36210 donegal sw by election poll report

8/8/2019 36210 Donegal SW by Election Poll Report

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onegaBy Election Poll

Job No: 36210

November 2010


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RED C interviewed a random sample of 510 adults aged 18+ by telephone betweenthe 12th & 16th Nov 2010.

A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process ofhouseholds to be included this also ensures that ex-directory households are

covered. The margin of error on results is estimated to be + or 4.4% at 95% confidence level.

Interviews were conducted across the constituency in proportion to latest population

data within each electoral district and the results weighted to the profile of all adults

Methodology

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.

A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people

voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to

halfway between the two.

Finally vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a

10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are

included as being those who will actually go and vote.

Data from this report can be published as long as reference is given to both Paddy

Power and RED C.


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Summary of Main Findings

Fianna Fail are the big losers in terms of a potential general election showing, with a1st preference share of just 19%, down 32% since the last general election. Whilepart of this may be due to the fact that Mary Coughlan is not of course involved in theby-election it doesnt bode well for the party should an election be called in the nearfuture.

Fine Gael may be disappointed to only take 25% share, a modest increase of just2% since 2007, and this may persuade them to only run one candidate at the nextelection, as the two candidate approach appears to split the vote somewhat.

This relatively weak showing by Fine Gael, despite the collapse of the Fianna Fail

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vote, like Labour could somewhat be attributed to voters preferred choice ofTaoiseach, where Enda Kenny is preferred by only 1 in 5 (18%) of all voters in theconstituency.


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Share of first preference vote across candidates in by-election

(Base: All Likely to Vote in Constituency)

40

19

Pearse Doherty, SF

Brian ODomhnaill, FF

1st Preference

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15

8

2

arry e ,

Frank McBrearty Junior, Lab

Thomas Pringle, Ind

Ann Sweeney, Ind


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Share of first & second preference vote across candidates in by-election

(Base: All Likely to Vote in Constituency)

40

19

Pearse Doherty, SF

Brian ODomhnaill, FF

1st Preference2ND

Preference

19%

10%

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15

8

2

arry e ,

Frank McBrearty Junior, Lab

Thomas Pringle, Ind

Ann Sweeney, Ind

14%

20%

9%

7%


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31%

51%

Share of first preference vote if there were to be a general election tomorrow by party vs. last General Election 2007 in Donegal South West(Base: All Likely to Vote in Constituency)

OpinionPoll

Nov 10

GeneralElection

2007

N.B. Please note that due tothe fact that this was a ByElection poll this may have

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19%

25%

18%

0%

7%

1%1%3%

21%23%

Fianna Fail Fine Gael Sinn Fein Labour Green Other

made by-election candidates

more top of mind


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Best Taoiseach after Next General Election

46

18

Eamonn Gilmore

Q.1 Irrespective of which party you support, which of the main party leaders do you believewould make the best Taoiseach for Ireland after the next general election?

(Base: All Adults 18+ )

Enda Kenny

%

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13

13

10

(Q.2)

Brian Cowen

Dont know

None of these

36210 donegal sw by election poll report

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