31.08.2012 energy supply development trends, d. purevbayar

ENERGY SUPPLY,

DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

PUREVBAYAR.D,

Deputy Director of Energy Policy

Department, MMRE, Mongolia

1

“Discover Mongolia-2012" International Mining Investors’ Forum

CONTENT

Current State of Power Sector of Mongolia

Development Programs and Policy Documents

of Power Energy Sector

Electricity Demand from Mining Sector

Development

Development Prospect of Power Sector by

Regions

Ministry of Mineral

Resources and Energy

2


Western Power System Central Power System

Western Power System

Ulaanbaatar

MONGOLIAN INTEGRATED POWER SYSTEM

MINISTRY OF MINERAL

RESOURCES AND ENERGY

Altai-Uliastai Power System

3

Combined Heat and

Power (CHP) Plant, 86.53

%

Heat only Plant, 6.88%

Heat only Boilers, 6.60

%

Current State of Power Sector of Mongolia

The overwhelming majority of our heat and electric energy was being generated by coal fired thermo power plants and the remaining small amount by hydro, wind, solar and diesel stations.

4

Power Industries

Installed Capacity for Heat Generation Total-6018MWth

Installed Capacity for Electricity Generation Total- 897MW

Combined Heat and

Power (CHP) Plant, 91.8%

Diesel, 5.1%Hydro, 3.0%Wind and

Solar, 0.1%

MINISTRY OF MINERAL


Energy Balance of Mongolia in 2010 (Unit : 1,000 TOE)

Energy Statistics in Mongolia

================================ ========= ============ ===== ======= ========= ======= ========= =========

------------------------------------------------------- ---------------- --------------------- --------- ----------- ---------------- ----------- ---------------- ---------------

Production 10,963.83 285.53 0.00 4.73 0.00 337.09 11,591.18

Import 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.60 0.00 0.00 908.89

Export -8,737.75 -288.36 0.00 -1.91 0.00 0.00 -9,028.02

Stock Changes (±) 97.86 2.83 0.00 0.00 93.54

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Primary Energy Supply 2,323.94 0.00 0.00 4.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 337.09 3,544.89

Transformation Sector -1,997.73 0.00 0.00 -4.73 0.00 269.58 782.02 0.00 -954.08

Electricity Only Plants 0.00 0.00 -4.73 0.00 4.88 0.15

Heat Only Plants -252.09 0.00 221.87 -30.22

Refinery 0.00 0.00

CHP's -1,653.45 0.00 365.95 614.38 -676.33

Other -25.27 0.00 0.00 -25.27

Own Use & Losses -66.93 0.00 -101.26 -54.23 -222.42

Own Use & Losses 0.00 -57.80 -33.84 -91.64

Losses -66.93 -43.46 -20.39 -130.77

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Final Consumption 326.21 0.00 290.27 782.02 337.09 2,611.50

Industry 55.47 0.00 183.10 228.42 0.00 623.45

Transportation 0.00 0.00 6.86 0.00 0.00 685.69

Residential 162.59 0.00 45.83 320.10 283.79 812.31

Com/Public & Others 108.15 0.00 54.47 233.51 53.30 490.04

================================ ========= ============ ===== ======= ========= ======= ========= =========

TOTALLNG Hydro Nuclear Electricity Heat

Traditional

Fuels &

Others

Energy Resources

Energy FlowsCaol Oil

MINISTRY OF MINERAL


5 “Discover Mongolia-2012" International Mining Investors’ Forum

6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Growth rate per annum, (%)

’90-’95 ’95-’00 ’00-‘05 ’05-’10

Total Primary Energy Supply (1,000 TOE) 3,746 2,317 2,564 2,800 3,545 -9.2% 2.0% 1.8% 4.8%

Energy per capita (TOE) 1.74 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.27 -9.9% 0.6% 0.5% 3.1%

Population (thousand) 2,153 2,243 2,408 2,562 2,781 0.8% 1.4% 1.3% 1.6%

GDP (billion tog, at 2005 constant price) 2,107 1,826 2,100 2,780 4,154 -2.8% 2.8% 5.8% 8.4%

Energy/GDP Intensity (TOE/million Tog) 1.78 1.27 1.22 1.01 0.85 -6.5% -0.8% -3.8% -3.3%

Import Dependency (%) 22.3% 16.2% 19.4% 21.4% 25.6% -6.2% 3.7% 1.9% 3.7%

Total Primary Energy and Economic Indicator in Mongolia

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Growth rate per annum, (%)

’90-’95 ’95-’00 ’00-‘05 ’05-’10

Indigenous Production 2,709 1,980 2,019 3,592 11,591 -6.1% 0.4% 12.2% 26.4%

Import 836.01 375.55 497.13 597.88 908.89

-14.8% 5.8% 3.8% 8.7%

Export 171 1 3 1,405 9,028

-61.8% 18.4% 236% 45.1%

Total Domestic Energy Supply 3,746 2,317 2,564 2,800 3,545 -9.2% 2.0% 1.8% 4.8%

Energy Production and Net Import in Mongolia

(Unit : 1,000 TOE, %)*

(Unit : 1,000 TOE, %)

* 1,000 TOE- 1,000 Tonnes of Oil Equivalent

Energy Statistics in Mongolia MINISTRY OF MINERAL



Final Energy Demand by Source in Mongolia (Unit : 1,000 TOE, %)

2000 2005 2010

Growth rate p.a. (%)

’00-‘05 ’05-’08

Coal 217 148 326 -7.4% 17.2%

12.3% 7.5% 12.5% - -

Oil 443 570 876 5.2% 9.0%

25.0% 28.9% 33.5% - -

Electricity 154 216 290 7.0% 6.1%

8.7% 10.9% 11.1% - -

Heat 663 718 782 1.6% 1.7%

37.4% 36.4% 29.9% - -

Traditional Fuels & Others

293 321 337 1.8% 1.0%

16.5% 16.3% 12.9% - -

Total 1,770 1,973 2,611 2.2% 5.8%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0% - -

Trend in Demand Shares (200020052010, %)

• Coal : 12.3 7.5 12.5 • Oil : 25.0 28.9 33.5

• Electricity : 8.710.9 11.1 • Heat : 37.4 36.4 29.9

• Traditional Fuels & Others : 16.5 16.3 12.9

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Coal Oil Electricity Heat Traditional Fuels & Others

Energy Statistics in Mongolia MINISTRY OF MINERAL



Development Programs and

Policy Documents of Power Energy Sector

No Name of Documents Approved Update

Legal Framework

1 Law on Energy of Mongolia 2001 2011

2 Law on Renewable Energy of Mongolia 2007 -

Development programs

3 “100000 Solar Ger” National Program 1999 Come to the end 2012

4 Program on Integrated Power Energy System 2002 2007 and Update will

be made in 2012

5 National Renewable Energy Program 2005 -

6 Millennium Development Goals Based Comprehensive National Development Strategy of Mongolia

2007 -

7 New Construction and Mid-Term Goal Program 2010 -

Other Policy Documents

8 Government Action Plan 2008-2012 2008 -

9 Sustainable Development Plan of Energy Sector 2002 -

MINISTRY OF MINERAL



Implementation of the Program on Integrated Energy System of Mongolia:

Currently, all 21 aimags and 318 soums are supplied by centralized energy source while 15 soums are supplied from renewable sources and other hybrid systems.

The first phase or short-term (from 2007 to 2012) action plan of “the Program on Integrated Energy System of Mongolia” is currently being implemented successfully.

Implementation of “100,000 solar ger” and “the National Program on Renewable Energy”:

Currently, use of renewable energy sources for power generation has become a reality as a result of which about 100,000 nomadic families and 15 soums have access to electricity using a renewable energy sources.

“100,000 Solar ger” national program will be completed in 2012 with the final distribution of 5,000 solar home system.

MINISTRY OF MINERAL


Development Programs and

Policy Documents of Power Energy Sector


Electricity Demand Projection

According to the recent studies conducted on large industrialized and settlement regions and cities it

can be estimated that between 2015 and 2030 the country’s Electricity consumption rate will reach

1,600 to 3,000MW.

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MINISTRY OF MINERAL



51.7104.2

157.8

211.8267.2

310.2346.2

383.3421.5

462498.7

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Short and mid-term electricity demand of Central region will be supplied from following sources.

Source Commission

year Capacity,

MW Status

Central Power System - 814,3 Existing

CHP-5 2015 820 Ongoing

Tsaidam nuur TPP 2012-2016 600 Planned

Chandgana TPP 2013-2017 600 Planned

Bayanteeg TPP - 40 Potential

Baganuur TPP - 270 Potential

Salhit Wind Farm 2011-2013 50 Ongoing

Shuren HPP - 300 Planned

EG HPP - 220 Potential

Pump storage plant of CPS

- 100 Potential

Electricity Demand Forecast of Ulaanbaatar

MINISTRY OF MINERAL


Development Prospect of Power Sector – Central Region


•Installed capacity of Durgun HydroPP, main

electricity source of the region, is 12 MW and it

supply approximately 30 % of this region electricity

consumption.

• it is necessary to have additional 50-60 MW

electricity source to solve import dependency and

supply growing demand.

•The growing demand will be supplied from

Khushuut 12-36 MW TPP or Nuurst Khotgor 40 MW

TPP.

MINISTRY OF MINERAL


Development Prospect of Power Sector – Western Region

Short and mid-term electricity demand of Western 3 provinces will be supplied from following sources.

Source Commission

year Capacity, MW Status

Durgun HPP - 12 Existing

Khushuut TPP 2012-2014 12-36 Planned

Nuurst Khotgor or Khar Tarvagtai TPP

2013-2016 40 Potential

Maikhan Tolgoi HPP - 12 Potential


• Install capacity of Taishir hydro PP, main electricity

source of this region, is 11 MW and there are small

sized wind, solar and diesel power station.

•It is necessary to build 50-60 MW new elecricity

source to supply growing demand of the region.

• The demand will be supplied from Telmen 60 MW

TPP, based from Mogoin gol coal deposite.

MINISTRY OF MINERAL


Development Prospect of Power Sector – Western Region

Short and mid-term electricity demand of Altai-Uliastai Power System will be supplied from following sources.

Source Commission

year Capacity, MW Status

Taishir HPP - 11 Existing

Diesel power stations of AUPS

- 9 Existing

Telmen TPP based Mogoin gol coal mine

2012-2014 60 Ongoing

Taishir Wind Farm - 20 Potential


MINISTRY OF MINERAL


Development Prospect of Power Sector – Eastern Region

Short and mid-term electricity demand of Eastern Power System will be supplied from following sources.

Source Commission

year Capacity,

MW Status

Choibalsan TPP - 36 Existing

Extension of Choibalsan TPP

- 100 Planned

Aduunchuluun TPP - 450 Potential

Baganuur-Undurkhaan-Choibalsan 220 kV OHTL

- - Planned

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Electricity Demand Forecast of Eastern Region

4.7 5.3 6 7.5 9 11 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 2115.526.9

39.4

59.170.6

77.7 79.3 79.6 81 82.4 83.9 85.4 87 88.7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Consumption of Dornod and Sukhbaatar Requested Demand from Mining Projects


MINISTRY OF MINERAL


Development Prospect of Power Sector – Gobi Region

Short and mid-term electricity demand of Gobi Region will be supplied from following sources.

Source Commission

year Capacity,

MW Status

Dalanzadgad TPP - 9 Existing

Ukhaa Khudag TPP

- 18-68 First blocks are

commisioned

Тавантолгой ДЦС 2012-2016 600 Planned

УБ-Мандалговь-ТТ-ОТ 220 кВ-ын ЦДАШ

2011-2013 - Under

construction

Electricity Demand of Oyu Tolgoi is around 280 MW

Its short-term demand will be supplied from UB-Mandalgobi-

TT-OT 220 kV OHTL and 220 kV OHTL from China.

Its mid and long-term demand will be supplied from Tavan

tolgoi 600 MW TPP.

Electricity Demand Forecast of Gobi Region, 2011-2025

Years 2011 2012 2015 2020 2025

Demand, MW 21 48.5 260 498 607


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Location of Ongoing and Planned Projects which

will implemented in the near future

Telmen TPP 60 MW Ulaanbaatar CHP#5 830 MW

Tavan tolgoi TPP 600 MW Ukhaa khudag TPP 18 MW

Shuren HPP 300 MW

Baganuur to

Tsagaansuvarga 220 kV

OHTL

Baganuur to

Choibalsan 220 kV

OHTL

Ulaanbaatar to

Tavantolgoi-220 kV

OHTL

Chandgana TPP

600 MW

MINISTRY OF MINERAL



Short term strategy and goals

In the near future, Mongolia’s Ministry will implement the following principles and strategies towards the development of the power energy sector, including:

Providing financial and economic opportunities to build new sources of energy supply networks and developing energy sector;

Supporting the construction of new energy supply networks by the private sector, developing the legal environment of energy prices and tariffs, and developing a public-private sector partnership;

Developing and expanding power line networks under the review of the Government in accordance with the consumption and energy supply sources projections;

Increasing the efficiency of the energy sector, providing its financial sustainability, implementing economically feasible regulations, and fully transferring the energy sector and prices to market regulations.

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MINISTRY OF MINERAL



Thank you for the attention!

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31.08.2012 energy supply development trends, d. purevbayar

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