3.0 consumer panel

8/13/2019 3.0 Consumer Panel

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Copyright 2003 ACNielsen

a VNU business

Consumer Panel

Session 3


2/22

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a VNU business

IMRB Consumer Panel

Definitions ..

Universe Homes- Total No. of estimated households\Population in a particular zone\state\centre

Penetration

- Number of households which have purchased the respective segment\brand

at least once in the give time period

Average Consumption

- Gives the per HH purchase in that period (i.e. ltrs purchased per Household)

- Avg Cons(of category \segment\brand)= Total Volumes / Total Buying HHs

Frequency of purchase

- The average no of months in which the respective brand/segment has been

purchased

Source : IMRB


3/22

3


a VNU business

List of Analysis Penetration & Volume Trends

- Monthly, Quarterly, Yearly

Brand Health Report (BHP)

- Holistic brand health report over any 2 time periods across Zones\ TCLs\SECs by:

Penetration, Volumes/ Volume Share, Av. Consumption, Frequency of Purchase (FOP)

Gain & Loss Analysis

- Explains brands gains & losses by 4 parameters

Entry Erosion

- Gives an understanding of the consumer traffic by category\segment\ brands

- Have retainers increased\decreased their consumption? What is the retention index?

- Are new triers more than the lapsers?

Whether new triers have more consumption level than the lapsers or vice versa

Source : IMRB


4/22

4


a VNU business

List of Analysis Purchase Basket

- Of Buyers, Retainers, New Triers, Lapsers of a Segment\Brand

- Helps in understanding:

Which other brands do they buy??

How has the purchase basket of the buyer changed over two different time periods??

Where have they come from??

Which brands have they lapsed out to??

Multiusership Analysis

- Gives holistic picture of Solus / Dual / Multi usage between various Segments / Brands

Profiling

- Helps in knowing the demographic differences between various segments\brands\packs

Cross Category Analysis

- Various kinds of analyses possible across various FMCG categories

Source : IMRB


5/22

5


a VNU business

List of Analysis

Solus/Core/Non-core

Measure of customer loyalty by the shares of their purchase baskets

- Solus Users (Key Brand Buyers): Those HHs where 100% of the category requirement is met by

that specific brand itself

- Core Users (Main Brand Buyers):Those HHs where majority (more than 50% & less than 99%) of

the category requirement is met by that particular brand

- Non Core Users (Fringe Buyers):Those HHs where less than 50% of the category requirement is

met by that particular brand

Light Medium and Heavy

It classifies the buyers based on the level of their contribution to the Category Volumes.

- Heavy Buyers:Those 20% of HHs which contribute more than 50% of the total category volumes

- Medium Buyers:Those 30% of HHs which contribute more than 30% of the total category volumes

- Light Buyers:Those 50% of HHs which contribute more than 20% of the total category volumes

Tag-Ons

Source : IMRB


6/22

6


a VNU business

Brand Health Parameter- For a Segment\Brand (AcrossSECs, TCLs, Zones)

P1 P2 Index P1 P2 Index P1 P2 P1 P2

TCl All 53 52 99 3091617 3017248 98 98 97 4.2 4.3

% %

40 lakhs + 79 80 101 60 61 98 139 136 5.1 5.1

10 to 40 lakhs 54 53 97 15 15 96 94 93 4.2 4.35 to 10 lakhs 59 57 97 7 7 95 80 79 3.8 3.9

1 to 5 lakhs 46 45 98 10 10 97 63 62 3.8 4.0

Upto 1 lakh 31 29 96 7 7 97 41 42 2.6 2.9


SEC All 53 52 99 3091617 3017248 98 98 97 4.2 4.3

% %

SEC A 56 55 98 18 18 97 152 152 4.4 4.5

SEC B 52 50 96 21 21 97 116 117 4.3 4.4

SEC C 56 55 98 24 25 98 99 100 4.3 4.4

SEC D/E 51 52 100 36 36 98 77 75 4.1 4.2


All India 53 52 99 3091617 3017248 98 98 97 4.2 4.3

% %

North 32 28 86 19 18 91 130 138 3.5 3.7

East 51 53 103 9 9 98 59 56 3.8 3.8West 57 56 99 33 34 99 97 97 4.2 4.4

South 67 68 101 39 39 99 101 100 4.6 4.7

Penetration Volumes Avg Purchase FOP

Avg Purchase FOPPenetration Volumes

Avg Purchase FOPPenetration Volumes

Branded Milk

Brand performanceacross variousTown Classes

Brand performanceacross various SECs

Brand performanceacross various

Markets

Helps in determining the BrandPerformance on the basis of its

Penetration, Volume share, consumption

level & frequency of purchase

P1: Apr 04-Sep 04P2: Oct 04-Mar 05

Source : IMRB


7/22

7


a VNU business

Penetration By FOP Matrix

(Penetration, Volume Share, Avg Cons, FOP)

(84, 31, 21, 4.8)

(63, 16, 8, 3.9)

(68, 14, 16, 3.3)

(49, 11, 8, 2.3)

(38, , 9, 3.1)(38, 5, 4, 2.8)

Weak Markets for

XXX brand vis--vis

Competition

Penetration

FOP

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

4.8

AI Urban

North Zone

East Zone

West Zone

South Zone

Delhi

Pun/Har/Chn

Rajasthan

Uttar Pradesh

West Bengal

Bihar GuwahatiOrissa

Maharashtra

Gujarat

Madhya Pradesh

Tamil Nadu

Karnataka

Kerala

Andhra Pradesh

Source : IMRB


8/22

8


a VNU business

Extent of Dual Usage

Solus Branded

20.5%

(20.7)

Solus Unbded

22%

(22)

P 1 HHs: 57107.3 (000); Volumes: 2682801 Tonnes

HHs: 57047 (000) Volumes: 2706667 TonnesP 2

22.9%

(22.6)

Solus Branded

21.4%

21.3

Solus Unbded

Dual Buyers

57.6 %

57.3 (26.8+30.5)

55.7%

56.2 25.7+30.5

Dual Buyers

Solus Branded:12% & 10% growth

in terms of penetration & volumes

respectively

Solus Unbranded:3% drop in

terms of both penetration as well as

volumesDual Homes:Declining but

Unbranded oil gaining volumes in

these homes

Source : IMRB


9/22

9


a VNU business

Gain & Loss- Four ways of Gaining/LosingBrand +\- Category +\-

Consumption +\-Repertoire +\-

A=10

B=20

Total=30

A=15

B=15

Total=30

A=

Total=

A=10

Total=10

A=10

B=20

Total=30

A=15

B=30Total=45

A=10

B=20

Total=30

A=10

B=20

C=10

Total=40

A gains 5 Tons from B

C added to the basket

without changing the

consumption of other brands

10 tons increase in

consumption of brand B

Buyers entering thecategory by brand A

P1

P2

P1

P2

P1

P2

P1

P2

Source : IMRB


10/22

10


a VNU business

New Triers

1981Avg Cons.

0.045

58%

Retained

Buyers

Buyers in P1 2578 Buyers in P2

4463 Avg Cons. 4558

Avg Cons. P1 : 0.132 Avg Cons.

0.111 P2 : 0.118 0.087

42%

Lapsed Buyers

1885

Avg Cons.

0.083

Entry Erosion- A look at the New Triers, Retainers &Lapsers

Non Buyers of the brand inPeriod One & Buyers of the

brandin Period Two

Buyers of the brandinPeriod One & Non Buyersof the brandin Period Two

Buyers of the brandinPeriod One as well as

Period Two

Percentage ofP1 buyersretained

Percentage ofP1 buyerslapsed out

Source : IMRB


11/22

11


a VNU business

LMH Usership

57.2 56.4 58.3 65.4 62.6 58.1

67.8 63.9

27.5 27.2 25.322.8

25.3

2323

15.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 9.2 13.1

24.9

12.511.8

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

LEMON MANGO ORANGE COLA

Light Medium Heavy

22.4 18.731.2 30.2 32.9 25.4 24.1

18.6

30.428.6

29.424.9 29.4 34.5

26.2

47.152.7

39.445.2 41.4

55.2

32.5

34.544.9

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%


HHs

Vols (in Tons)

9286 2597 4050 7173

31040 3816 190337040

8485

42784

6963

24507 119840 115008

19656 16384

Helps in classifying the buyersin terms of LMH buyers

Can profile these buyers, seewhich markets they come from,how does their purchase basket

lookand many more!!

Source : IMRB


12/22

12


a VNU business

Solus Usership

65.458.9

78.971

61.2 62.7

19.5 26.5

17.619.4

7.1

9.115.9

25.6

27

17 21.7 14

21.5

54.946.4

16.2

22.619.9

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%


Fringe Core Solus

5140.8

81.1

64.9

49.5 53.8

9.2 14.3

35.7

39.3

12.2

17.429

37.1

40.7

13.319.9

6.717.2

53.745

31.2

19.317.7

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%


HHs

Vols (in Tons)

9286 2597 4050 7173

31040 3816 190337040

8485

42784

6963

24507 119840 115008

19656 16384

Helps in classifying the buyersin terms of Solus\Core\Non

Core buyers

Can profile these buyers, seewhich markets they come

from, how does their purchasebasket lookand many more!!

Source : IMRB


13/22

13


a VNU business

Tracking New Brand Launch

0

90

180

270

360

450

Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05

Cum New Trials Cum Repeats

New Trial rate at 0.6% whereas the repeat rate for XXX brand at 13%

Cum NT rate: 0.6%

Cum RPT rate: 13%

HHs(

in

000s)

Source : IMRB


14/22

14


a VNU business

Profile- Who are my XXX Brand Buyers???Universe Noodles Mother Brand New Variant

TG Base (000s) 60,326 18,526 15,365 385

% % % %

SEC

A 11 19 20 44

B 19 25 26 23C 23 24 24 21

D\E 48 33 32 12

Town Class Level

Metros 29 42 44 83

10-40 L 16 17 16 8

5-10 L 8 10 10 3

1-5 L 19 15 15 6

Upto 1 L 30 16 16 0

Age of Housewife

Upto 34 yrs 32 32 32 32

35-44 yrs 30 31 31 30More than 45 37 37 37 39

Household Size

Upto 2 5 4 4 6

3 to 4 39 43 43 54

5 to 8 50 47 47 38

More than 8 6 6 6 3

Food Eating Habits

Pure vegetarian 31 28 31 40

Vegetarian but serve egg 5 5 5 7

Non-vegeterian 64 67 64 53

cabke & Satellite

Non C&S 28 24 22 13

C&S 59 70 73 87

Presence of Children b\w

Chl.01-02 yrs 11 11 11 7

Chl.03-06 yrs 24 23 24 21

Chl.07-14 yrs 48 48 48 49

Chl.01-14 yrs 62 63 64 63

HHs with Infants 3 2 2 2

Source : IMRB


15/22

15


a VNU business

Subscription and repertoire markets

Sharp and Wright (2000)

Repertoire Marketsbuyers are not 100% loyal to the brand

they hold personal repertoires of favourite

brands

A brands average buyer buys it less than 50% ofthe time

Subscription Marketshigh levels of brand loyalty

specific brand forms high share of categorypurchases

buyers hold very small repertoires


16/22

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a VNU business

Market share decomposition of a

newly launched brand

Reasons for poor market sharehigh trial but poor repeat purchase rate

a low trial rate and a low repeat purchase ratea low trial rate but reasonably high repeat

purchase rate

The decomposition of market share intotrial and repeat purchases is crucial to

answer success and failure questions


17/22

17


a VNU business

Clarke (1984), Rangan and Bell (1994)

St=Tt+ FRt+ Art

St = Cumulative Sales at time t

Tt= Cumulative Triers at time t

At = Cumulative number who have made at

least one repeat at time t


18/22

18


a VNU business

Parfitt and Collins Model

ms = t * r * bms = ultimate brand share

t = ultimate trial rate of brand

r = ultimate repeat purchase rate of brandb = buying rate index of repeat purchase of

brand (where category buying rate = 1.0)


19/22

19


a VNU business

Brand Loyalty

rL 1

LIndex of brand loyalty

rthe size of the evoked

brand set

A A T A R M d l f I ti


20/22

20


a VNU business

An A-T-A-R Model of Innovation

Diffusion

Profits = Units Sold x Profit Per Unit

Units Sold = Number of buying units

x % aware of productx % who would try product if they can get it

x % to whom product is available

x % of triers who become repeat purchasers

x Number of units repeaters buy in a year

Profit Per Unit = Revenue per unit - cost per unit


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a VNU business

The A-T-A-R Model: Definitions

Buying Unit: Purchase point (person or department/buyingcenter).

Aware: Has heard about the new product with somecharacteristic that differentiates it.

Available: If the buyer wants to try the product, the effort to find it

will be successful (expressed as a percentage). Trial: Usually means a purchase or consumption of the product.

Repeat: The product is bought at least once more, or (fordurables) recommended to others.


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VNU b i

A-T-A-R Model Application

10 million Number of owners of video cellphones

x 40% Percent awareness after one year

x 20% Percent of aware owners who will try product

x 70% Percent availability at electronics retailers

x 20% Percent of triers who will buy a second unit

x Rs 500 Price per unit minus trade margins and

discounts (Rs 5000) minus unit cost at the

intended volume (Rs 4500)

= Rs 56,000,000 Profits

3.0 consumer panel

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