.
- Warren Buffett
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Thoughts on partnerships in investing
• Don’t interfere in each other’s work
• Accepting of failure and error
• Talk about ideas not about buy / sell decisions
• Respect each other’s confidentiality
• Don’t tell each other what to do
• Have found a financial deal that works and don’t need to
revisit / reopen
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Act like a great partner
to find great partners
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Company Name
Market Capitalizati
on (US$mm)
Enterprise Value
Dividend Yield
Net Cash US$ m
LTM Ebit Industry
Shingakukai 60 (22) 4% 82 7.5 Coaching Schools and Sports Clubs
Clip Corporation $38 (4) 4% 42 10.5 Coaching Schools
Nippon Road 186 (32) 4% 218 76 Construction and Engineering
Nihon Dengi 57 (1.5) 5% 58.5 17 Air conditioning systems
Daiichi Kensetsu Corp
125 (28) 3% 153 52 Construction and Real Estate
Hokkaido Bus Company
74 (12) 2% 88 13 Bus Routes
Otaki Gas 73 5 2% 68 23 Gas Distribution
Heian Ceremony Service Co.
67 8 4% 59 15.5 Wedding and Funeral Services
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Q&A
(Merci vielmals
Auf wiederluege
En guete!)