29 October 2015 The full report is available from http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares

Summary of key issues • During the week ending 28 October 2015, rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres was recorded across

parts of northern and central Western Australia, south-eastern Queensland, areas of eastern and central New South Wales, and eastern Victoria.

• Maximum and minimum temperatures were generally above average across much of Australia during the week ending 27 October 2015.

• The November 2015 rainfall outlook indicates that below average rainfall is likely in across much of eastern Australia, particularly in northern Australia. Across much of Western Australia and western areas of South Australia and the Northern Territory above average rainfall is more likely.

• The rainfall outlook for November 2015 to January 2016 indicates that above average rainfall is likely across south west Western Australia, most of South Australia and the Northern Territory and south west Queensland. Below average rainfall is likely are parts of south-eastern and northern Australia

• The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres is likely across large areas of southern Australia, parts of southern Queensland and in isolated areas of northern Western Australia and the Northern Territory.

• The strong 2015 El Niño event in the Pacific and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently dominating climate conditions across those countries that border the Pacific and Indian oceans, including Australia. All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the current strong El Niño event is likely to persist until the end of 2015, before a marked decline during the first quarter of 2016.

• Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 28 October 2015 by 138 gigalitres (GL) and are at 45 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 3 967 GL less than at the same time last year.

• The young cattle indicator price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 532 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 23 October 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle indicator price rose by 2 per cent in New South Wales and Victoria to average 525 cents a kilogram and 540 cents a kilogram, respectively.

• The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 492 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 23 October 2015, 7 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price increased by: 7 per cent in New South Wales to average 516 cents a kilogram; 10 per cent in South Australia to average 485 cents a kilogram; and 3 per cent in Western Australia to average 439 cents a kilogram.

• The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$215 a tonne in the week ending 27 October 2015, compared with US$217 a tonne in the previous week.

• The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $285 a tonne in the week ending 28 October 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.

For more information or to subscribe, email ClimateUpdate@agriculture.gov.au

1. Climate 1.1. Rainfall this week During the week ending 28 October 2015, rainfall in excess of 25 millimetres was recorded across parts of northern and central Western Australia, south-eastern Queensland, areas of eastern and central New South Wales, and eastern Victoria. The highest recorded rainfall total was 125 millimetres near Barrington Tops in the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales.

The rainfall analyses and associated maps utilise data contained in the Bureau of Meteorology climate database, the Australian Data Archive for Meteorology (ADAM). The analyses are initially produced automatically from real-time data with limited quality control. They are intended to provide a general overview of rainfall across Australia as quickly as possible after the observations are received.

For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/rainfall/

Rainfall for the week ending 28 October 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 28/10/2015

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1.2. Temperature anomalies this week Maximum temperatures were above average across much of Australia during the week ending 27 October 2015. Parts of Western Australia recorded maximum temperatures between 6 and 10 degrees above average for this time of year. Minimum temperatures were average to above average across much of Australia during the week ending 27 October 2015. Some isolated areas of northern Australia and much of south-western Tasmania recorded below average to average minimum temperatures for this time of year. Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and the minimum from their long-term averages. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information go to http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 27 October 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 28/10/2015

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 27 October 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 28/10/2015

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1.3. National Climate Outlook The rainfall and temperature outlooks presented below show the likelihood, represented as a percentage, of experiencing wetter or drier (and warmer or cooler) than median weather for given outlook period.

Climate outlooks are generated by the Predictive Climate Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical (physics-based) climate model developed by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric research division.

For further information, go to http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/. A strong El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and is very likely to persist into early 2016 but the influence an El Niño event has on Australian rainfall starts to decrease at this time of year.

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a strong El Niño combine to result in decreased rainfall during winter-spring across eastern Australia and parts of the Top End of the Northern Territory. The November outlook generally reflects these climate influences.

Typically an IOD event decays in November or early December as the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean, changing the wind patterns. Once this occurs, the two dominating climate drivers are likely to be El Niño in the Pacific Ocean and the warm waters across the central and southern Indian Ocean, which also may ease the outlook back towards more average climatic condition.

The November 2015 rainfall outlook indicates that below average rainfall is more likely in across parts of eastern and northern Australia. Across much of Western Australia and western areas of South Australia and the Northern Territory above average November rainfall is more likely. Across the remainder of the country there is no strong tendency toward either above or below average rainfall (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 29 October 2015).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall November 2015

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The rainfall outlook for November 2015 to January 2016 indicates that above average rainfall is more likely across south west Western Australia, most of South Australia and the Northern Territory and south west Queensland. However, forecast accuracy is low across parts of this region at this time of year. Below average rainfall is more likely are parts of south-eastern and northern Australia and across the remainder of the country there is no strong tendency toward either above or below average rainfall (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 29 October 2015).

Chance of exceeding the median rainfall November 2015 to January 2016

The November 2015 to January 2016 temperature outlook indicates maximum temperatures are more likely to be above average along the east coast of Australia and in south-west Western Australia. In contrast, parts of northern Western Australia and the Northern Territory are more likely to record below average maximum temperatures (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 29 October 2015).

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature November 2015 to January 2016

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The November 2015 to January 2016 temperature outlook indicates minimum temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, except in parts of tropical north and the far south-east of Australia where it has a roughly equal chance of warmer or colder minimum temperatures (Bureau of Meteorology ‘National Climate Outlook’, 29 October 2015).

Chance of exceeding the median minimum temperature November 2015 to January 2016

1.4. ENSO Wrap-up The strong 2015 El Niño event in the Pacific and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are currently dominating climate conditions across those countries that border the Pacific and Indian oceans, including Australia.

In the central tropical Pacific Ocean, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue to warm, but the rate of warming has declined. All Pacific Ocean SST indices have now been above +1 °C for 11 consecutive weeks, equalling the previous record, with some recent bursts of westerly winds in the tropics meaning that some further warming remains possible.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the current strong El Niño event is likely to persist until the end of 2015, before a marked decline during the first quarter of 2016.

Most international climate models also suggest the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will persist into November, but then decline rapidly once the monsoon trough shifts south, changing wind patterns over the IOD region. So far in October the IOD index has averaged over +1 °C.

El Niño is usually associated with below-average spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above average spring daytime temperatures south of the tropics. A positive IOD typically contributes to below average rainfall, particularly in the southeast of Australia. During summer, El Niño's influence on rainfall decreases, while warmer daytime and night-time temperatures tend to be more likely across the south and east.

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1.5. Eight day rainfall forecast The forecast for the next eight days indicates that rainfall across all States and Territories. Falls in excess of 25 millimetres is likely across large areas of southern Australia, parts of southern Queensland, and in isolated areas of northern Western Australia and the Northern Territory. This rainfall forecast is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to check local forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall (mm) for the period 29 October to 5 November 2015

©Commonwealth of Australia 2015, Australian Bureau of Meteorology Issued: 28/10/2015

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2. Water 2.1. Water availability Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin decreased during the week ending 28 October 2015 by 138 gigalitres (GL) and are at 45 per cent of total capacity. This is 18 percentage points or 3 967 GL less than the same time last year.

Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 29 October 2015 is shown above. The top horizontal (short dash) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (long dash) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage.

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3. Commodities 3.1. Production and commodities • The world wheat indicator price (US No. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$215 a

tonne in the week ending 27 October 2015, compared with US$217 a tonne in the previous week.

• The world coarse grains indicator price (US No. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$175 a tonne in the week ending 28 October 2015, compared with US$169 a tonne in the previous week.

• The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$434 a tonne in the week ending 27 October 2015, compared with US$441 a tonne in the previous week.

• The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US69.4 cents a pound in the week ending 28 October 2015, 1 per cent lower than the previous week.

• The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US14.5 cents a pound in the week ending 28 October 2015, 2 per cent higher than the previous week.

• Data from China Customs indicates that China imported a record 4.9 million tonnes of raw sugar in the 2014–15 season (October to September), 20 per cent higher than the previous season.

• The Australian grain sorghum indicator price (Sydney) was $285 a tonne in the week ending 28 October 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.

• The Australian feed wheat indicator price (General purpose, Sydney) was $288 a tonne in the week ending 28 October 2015, largely unchanged from the previous week.

• The Australian feed barley indicator price (Sydney) was $254 a tonne in the week ending 28 October 2015, 4 per cent lower than the previous week.

• The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) was $568 a tonne in the week ending 26 October 2015, 4 per cent higher than the previous week.

• The young cattle indictor price (330–400 kg live weight C3) averaged 532 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Queensland in the week ending 23 October 2015, 1 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, the young cattle indicator price rose by 2 per cent in both New South Wales and Victoria to average 525 cents a kilogram and 540 cents a kilogram, respectively.

• The lamb indicator price (18–22kg fat score 2–4) averaged 492 cents a kilogram (dressed weight) in Victoria in the week ending 23 October 2015, 7 per cent higher than the previous week. Over the same period, the lamb indicator price increased by: 7 per cent in New South Wales to average 516 cents a kilogram; 10 per cent in South Australia to average 485 cents a kilogram; and 3 per cent in Western Australia to average 439 cents a kilogram.

• The Australian Eastern Market indicator price for wool averaged 1 205 cents a kilogram clean in the week ending 22 October 2015, 3 per cent higher than the previous week. The total number of bales offered at auction was 3 per cent lower than the previous week.

• The wholesale prices of selected fruit generally rose in the week ending 24 October 2015, compared with the previous week. The wholesale prices of banana (cavendish), pineapple (smoothleaf), avocado (hass) and blueberry increased while the prices of strawberry and watermelon (seedless) fell.

• Changes to the wholesale prices of selected vegetables were mixed in the week ending 24 October 2015, compared with the previous week. The wholesale price of bean (round, stringless) increased while the prices of tomato (field gourmet) and lettuce (iceberg) fell.

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3.2. Selected world indicator prices

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3.3. Global Dairy Trade (GDT) weighted average prices

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3.4. Crop indicator prices

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3.5. Livestock indicator prices

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3.6. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices

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4. Data attribution Climate Bureau of Meteorology • Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp

• Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp • Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp • Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp • Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead • Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml • ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

• Soil moisture: Australian Water Availability Project (ABARES; Bureau of Meteorology; CSIRO) www.eoc.csiro.au/awap/

Water New South Wales

• New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/ • New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Primary Industries: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx

Available water determinations register: http://registers.water.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp?selectedRegister=Determination

Queensland • Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au • Seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia

• SA Water: https://www.sawater.com.au/community-and-environment/the-river-murray/river-reports/daily-flow-report

• South Australian Department of Environment, Water and Natural Resources: http://www.environment.sa.gov.au

Victoria

• Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au

Commodities Fruit and vegetables

• Datafresh: http://www.freshstate.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum

• The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs

• Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets

Pigs

• Australian Pork: www.australianpork.com.au

Canola

• Weekly Times: hardcopy

Dairy Global Dairy Trade: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/download-historical-data/

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