2nd asian emme/2 users conference hong kong november 2000

2nd ASIAN EMME/2 2nd ASIAN EMME/2 USERS CONFERENCEUSERS CONFERENCE

HONG KONGHONG KONG

NOVEMBER 2000NOVEMBER 2000

Authors:

Dave McFarlane VKE Engineers

Logan Moodley City of Durban

Using Emme/2 to assess the Using Emme/2 to assess the Impact of and influence the Impact of and influence the

restructuring of the apartheid restructuring of the apartheid citycityCity of DurbanCity of Durban

ContentsContents1.1. IntroductionIntroduction

2.2. BackgroundBackground

3.3. Profile of the CityProfile of the City

4.4. Existing Transport SystemExisting Transport System

5.5. Public Transport RestructuringPublic Transport Restructuring

6.6. Emme/2 Model StructureEmme/2 Model Structure

7.7. ResultsResults

8.8. Using Emme/2 Model in a Predictive ModeUsing Emme/2 Model in a Predictive Mode

9.9. Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

In 1994 first democratic government In 1994 first democratic government elected in South Africaelected in South Africa• Dramatic impact on planning Dramatic impact on planning • New legislationNew legislation

Purpose of paperPurpose of paper To describe the methodology employed in the latest To describe the methodology employed in the latest

update of the Emme/2 Modelupdate of the Emme/2 Model• The update and methodology has been influenced by The update and methodology has been influenced by

political changes political changes

To demonstrate how the model will be used in To demonstrate how the model will be used in influencing major decisions regarding restructuring influencing major decisions regarding restructuring and integrating the urban form of the cityand integrating the urban form of the city

1. Introduction1. Introduction

LocalityLocality

LocalityLocality

AfricaAfrica

LocalityLocality

Locality - City of DurbanLocality - City of Durban

Locality - City of DurbanLocality - City of Durban

DURBAN BAYDURBAN BAY

CBDCBD

Prior to 1994Prior to 1994• Six decades of separate development based on Six decades of separate development based on

race apartheidrace apartheid

• Different race groups lived in separately Different race groups lived in separately demarcated areademarcated area

• Distorted spatial structureDistorted spatial structure

• Poorest away from CBDPoorest away from CBD

2. Background2. Background

Prior to 1994Prior to 1994• Duplication of services, public transport, schools, social Duplication of services, public transport, schools, social

facilitiesfacilities

• Emphasis on private transport Emphasis on private transport road building road building

• Poorest furthest away from the CBD .. But totally reliant on Poorest furthest away from the CBD .. But totally reliant on public transport public transport high PT subsidy costshigh PT subsidy costs


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INEQUITIESINEQUITIES

Durban CBD

40 min40 min

25 min25 min

10 min10 min

Effects of Effects of Apartheid PlanningApartheid Planning


Post 1994 New Government

New transport legislationNew transport legislation

• regulateregulate• improveimprove• promotepromote

Steps to restructure citiesSteps to restructure cities• densify corridors and nodes - achieve economies of densify corridors and nodes - achieve economies of

scalescale• infrastructure investment to support corridorsinfrastructure investment to support corridors• improve operational performance - tenderingimprove operational performance - tendering

Better integrationBetter integration

Re-calibration of Emme/2 modelRe-calibration of Emme/2 model

Area = 1366 KmArea = 1366 Km22

Population = 2,5 millionPopulation = 2,5 million No. of households= 609 000No. of households= 609 000 60% of employment close to 60% of employment close to

CBD CBD

3. Profile of the City3. Profile of the City

But 30% of employees living But 30% of employees living close to CBD close to CBD long travel long travel distancesdistances

Modal split = 57% by PT - Modal split = 57% by PT - varies from 100% to 0%varies from 100% to 0%

Contributes to 9% of GDPContributes to 9% of GDP Port City - one million containers/annumPort City - one million containers/annum Other activities Other activities • tourism tourism • commercecommerce• subtropical fruitsubtropical fruit• sugar canesugar cane• motor manufacturingmotor manufacturing• agricultureagriculture• constructionconstruction

3. Profile of the City3. Profile of the City

4. Existing Transport System4. Existing Transport System

1 500 buses, 6000 mini-bus taxis, 450 000 cars1 500 buses, 6000 mini-bus taxis, 450 000 cars Over the last twenty years there has been a Over the last twenty years there has been a

significant shift to mini-bus taxissignificant shift to mini-bus taxis

Excellent road system - 3 700 km of freeway, arterial Excellent road system - 3 700 km of freeway, arterial and main routesand main routes

Modes of transportModes of transport

4. Existing Transport System4. Existing Transport System Rail uses old heavy rolling stockRail uses old heavy rolling stock Generally PT system in a poor stateGenerally PT system in a poor state Huge inefficiencies in system mainly due to the Huge inefficiencies in system mainly due to the

distorted spatial structuredistorted spatial structure Currently PT subsidies - US $58 million/annum Currently PT subsidies - US $58 million/annum New legislation has been enacted to restructure New legislation has been enacted to restructure

the PT industrythe PT industry

Modes of TransportModes of Transport

Congestion - Congestion - am peakam peak

Rail InfrastructureRail Infrastructure

Typical BusTypical Bus

Mini-bus TaxiMini-bus Taxi

5. Public Transport 5. Public Transport RestructuringRestructuring The public transport restructuring main thrust is The public transport restructuring main thrust is

to establish a least cost network with optimal to establish a least cost network with optimal

modes on the main corridors modes on the main corridors reduce burden on reduce burden on

subsidysubsidy

Leads to a more efficient and sustainable systemLeads to a more efficient and sustainable system

Supply and demand data surveyed on all public Supply and demand data surveyed on all public

transport modestransport modes

5. Public Transport 5. Public Transport RestructuringRestructuring Basis for PT O-D matrixBasis for PT O-D matrix

High priority public transport network High priority public transport network output output

Rail emphasisRail emphasis

O-D information plus high priority public transport O-D information plus high priority public transport

network network Emme/2 model Emme/2 model

6. Emme/2 Model Structure6. Emme/2 Model Structure NETWORK• 3 712 km of roadway3 712 km of roadway• 406 km of rail406 km of rail• 330 zones (316 internal, 14 external)330 zones (316 internal, 14 external)• Annotation files imported from GIS databaseAnnotation files imported from GIS database

Emme/2 Emme/2 BaseNetworkBaseNetwork

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Durban CBD

6. Emme/2 Model Structure6. Emme/2 Model StructureDEMOGRAPHICS 1996 census data1996 census data

• Employment and car ownership - separate Employment and car ownership - separate sourcessources

• Prior to 1996 data collected by race and model Prior to 1996 data collected by race and model structured by race e.g. WHBW, BHBWstructured by race e.g. WHBW, BHBW

• Since 1996 data collected by income group - Since 1996 data collected by income group - high, medium, lowhigh, medium, low

• Income grouping used as a proxy for car Income grouping used as a proxy for car ownership and hence PT usageownership and hence PT usage

• This change necessitated a rethink in the This change necessitated a rethink in the structure of the model structure of the model

6. Emme/2 Model Structure6. Emme/2 Model Structure

• Detail is lostDetail is lost• Required simplification in trip generation and Required simplification in trip generation and

trip distribution models in order to cater for trip distribution models in order to cater for changeschanges

• Typical screenlineTypical screenline

DEMOGRAPHICS


Racial classification Racial classification Income classification Income classification Existing parameters as far as possibleExisting parameters as far as possible Simplify modelSimplify model Census data :Census data :• High income High income R72 000/annum R72 000/annum• Medium Income Medium Income R 30 000 - R72 000/annum R 30 000 - R72 000/annum• Low income Low income R0 - R30 000/annum R0 - R30 000/annum

Why income classification ?Why income classification ?

• Trip generation Trip generation income income• Car usage Car usage income income• Improved distribution of HBW tripsImproved distribution of HBW trips

TRIP GENERATION - OVERALL APPROACH

TRIP GENERATION EQUATIONSHOME BASED WORK (HBW) TRIPS - 2 HOUR AM PEAKHOME BASED WORK (HBW) TRIPS - 2 HOUR AM PEAK

ProductionsProductions = 0.60 * Employed residents= 0.60 * Employed residentsAttractionsAttractions = 0.60 * Employment= 0.60 * Employment

NON-WORK (NW) TRIPS - 2 HOUR AM PEAKNON-WORK (NW) TRIPS - 2 HOUR AM PEAKProductionsProductions = 0.05 * (L.Pop+M.Pop + (1.50*H.Pop))= 0.05 * (L.Pop+M.Pop + (1.50*H.Pop))

+ 0.05*(L.Emp + (2.0*M.Emp) + (4.0*H.Emp))+ 0.05*(L.Emp + (2.0*M.Emp) + (4.0*H.Emp))

Attractions Attractions = (0.008 * L.Pop) + (0.024*M.Pop) + (0.039*H.Pop)= (0.008 * L.Pop) + (0.024*M.Pop) + (0.039*H.Pop)(Activity zones)(Activity zones) +( 0.591*M.Emp) + (1.182*H.Emp) +( 0.591*M.Emp) + (1.182*H.Emp)

AttractionsAttractions = (0.008 * L.Pop) + (0.024*M.Pop) + (0.039*H.Pop)= (0.008 * L.Pop) + (0.024*M.Pop) + (0.039*H.Pop)(Other zones)(Other zones) +( 0.117*M.Emp) + (0.234*H.Emp) +( 0.117*M.Emp) + (0.234*H.Emp)

TRUCK TRIPSTRUCK TRIPSProductionsProductions = (0.04*H.Emp) + (0.1*M.Emp)= (0.04*H.Emp) + (0.1*M.Emp)AttractionsAttractions = (0.05*H.Emp) + (0.07*M.Emp) + (0.007*L. Emp)= (0.05*H.Emp) + (0.07*M.Emp) + (0.007*L. Emp)


High correlation High correlation income and car ownership income and car ownership

Modal split at origins based on graphsModal split at origins based on graphs

MODAL SPLIT


Four modes - auto, rail, bus, mini-bus taxiFour modes - auto, rail, bus, mini-bus taxi Auxillary transit mode - walkAuxillary transit mode - walk

Modal Split Curve (HBW Trips)

Modal Split Curve (NW Trips)

TRIP DISTRIBUTION Develop cost matricesDevelop cost matrices– Car > Travel time matrixCar > Travel time matrix– PT > Cost of travelPT > Cost of travel

Both generated in previous assignmentBoth generated in previous assignment Intra-zonal costs added to each matrixIntra-zonal costs added to each matrix The PT trip cost was refined further :The PT trip cost was refined further :– Determine transposed matrixDetermine transposed matrix– Determine minimum of original and transposed Determine minimum of original and transposed

matricesmatrices– This compensated for off peak direction costsThis compensated for off peak direction costs


TRIP DISTRIBUTION Simple gravity model deterrence function applied Simple gravity model deterrence function applied

to these times/costs : F(c) = exp(-c*to these times/costs : F(c) = exp(-c*)) Separate beta value, impedance matrices used for Separate beta value, impedance matrices used for

PT and carsPT and cars Distribution undertaken for four trip typesDistribution undertaken for four trip types– HBW - low incomeHBW - low income– HBW - medium incomeHBW - medium income– HBW - high incomeHBW - high income– NW trips NW trips


TRIP DISTRIBUTION

Distribution MethodDistribution Method– Two dimensional matrix with two input origin Two dimensional matrix with two input origin

matrices (car and PT) and a single destination matrices (car and PT) and a single destination matrixmatrix

– Model distributes trips based on the deterrence Model distributes trips based on the deterrence matrices and relative attractiveness of car/PT matrices and relative attractiveness of car/PT for each destinationfor each destination

– Use of INRO macro - BALMPROD.MACUse of INRO macro - BALMPROD.MAC– Output eight matrices (4 car, 4 PT), combined Output eight matrices (4 car, 4 PT), combined

into two matrices (car, PT), for assignmentinto two matrices (car, PT), for assignment


CALIBRATION PROCESS Iterative process TG, MS, TD, AssIterative process TG, MS, TD, Ass Emphasis in TD phaseEmphasis in TD phase Three tools used in the calibration process :Three tools used in the calibration process :

1. 1. value is inverse of the average (weighted ) value is inverse of the average (weighted ) cost valuecost value

2. Three dimensional balancing with Emme/22. Three dimensional balancing with Emme/2

origin totalsorigin totalsdestination totalsdestination totalstrips crossing screenlines - 11 in totaltrips crossing screenlines - 11 in total


CALIBRATION PROCESS this whole process was automated for the 11 this whole process was automated for the 11

screenlines for car and PTscreenlines for car and PT

results of the 1st 3-D balance using the first results of the 1st 3-D balance using the first screenline was passed onto the second and screenline was passed onto the second and so forthso forth

origins kept same, destinations modifiedorigins kept same, destinations modified

3. DEMANDJ.MAC - adjustment of demand matrix 3. DEMANDJ.MAC - adjustment of demand matrix based on counts (for comparison/calibration based on counts (for comparison/calibration purposes only)purposes only)

final matrices used in assignment not final matrices used in assignment not adjusted in this wayadjusted in this way


Calibration ProcessCalibration Process

ASSIGNMENT

Car assignment first with PT lines pre-loaded as Car assignment first with PT lines pre-loaded as Pcu valuePcu value

PT assignment run second, speed of road based PT assignment run second, speed of road based PT a function of car assignment speedsPT a function of car assignment speeds


7. Results7. Results Reasonably good resultsReasonably good results

Cars 174 link counts RCars 174 link counts R2 2 = 0.921= 0.921Public Transport 22 screenlines RPublic Transport 22 screenlines R2 2 = 0.984= 0.984Public Transport (buses) 22 screenlinesPublic Transport (buses) 22 screenlines

RR2 2 = 0.890= 0.890Public Transport (mini-bus taxi) 22 screenlines Public Transport (mini-bus taxi) 22 screenlines

RR2 2 = 0.826= 0.826Public Transport (rail) 22 screenlines RPublic Transport (rail) 22 screenlines R2 2 = 0.950= 0.950

Public Transport at ScreenlinesPublic Transport at Screenlines

Link ScattergramLink Scattergram

8. Using Emme/2 in a 8. Using Emme/2 in a Predictive ModePredictive Mode Simulate future scenariosSimulate future scenarios Simple trend projections to various intervention policiesSimple trend projections to various intervention policies Emphasis on public transport enhancementEmphasis on public transport enhancement Main areas of influenceMain areas of influence• influencing abnormal trip length frequency distribution (travel distances)influencing abnormal trip length frequency distribution (travel distances)• by incorporating land use strategiesby incorporating land use strategies• bottleneck eliminationbottleneck elimination

8. Using Emme/2 in a 8. Using Emme/2 in a Predictive ModePredictive Mode

• TDM measuresTDM measures• rationalising PT network - using operating costs rationalising PT network - using operating costs

and fare income as a measure of improvementand fare income as a measure of improvement

Use of PT 57% now Use of PT 57% now 80% target80% target

Refinement andRefinement and

Extension of Extension of PT networkPT network

Future demographicsFuture demographics2.6m - 2.9m2.6m - 2.9m

AIDSAIDS

Existing Trip Length Frequency Existing Trip Length Frequency DistributionDistribution

Preferred Trip Length Frequency Preferred Trip Length Frequency DistributionDistribution

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Proposed Proposed Nodes and Nodes and CorridorsCorridors

City of DurbanCity of Durban

9. Concluding Remarks9. Concluding Remarks Use of Emme/2 has been the backbone in terms of Use of Emme/2 has been the backbone in terms of

determining the HPPTNdetermining the HPPTN Model simplified to replicate current transport Model simplified to replicate current transport

situationsituation In a firm position to test land use strategiesIn a firm position to test land use strategies In a position to influence outcomes In a position to influence outcomes Monitoring of particular parameters within Monitoring of particular parameters within

Emme/2 is now easily achievableEmme/2 is now easily achievable Main tool in developing long range and short term Main tool in developing long range and short term

plans for the Cityplans for the City

City of DurbanCity of Durban

2nd asian emme/2 users conference hong kong november 2000

Documents

city b

b area

subsidy b

containersannum b

cars b

b population

city slide

locality slide