3 challenges & perspectives 4 demographics...middle east & north africa pakistan 3...

1

BM.I REPUBLIC OF AUSTRIAFEDERAL MINISTRY OF THE INTERIOR .BFA REPUBLIC OF AUSTRIA

FEDERAL OFFICE FOR IMMIGRATION AND ASYLUMREPUBLIC OF AUSTRIAFEDERAL OFFICE FOR IMMIGRATION AND ASYLUM

2

DEM

OG

RAP

HIC

S

SOMALIASecurity, Minorities & Migration

Wolfgang Taucher - Mathias Vogl - Peter Webinger

AFGHANISTAN2014 and beyond

regiones et res publicae - Country Analysis Reports

www.bmi.gv.atwww.staatendokumentation.at

ISBN 978-3-903109-09-4

Mid

dle

East

& N

orth

Afr

ica

PAKISTANChallenges & Perspectives3

THE KURDSHistory - Religion - Language - Politics4

6

5

DEMOGRAPHICSMiddle East & North Africa

SYRIA, IRAQ & AFGHANISTANMapping migration, social media and topography

6DEMOGRAPHICSMiddle East & North Africa

6

1



2

DEM

OG

RAP

HIC

S






ISBN 978-3-903109-09-4

Mid

dle

East

& N

orth

Afr

ica



6

5




6

Preface | Wolfgang Taucher, Mathias Vogl, Peter Webinger .....................5

North Africa ...................................................................................................6

Morocco ...........................................................................................................8

Algeria ..............................................................................................................10

Tunisia ..............................................................................................................12

Libya .................................................................................................................14

Egypt ................................................................................................................16

Middle East ...................................................................................................18

Turkey ...............................................................................................................20

Syria .................................................................................................................22

Jordan ..............................................................................................................24

Iraq ...................................................................................................................26

Iran (Islamic Republic of)................................................................................28

Afghanistan .....................................................................................................30

Pakistan ...........................................................................................................32

Sources ..........................................................................................................35

Imprint ............................................................................................................37

Contents

5

Wolfgang Taucher Mathias Vogl Peter WebingerDirector of the Federal Office Director-General for Deputy Director-Generalfor Immigration and Asylum Legal Affairs for Legal Affairs

Austrian Federal Ministry Austrian Federal Ministry Austrian Federal Ministryof the Interior of the interior of the interior

The latest edition of our regiones et res publicae series takes a look at the demographic trends in the Middle East and North Africa. As this region is home to some of the main source countries of migrants, monitoring population trends – as one of the key determinants of future migration flows – is essential.

Demography is, of course, just one indicator of potential migration flows. Rapidly growing, young populations do require significant economic growth to allow the successive cohorts of young adults to enter the labor markets and become economically self-sustaining. Such a concurrence would allow reaping a demographic dividend, while the absence of economic growth would in turn leave large segments of the population without any perspectives.

North Africa and the Middle East are essentially intertwined with the European Union when it comes to migration – as transit countries as well as countries of origin. The understanding of the population dynamics of this region – of course in synopsis with economic and labor market trends – will help comprehend current dynamics and potential future developments.

This edition was published in collaboration with the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD).

Preface

6

NORTH AFRICA

7

Total population

Age distribution

185 962 000 201 911 000 216 343 000 229 625 000

0–19 years 20–64 years

49,7

3%

50,2

7%

65+ years

Gender ratio

49,7

1%

50,2

9%

49,7

1%

50,2

9%

49,7

4%

50,2

6%

female male

5,39%

2020

2015

2030

2025

53,36%

41,26%

6,26%

55,26%

38,48%

7,19%

55,05%

37,76%

8,29%

55,50%

36,21%

8

MOROCCO

9

Total population

Age distribution

34 803 000 37 071 000 39 101 000 40 874 000

0–19 years 20–64 years

50,5

2%

49,4

8%

65+ years

Gender ratio

50,4

3%

49,5

7%

50,3

8%

49,6

2%

50,3

6%

49,6

4%

female male

6,40%

2020

2015

2030

2025

57,44%

36,16%

7,62%

57,61%

34,77%

9,38%

57,31%

33,32%

11,23%

57,17%

31,60%

10

ALGERIA

11

Total population

Age distribution

39 872 000 43 333 000 46 308 000 48 822 000

0–19 years 20–64 years 65+ years

Gender ratio

2020

2015

2030

2025

4,89%

48,28%

46,82%

6,86%

56,75%

36,40%

7,92%

55,72%

36,36%

9,26%

56,59%

34,15%

49,5

0%

50,5

0%

49,5

0%

50,5

0%

49,5

0%

50,5

0%

49,5

2%

50,4

8%

female male

12

TUNISIA

13

Total population

Age distribution

11 274 000 11 903 000 12 432 000 12 842 000

Gender ratio

2020

2015

2030

2025


7,61%

61,36%

31,03%

8,83%

60,42%

30,75%

10,46%

59,06%

30,48%

12,42%

58,22%

29,35%

50,5

9%

49,4

1%

50,5

7%

49,4

3%

50,5

7%

49,4

3%

50,5

7%

49,4

3%

female male

14

LIBYA

15

Total population

Age distribution

6 235 000 6 662 000 7 032 000 7 342 000

Gender ratio

2020

2015

2030

2025


4,32%

58,47%

37,21%

4,64%

59,81%

35,55%

5,24%

61,22%

33,54%

6,49%

62,53%

30,99%

49,5

1%

50,4

9%

49,6

2%

50,3

8%

49,7

5%

50,2

5%

49,8

9%

50,1

1%

female male

16

EGYPT

17

Total population

Age distribution

93 778 000 102 941 000

Gender ratio

2020

2015

2030

2025

111 471 000 119 746 000


5,06%

53,12%

41,81%

5,33%

52,90%

41,77%

5,89%

53,14%

40,97%

6,57%

53,76%

39,67%

49,4

5%

50,5

5%

49,4

4%

50,5

6%

49,4

7%

50,5

3%

49,5

1%

50,4

9%

female male

18

MIDDLE EAST

19

Total population

Age distribution

444 759 000 484 476 000

Gender ratio

2020

2015

2030

2025

523 232 000 559 256 000


4,87%

52,95%

42,18%

5,34%

54,01%

40,65%

6,03%

54,87%

39,10%

6,91%

56,01%

37,08%

49,3

0%

50,7

0%

49,2

9%

50,7

1%

49,3

2%

50,6

8%

49,3

4%

50,6

6%

female male

20

TURKEY

21

Total population

Age distribution

78 271 000 83 836 000 86 125 000 88 417 000

Gender ratio

2020

2015

2030

2025


7,80%

58,09%

34,11%

8,82%

59,24%

31,94%

10,36%

59,86%

29,78%

12,08%

59,91%

28,00%

50,8

1%

49,1

9%

50,6

8%

49,3

2%

50,7

7%

49,2

3%

50,8

1%

49,1

9%

female male

22

SYRIA

23

Total population

Age distribution

18 735 000

Gender ratio

2020

2015

2030

2025

18 924 00023 411 000 26 608 000


4,04%

46,34%

49,62%

4,90%

48,57%

46,53%

5,40%

53,58%

41,02%

6,31%

55,92%

37,76%

49,4

2%

50,5

8%

49,6

6%

50,3

4%

49,8

6%

50,1

4%

49,8

7%

50,1

3%

female male

24

JORDAN

25

Total population

Age distribution

9 159 000 10 209 000 10 610 000 11 122 000

Gender ratio

2020

2015

2030

2025


3,76%

50,14%

46,09%

3,94%

51,89%

44,17%

4,42%

53,61%

41,97%

5,40%

55,06%

39,53%

49,3

3%

50,6

7%

49,3

4%

50,6

6%

49,2

1%

50,7

9%

49,0

5%

50,9

5%

female male

26

IRAQ

27

Total population

Age distribution

36 116 000 41 503 000 47 200 000 53 298 000

Gender ratio

2020

2015

2030

2025


3,07%

45,73%

51,19%

3,36%

46,62%

50,02%

3,37%

47,73%

48,91%

3,58%

48,90%

47,53%

49,4

0%

50,6

0%

49,3

5%

50,6

5%

49,3

3%

50,6

7%

49,3

1%

50,6

9%

female male

28

IRAN

29

Total population

Age distribution

79 360 000 83 587 000 86 730 000 88 863 000

Gender ratio

2020

2015

2030

2025


5,03%

64,41%

30,55%

6,26%

63,91%

29,83%

7,89%

63,62%

28,50%

9,88%

64,49%

25,63%

49,6

7%

50,3

3%

49,7

4%

50,2

6%

49,8

1%

50,1

9%

49,8

7%

50,1

3%

female male

30

AFGHANISTAN

31

Total population

Age distribution

33 736 000 38 055 000 42 388 000 46 700 000

Gender ratio

2020

2015

2030

2025


2,49%

41,28%

56,23%

2,69%

44,04%

53,28%

2,91%

47,37%

49,72%

3,18%

50,78%

46,04%

48,4

5%

51,5

5%

48,5

4%

51,4

6%

48,6

2%

51,3

8%

48,7

1%

51,2

9%

female male

32

PAKISTAN

33

Total population

Age distribution

189 381 000

Gender ratio

2020

2015

2030

2025

208 362 000 226 768 000 244 248 000


4,48%

50,28%

45,24%

4,55%

51,83%

43,63%

4,95%

52,71%

42,35%

5,53%

54,12%

40,35%

48,6

3%

51,3

7%

48,6

4%

51,3

6%

48,6

6%

51,3

4%

48,7

0%

51,3

0%

female male

35

Sources

DataUnited Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, DVD Edition.

MapsGraphi-Ogre, www.geoatlas.com

37

Imprint

Published byWolfgang Taucher Mathias Vogl Peter Webinger

Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior Herrengasse 7 I 1010 Vienna I [email protected]

Editors Alexander Schahbasi, Thomas Schrott I Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior

ResearchMartin Hofmann I International Centre for Migration Policy Development

Editorial TeamSarah Kratschmayr, Marina Prohaska I Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior

Layout Natalie Raskovic, Martin Angel I Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior

PrintAustrian Federal Ministry of the Interior

DisclaimerThe content of this publication was researched and edited with utmost care. Liability for the correctness, completeness and up-to-dateness of contents cannot be incurred. The Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior, the publishers, editors and individuals involved in the publication do not assume any liability for possible damages or consequences arising from the usage, application or dissemination of the contents offered. The responsibility for the correctness of information provided by third parties lies with respective publishers and thus excludes liability by the publishers and editors of this volume. The contents of this publication do not represent positions of the Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior or the editors. Theborders and boundaries on the maps used in this publication do not imply official endorsement of acceptance and may contain contested territory. The publication does not claim completeness and is based on the quoted sources.

CopyrightThis publication and all the data therein are protected by copyright. All rights of utilization are reserved to the Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior. Reproduction and distribution in any possible way – for com-mercial and non-commercial usage – are prohibited without prior written permission by the editors.

ISBN 978-3-903109-09-4

© 2018 Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior

1



2

DEM

OG

RAP

HIC

S






ISBN 978-3-903109-09-4

Mid

dle

East

& N

orth

Afr

ica



6

5




6

1



2

DEM

OG

RAP

HIC

S






ISBN 978-3-903109-09-4

Mid

dle

East

& N

orth

Afr

ica



6

5




6

3 challenges & perspectives 4 demographics...middle east & north africa pakistan 3...

Documents