3. post-9/11 us strategy how much has changed? how much has stayed the same?
TRANSCRIPT
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3. Post-9/11 US Strategy3. Post-9/11 US Strategy
• How much has changed?
• How much has stayed the same?
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Then Everything ChangedOr Did It?
Then Everything ChangedOr Did It?
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PentagonPentagon
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Traditional ThreatsTraditional Threats
• Nation-state rivalries
• Hegemon vs. Rising Challenger
VS.
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New Threats EmergeNew Threats Emerge
1. Non-state Actors
2. Ideology
3. Disruption Global Insurgency Loosely connected networks From AQAM to transnational organized
crime
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AQAM Power Projection2003-2011
AQAM Power Projection2003-2011
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Why Non-State Actors have PowerWhy Non-State Actors have PowerGlobalization• Ease of travel• Ease of global finance• Communications revolution States
– Ability to communicate lose their
globally monopoly• Information revolution on
– Ability to share large influence
amounts of information with and
anyone, anywhere, anytime violence– Global spread of technology
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GW Bush National Security StrategyGW Bush National Security Strategy
Maintain Core Strategy
1.Nuclear Deterrence and missile defense
2.Forward Presence
3.Peacetime Military Strength
4.Own the sea
5.NATO and other alliances
6.Free Trade and Commerce
7.Spread Democracy**
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Innovations?Innovations?
1. Deter peer competitors
2. Deal with regional powers seeking WMD
3. Fight Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) or “The Long War”
4. Spread Democracy
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1. Deter Peer Competitors1. Deter Peer Competitors
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• Seapower• Forward Presence• Power Projection• “1-4-2-1” Capability
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2. Deal with regional powers seeking WMD
2. Deal with regional powers seeking WMD
“Axis of Evil”
•Isolation
•sanctions
•Preemption
•Regime change
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3. Fight Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) or “The Long War”
3. Fight Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) or “The Long War”
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4. Spread Democracy4. Spread Democracy
• Neoconservatism
• Stability Operations
• COIN• US Army FM 3-24 Counterinsurgency, 2006• US State Department Counterinsurgency
Manual
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US Domiance:Global Military Spending
US Domiance:Global Military Spending
SIPRI data http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/factsheet2010
•
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Building World OrderBuilding World Order
• On global scale• Regionally: Regime Change and
Democracy Building • Afghanistan• Iraq
• Street by street
Limits to this strategy?
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Clear LimitsClear Limits
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Obama StrategyObama Strategy
Maintain Core Strategy
1.Nuclear Deterrence and missile defense
2.Forward Presence
3.Peacetime Military Strength
4.Own the sea
5.NATO and other alliances
6.Free Trade and Commerce
7.Spread Democracy**
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Innovations?Innovations?
1. Recognition of new international order– Interdependence– Globalization– Rise of new powers
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2. US still wants to shape international order2. US still wants to shape international order
Power projection (US and UK Carriers)
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Preparing for A2AD StrategiesPreparing for A2AD Strategies
• Anti-Access/Area-Denial strategies
• China’s DF-21D
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3. Focus on Non-state Actors3. Focus on Non-state Actors
AQAM
Osama bin-Laden May 2011
AQAP
Anwar al-Awlaki September 2011
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OUT
• Iraq
• Afghanistan
IN (for training, joint exercises, or longer term deployments)
– Uganda– Australia– Djibouti– Niger– Indonesia…
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Drone Strikes (Yemen 2002-2012)
Drone Strikes (Yemen 2002-2012)
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4. Defend Global Commons4. Defend Global Commons
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5. Pivot to Asia5. Pivot to Asia
Defense Guidance 2012: – Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership
Priorities for 21st Century Defense
Clinton at East-West Center– “America's Engagement in the
Asia-Pacific” text